Climate Change Vulnerability

and Adaptation
Dr. Rashmi Rani Anand
Assistant Professor, SBSC
Course Objectives:
1. Various dimensions of climate change and adaptability.
2. Detailed analysis of vulnerability and its impacts.
3. Understanding of the concept of mitigation and planning.
Learning Outcome:
1. Detailed exposure of climate change and related issues.
2. In-depth knowledge of vulnerability of flora and fauna.
3. Understanding the impact of climate change and its planning.
Course Content:
1. Climate Change: Understanding Climate Change; Green House
Gases and Global Warming; Global Climatic Assessment- IPCC
2. Climate Change and Vulnerability: Physical Vulnerability; Economic
Vulnerability; Social Vulnerability
3. Impact of Climate Change: Agriculture and Water; Flora and Fauna;
Human Health
4. Adaptation and Mitigation: Global Initiatives with Particular
Reference to South Asia.
5. The Climate Change Policy Framework: Global Initiatives UNFCCC
and COPs; National and Local Action Plan on Climate Change
Why Study Climate Change
• Climate Change is a reality of our times

• Geography studies how humans impact their environment as much as how

• environment impacts humans

• An issue where Geographers can make a change

• Understand relevant factors

• Devise mitigation methods (mitigating global warming as well as its impact on

• vulnerable communities)

• Shaping policy
• A National Commitment

• Hon’ble Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, in his speech at

• COP26 stated India’s five point resolution for climate action:

• Bring its non-fossil based energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030

• By 2030, fulfil 50% of its energy requirement through renewable

energy

• Cut down its net projected carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes till
2030
 UNIT 1
• Climate Change: Understanding Climate Change; Green House Gases and
Global Warming; Global Climatic Assessment- IPCC
• Is our climate changing?
• 1. yes
• 2. No
• How much of climate change is due to human activities
• 1. 0-10 %
• 2. 10-50 %
• 3. over 50%
Small movie on climate change
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-D_Np-3dVBQ
Some facts
• The amount of energy required to heat up earths atmosphere is =240
watts per square metre.
• Or
• 4 watts per square metre, which is about 2 % of the energy from the
sun. o.5 % pf temperature change will be 1.5 degree Celsius.
• Earths average temperature is 15 degree celcius.
• One assumption is that the only way the planet cools is by emission of
infrared radiation and if that happens then a thing called the Stefan-
Boltzman equation applies.
Climate systems: how the atmosphere interacts with the oceans, ice sheets, land masses and vegetation. These different
interactions create a climate system. And these interactions as well as the composition of the atmosphere itself create a very
complex system
• Earth’s climate is not stable
• Human activities have a strong effect on
climate
• The idea that we are altering climate is based
on much more than complex global models.
COMPONENTS OF CLIMATE SYSTEM:
THROUGH INTERACTION
• Components of climate
system:The United Nation
Framework convention on
climate change defined the
climate system as the totality of
the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere and geosphere and
their interactions (McGuffie and
Henderson-Sellers, 2005)
WHAT IS CLIMATE? What is CHANGE?
• Climate change is a significant variation of average weather conditions i.e conditions
becoming warmer, wetter or drier- over sevral decades or more.
• So any change in the long term condition is known as climate change.
• Most often “ climate change” and “global warming” are often used interchangeably.
• Global warming is just a subset of global warming.
• The person who is credited as the real visionary in climate change science was a
Swedish chemist, Svante Arrenius.
• Defining Climate Change and Variability: Climate change is the variation in either
mean state of the climate or in its variables persisting for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. It includes temperature increase (global warming),
changes in precipitation pattern, sea level rise and increased frequencies of extreme
weather events. Further, climate change follows a specific pattern of change in
climate or its variables over the time. On the other hand, Climatic variability refers to
sudden and discontinuous seasonal or monthly or periodic changes in climate or its
components without showing any specific trend of temporal change (IPCC, 2013)
Climate Change Measurement
• Earths orbiting satellites, remote meteorological stations and ocean
buoys are used to monitor present day weather and climate, but its
paleoclimatology data from the natural sources like ice cores, tree
rings, corals and oceans and lake sediments that have enabled
scientists to extend the earth’s climatic records back millions of years.
• These records provide a comprehensive look at the long term changes
in the earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land surface and cryosphere
(frozen water systems). Scientists then feed this data into
sophisticated climate models that predict future climate trend with
impressive accuracy.
• What are the various reasons why climate changes
• What are the different time scales at which climate changes
• How the future evolve
• What do we need to know about the past climate changes
• How the past climates changes and how do we know about past climate
changes
• What are the kinds of evidences we collect for the past climate changes
• And what are those time scales
• How we can make climate models based on numerical data?
• How climate has changed over the past 150 to 200 years since industrial
revolution began
• Where we are headed and what are the kinds of things that have already
happened in the time period since industrial revolution started.
How our climate been changing? INDICATORS
• Oceans
• Increase in sea level: about 3mm per year
• Over 50 % due to thermal expansion
• Remaining part due to melting cryosphere
• Ocean acidification: oceans have become acidic. 0.1ph units more
acidic due to additional co2 in atmosphere.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sqdyEpklFU
cryosphere
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined by 2.7 % per decade
• Area of permafrost decreased by 7 %

• Precipitation Patterns
• It has changed. Wetter in eastern N and S America, N Europe and N
and central Asia
• Dryer in Sahel, Mediterranean, S. Australia, SE Asia
• More frequent floods and droughts.
Human history do have a strong effect on climate.
What causes climate change?
• Changes in the Heat
Budget
• A variety of factors,
both natural and
human can influence
the earth’s climate
system
Climate change Natural factors
• Large, continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere have grown and
retreated many times in the past. They are called as “ Glacial Period” or “ Ice
Age”and times without ice sheets as “interglacial periods”.
• Ice Age = Glaciation
• Intergalcial Period= Melting of the ice
So this melting and freezing of the ice has been happening for quite a long period
in the natural course. The most recent glacial period occurred between about
120,000 and 11,500 years ago. Since then, Earth has been in an interglacial period
called the Holocene.
Glacial periods are colder, dustier and generally drier than interglacial periods.
These glacial- interglacial cycles are apparent in many marine and terrestrial
paleoclimate records from all around the world.
• So at present since it is interglacial period= melting of ice is normal
• So what is the worry?
Natural causes of Climate Change
• As we all know, the earth has gone through warm and cool phases in
the past, and long before humans were around.
• Forces that contribute to climate change include:
• 1. Sun’s intensity: sunspot cycles,
• 1.1 Earth-Sun relationship: (Milankovitch cycles)
• 1.2 geological (tectonism-continental drift, volcanism)
• 2. volcanic eruptions
• 3. changes in naturally occurring green house gas concentrations.
Reasons why we need to worry are:
• Meteorological records indicate that Earths atmosphere is getting
warmer since the mid-20th century at very faster rate than ever
before which cannot be explained by natural cause alone. According
to NASA, these natural causes are still in play today, but their
influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid
warming seen in recent decades.
Anthropogenic Factors of climate change
• Green House Gasses: increases emissions of
agricultural methane, industry and
transportation

• Deforestation (Amazon forest)

• Albedo Alteration (construction, land use
change)
• Wetlands reclamation
• Global warming
• Aerosols – affect transmission and absorption
of solar and infrared radiation
• Feedback processes:
• Positive= amplifying
• Negative=stabalising
ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Change in
climate over the last 100 years predominantly by HUMANS
• Green house gasses
• 99 % of our atmosphere is nitrogen, oxygen and argon and that is completely transparent to the
visible and infrared radiation. So most of the time it goes out of the atmospheric window. Its
actually crucial i.e it is only 1% of our atmosphere that actually makes a difference. However, it
has to be noted that cardon dioxide is not a small amount in that 1 %.
• The green hose gasses acts as blanket on planet earth and warms up the climate.
• One can calculate the change in the energy balance of the earth an increase, like doubling in co2
will make. Using various climate models we know that co2 will change the energy balance of the
planet by about 4 watts per square metre.
• Green house gasses emitted by us are the leading causes of the earth’s rapidly changing climate.
Greenhouse gasses play an important role in keeping warm enough to inhabit. But the amount of
these gasses in our atmosphere has skyrocketed in recent decades.
• According to the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC), concentration of carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides “ have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last
800,000 years’.
• Atmosphere’s share co2 has increases 40 % since preindustrial times.
• Reduction of carbon sinks
• GREEN HOUSE EFFECT: naturally occurring phenomena that blankets the earth’s lower
atmosphere and warms up, maintaining temperature to survive. Green house gasses plays
an important role in cooling and warming.
Since the Earth’s surface temperature has been relatively constant over many centuries, the
incoming solar shortwave radiation (SWR) must be nearly in balance with outgoing longwave
radiation (LWR). About half of SWR is absorbed by the Earth’s surface. About 30% of SWR is
reflected back to space and 20% of SWR is absorbed in the atmosphere. The LWR emitted
from the Earth’s surface is largely absorbed by radiatively active gases like water vapour,
carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases. The downward directed
component of this LWR heats the lower atmosphere and this process is popularly called
greenhouse effect (IPCC, 2013).
• GREEN HOUSE GASSES: carbon dioxide, water vapour,

• CLIMATE FORCINGS
• GLOBAL WARMING POTENITALS
• GLACIERS
• CHAIN OF THE EVENTS
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
Composition of Atmosphere
Composition of Atmosphere
• Oxygen: is chemically very active, combining readily with other elements in the process
of oxidation. Fuel combustion is a rapid form of oxidation, while certain types of rock
decay (weathering) are very slow forms of oxidation. Living tissues require oxygen to
convert foods into energy.
• It is very essential for the survival of many of the living organisms of this planet. It is
chemically very active gas. It is combined with several other elements and forms varied
compounds. Oxygen is vital for combustion of fuels. When anything burns, oxygen is
consumed and helps in burning that substance. Though oxygen is found beyond 100 km
but it is reasonably in good proportion within 16 km of height. With increasing height,
the amount of oxygen decreases very rapidly. On mountain slope, the available oxygen
for breath is very scanty and the mountaineers are supposed to carry oxygen for them.
• About 99 percent of pure, dry air is nitrogen (about 78 percent by volume) and oxygen
(about 21 percent). These two main component gases of the lower atmosphere are
perfectly mixed, so pure, dry air behaves as if it is a single gas with very definite physical
properties.
• Atmospheric gasses follow LAW OF CONSISTENCY: proportion of all the major
gasses remain consistent in a dry parcel of gass.
• Note: law of consistency is applicable in homosphere (0 to 88kms).
• Dry gass: means absence water vapour
• Composition of Atmosphere
• Nitrogen: Nitrogen gas is a molecule consisting of two nitrogen atoms (N2 ). It
does not easily react with other substances. Soil bacteria do take up very small
amounts of nitrogen, which can be used by plants, but otherwise nitrogen is
largely a “filler,” adding inert bulk to the atmosphere.
• It does not combine freely with other elements, hence, it is termed as neutral
substance. This gas is found beyond a height of 100 km, but its concentration is
below 50 km height from the sea level. This gas is significant for the growth and
reproduction in plants and animals. Certain bacteria in the soil are capable of
converting a very small amount of atmospheric nitrogen into nitrates and fix it to
the soils and water bodies to be consumed by animals and plants. This process is
called as Nitrogen fixation. The nitrogen fixed in the earth’s surface is again
converted and sent back to the atmosphere by bacterial action through a
chemical reaction called denitrification.
• Argon: In terms of percentage, argon is the third largest gas in the
atmosphere constituting 0.934 percent of total dry atmosphere. It is
an inert gas and chemically it is inactive. It is also found in the earth’s
crust and sea water. It is used in electric bulb and fluorescent lights.
VARIABLE GASSES
• Gaseous form of water persent in the atmosphere is called water
vapour. Water vapour present in the atmosphere has made life
possible on the earth Water vapour is the source of all kinds of
precipitation. Its maximum amount in the atmosphere could be upto 4
percent. Maximum amount of water vapour is found in hot-wet
regions and its least amount is found in the dry regions.
• 4% along equator
• 2.3 % along mid latitude
• 4% along poles

• Generally, the amount of water vapour goes on decreasing from low

latitudes to high latitudes. In the same way, its amount goes on
decreasing with increasing altitude. Water vapour reaches in the
atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration. Evaporation takes
place in the oceans, seas, rivers, ponds and lakes while transpiration
takes lace from the plants, trees and living beings.
• The very cold temperature of the tropopause layer at the top of the
troposphere serves as a barrier that causes water vapor to condense
to ice so that it cannot reach altitudes at which it would
photodissociate through the action of intense high energy ultraviolet
radiation. If this happened, the hydrogen produced would escape the
earth’s atmosphere and be lost.
• Water Vapour: Individual water vapor molecules mix freely with other atmospheric
gases, but water vapor can vary highly in concentration. Water vapor usually makes up
less than 1 percent of the atmosphere, but under very warm, moist conditions, as much
as 2 percent of the air can be water vapor. Since it is a good absorber of heat radiation,
like carbon dioxide, it plays a major role in warming the lower atmosphere and
enhancing the greenhouse effect. Another small, but important, constituent .
• Water vapour is small in amount but it is one of the most important part of atmosphere
with respect to the distribution of vegetation and life. Water vapour exists all the time in
the atmosphere but with varying degree of amount depending upon the season
(temperature condition) and the supply of water for evaporation and evapotranspiration.
Air is hardly completely dry. In summer, the water holding capacity of the air is large as
the temperature is high while in winter it is low. Availability of sufficient amount water
on the earth surface or water body in an area witness greater vapour while less
availability of avoidance of the same shows low vapour. Examples may be taken as
equatorial region rich in water bodies (high vapour) and subtropical hot desert region
with less to no water availability (low vapour). Though, vapour and air both are in
gaseous form, their mixing and movement are quite natural but the same homogeneity it
not seen. At any particular point of time, the amount of vapour is not more than four
present of the total volume of atmosphere. It is found in the troposphere only and its
concentration is in the lower level. About 90 percent of the total vapour lays below six
km. It is estimated that the about 50 percent is within two km of height. Water vapour
plays a vital role in keeping the earth warm as it has greenhouse characteristics.
• Carbon dioxide: amounting to about 0.0385 percent. Although
the amount of CO2 is small, it is a very important atmospheric gas
because it absorbs much of the incoming shortwave radiation
from the Sun and outgoing longwave radiation from the Earth.
The greenhouse effect is caused when longwave radiation is
absorbed by CO2 molecules in the lower atmosphere, which
reradiate some of that heat back to the surface. Carbon dioxide is
also used by green plants, which convert it to its chemical
compounds to build up their tissues, organs, and supporting
structures during photosynthesis. It is most vital for the growth of
vegetative life of biosphere.
• It is the fourth abundant gas of the atmosphere. It is densest gas
and found in lower parts. It is found upto a height of about 30 km,
it is concentrated in the lower strata. Its percentage is very low,
i.e., 0.04 percent
• It is transparent to the incoming solar radiation but does not
allow to escape the same. And hence, it is called as greenhouse
gas. It plays a very crucial role in increasing the global
temperature.
• It is also known as variable gas as its amount is dependent upon
the combustion, human activities and vegetative cover of the
planet. The carbon dioxide is reaching to the atmosphere due to
several human activities like energy utilization, transport,
industry, agriculture, waste generation etc. . Apart from these
human induced sources, some natural sources are like plant
respiration and release to air from stored carbon in the rocks
through natural process of denudation. All these are leading to
increase in the atmosphere. This gas is on rise with the
advancement in economic development of the society.
Economically developed countries/ regions are generating big
amount of carbon dioxide gases
• Its residence period is 100 years
• Concentrations of CO2 are higher in the northern hemisphere, presumably due to the
greater land-mass and the stronger anthropogenic activity (e.g. industrial combustion,
biomass burning) than in the southern hemisphere. Due to its moderate lifetime CO is
often used as a tracer for wildfire smog propagation. CO plays a role in the oxidation of
methane.
• Source (added in the atmosphere)
• Anthropogenic activities
• Sinks (remove from the atmosphere)
• atmospheric carbon is locked and stored in geology through the process of chemical
weathering. Chemical weathering is a process where CO 2 dissolves in rainwater
producing weak carbonic acid that reacts with rocks and dissolves it.
• Huge amount of CO2 is dissolving in ocean body making it ACEDIC in nature
• Rocks like carbonate rock, mud rock, Fossil fuels
• Life is made up of huge amount of carbon
• Photosynthesis
• Ozone Gas: The amount of ozone gas in the atmosphere is
very little. It is limited to the ozone layer but it is very
important. It protects the living beings by absorbing the
ultraviolet rays of the sun. If there was no ozone gas in the
atmosphere, there would not have been existence of living
beings and plants on the earth surface.
• Unevenly distributed with height and latitude because of
complex photochemistry involved in its production.
• Ozone:Ozone’s concentration lays in a belt between the
heights of 15 to 50 km of atmosphere. Instead of normal two
atoms of oxygen, ozone has three atoms of oxygen formed
together denoted by O3. It is formed when atmospheric
oxygen molecules are broken by ultraviolet solar radiation. It
may even be formed at the time of electrical discharge during
thunderstorms. This gas is also termed as variable as its
formation and disintegration is dependent upon numerous
activities. Though ozone is very less in quantity (0.00006
percent), this thin layer is very significant for the survival of
living world as it absorbs the dangerous ultraviolet rays and
protects the earth. Neon, helium, krypton, hydrogen, xenon
are other minor gases. Some gases are still extremely less in
quantity, they are termed as trace gases. Important among
them are ammonia, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide,
nitrogen dioxide, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride etc.
CHAPMAN CYCLE
• It relates to the formation and distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. The maximum density
between 16-22 kms which is also refered to as chapman layer. Ozone is created by photochemical
reaction induced by the uv rays which charges the nascent oxygen O.to fuse with molecular
oxygen O2
• Thus 03 is created. Above the equator insolation is permanent, thus creation of ozone is a
constant process by the natural transport. Thus the ozone is transferred towards the poles. Along
the poles o is liberated and thus ozone disintegrate because uv rays are not effective especially
during the polar nights (6 months). The ozone hole is found over Antartica. It refers to thinned out
ozone layer which allows the percolation of UV rays. The ozone hole has developed above the
poles due to:
• 1. natural cause: weak UV rays
• 2. CFC HFC’s produed in developed region, gets transported along poles.
• Stratospheric clouds: which reflect back the UV rays essential for formation of OZONE. At poles
stratospheric clouds are formed which consist of NITRIC OXIDE, which reacts with CFCs to form
chlorine and break the O3. it should be noticed that hole is more prominent in southern pole. And
in northern pole it is known as OZONE DENT.
• Methane: Methane is the also a greenhouse
gas which absorbs the radiation and cause
more temperature of the air. Paddy
cultivation also generates methane in the air.
It is also produced from the wetlands and
waterlogged soils and released in the
atmosphere. Fossil fuel is also a source to
release of methane in the atmosphere. Its
amount in the atmosphere is variable
• Methane are produced in an anerobic i.e
oxygen deficient process by natural wetlands.
Rice cultivation, termites, livestock digestion,
through coal and oil extraction, landfills
decomposition process.
• Residence period 10 years, more potent to
hold uv rays.
• Dust Particles Dust particles are generally found in the lower • Dust Particles: Huge amount of dust particles are available in
layers of the atmosphere. These particles are found in the the lower layer of atmosphere in a suspended form. These
form of sand, smoke and oceanic salt. Sand particle have dust particles are solid substances generated from various
important place in the atmosphere. These dust particles help sources and being carried by winds. Greater velocity wind
in the condensation of water vapour. During condensation have greater amount of dust particles. It is not only a matter
water vapour gets condensed in the form of droplets around of suspended solid particles, they are transported to great
these dust particles. Due to this process the clouds are distances as well. They varies widely in sizes. They may be big
formed and precipitation is made possible. sized suspended only when the drafting ability of the wind is
great, but settles swiftly when the carrying capacity of the
wind is reduced. You must have observed yourselves too
during gales/ storms. Huge number of microscopic dust
particles are suspended even in completely calm air. Dust
particles are variable and it is more during dry seasons as the
soils are loose and easily carried by winds, but reverse is the
case when it is rainy season when they are settled and
compacted. Over the globe, it is less in equatorial and polar
areas while more in subtropical hot desert areas. Minute dust
particles are found several km above the surface while the
coarse sized are abundant near the surface. Microscopic
particles are nuclei for condensation and precipitation and
they have a great importance in this respect.
 • Aerosols: Aerosols are extremely fine-sized solid
particles or liquid droplets which continue to be in
suspended form in gas for very-very long time. They
could be seen when their concentration is more
otherwise they are invisible. Aerosols themselves are
non-gaseous microscopic substance released in the
atmosphere from various sources – natural and human
created. They could be pollen, minute earthly dust, sea
salt, carbon soot from burning fuels, volcanic dust etc.
Human activities also help the aerosols to enter the
atmosphere. Their concentration is more over the
industrial and urban areas. Burning of fossil fuels and
generation of smoke also pump the aerosols in the air.
Therefore, the source of aerosols are both natural as
well as human generated. They are grouped into two –
hygroscopic (moisture absorbing and retaining) and
non-hygroscopic (moisture non-absorbing). Hygroscopic
aerosols form the nuclei for condensation and in this
way, they help in precipitation. From the above
over the oceans or continents, strong variations in the description, it is fairly obvious that our atmosphere is
made up of innumerable minute molecules of several
aerosol distribution exist in space and time. Aerosol gases about which a discussion has been presented
concentrations are high in the lee-side of conurbations above. Apart from that several non-gaseous substances
are also available in the air which are part and parcel of
because of the industrial sources. Wind may take up the atmosphere. They have their own significance and
desert sandfor which in their downwind, silicates are play very essential role for the earth to be a livable
the major contributors to the total aerosol. Aerosols can planet.
be transported over long-distances. In March, Alaska
often experiences layers composed of aerosol of North
European, Siberian or Asian origin.
 So among variable gasses major culprits or green
house gasses causing climate been changing
• Co2
• CH4 :
Green House Effect
Climate Forcing:
• The climate system is a dynamic system in
temporary balance. Changes in the climate system
either due to the natural and anthropogenic
reasons can perturb the Earth’s radiation budget,
resulting in a radiative forcing (RF) that affects
climate. The forcings can be construed broadly as
external and internal forcings (McGuffie and
Henderson-Sellers, 2005; IPCC, 2013). The factors
influencing the climate of our Earth is
diagrammatically presented . External forcing
refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system
causing a change in the climate system. The
galactic variations, orbital forcing and solar forcing
are external forcings (IPCC, 2013). On the other
hand, the processes intrinsic to Earth and its
atmosphere alter climate. These internal forcing
factors include mountain building (orogeny),
distribution of landmasses, volcanic activity,
atmospheric composition, chemistry and surface
reflectivity as presented
GLOBAL WARMING
• Global Temperature Rise: Global temperature is considered as a popular
metric indicating the state of global climate. Global warming is defined as
the increase in the average temperature of earth’s near surface air and
oceans due to the transmission of incoming short wave solar radiation and
the absorption of outgoing long wave terrestrial radiation. The globally
averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated
by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C, over the period 1880 - 2012
(Figure 3a). Between 1906 and 2005, the global climate system was
observed by 0.74°C. The graph showing the influence of natural and human
factors on global temperature change is represented in Figure 4. Changes in
many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since
about 1950. Particularly, the number of cold days and nights has decreased
and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale
(IPCC, 2013).
GLOBAL WARMING: Earth warming up has increased in 100 years, mostly in last 20 years. 2016 is considered to be the hottest ye ars. It is
mostly accompanied by the heat waves, wild fires, tropical storms. Global warming is an average increase in temperature of atmosphere
near the earth’s surface and troposphere, which contribute to change in the climate pattern

• During Pre industrial time: total concentration of Carbon di oxide in the

atmosphere was 0.028 %
• During Industrial period=total concentration of Carbon di oxide in the
atmosphere is 0.033 %
• Post industrialisation = total concentration of Carbon di oxide in the
atmosphere is 0.040%
• Total increase is 180 to 400 parts per million
• And last time when it was so high it was about 3 million years ago. So there
is continuous warming trend since 18th century due to anthropogenic causes.
“ the window of action is closing rapidly”-IPCC (2014).Efforts under UNFCCC
remain inadequate.
• So it is the impact of increase in the green house gasses which are not able
to escape our atmosphere….leading to the overall rise in temperature.
• IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING:
• Hydrosphere: Rise in sea level: Warming of oceans especially upto 700m
depth, there is also change in in the ocean biochemistry (increased
acidification)
• LITHOSPHERE
• Rainfall pattern
• Heat waves
• Icecap melt Distruption in biogeochemical cycles
Increased vulnerabilities of cryosphere (Antartic ice shelves)
• Glaciers Loss of Peatlands (natural stores of carbon cuvette centrale in cargo
• Animal population basin)
• Spread of diseases
• Coral bleaching
• Loss of plankton
What is IPCC??
 GLOBAL CLIMATIC
ASSESSMENT-IPCC

NOTE: IPCC does not carry out its

own original research, nor does it
do the work of monitoring climate
or related phenomena itself. The
IPCC bases its assessment on the
published literature.

NOTE: IT IS AN INTERNATIONALLY ACCEPTED AUTHORITY ON CLIMATE CHANGE Thousands of scientists and other
IT IS SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS experts contribute on voluntary
THE 2007 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE- IPCC AND ALGORE basis, without payment from IPCC
to write and reviewing reports,
which are then after reviewed by
government
TILL DATE THERE ARE 5 ASSESSMENT REPORTS (AR)
1ST : 1990
1992
2ND : 1995 basis of KYOTO PROTOCOL
3RD: 2001
4TH: 2007
5TH : 2014 (Paris summit was based on this report)
6th: 2021 and 2022. (COP 26 is likely to be held in
novemeber)
SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5 DEGREE
CELCIUS (SR 1.5-OCT 2018)
SPECIAL REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND (srccl-
AUGUST 2019)
Working Group 1 has come up with following reports

Working group 2 will come with this report

Working group 3 will come with this report

All the above group report will get synthesis

Working Group 1

IT SUGGEST ABOUT IMMEDIATE ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

IPCC 6th Assessment report released in 1t
week of August
• It noted that global net-zero by 2050 was the minimum required to
keep the temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius.
• It sets the stage for the Conference of Parties (CoP) 26 conference
in November 2021.
• Change in lulc: changes in reflectance, co2, methane, black crbon
POSSIBLE CLIMATE FUTURE
• Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the
mid centaury under all emission scenarios considered.
• Global warming of 1.5 degree Celsius and 2 degree Celsius will be
exceeded during the 21st centaury unless deep reductions in co2 and
other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.
Effect of Climate change: Asia

• South Asia=potential for

serious conflicts
• Young Aspirational
Population
• Disruption in monsoon –
food insecurity
• Climate refugees
• Productivity of food will
decline
Different scenarios of climate change based
on different climate models or simulations
POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATES
TEMPERATURE
PRECIPITATION
SOIL MOISTURE
ONCE IN A TEN YEAR EVENT
MULTIPLE CLIMATE DRIVERS
TROPICAL CYCLONES
INCREASED HEAT WAVES: more of dry spells,
wild fires, less humidity in air
DISTURBENCE IN WATER CYCLE CIRCULATION
IMPACTS ON POLAR ICE IN ARCTICS: OVERALL THINNING OF
ICE IN ARCTIC
IMPACT IN TEMEPERATE REGION: extra tropical cyclones
are expected to move polewards
Position of jet streams changes
IMPACT ON SMALLER ISLANDS: rise in sea level rise will
cause submergence of smaller islands
DRAUGHTS:
IMPACTS ON OCEANS: IN past 100 years there is rise in 20
cms. There will be increased surface runoff, melting of ice
and thermal expansion
OCEAN STRATIFICATION: LOWEST DENSITY AT UPPER LEVEL, HIGH DENSITY AT LOWER LEVEL BECAUSE OF THIS
THERE WONT BE MIXING OF OCEAN AND NATURAL NUTRIENT CYCLE WILL GETS DISRUPTED

DEOXYGENATION: IT HAPPENS WHEN THERE IS INCREASE IN CARBON DIOXIDE

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION:

ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION:

For thousands of years, AMOC has remained stable but in the last 15 years, signs show that AMOC may be
AMOC may be slowing, which could have drastic consequences on the
Way Forward

• Climate change is described by many as a far greater threat to

humanity than Covid-19, because of its irreversible impacts. Many
of the impacts such as sea level rise and melting of glaciers will
continue for many years.
• There is a need for a drastic and immediate cut in carbon
emissions, given that the changes to the climate already made are
not reversible.
• All nations, especially the G20 and other major emitters, need to join
the net-zero emissions coalition and reinforce their commitments
with credible, concrete and enhanced Nationally Determined
Contributions and policies before COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland.
CLIMATE MODEL