Climate Security Challenges in

South Florida
Fact Sheet
Adam Despang - June 2022

Florida plays an essential role in U.S. National Security. It is home to three Combatant Command
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headquarters and more than 20 military bases from all military branches. In 2020, defense spending
in Florida supported nearly 145,000 jobs and generated almost $17 billion in gross regional product.

South Florida’s Role in U.S. National Security

Of note, the South Florida region is home to:

U.S. Southern Command Headquarters (USSOUTHCOM) Homestead Air Reserve Base

USSOUTHCOM – Provides contingency planning, operations, and security cooperation in
its assigned Area of Responsibility which includes Central America, South America, and The
Caribbean (except U.S. commonwealths, territories, and possessions).
482nd Fighter Wing of the Air Force Reserve – Provides combat-ready F-16 fighter jets
capable of worldwide deployment on short notice.
U.S. Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock Division South Florida Ocean Measurement
Facility – Performs electromagnetic signature tests of Navy assets by providing the ability to
monitor surface ship, submarine, and remote vehicle signatures in the near-shore environment.
U.S. Army Garrison-Miami – Part of the U.S. Army’s Installation Command, has a civilian
workforce that supports the Service and Family Members assigned to SOUTHCOM.
U.S. Coast Guard 7th District Headquarters – Responsible for Coast Guard activities
throughout a 1.7 million square mile area, including Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia, South
Carolina, and 34 foreign nations and territories.
Naval Air Station Key West – Provides an extensive air-to-air training venue for transient
tactical aviation squadrons. It is home to the Joint Interagency Task Force - South, whose mission
is to provide the necessary operations for the detection, monitoring, and deterrence of drug
smuggling operations. Major tenants also include the Army Special Forces Underwater
Operations School.

CLIMATE-RELATED THREATS TO THE REGION

South Florida is vulnerable to various climate-related threats such as flooding from sea level rise,
extreme heat, and worsening storms. Homestead Air Reserve base was listed by a 2019 Senate Armed
Service Committee hearing in the top 10 Air Force bases most at risk to impacts of climate change.2

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Sea Level Rise, Inland Flooding, and Water Contamination
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By 2050 Florida’s inland flooding threat is projected to see the greatest increase of all states. Florida
currently has around 3.5 million people within the 100-year coastal flood plain—by 2050, an
additional 1.1 million Floridians will also be at risk. Second, saltwater intrusion will contaminate
aquifers, causing them to become brackish and undrinkable. Thirdly, wastewater and stormwater
infrastructure may render water management systems in the region ineffective. Some estimates show
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much of South Florida becoming completely uninhabitable if rapid action is not taken.

Extreme Heat and Public Health

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The Union of Concerned Scientists warns that Florida is “in the bulls-eye” for extreme heat.
Floridians already experience an average of 25 dangerous heat days each year—by mid-century, that
could increase to 130 days, more than any other state.8 This severely impacts military readiness and
national security as extreme heat makes training outdoors for extended periods difficult and creates
unsafe conditions for operating aircraft.

Worsening Hurricanes that Exacerbate Other Risks

The threat from hurricanes comes in two forms—extreme rainfall and high winds. Hurricanes derive
energy from warm ocean water, and sea temperatures are rising approximately 0.13°F per decade.
Warmer air holds more moisture, leading to more rain, more flooding, and more damage. There is
scientific evidence that climate change could be weakening the atmospheric currents that move
weather systems along, which means 150+ mph winds, storm surges, and rain will stall in one place,
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as Hurricane Dorian did over the Bahamas in 2019. As such, the storms hitting Florida could move
slower and take twice as long to break apart, increasing the potential and scope of wind and flood
damage to military infrastructure, communities, and assets.

RESILIENCE EFFORTS AND CLIMATE SOLUTIONS

A Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact study suggests that if adaptation projects are
implemented now, Miami-Dade County can avoid $3.2 billion in structural losses regionally from
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tidal inundation in 2040. Adaptation can also “protect $7.7 million in tax revenue losses from 10-
year storm events and $385 million in tax revenue from daily tidal inundation by 2070.” Mitigating
the worst climate impacts predicted will require rapid decarbonization.

To better understand the risks and vulnerabilities facing South Florida defense communities, the U.S.
DoD Office of Local Defense Community Cooperation (OLDCC) recently awarded the South Florida
Regional Planning Council funding through the Military Installation Sustainability program to
conduct a Military Installation Resilience Review.12 This review will examine the long-term resilience
and sustainability of the four key military installations in the region.

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FEDERAL PROGRAMS–CLIMATE MITIGATION & RESILIENCE
This list provides examples of programs available to help address climate change. Some of these
programs are available to military installations while others are only open to communities. The
funding provided by each program is helpful but insufficient.

The investment needed to catch up to years of deferred maintenance and to be ready for storms as
strong as 2018’s Hurricane Michael will be costly, but nowhere near the expense the DoD is likely to
incur if the U.S. takes a slow or reactive approach to climate change. The programs need expansion.

Military Installation Sustainability – $12 mil/FY to identify the risks, hazards, and vulnerabilities
of concern related to the military’s ability to carry out its missions on the base that could be mitigated
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through investments and solutions outside of the fence line in the community.

Defense Community Infrastructure Program – $50 mil/FY is available to empower communities

that surround military installations to strengthen operational readiness by building or strengthening
vital community infrastructure (roads, schools, etc.).14

Flood Mitigation Assistance – $200 mil/FY directed to flood prone areas. Provides funding to states,
local communities, federally recognized tribes, and territories. Funds can also be used for projects
that reduce or eliminate the risk of repetitive flood damage to buildings insured by the National Flood
Insurance Program. 15

National Coastal Resilience Fund – $34 mil/FY for flood protection for coastal communities
through green infrastructure. Restored coastal ecosystems provide valuable habitats for fish and
wildlife. These same wetlands, dunes, and coral reefs also offer flood protection for coastal
communities by lessening wave energy and absorbing excess waters.16

Sentinel Landscape Program – $60 mil/FY for land acquisition to advance sustainable land
practices around bases and to strengthen military readiness, conserve natural resources, bolster
agricultural and forestry economies, and increase climate change resilience.17

Defense Access Road Program – $20 mil/FY for public highway improvements. DAR empowers
communities to mitigate risks to infrastructure posed by recurrent flooding and sea-level fluctuation
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when continued access to a military installation has been impacted.

Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities – $500 mil/FY for hazard prone areas.
Supports communities through capability- and capacity-building to encourage and enable innovation,
promote partnerships, and enable large projects.19

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ENDNOTES
1. Adam Despang, Katherine Seevers, and Adam VanGorder, “Perspective – National Security Implications of Climate
Change in Florida.” American Security Project, March 16, 2021. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/p
erspective-national-security-implications-of-climate-change-in-florida/.
2. “Background Paper on Top 10 Air Force Bases at Risk of Weather Impacts,” n.d. https://climateandsecurity.fi
les.wordpress.com/2019/06/air-force-input-10-installations-most-impacted-by-climate-change-1.pdf.
3. “States At Risk America's Preparedness Report Card Florida,” States At Risk, n.d. http://assets.statesatrisk.org/sum
maries/Florida_report.pdf.
4. Elizabeth Rush, “Rising Seas: 'Florida Is about to Be Wiped off the Map',” The Guardian, Guardian News and
Media, June 26, 2018. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/26/rising-seas-florida-climate-change-
elizabeth-rush?msclkid=ea983629d00a11ecadaf2e5bd91a400a.
5. “NOAA Logo Sea Level Rise Viewer,” https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/7/9099829.321057007
/3017235.659785827/14/satellite/41/0.8/2100/high/midAccretion.
6. Kristina Dahl and Rachel Licker, “Too Hot to Work,” Union of Concerned Scientists, August 2021.
https://ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/Too%20Hot%20to%20Work_8-13.pdf
7. Laura Cassels, “Scientific Report Warns of Climate-Induced Extreme Heat, 'Florida Is in the Bullseye',” Florida
Phoenix, September 3, 2021. https://floridaphoenix.com/2021/09/03/scientific-report-warns-of-climate-induced-
extreme-heat-florida-is-in-the-bullseye/.
8. “Military Bases at Risk from Extreme Heat,” Union of Concerned Scientists, n.d.
https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=e4e9082a1ec343c794d27f3e12dd006d&entry=6.
9. Adam Despang, Katherine Seevers, and Adam VanGorder, “Perspective – National Security Implications of Climate
Change in Florida,” American Security Project, 2021. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/perspective-national-
security-implications-of-climate-change-in-florida/.
10. Alec Bogdanoff and Leah Sheppard, “The Business Case for Resilience in Southeast Florida,” Urban Land Institute,
2020. https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/The-Business-Case-for-Resilience-in-
Southeast-Florida_reduced.pdf.
11. “Sea Level Rise and Flooding,” Miami-Dade County, 2022.
https://www.miamidade.gov/global/economy/resilience/sea-level-rise-flooding.page.
12. “South Florida Military Installation Resilience Review,” South Florida Regional Planning Council, January 25,
2022. https://sfregionalcouncil.org/south-florida-military-installation-resilience-review/.
13. U.S. Department of Defense, “Military Installation Sustainability,” https://oldcc.gov/our-programs/military-
installation-sustainability.
14. U.S. Department of Defense, “Defense Community Infrastructure Pilot (DCIP) Program,” https://oldcc.gov/defense-
community-infrastructure-program-dcip.
15. Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Grant,”
https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/floods.
16. NOAA Office for Coastal Management, “National Coastal Resilience Fund,” https://coast.noaa.gov/resilience-
grant/.
17. “The Sentinel Landscapes Partnership,” Sentinel Landscapes, https://sentinellandscapes.org/.
18. U.S. Department of Transportation, “Defense Access Road Program (DAR),” https://highways.dot.gov/federal-
lands/programs/defense.
19. Federal Emergency Management Agency, “Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities.” FEMA,
https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation/building-resilient-infrastructure-communities.