Numerical problems on

Probability
Not Mutually Exclusive Events
• Problem: A statistics class for engineers consist of 25 industrial, 10
mechanical, 10 electrical and 8 civil engineering students. If a person is
randomly selected by the instructor to answer a question, find the
probability that the student chosen is
(a)An industrial engineering major
(b)A civil engineering or an electrical engineering major.
• Solution:
Denote by I, M, E and C the students majoring in industrial, mechanical,
electrical and civil engineering, respectively. The total number of students
in the class is 53, all of whom are equally likely to be selected.
(a)Since 25 of the 53 students are majoring in industrial engineering,
the probability of event I, selecting an industrial engineering major at
random is,

𝑃(𝐼)= 25/53
(a)Since 18 of the 53 students are civil or electrical engineering majors,
it follows that

𝑃(𝐶∪𝐸)= 8/53 + 10/53 = 18/53

Then,
𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)= 2/3 + 1/2 − 1/3 = 5/6
• Problem: A card is drawn at random from a deck of ordinary playing
cards. What is the probability that it is a diamond, a face card or a king?
• Solution:

Let A represent the event that the card drawn is a diamond, B represent
the event that the card is drawn is a face card, C represent the event that
the card drawn is a king, 𝐴∩𝐵 represent the event that the card drawn is
both a diamond and face card, and so on. Then we need

𝑷(𝑨∪𝑩∪𝑪)=𝑷(𝑨)+𝑷(𝑩)+𝑷(𝑪)−𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩)−𝑷(𝑩∩𝑪)−𝑷(𝑨∩𝑪)+𝑷(𝑨∩𝑩∩𝑪)
Now
𝑃 ( 𝐴)=𝑛(𝐴)/𝑛(𝑆)=13/52 , (there are 13 diamonds)
𝑃 ( 𝐵)=𝑛(𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)=12/52 , (there are 12 face cards)
𝑃 ( 𝐶)=𝑛(𝐶)/𝑛(𝑆)=4/52 , (there are 4 kings)
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩𝐵)=𝑛 ( 𝐴∩𝐵)/𝑛 ( 𝑆)=3/52, (diamonds and face card)
𝑃 ( 𝐵∩𝐶)=𝑛 ( 𝐵∩𝐶)/𝑛 ( 𝑆)=4/52, (face cards and kings)
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩𝐶)=𝑛 ( 𝐴∩𝐶)/𝑛 ( 𝑆)=1/52, (diamond and king)
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶) =𝑛 ( 𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶)/𝑛 ( 𝑆)=1/52, (diamond and face card and king)
Hence, we get
𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵∪𝐶)=13/52+12/52+4/52−3/52−4/52−1/52+1/52=22/52 =0.423
• Problem: A student applies for admission to college A and B. He
estimates that the probability of being admitted to A is 0.7, the
probability of being admitted to B is 0.5 and the probability of being
admitted to both A and B is 0.4. what is the probability that he will be
admitted to at least one of the colleges (i.e. either A or B or both A and
B).
• Solution:
Since P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.5 and P(A∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐵𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)=0.4
Now to find 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=𝑃𝑒𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵=?
Therefore 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)+𝑃(𝐵)−𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵)=0.7+0.5−0.4=0.8
Independent Events
• Problem: A bag is contain 5 red and 7 black balls. A ball is drawn at
random from the bag, the color is noted and the ball is replaced. A
second ball is then drawn. Find the probability that the first ball is red
and the second is black.
• Solution:
A ball can be drawn in 12𝐶1= 12 ways, then n(S) = 12
Let A = the first ball is red, then
The number of ways of drawing one red ball is 5𝐶1= 5,
Therefore n(A) = 5
𝑃𝐴=𝑛(𝐴)/𝑛(𝑆)=5/12
Let B = the second ball is black
As the first ball is replaced before the second draw is made, therefore, A
and B are independent events.
The number of ways of drawing one black ball is 7𝐶1=7, then n(B) = 7
𝑃(𝐵)=𝑛(𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)=7/12
So,
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)∙𝑃(𝐵)
=5/12×7/12=35/144
• Problem: A die is thrown two times. Find the probability of getting a 4
on the first throw and an odd number on the second throw.
• Solution:
The sample space is
Let A = 4 occurs on the first toss throw
then, A = {(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)}
𝑃(𝐴)=𝑛(𝐴)/𝑛(𝑆)=6/36=1/6
Let B = an odd number is obtained on the second toss
then, B = {(1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
(1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
(1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)}
𝑃(𝐵)=𝑛(𝐵)/𝑛(𝑆)=18/36=1/2
Since the result on the second toss is not affected in any way by the
result on the first toss, therefore A and B are independent
Then 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)∙𝑃(𝐵)=1/6×1/2=1/12
• Problem: The probability that A will be alive in 30 years is 0.4 and the
probability that B will be alive in 30 years is 0.8. what is the probability
that
(i)Both will be alive in 30 years
(ii)Both of them will die
(iii)A will be alive and B dead

Solution:
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒)= 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4
𝑃(𝐴 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑)= 𝑃(𝐴′) = 0.6
𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒)= 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8
𝑃(𝐵 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑑)= 𝑃(𝐵′) = 0.2
Since events are independent, then
(i) P(both will alive) = P(A-alive) P(B-alive)
= (0.4)(0.8) = 0.32
(ii) P(both will die) = P(A-dead) P(B-dead)
= (0.6)(0.2) = 0.12
(iii) P(A will be alive and B dead) = P(A-alive) P(B-dead)
= (0.4)(0.2) = 0.08
• Problem: A town has two fire engines operating independently. The
probability that a specific engine is available when needed is 0.96. What
is the probability that neither is available when needed?
Solution:
Let A and B represents the availability of each fire engine.
So, 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.96, 𝑃(𝐴′) = 𝑃(𝐵′) = 0.04
𝑃(𝐴′∩𝐵′)=𝑃(𝐴′)𝑃(𝐵′)= 0.04 X 0.04 = 0.0016
Dependent Events
• Problem: Two cards are drawn in succession from a deck of 52 playing
cards without replacement. What is the probability that both cards are
spades.
Solution:
Two cards are drawn one by one
Let A = card drawn in first attempt is spade, then
𝑃(𝐴)=13/52=1/4
Let B = card drawn in second attempt is spade
Since first card is not replaced therefore
𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)=12/51=4/17
Since the events are dependent, then
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)=1/4×4/17=1/17
• Problem: A box contain 8 tickets bearing the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8,
10. One ticket is drawn and kept aside. Then a second ticket is drawn.
What is the probability that both the tickets show even numbers.
Solution:
Let A = first ticket drawn shows an even number then 𝑃(𝐴)=5/8
B = second ticket drawn shows an even number
Since first ticket is not replaced then 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)=4/7
Probability that both the tickets show even numbers is
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)=𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)=5/8×4/7=5/14
• Problem: The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is
P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the
probability that it departs and arrives on time is 𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴)=0.78. Find the
probability that a plane
(a)Arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b)Departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

Solution:
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it departed on time,
is
𝑃(𝐴/𝐷)=𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴)/𝑃(𝐷)=0.78/0.83=0.94
(b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has arrived on
time, is
𝑃(𝐷/𝐴)=𝑃(𝐷∩𝐴)/𝑃(𝐴)=0.78/0.82=0.95
• Problem: In a certain college 25% of the students passed Mathematics,
15% of the students passed Statistics and 10% of the students passed
both Mathematics and Statistics. A student is selected at random.
(i) If he passed Statistics, what is the probability that he passed
mathematics.
(ii) If he passed mathematics, what is the probability that he passed
statistics.

Solution:
Let M = student who passed mathematics and
S = students who passed statistics then
𝑃(𝑀)=0.25, 𝑃(𝑆)=0.15, 𝑃(𝑀∩𝑆)=0.10
(i)𝑃(𝑀/𝑆)=𝑃(𝑀∩𝑆)/𝑃(𝑆)=0.10/0.15=2/3
(ii)𝑃(𝑆/𝑀)=𝑃(𝑆∩𝑀)/𝑃(𝑀)=0.10/0.25=2/5
Problem:

Solution:
• Problem for Self-study
The concept of conditional probability has countless uses in both
industrial and biomedical applications. Consider an industrial process in
the textile industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are being
produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of
texture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very
complicated. It is known from historical information on the process that
10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fail
both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick
measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the probability
that it is texture defective?