10 V May 2022

https://doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.42747
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

Stock Price Prediction and Analysis using Machine

Learning Techniques
Rucha Deshpande1, Divyank Lunkad2, Madhura Kunjir3, Samiksha Ingle4
1, 2, 3, 4
Department of Computer Engineering, Pune Institute of Computer Technology, Pune, India

Abstract: Stock market is one of the most sought-after investment options today. Investing in the stock market has the potential
to multiply people's money in a short period of time, but it also carries many risks. To be successful in the stock market, it is
necessary to conduct extensive research about the market and the forces influencing it. This examination involves a review of
historical stock prices as well as real-time market developments. When deciding the position in the market, investors need to
make an informed choice.
Market-related information may be obtained from a variety of sources, including news articles, stock research websites, apps,
and television channels. However, stock movement prediction by taking into consideration the elements influencing it would
undoubtedly assist investors in making sound decisions. The research area of stock movement prediction has seen numerous
advancements throughout the years. In the domain of machine learning, various methods of stock price prediction have been
introduced.
In this paper, we have discussed different approaches to stock movement prediction based on diverse factors and technical
indicators. We also propose a method for detecting market trends, which is a critical aspect in maintaining long-term market
positions.
Keywords: Machine Learning, Stock Market, Prediction, Classification, Technical Indicators, Trend prediction

I. INTRODUCTION
Financial Research requires extensive data exploration and data analysis. The data that they have to explore is usually unstructured
and not always available at one source. The data becomes redundant when collected from various sources and the information is
often ambiguous and details are insignificant.
A financial research analyst needs to have access to all the data that is insightful as well as relevant to them to make decisions
promptly. Various factors that influence stock performance need to be thoroughly investigated. Stock market prediction is difficult
because of the volatile nature of the market and several factors that directly or indirectly influence the value of stocks. In this paper,
we try to explore the three strategies that have used different machine learning algorithms to find the same output i.e. if the stock
price will rise or fall.
To get a clear picture of the current stock market situation and make a conscientious decision, one has to do a thorough research of
the company's history. It includes fundamental analysis and technical analysis of the company’s stock. This procedure is
complicated and time-consuming. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult for a human to consider all of the factors that influence stock
movements. Investors require a tool that allows them to quickly and easily access the necessary and relevant information without
extracting it manually. All the three approaches described in this paper consider appropriate factors w.r.t. The strategy used and try
to predict the state of stocks in the near future. Presenting the results of all the strategies to the investors can help them make a
deterministic decision.

II. LITERATURE SURVEY

A. Stock Movement Prediction with Financial News using Contextualized Embedding from BERT
BERT also called Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers has used contextualized vector representations of the
news headlines to predict the stock prices. The model has obtained the state-of-the-art result on this stock movement prediction task.
It has proposed a Fine-Tuned Contextualized-Embedding Recurrent Neural Network (FT-CE-RNN) to predict the stock price
movement based on the headlines. The FT-CE-RNN model is trained using Bloomberg News dataset and it generates contextualized
embeddings with domain-specific knowledge using all the useful hidden vectors from the BERT model. The accuracy obtained
using the FT-CE-RNN model is 74.5%.

©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2092
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

B. Stock Market Analysis: A Review and Taxonomy of Prediction Techniques

A concise review of stock markets and taxonomy of stock market prediction methods have been provided in this paper. The paper
has focused on some of the research achievements in stock analysis and prediction. It has discussed technical, fundamental, short-
and long-term approaches used for stock analysis. The paper has looked upon the research in the past, but mainly focused on
modern techniques, highlighting some of the main challenges the field poses and recent achievements for stock analysis and
prediction.

C. Stock Prediction Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis

The paper has applied sentiment analysis and machine learning principles to find the correlation between ”public sentiment”
and ”market sentiment”. It has used Twitter data to predict public mood and has hence used the predicted mood and previous days’
DJIA values to predict the stock market movements. In order to test the results, it has proposed a new cross-validation method for
financial data and obtained 75.56% accuracy using Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks (SOFNN) on Twitter feeds and DJIA. It
has also implemented a naive portfolio management strategy based on the predicted values. This work is based on Bollen et al’s
famous paper which predicted the same with 87% accuracy.

D. Deep Learning for Event-Driven Stock Prediction

This paper has proposed a deep learning method for event-driven stock market prediction. First, events have been extracted from
news text and represented as dense vectors, trained using a novel neural tensor network. Second, a deep convolutional neural
network has been used to model both short-term and long-term influences of events on stock price movements. Experimental results
show that the model can achieve nearly 6 percent improvements in S&P 500 index prediction and individual stock prediction,
respectively, compared to state-of-the-art baseline methods. In addition, market simulation results show that the system is more
capable of making profits than previously reported systems trained on S&P 500 stock historical data.

E. A LSTM model using Risk Estimation loss function for stock trades in market
The LSTM model using the Risk Estimation loss function has used the effective representations that are extracted from historical
data. Then a neural network based on LSTM has been constructed to learn useful knowledge to direct the trading behaviors. A loss
function has elaborately been designed to ensure the network optimizes the profit and minimizes the risk. Finally, according to the
predictions of this neural network, buying and selling plans are carried out.The model has used the past 30-day data to train itself
and then predict the next day's closing values. The feature window is of 30 days and such 30 days feature vectors are being used to
train the model. The accuracy obtained using the above model is 54%.

III. METHODOLOGIES
Stock prices keep on continuously changing and predicting them is a complex task. We have proposed three methodologies, each
dependent on the stock’s closing price for predicting the future value. Calculating the exact price of the next day is never possible so
we have tried to predict whether a stock will go high or low on the next day through these strategies.

A. One-Day Ahead Strategy

Stock market price trend prediction is always a popular issue for academics from both financial and technological areas since the
stock market is one of the primary topics in which investors are interested. Our goal in this study is to develop a cutting-edge price
trend prediction model that focuses on short-term price trend prediction. The primary aim of this binary model is to predict the
movement of stocks on the next day. Every stock can be categorized in a sector such as IT, Banks, etc. For this model, we need the
returns, sentiment score and volume of the stock and the respective sector each day. Every day, a web crawler is triggered, which
gathers all the news of a stock, and then a sentiment model classifies it as positive or negative news. The mathematical model is as
follows:
Rt = log(Pt+1 / Pt)
St = (Positive Newst - Negative Newst) / (Positive Newst + Negative Newst)

Feature vector = [xt−2, xt−1, xt]

xt is vector of : [Rt, Rt0, St, St0 , Vt, Vt0 ]

©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2093
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

where,
t = day
Rt = return of a company for day ‘t’
Rt0 = overall return for day ‘t’ (average of returns of all stocks of the sector)
St = sentiment of a company for day ‘t’
St0 = overall sentiment for day ‘t’ (average of the sentiment of all stocks of the sector)
Vt = volume of a company for day ‘t’
Vt0 = overall volume for day ‘t’ (sum of volumes of all stocks of the sector)
Pt = closing price of day ‘t’

Label: sign(output)
Output: high or low
High represents that the price will rise the next day.
Low represents that the price will fall the next day.

B. Five-Day Ahead Strategy

The previous strategy does not help in predicting the movement of a stock in the immediate week period. The previous model works
on numerical data as well as sentiment data. But there is another important feature, which every trader uses - MarketIndicators.
Market indicators are quantitative in nature and aim to anticipate market movements by interpreting stock or financial index data.
Market indicators are a type of technical indicator that is made up of formulae and ratios. They help investors make better investing
and trading decisions. This model uses indicators to predict for a longer duration. To calculate the indicators, we have used an open-
source library named Ta-Lib. This is a ternary classification model, with the possible outputs being 1,0 and -1. 1 indicates that the
closing price of the stocks is greater than today’s closing price in at least 4 out of the next 5 days. -1 indicates that the closing price
of the stocks is lower than today’s closing price in at least 4 out of the next 5 days. Otherwise, it is 0.

Feature vector = [
Simple_moving_average (SMA),
Exponential_moving_average (EMA),
Relative_strength_index (RSI),
Standard_deviation (SD),
Average_directional_index (ADI),
Stochastic_oscillator (SO),
Moving_average_convergence_divergence (MACD),
Bollinger_bands (BB)
]

Output = 1,0 or -1

C. Trade Max Strategy

An attempt to predict the next day's prices using the data of the past 30 days has been made in this model called Trade Max. The
author has designed a solution that uses the historical data of the stock and converts it into useful features for the model. These
features are then trained on the Random Forest Model to predict for the next day. Finally buying and selling of the stocks could be
carried out accordingly.
The features for the model include 12 different variables namely open prices, high prices, low prices, close prices, the volume of the
stock, MACD, RSI, BOLL, MA, VMA, Cross price, Price Volume. All the above 12 variables are stored in a feature array and
passed on to the model. This data was collected id of the past 30 days. The open, high, low, and close prices and volume of the stock
are being crawled from the National Stock Exchange (NSE). For the other variables, the ‘Talib’ library is used. The Talib library
uses the closing prices array to calculate the MACD data. Similarly, the other feature variables are calculated by using the Talib
library which in turn uses the open/high/low/close/volume data that has been extracted from NSE.

©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2094
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

Feature vector = [
Open_price (OROCP),
High_price (HROCP),
Low_price (LROCP),
Close_price (ROCP),
Volume,
Moving_average_convergence_divergence (MACD),
Relative_strength_index (RSI),
BOLL,
Moving_average (MA),
Volume_moving_average (VMA),
Cross_price,
Price_volume
]

Output : 0 and 1

The label for the model is calculated using the closing prices. For a 30 day data as feature input the 29th, 30th and 31st day’s closing
prices are used for calculating the label. A decay variable is used which decays the value of the label for every iteration. The label
value is a real number and it is then converted into binary data. A binary classifier function is used to generate the 0 and 1
combination of the label. If the label value is greater than or equal to 0 then the label is classified as ‘1’ meaning the value tomorrow
will increase and if the value of the label is less than 0 then it is classified as ‘0’ meaning the value tomorrow will decrease.
The Random Forest Model is then fed with the features array and the binary classified label value for 30 days and the model predicts
for 31st day. The output of the model is a binary value. If the output is 1 meaning the value tomorrow will increase and if it is 0
meaning the value tomorrow will decrease.

D. Trend Prediction
When analyzing the stock market, it is crucial to detect market regimes. Investing entails buying and selling stocks for long-term
gains, which necessitates understanding the state of the market over a longer period of time. Existing solutions take various
approaches, such as identifying market regimes from equity data using a Hidden Markov Model, or using a correlation matrix and
clustering windows on asset returns and factor returns. However, in order to include the effects of trend in the methodologies
outlined above, we attempted to forecast the trend as a variable. In this section, we have discussed a method to detect the current
trend in the market by using a ‘trend variable’.

The formula to calculate the Trend Variable for predicting the state of the market is as follows:

= ( )
∑ ( )
Where,
Pt → Closing price on day ’t’
→ Trend variable on day ‘t’, based on the behaviour on previous ‘d’ days
d = {2, 3, 5, 10}
0 → pure sideways
1 → pure trend

We predicted the trend variable for the next 5 days using the ARMA model in time series. The training data has trend variable
values of the previous 40 days. Based on these values, the trend variables for the next 5 days are predicted.

©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2095
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

The following graph shows 5-day trend variable over a period of 2 years

Fig. 1 Distribution of Trend Variable

The following graph shows 5-day trend prediction using past 40-day data

Fig. 2 Trend Prediction results for COFORGE.NS

IV. RESULTS
The one-day ahead, five-day ahead, and Trade Max models all aid in the prediction of stock values based on their various
methodologies. Predictions derived from the approaches described above can be assessed in a variety of ways. The one-day ahead
forecast provides investors with a quick overview of predicted stock movement on the next day, whilst the five-day ahead prediction
provides an overall perspective of projected stock movement over a longer period of time. The trade max prediction is a more
extensive study that employs technical indicators to make forecasts, but it requires more data than the other two methods.

Below is the accuracy table of the 3 strategies:

TABLE I. Results
Sr. No. Model Accuracy

1. One-Day Ahead Prediction 58%

2. Five-Day Ahead Prediction 55%

3. Trade Max Prediction 68%

©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2096
 International Journal for Research in Applied Science & Engineering Technology (IJRASET)
ISSN: 2321-9653; IC Value: 45.98; SJ Impact Factor: 7.538
Volume 10 Issue V May 2022- Available at www.ijraset.com

We experimented with the one-day ahead model by investing virtual money in every stock and used the prediction to buy or sell the
stocks. The profit and loss (P&L) results are as followed:

V. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we have discussed three strategies for predicting stock price movement for the next trading day using data from the
previous days. We have also provided a method for detecting existing market trends and anticipated changes in order to determine
market position. These strategies can further be implemented to maintain a user portfolio and provide real-time suggestions for
investing. Unlike many other ways of stock price prediction that study the historical data, our methods take into account the
sentiment analysis of real-time events for the company to enhance predictions. This can help a user to make informed and intelligent
decisions. The real-time events analyzed in this study are limited to news articles and tweets about the company. The methods of
sentiment calculation are out of the scope of this paper.

VI. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
We would like to thank Dr. Aniruddha Pant, CEO of AlgoAnalytics Pvt. Ltd., for his constant guidance and enthusiastic support
during our research.
We would also like to thank Mrs. A. G. Phakatkar, Assistant Professor at PICT, and our project guide, for her timely advice and
detailed research insights.

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©IJRASET: All Rights are Reserved | SJ Impact Factor 7.538 | ISRA Journal Impact Factor 7.894 | 2097