Using the future

COPENHAGEN
INSTITUTE
FOR FUTURES
Embracing uncertainty, improving decision-making and democratising tomorrow STUDIES

Our futures are shaped by the decisions we make in the present. By becoming more conscious of how our understan-
ding of the future guides these decisions, both in a professional and personal setting, we can make choices that
are better informed and less clouded by biases and misguided assumptions. This report is an exploration of how to
enable future-ready decision-making in organisations, through strategic foresight, and more future-conscious decisi-
ons on an individual level, through fostering futures literacy and broader inclusion of the public in futures work in general.

In collaboration with

SCENARIO reports
Using the future
Embracing uncertainty, improving decision-making and democratising tomorrow
P H OTO S : S A N O F I PA ST E U R FOTO: EBERHARD GROSSGASTEIGER
Content

Introduction 4

Vocabulary of the future 6

PART 1 – Improving organisational decision-making 8

What is strategic foresight, and why do you need it? 10
The five waves of futures 14
Don't let your biases guide your decision-making 16
Spotlight on future-oriented policy-making 22
Wild cards: Expect the unexpected 24
The animal kingdom of unexpected events 30
The agumented futurist 32
Strategic foresight is not just for inspiration 36

PART 2 – Futures for the people 44

Futures literacy - A capability for the 21st century 46
Can we teach futures like we teach history? 50
Time perception - The silent language that guides our lives 58
Decolonising futures: Interview with Pupul Bisht 62
Public imagination & participatory futures 70

Conclusion – Seeing uncertainty as a resource 76

Introduction If you read the title of this report and thought it
was odd, read on – your scepticism is understandable. After
all, the future is a time and a place, not a tool, so how can it be
‘used’? Hopefully, once you finish reading, we will have you
convinced that yes, the future can be used in many ways and
for many different purposes. In fact, we all use it every day.
When we make choices that will impact our lives, weigh the
pros and cons of different potential outcomes, or consider al-
ternative scenarios, we are effectively using the future to make
decisions in the present.
What we aim to show in this report is that by becoming more
conscious of how we make these decisions, both in a profes-
sional and personal setting, our actions will be better informed
and less clouded by biases and misguided assumptions. The
first step in this process is understanding how the future can
be used as a tool, and that this tool can be honed, sharp-
ened, and shaped in different ways depending on the need.
When futures thinking is applied in an organisational context,
it is often as a way for management, working in collaboration
with professional futurists, to improve (or ‘futureproof’) organi-
sational strategy. The term for that is ‘strategic foresight’. In Part
1 of this report, we explore the necessity of strategic foresight
in organisational decision-making, which becomes especially
clear in times of uncertainty. We go into depth with how and
why strategy and foresight go hand in hand, which common
biases to be mindful of when doing any kind of strategic futures
work, and how factoring in unforeseen ‘wild card’ events can
help organisations stress test their game plan and expose
blind spots. We also explore where the field of strategic fore-
sight may be headed by looking into how new technologies

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can improve and augment both the practice of doing foresight
work and the ‘end user’ experience of the output.
In Part 2 of the report, we look at the evolution of futures think-
ing beyond the corporate world, specifically the efforts being
made to democratise and disseminate it more widely and
make it work to different ends than to improve organisational
strategy. If we are indeed living in the ‘age of mass protests’ as
one US-based think tank has recently claimed, then perhaps
it is high time we think about how we can make the tools and
capabilities needed to engage with the future more readily
available to the public. Doing so won’t fix all our problems, but
it can help individuals better understand their own agency in
shaping the future that they desire. One of the newest deve-
lopments in this regard is the concept of futures literacy, which
UNESCO has deemed to be one of the most important individual
capabilities for the 21st century. Fostering futures literacy means
improving people’s capabilities to use and imagine multiple fu-
tures for different purposes and in different contexts. We will dis-
cuss how and why this is done in the first two articles of Part 2.
A common theme throughout the second part of the report is
the importance of deconstructing dominant images of the fu-
ture built on outdated structures inherited from the past, so
that new narratives can be created. One expression of this is
the decolonising futures movement, which means engaging
critically with the past and making space for marginalised world
views. We round off the report with a closer look at this phe-
nomenon, as well as how individuals can become more aware
of how to use the future through education and broader par-
ticipation in futures thinking in general.
We hope you enjoy reading.

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Vocabulary of the future
This report references a variety of terms used by futurists to describe
the work they do. At first glance, some can seem confusing. What, for
instance, is the difference between forecasting and foresight? What
does it mean to be futures literate? When does a trend become a mega-
trend? To answer questions such as these, we have collected a glossary
of terms often used in futures thinking.

Futures Studies: The systematic and interdisciplinary exploration of possible,

probable, and preferred futures as well as the myths and worldviews that underlie
them. The identification of these alternative futures has been described by futurist
Sohail Inayatullah as a fluid dance of structure (the weights of history) and agency
(the capacity to influence the world).

Scenarios: Snapshots of plausible, alternative futures. Most often, scenarios are

constructed through the identification of critical uncertainties that are combined in
a 2x2 grid. The resulting four spaces, each combining two polarities of the uncer-
tainties, represent the scenarios, which are then expanded in a process that invol-
ves both analysis and storytelling. Integral to the process is that there are always
multiple competing scenarios. As such, scenarios can never be predictions for the
future. Their function is rather to provoke us to think about the future in new ways
and plan for multiple potentialities.

Strategic foresight: A planning-oriented discipline related to futures studies

and focused on informing and shaping strategic decision-making, guiding policy,
or exploring new markets, products, and services. Strategic foresight combines
methods from futures studies with those used in strategic management.

Anticipation: A broad concept that covers all efforts to know, think about, and
utilise the future and which works both implicitly and explicitly. Becoming aware
of and recognising our anticipatory assumptions is the start of becoming futures
literate.

Futures literacy: The capability to imagine and use alternative futures in different
contexts, including the ability to identify the assumptions that play a part in this
process. Like reading, futures literacy can be trained and acquired on many diffe-
rent levels. UNESCO defines a futures literate person as someone who has acqui-
red the skills needed to decide why and how to consciously use their imagination
to introduce the non-existent future into the present.

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 Sources
Richard Slaughter: Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View (1999).
Sohail Inayatullah: “Futures Studies. Theories and Methods” (2013).
Riel Miller: Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century (2018).
N. Larsen, J. K. Mortensen, & R. Miller: “What Is ‘Futures Literacy’ and Why Is It Important?” (2019).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_foresight

Forecasting: The process of making probabilistic statements about the future

based on past and present data. Common applications for forecasting are we-
ather forecasts and economic forecasts. Forecasting is related to (but should not
be confused with) other similar terms such as extrapolation, retrodiction, simula-
tion, and projection.

Backcasting: A planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and
then working backwards to identify trends, developments, policies, and other
changes that connect that specific future to the present in a plausible way.

Megatrends: Long-term trajectories that, for the most part, stay their course even
in turbulent times. We can use megatrends to see the long-term picture through the
short-term fog of uncertainty and rapid change. A rule of thumb is that a mega-
trend must be global in scope and unfold with relative certainty over a long period
of time. Examples include globalisation and economic growth, which have both
been relatively stable in recent history.

Trends: Directions of change over time that are either increasing or decreasing
in strength or frequency. Futurists typically study patterns of change in the STEEP
categories (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political) to deter-
mine ‘normal trends’ or ‘baselines’ which are then probed and examined, often
using scenarios to challenge them and imagine alternative outcomes. Often, coun-
tertrends emerge in response or opposition to the dominant trend.

Wild cards: The ‘jokers’ of futures studies. A wild card is an event or development
with small probability but with a high impact if it occurs. Wild card analysis means
identifying these events and developments and assessing their potential implica-
tions. Pandemics and financial crises are two classic wild cards in that they are
constantly looming and well-known threats; we do not know when they will come
but we know their implications are massive and unpredictable.

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 PA R T 1

Improving
organisational
decision-making
The combination of futures thinking and strategic management is often referred to under the
name ‘strategic foresight’. So, what is strategic foresight, and why do we need it? The short
answer is that it is a set of techniques designed to improve organisational future-readiness
and inform decision-making. It is not a way to predict the future, but a way to uncover the per-
spectives of many different futures in order to facilitate decisions based on that knowledge
today. In the first article of this report, we discuss how the accelerating changes involving glo-
balisation, the Earth’s climate, and technology – not to mention our current health crisis – has
made practicing strategic foresight more important than ever.

Making decisions about the future is something we all do all the time, both as individuals and
on an organisational level. But we are rarely very conscious about what hidden psychological
mechanisms impact our choices. On page 16, we take a closer look at what decision-makers
can learn from behavioural economics and research into biases and heuristics. As we aim to
show, awareness of the biases that cloud our thinking is a necessity in good decision-making.

The current pandemic has shown the importance of planning for the unforeseen. Understand-
ably, this is often easier said than done. There are a great number of unexpected ‘wild cards’
looming on the horizon, each with the potential to drastically change the course of history, so
how do we choose which ones to prepare for – and how much to prepare for them? In fact,
prediction is not the use of wild cards. Rather, they should be used to test the robustness of
strategies: could your organisation survive such scenarios – or even thrive in them? Read about
wild cards and their cousins – the animal kingdom of unexpected events – on page 24.

Futures studies and strategic foresight have been around for decades. So how are the discipli-
nes adapting to new technological opportunities and making those opportunities useful to the
‘end user’ of futures work? On page 32, we look into how combining human cognition and sense-
making with the raw analytical power of artificial intelligence can improve efficiency and make
deeper levels of intelligence-gathering possible. Second, we explore how technology can also
power new ways of conveying the future in more compelling and impactful ways that create
more relevance for strategic decision-making.

In the closing article on page 36, guest writer Dr Adam Vigdor Gordon, Faculty of Management,
Aarhus University, discusses the relationship between futures thinking and strategy, including
how these elements combine to create future-prepared decision-making.
What is strategic canic eruption in Iceland in April 2010
not only disrupted air travel across Eu-
foresight, and why rope for about a week but had an ef-
do you need it? fect that extended all the way to Africa
and Japan. Kenyan flower farm emplo-
yees were out of work because their
crop could not reach Europe, and Nis-
san was forced to halt production of
some models in Japan because cer-
tain parts were not available.2
Pulitzer prize winner and New York Times Change is accelerating and the world
columnist Thomas Friedman argues that is more interconnected, which means
we are in the middle of three giant ac- that your next big opportunity and thre-
celerations – changes involving glo- at will probably not be one you see co-
balisation, the Earth’s climate, and tech- ming. If organisations and governments
nology. These changes are reshaping are not actively looking to the horizon
social and economic life in powerful for early warning signs and budding
ways and putting a premium on ‘lear- opportunities, they will probably be
ning faster and governing and opera- missed and grabbed by someone else.
ting smarter’. These transformative for- This is where strategic foresight can be
ces in markets, climate, and technology of use.
are ‘melding into one giant change’.1 The goal of strategic foresight is not 1 Peter Dizikes:
“Thomas Friedman
The expansion of global commerce to predict the future, but to discover the
examines impact of
and global communication means that perspectives of many different futures global ‘accelerations’”,

we are no longer just interconnected, and use those perspectives to make MIT News (2018),
bit.ly/2KuNLwh.
but also increasingly interdependent. decisions today. Strategic foresight is
The pace, spread, and reach of the co- therefore based on two premises: that 2 Michael Hotchkiss:

ronavirus and subsequent global lock- there is not one future but many possi- “A Risky Proposition:
Has global interde-
down illustrates this better than any- ble futures; and that it is possible today
pendence made us
thing. Globalisation has rendered the to make choices that influence future vulnerable?” Princeton

world a small village, where people can developments. At the same time, the University (2014),
bit.ly/3kStcGx.
interact with minimal barriers. This free process and decision-making includes
movement of people, goods, and ser- relevant actors who can lead develop- 3 Per Andersen &

vices, which has been the stimulus to ments in the desired direction.3 Birgitte Rasmussen:
“Introduction to
social-economic development, has al- By rejecting the notion of a predic-
foresight and foresight
so been instrumental in spreading the table future, strategic foresight seeks processes in practise”

to include many different plausible and Technical University of

virus. The super-spreaders of the go-
Denmark (2014).
ods of globalisation, such as airport possible outcomes, drawing attention
hubs and harbours also facilitated the to assumptions and potential blind 4 Adam Gordon, et al.:
“Escaping the faster
spread of COVID-19. Looking further spots. Though strategic foresight works
horses trap:
back, the 2008 global financial crisis is with exploring the future, the goal is to Bridging strategic fore-
also an example of how crises are no expand the assumptions and alternati- sight and design-
based innovation”,
longer contained to one region or nati- ve futures that form the basis of discus-
Technology Innovation
on; If a crisis is big enough, the ripple sion and present day decision-ma- Management
effects show up everywhere. The vol- king.4 Review (2019).

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FOTO:RICHARD MASONER
In the 1970s and 1980s, strategic fore- Strategic foresight provides practical
sight was often used in connection with tools and the possibility to experiment,
preparing the enterprise for unforesee- explore, and create preferred futures.
able future developments, whereas the This exploration and experimentation is
discipline’s use today is often more ac- essential to dealing successfully with
tive, aiming to influence and shape fu- volatility and unpredictability. Classical
ture developments and internal stra- planning techniques and strategy pla-
tegy. A key strength of using foresight ce emphasis on predictability and effi-
tools is that they improve organisations’ ciency.7 These techniques are inadequ-
and governments’ long-term planning, ate to deal with the inevitable changes,
early warning recognition, learning and disruptions, and shocks that are taking
innovation processes, and the general place currently and which will continue
ability to react to changes in the stra- in the coming decade.
tegic surroundings.5 Strategic foresight Traditional modelling techniques are 5 C. Daheim & G. Urs
“Corporate foresight
processes are also used to involve bro- vulnerable to small shifts in underlying
in Europe: from trend
ader actor groups (customers, supp- assumptions and are not sufficient to based logics to open
liers, researchers, competitors, NGOs, deal with volatile and unpredictable foresight”, Technology
Analysis & Strategic
etc.) in joint strategy development and environments. The field of strategic fo-
Management (2008).
innovation. resight on the other hand utilises quali-
tative, exploratory, and narrative tools 6 Adam Wernick:
“A new book explores
WHY IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT to aid decision-makers in expanding
how to survive the ’Age
IMPORTANT? their worldview and recognising a ran- of Accelerations’”,
Strategic foresight prevents organisa- ge of possible and plausible out- The World (2016),
bit.ly/2UTd51a.
tions from being blindsided. While or- comes, which can be further tested
ganisations understand their sector and and developed to suit a certain strate- 7 Martin Reeves et al.:

the short-term trends shaping their en- gic environment.8 ”Your Strategy Needs
a Strategy”, Harvard
vironment and industry, many orga- Imagine a future with fleets of auto-
Business Review (2012),
nisations are caught unaware of the nomous buses and cars that navigate bit.ly/2USQgKS.

long-term trends and developments through city streets. Ridesharing ser-

8 Adam Gordon, et al.:
in other sectors and industries. Think – vices utilise sophisticated data to dis-
“Escaping the faster
Kodak, Blockbuster, horse-drawn car- patch autonomous vehicles to pick up horses trap: Bridging

riages. multiple passengers who are travelling strategic foresight

and design-based
For organisations to survive and thri- a similar route. In this future, the way we
innovation”, Technology
ve, and for governments to meet the understand public and private trans- Innovation Management

needs of their present and future con- port and the definition of commuting is Review (2019).

stituents, there are two key ingredients: upended.9 This future is, however, in- 9 Tyler Duvall et al.:
resilience and propulsion. As Friedman complete without simultaneously imagi- “A new look at

puts it, to survive in the face of rapid ning the supporting infrastructure, phy- autonomous-vehicle
infrastructure”,
change, ‘…you want resilience. You ne- sical and digital tools, as well as the skills McKinsey (2020),
ed to be able to take a blow, because required to make this future a reality. mck.co/35WypsF.

you do not know when the disrup- What role will the public sector play,
tion is going to come, but there will be and what will the private sector bring to
disruptions. At the same time, you want the table? What behavioural changes
propulsion. You want to be able to move will be required to share a vehicle with
ahead’.6 strangers? There are many factors to

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consider and even more unknown fac-
tors that will emerge as the transition to
autonomous vehicles takes place.
When dealing with ‘unpredictable pro-
blems of the future’, there are two pos-
sible routes:

1. Pretend the problem does not exist

and suppose the future will look like
the past.

2. Acknowledge uncertainty as a fun-

damental premise of life and de-
velop scenarios to inform decision-
making, not to predict, but to learn
what actions you might need to
take to prepare for a future that is
different than today.

Which will you choose? ¢ FOTO:JIMFLIX

The five waves of futures
Human beings have always imagined alternative
futures and attempted to anticipate what’s to
come. In her paper “A Brief History of Futures”,
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz divides the history of futures
thinking into five waves of development,
starting with oral storytelling & extending
to present day futures theory.

1st Wave
Oral Tradition

Shamans, mystics, and priests read

signs in nature and the divine to
anticipate the future.

2nd Wave
Early Written Age

Early macrohistorians start looking for

patterns in the past to anticipate cycles
of repetition.
 Sources
Wendy L. Schultz: “A Brief History
of Futures” (2015). Modified by CIFS.

3rd Wave
Enlightenment & Extraction

The idea of progress through

science is born.

4 th
Wave
Industrialised total war accelerates
Systems & Cybernetics
experiments in technical forecasting and
systems operations – to either rebuild
Industrialised
or total
plan for future war accelerates
wars. Futures Studies
emerges as a discipline. forecasting and
experiments in technical
systems operations – to either rebuild
or plan for future wars. Futures studies
emerges as a discipline.

5th Wave
Complexity & Emergence

5th Wave
Complexity & Emergence

Futures theory is being integrated in

institutions across the world, melding with
other disciplines, and moving beyond its
historically Westernised framing.
Don’t let your biases psychological angle, an area known
as behavioural economics.
guide your Let’s take a closer look at some of
decision-making the biases drawn from the work of Kah-
What behavioural economics neman that specifically relate to the
can teach us about planning for challenge of imagining alternative futu-
the future res – as well as some of the red flags to
look for when these biases are applied
to decision-making.

‘CHANGE IS BAD FOR BUSINESS’

– The status quo bias
Pierre Wack saw the act of reperceiving
An icon within future studies, Pierre Wack, as crucial to opening the minds of ex-
once said that the best and most dif- ecutives and making them understand
ficult task of a futurist is to make people either the risks of disruption to their bu-
think of the world in a new way. He used siness or the possibilities that exist for
the term ‘reperception’ to describe how them in alternative futures. Fundamen-
people awaken to the possibility of the tally, Wack was talking about how to
future being different from the past or overcome the so-called ‘status quo
from how you expect it to be. Wack be- bias’. The fundamental problem with this
lieved that the greatest accomplish- kind of bias is that it does not permit
ment, but also the most difficult for pe- change to be positive. Change will, for
ople working with foresight and scena- a number of reasons, be interpreted as
rios, is to facilitate this transformation. a threat, especially for incumbent busi-
But why is it so difficult for us to think of nesses that have lowered costs on co-
alternatives to the way things are? Why re processes substantially to increase
are we predisposed to think in certain competitiveness. Businesses in this si-
ways? This question has been on the tuation have invested a lot of money in
mind of psychologist Daniel Kahneman organising their offerings to be efficient,
for years. His writings contain clues not and they are the kings of low cost in
just to why we think the way we do in what is typically a red ocean market.
general, but more specifically how we For many such businesses, no chan-
think and make decisions about the fu- ge is preferred to constant change,
ture. simply because the status quo (where
What makes Kahneman’s work inte- the incumbent business is on top) is
resting from a futurist’s perspective is preferred to the available alternatives.
his focus on human errors in decision- When doing strategic foresight how-
making that arise from heuristics and ever, you sometimes find yourself in a
biases. He thereby challenges the as- situation where an executive, from a
sumption held by economists for deca- logical point of view, agrees to all the
des, that of the rational human acting driving forces causing a specific sce-
based on objective self-interest. In so nario, yet chooses to ignore the sce-
doing, he has provided strong argu- nario presented to them, close their
ments for looking at economics from a eyes, and hope for the best. This can

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FOTO:BRAD_Y11
be especially perplexing to a futurist ts outside the organisation. When exter-
because it is no longer a question of nal experts have radically differing opi-
having the right arguments or the right nions about the state of the world than
data. Rather, it becomes a question of those inside the organisation, it is often
feelings. Some people simply choose a case of status quo bias, and that
to ignore the facts because they hope should raise a red flag.
things will turn out differently in the futu-
re than what the most likely scenario ‘WHEN IN DOUBT, GO WITH WHAT
suggests. YOU KNOW’ – The confirmation bias
This problem is confounded by the In many cases, the tendency to search
fact that especially big corporations for, interpret, and recall information that
often need a sizeable revenue stream supports one’s own beliefs actively
to replace their cash cow, and new bu- stands in the way of choosing a better
siness very often fails to deliver enough path forward. The ‘confirmation bias’
revenue right away to be of interest. has been known for years, and rules to
Forecasts of future revenue are rarely mitigate it are integrated into the scien-
very reliable, primarily because new tific method and teachings of good
products or new technologies create scientific practice. However, it is very
new markets, the size of which are na- much a part of everyday media and
turally hard to predict. No wonder ho- politics, and it affects decision-making
ping for the best, even in the face of in many areas of society and business.
radical change, sometimes seems to As Kahneman points out in his book
be the best approach. Thinking Fast and Slow, confirmation
At its worst, the status quo bias can bias tends to be strongest with emotio-
lead to what is known as ‘persistence nally charged issues and entrenched
of discredited beliefs’. In a now-famous beliefs. The current media reality, increa-
study undertaken in the 1950s and de- singly defined by online echo cham-
scribed in the book When Prophecy bers, tends to feed our confirmation
Fails, psychologists studied a UFO cult biases by creating spaces where we
that was convinced that the world can easily have our existing beliefs con-
would end on December 21, 1954. When firmed by likeminded individuals. The
in fact it did not, many of the members largest study ever done on the spread
of the cult still clung to their beliefs, set- of falsehoods on Twitter was published
tling on alternative explanations for in Science in 2018, and the results con-
why the world had not ended yet. One firmed that the confirmation bias thrives
might not be so surprised that this hap- in our fast-paced social media reality.
pens in a cult, but the fact of the matter The study, which was conducted by MIT
is that something similar also often researchers, tracked how news circula-
happens in large corporations, behind tes and found that hoaxes, rumours,
.
the walls in the boardrooms, and in and falsehoods consistently dominated
governments as well. the conversation on Twitter. In fact, sto-
This is a reason why it is one of the ries containing false information ten- 1 Soroush Vosoughi, Deb
Roy, & Sinan Aral:
most important tasks of futurists to lo- ded to reach people six times quicker
“The spread of true
ok for where opinions diverge between than stories containing factually correct and false news online”,
people within organisations and exper- information.1 Science (2018).

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 For executives, the confirmation bias if you think you may be suffering from
manifests itself most often when they optimism bias yourself. There are se-
choose to only listen to people who veral reasons for this delay that may
share their own opinions. This impulse not immediately come to mind. For
can be so strong that it ends up being example, new technologies are often
a defining trait of an organisational cul- hemmed by standardisation issues, re-
ture. This can lead to information con- gulations impeding uptake, or high pri-
tradicting the established truth not be- ces creating a tough transition bet-
ing circulated or taken seriously. In oth- ween innovators and early adopters.
er words, a self-imposed censorship Optimism bias often makes an appe-
can take hold, which means that dis- arance whenever people try to envisi-
ruptive business models or technologi- on how things may look in the future,
es that are around the corner may be both in regard to their personal outlook
ignored at the detriment of the orga- and when assessing more general de-
nisation. Other times, decision-makers velopments. Kahneman argues that
will have put in so much effort into com- there are several reasons for this, chief
mitting to a specific strategy that there among which is that our judgment is af-
is a sunk cost connected to switching fected by the goals or end-states that
lanes, and so, an executive may do we aim for or desire. That is a fancy
their best to continuously seek out ar- way of saying wishful thinking.
guments that confirm that the chosen Optimism bias is often found going
strategy is the right one. This can blind hand in hand with confirmation bias.
one to the possibility that other direc- The sense that one’s own business is
tions may be more beneficial in the superior to the competitor is what hap-
long term. pened to Martell, the producer of
Barbie dolls, who found that despite
‘THIS IDEA IS SO GOOD having been able to fend off all the pri-
IT COULDN’T POSSIBLY FAIL’ or attacks on their core product, Bratz
– The optimism bias still managed to take a big market sha-
One of the most commonly observed re to the big surprise of Martell’s mana-
biases is called the ‘optimism bias’. In gement.
our 2017 report Evaluating the Hype, Optimism bias is often present when
we explored how this kind of bias often new technology sees the light of day.
affects the assessment of what the im- Some reaers may remember the hy-
pact of new technologies will be, and drogen bubble in the early 2000s, du-
how fast they will reach maturity. Almost ring which President George W. Bush
without exception, experts and media said fuel cell cars would be competitive
commentators alike tend to believe with internal combustion engines by
that things move faster than they actu- 2010 and would eliminate over 11 million
ally do. For this reason, when asses- barrels of oil demand per day in the US
2 Michael Liebreich: sing the prospects for a technology’s by 2040. Today, there are fewer than
“Separating Hype from future breakthrough, it may be neces- 20,000 heavily subsidised hydrogen
Hydrogen – Part Two:
sary to add two, five, ten, or even fuel cell vehicles on the roads globally,
The Demand Side”,
BloombergNEF (2020), twenty years to that assessment (de- nowhere close to the target.2 Research
bit.ly/399VOJf. pending of course on the technology) has shown that this kind of bias is clo-

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sely tied to mental well-being, with in- plans were known in advance by US
dividuals suffering from depression intelligence since they had been disclo-
showing less signs of optimism bias. sed in an interrogation with captured
The same study also made clear that members of the terror network, but still
even experts aren’t free from optimism the information was never acted on.
bias: ‘Divorce lawyers underestimate Why? One explanation, the one that
the negative consequences of divorce, was put forward in the 9/11 commission
financial analysts expect improbably report, has to do with something known
high profits, and medical doctors over- as ‘availability heuristics’. This term ex-
estimate the effectiveness of their tre- plains how bits of information can be
atment’, the researchers write.3 retrieved, generated, and combined 3 Tai Sharot:
”The Optimism Bias”,
from memory. In the case of the terro-
Current Biology (2011).
AWARENESS IS THE rists’ plans, there weren’t many similar
FIRST STEP historical instances of giant skyscra-
The work of establishing what kind of pers being hit by airplanes to draw
biases are at play when we envision from. The fact that this information did
the future is of vital importance for how not exist in the minds of the individuals
we plan for it. There are many other in possession of the relevant intelligen-
biases than the ones discussed here, ce was taken as evidence that it would
and the work with identifying the ones not happen. As the report concluded,
that are specific to the field of futures it was fundamentally ‘a failure of imagi-
studies and foresight is ongoing. The nation’.
fundamental problem is that if we do Availability heuristics, as well as our
not know what guides our decisions, active biases, are of huge importance
we are not well equipped to make the whenever we try to assess the likeli-
right choices. This is especially true hood of wild cards or black swan
because more than ever, the problems events. The Fukushima nuclear reactor
we face in the future, be it climate disaster and the depth of the housing
change, loss of biodiversity, or pande- market crash in the US in 2008 leading
mics, are shaped by the decisions we to the financial crisis, are other examples
make today. of how wrong things can go if we are
For some of these problems, we don’t not mindful of this.
have the luxury of making the wrong Needless to say, not being able to
decision. When it comes to climate foresee disasters or radical change
change, time is running out. A big part has, in retrospect, often proven to be a
of the explanation of why we have even case of biases rather than not being
gotten to this point is that we lack the able to prepare for alternative futures.
imagination to see the future clearly For governments and businesses to
because we have little or no past refe- make better decisions, we need to un-
rences to draw on. derstand what drives this decision-
In order to get this point across, let us making in the first place. Equipped with
recall 9/11, a wild card event that per- this knowledge, one of the main goals
manently changed the global geopo- of futurists, that of facilitating reper-
litical landscape. It’s not that no one ception as Wack pointed out, should
could have seen it coming. Al-Qaeda’s become easier. ¢

20 SCENARIO reports N O
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FOTO:BRAD_Y11
Spotlight on future-oriented
policy-making
Stepping out of the here-and-now and actively engaging with possible
futures is a vital but difficult step in good policy-making. The strategies
pursued by governments can be tested against plausible scenarios, and
this process can generate a range of options that can challenge current
paradigms and help develop regulatory tools and political initiatives that
are better able to meet the needs of the future. For this reason, govern-
ments are increasingly beginning to use strategic foresight to take on
the challenges and harness the opportunities ahead.

WORLD'S FIRST 'MINISTER FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS' (WALES)

In 2019, the Welsh government appointed the world's first Future Generations
Commissioner to represent the unborn citizens of Wales with statutory powers.
The commissioner, Sophie Howe, published her first 'Future Generations Report' in
2020 accompanied with interactive artwork that illustrates the vision of how the
nation could look in 2050. In October 2020, she launched her Manifesto for the
Future – making a plea to political parties to listen to the voices of young people
demanding action on climate change and inequality.

RESHAPING DEMOCRACY (SOUTH AFRICA)

The development of futures studies in South Africa has, since the 1980s and 1990s,
had the aim to stimulate debate on how to shape the country’s democratic future.
Today, a number of futures-oriented publications, such as the ‘National Develop-
ment Plan: Vision for 2030’, ‘Vision 2050’, and ‘Pathways for a Just Transition’ which
advocates for a transition into a low carbon future, play a critical role in guiding
policy and planning for the country in the decades to come.

22 SCENARIO reports N O
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GOVERNMENT REPORT ON THE FUTURE (FINLAND)
In 2015, Finland launched the Government Foresight Group under the Prime Mini-
ster’s Office, with the purpose of coordinating national foresight activities and to
forge a connection with decision-making. Examples of such activities include the
'Government Report on the Future' prepared once every electoral term under su-
pervision of the Parliament with the aim to encourage broad debate about the
future of Finnish society.

A BETTER CULTURE OF ANTICIPATION (BRUSSELS)

In September 2020, the European Commission released its first-ever Strategic
Foresight Report identifying emerging challenges and opportunities to better
steer the European Union's strategic choices. Strategic foresight has been infor-
ming major policy initiatives in the EU Commission for years and serves both the
current needs and longer-term aspirations of European citizens. In 2018, during
the sixth edition of the Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) international
conference, the European Commission established The Competence Centre on
Foresight (CC on Foresight) with the primary objective of fostering more anticipa-
tory culture in the EU policy-making process.

FUTURE-PROOFING SINCE 1971 (SINGAPORE)

Already in 1971, Singapore’s first urban development concept plan was developed
to prepare for the city’s economic development and population boom in the next
40 to 50 years. The main features of the plan are still intact and evolving. Today,
the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) covers research into international mega-
trends and emerging issues, but the biennial Singapore Foresight Week is the real
flagship event for the foresight community in Singapore, and the Foresight Con-
ference (FC) is held as part of the week’s events to expose the Singapore govern-
ment to fresh perspectives.

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03 SCENARIO reports 23
WILD CARDS: Expect drastically change the course of histo-
ry, at least in the short to medium term,
the unexpected but sometimes even the long term if the
event turns out to be a trigger event.
Some wild cards will almost certainly
happen eventually, but it is impossible
to predict exactly when. Global pande-
mics, financial meltdowns, and asteroid
impacts are examples of such events:
In futures studies, the term ‘wild card’ They have happened in the past and
(or wildcard) is used to denote a future will almost certainly happen again in
event of low predictability, but of large the future, but could equally likely hap-
consequence in the short (and possibly pen next year, next decade, or next
long) term. To be a wild card, an event century, with little or no advance war-
must happen fairly quickly and with little ning.
warning, making it difficult to anticipate Wild cards are an addition to foreca- .

except in the broadest sense. Unlikely sting and scenario planning (See page .
.
things happen all the time, so you should 6 for explanation of these terms). The .
always expect the unexpected – or, at extreme unpredictability of the times we
least, that something unexpected is live in, with an ongoing pandemic, a vo-
going to happen. In this article, we exa- latile geopolitical situation, and rapid
mine wild cards and related topics like technological advances, increases the
black swans, disruptive innovation, and importance of foresight analysis but
blind spots. weakens the anticipatory power of fo-
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures resight, making wild card analysis, whe-
Studies (CIFS) has worked with wild card re scenarios are explored that are ba-
identification and analysis since at le- sed on various wild card events, a more
.
ast 1990 and introduced the method to important tool than ever in foresight and 1 Copenhagen Institute

the futurist world in 1992 in Wild Cards: A when developing scenarios. for Futures Studies,
BIPE Conseil & Institute
Multinational Perspective,1 a joint publi- Wild card scenarios can be used to
for the Future: Wild
cation by CIFS, BIPE Conseil, and Insti- challenge the increasingly unlikely idea Cards: A Multinational

tute for the Future. It is also described in of the future as a direct continuation of Perspective, Institute for
the Future (1992).
CIFS’ 1996 members’ report Managing past events, and organisations can use
the Future. The term was more widely wild card scenarios to test how robust 2 John L. Petersen: Out

popularised by John Petersen in his bo- their strategies are: could we survive of the Blue: How to
Anticipate Big Future
ok Out of The Blue – How to Anticipate such scenarios – or even thrive in
Surprises, Madison
Big Future Surprises (1996).2 As such, them? While a given wild card event is Books (1999).

wild cards are not a new thing in futu- unlikely to occur within a specific time
res studies and foresight, but given the frame (for example 10 years), it is very
high level of unpredictability facing our likely that some wild card event (or se-
world today and the rapid pace of veral) will happen every decade, and it
change certain in the coming decades, may be a very good idea to fashion
they have gained new importance. strategies that are resilient to such dra-
Wild cards are improbable but possi- stic changes, even at the cost of po-
ble events that have the potential to tential short-term profits.

24 SCENARIO reports N O
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FH
P OO
TO : J: P S N A P P Y G O A T
TO
Wild cards can be used in scenario ger larger events or long-term shifts
processes when describing the paths that would probably happen anyway
that lead to scenarios (backcasting - at a later time, triggered by another
see page 6). One wild card event may event. Certain stresses have built up
set developments on a path leading to over time, and the wild card event is
a certain scenario, while another event simply the straw that breaks the camel’s
could le-ad to a different scenario. back. The 1914 assassination of Arch-
Even though wild card events are not duke Franz Ferdinand is an example of
necessarily needed to make a scena- such a trigger event. Given the geopo-
rio plausible, they can help make sce- litical situation of the time, it was very li-
narios plausible that are very different kely that a major armed conflict would
from today. soon erupt in Europe, but the assassi-
nation determined where and when it
Selected examples of past happened (and to some extent, how it
wild card events: played out). Similarly, the 9/11 terrorist
• The 1918 H1N1 influenza epidemic attacks triggered the US-led invasion
• The discovery of penicillin of Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which
• The Wall Street crash of 1929 would likely have happened at some
• The oil crises of the 1970s time anyway given the geopolitical pri-
• The collapse of the Soviet Union orities of the US administration at the
• The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis time. Hence, in some cases, the wild
• The terrorist attacks of 9/11/2001 card trigger event itself may be unpre-
• The financial crisis of 2007-08 dictable, but what follows is not.
• The current COVID-19 pandemic The current COVID-19 pandemic may
well turn out to be a trigger event for
Examples of possible future one or more shifts. For one thing, the
wild cards: pandemic has forced a lot of people to
• A digital pandemic; a computer virus work from home and to exchange phy-
destroys all internet-connected data sical meetings for video meetings. Or-
• Breakthrough in fusion power ganisations for which this shift has been
• Global hyperinflation a positive one may turn to operating
• A sudden unexpected release of via entirely virtual offices. The pande-
methane hydrate increasing mic may also trigger an end to the slow
global warming erosion of public healthcare that we
• Scientific breakthrough allowing have seen in much of the world over
dramatic extension of human the last half century or so, since coun-
lifespan tries with strong public healthcare (and
• Global stock market collapse welfare in general) overall have hand-
• Superhuman AI develops led the pandemic far better than coun-
consciousness tries with more privatised healthcare.
• Crop disease pandemic causes Whenever an event occurs that can
global starvation be categorised as a wild card, it can
be helpful to consider if it may trigger
TRIGGER EVENTS some nascent shift and what that shift
Sometimes wild card events may trig- could be – as well as what it would

26 SCENARIO reports N O
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 mean for your market. Likewise, if you swans – perhaps ignoring how much
feel that a certain radical shift is on the planning and effort was put into many
horizon, it can be useful to analyse what of these events.
events could trigger this shift and then Some of what Taleb calls black swans
be prepared when it comes. However, are rather directed but radical innovati-
it should be noted that, due to political ons that create new markets and value
or social inertia, a wild card event may networks, eventually disrupting existing
not necessarily trigger a nascent shift, markets and value networks – some-
even when such a shift seems needed. thing that Clayton Christensen in 1995
The financial crisis of 2007-08 revealed termed disruptive innovation (or simply
a lot of instabilities and weaknesses in disruptors).5 The rise of internet shop-
the financial sector, and while some ping is an example of such disruptive
measures against a repeat event have innovation; it grew organically from the
been introduced, critics warn that more invention of the internet (which in itself
comprehensive changes are needed wasn’t very disruptive in its first deca-
to prevent a new financial crisis within des) and rapidly and radically disrup-
3 Victor Li (Villanova the next decade or two.3 ted the global retail market. A future true
School of Business):
self-driving car will also be a disruptive
“The next financial
crisis: Why it is looking THE ANIMAL KINGDOM OF innovation rather than a wild card.
like history may repeat UNEXPECTED EVENTS The success of Taleb’s black swan
itself”, CNBC (2018),
Wild cards are closely related to the theory has triggered several other re-
cnb.cx/2HjGWwe.
‘black swan’ theory developed by Nas- lated forecasting terms named for ani-
4 Nassim Nicholas Taleb: sim Nicholas Taleb in his 2001 book Fo- mals. ‘White leopards’ are hidden or
Fooled By Randomness,
oled By Randomness and later ex- camouflaged risks that can have large
Random House 2001;
The Black Swan: The panded upon in his 2007 book The impacts, ‘grey rhinos’ are obvious risks
Impact of the Highly Black Swan.4 The term ‘black swan’ was that are ignored, ‘black jellyfish’ are
Improbable, Random
used in Europe for something impos- known and normal risks that unexpec-
House (2007).
sible until actual black swans were tedly escalate out of control due to po-
5 Clayton M. Christen- discovered in 1697 by explorers in sitive feedback, and ‘black elephants’
sen, Michael E. Raynor,
Australia. Wild cards and black swans are widely predicted events that are
& Rory McDonald:
“What is Disruptive share many characteristics, but there rejected as unlikely until they actually
Innovation?”, Harvard are also differences between the two. occur, after which they are dismissed
Business Review 2015,
Wild cards are scenarios we can imagi- as unpredictable black swans. As the-
bit.ly/35KaH2Y.
ne (although we may be poorly prepa- se kinds of events can all be understo-
re for dealing with them), while black od and prepared for with better fore-
swans seem unimaginable before they sight as well as research into and a-
occur. Taleb observes how unexpec- wareness of risks, they can be catego-
ted events of large magnitude have rised as blind spots (or blindspots). Even
had major consequences in the past though blind spots aren’t wild cards,
and posits that they collectively play the fact that they catch decision-makers
vastly larger roles in history than regu- unprepared means that they are worth
lar occurrences. Taleb sees almost all discussing in this context.
major scientific discoveries, historical Blind spots, according to Michael Por-
events, and artistic accomplishments ter, are items of conventional wisdom
as undirected and unpredicted black which no longer hold true but still guide

N O
03 SCENARIO reports 27
business strategy.6 They are incomple- 6 Michael Porter: Com-
petitive Strategy, Free
te, obsolete, or incorrect assumptions Press (1980).
in a decision-maker’s understanding of
7 Benjamin Gilad:
the environment, and blind spot analy-
Business Blindspots:
sis can be used to uncover such erro- Replacing Your
neous assumptions. In his 1993 book Company’s Entrenched
and Outdated Myths,
Business Blindspots,7 Benjamin Gilad
Beliefs and Assumptions
introduced a three-step model for un- With the Realities of
covering blind spots: Today’s Markets, Probus
Professional Pub (1993).

Step One: Conduct an analysis of Mi- 8 “Porter’s Five Forces:

chael Porter’s five-force industry struc- Understanding
Competitive Forces to
ture, augmented with identification of
8
Maximize Profitability”,
possible change drivers: trends with the MindTools.com,
potential to profoundly affect the balan- bit.ly/3dOENVg.

ce of power between the five forces.

Step Two: Collect competitive intelligen-

ce on the target company’s top exe-
cutives’ assumptions regarding the a-
bove industry structure, using available
sources such as interviews, talks, and
annual reports, or through strategy re-
verse engineering, which looks for the
underlying assumptions that could rati-
onalise existing strategy.

Step Three: Compare the results of

Step Two with the analysis in Step One.
Any contradiction between the two is a
potential blind spot.

Whether we call unforeseen risks or fu-

ture events wild cards, black swans, or
blind spots, it is certain that they will cha-
racterise the coming decades, perhaps
even more so than past decades given
the many fields of great impact that
show sign of great unpredictability: ge-
opolitics, economy, AI and robotics, ge-
netic technology, climate change, the
current pandemic and possible future
ones. This makes exploration of wild
cards and their implications a very im-
portant part of any strategy process . ¢

28 SCENARIO reports N O
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The animal kingdom of
unexpected events

Black swans
Unexpected events of
large magnitude that
seem impossible until
they occur.

White leopards
Hidden or camouflaged
risks that can have
large impacts.

Source
Ziauddin Sardar and John Sweeney: “The menagerie of
postnormal potentialities".

30 SCENARIO reports N O
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 Black elephants
widely predicted
events that are
rejected as unlikely
until they actually
occur, after which
they are dismissed
as unpredictable
black swans.

Grey rhinos
Obvious risks that
are ignored.

Black jellyfish
Known and normal
risks that unexpectedly
escalate out of control
due to positive feedback.

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03 SCENARIO reports 31
The augmented decision-making and machine intelli-
gence will continue to blur. So, if humans
futurist and machines will make decisions to-
Digital transformation of
gether, why shouldn’t we expect that
strategic foresight
humans and machines will explore the
future together? Developments within
two elements of strategic foresight are
especially being transformed by tech-
nology:
1) Combining human cognition and
sense-making with the raw analytical
Despite futures studies being heavily power of artificial intelligence for en-
associated with technology, futurists hanced efficiency and deeper levels
have rarely used digital tools as a cen- of intelligence gathering.
tral part of their work until recent years. 2) New, technology-powered ways
If we look at how strategic foresight (as of conveying the future in more compel-
a field of futures studies) has evolved, it ling ways that create more relevance
has not really departed very far from its for strategic decision-making.
origins. Many of the same methods
that were developed in the early days FUTURIST + AI
of strategic foresight, such as scenario AI is getting more advanced each day,
planning, horizon scanning, and the and the dominating model in the digital
Delphi survey method, are still used economy will arguably have human and
today in largely the same fashion they artificial intelligence working together
were back then. and joining forces as ‘hybrid intelligen-
The rationale for using foresight as ce’ to collectively achieve superior re-
part of strategy and planning proces- sults that were not possible before.1 1 James Wilson and Paul
R. Daugherty:
ses has not changed over the years. In While this is something that many futu-
“Collaborative Intelligen-
fact, the capability to explore and de- rists are engrossed in every day, not ce: Humans and AI Are
velop insights into future alternatives to many have really taken an inward look Joining Forces”, Harvard
Business Review (2018),
guide strategic thinking, identify oppor- at how this will transform and augment
bit.ly/3nNPRpp.
tunities, and build resilience in the face their own strategic foresight profession.
of (compounded) uncertainty and com- Probably the most cumbersome com-
plexity has arguably never been more ponent in strategic foresight is the re-
important. search and intelligence gathering pha-
However, the basis for the practice of se, often referred to as horizon scan-
strategic foresight is changing. While the ning. This is the phase where futurists
human cognition and the fine art of un- systematically scan the horizon for intel
derstanding, perception, and sense- about emerging trends and develop-
making remains at the very core, tech- ments that could impact any given stra-
nology is increasingly applied to aug- tegic environment in the future. This in-
ment traditional strategic foresight and cludes scanning for novel and unex-
make it more efficient, while also en- pected issues, persistent problems,
hancing its quality and relevance. and trends as well as discontinuities,
Arguably, the lines between human including matters at the margins of cur-

32 SCENARIO reports N O
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 rent thinking that challenge current as- AI is already widely used for prediction
2 ”Overview of Met- sumptions.2 A significant chunk of hori- and forecasting in different business
hodologies”, OECD, zon scanning involves searching and settings. But talking about AI doing actu-
bit.ly/2J0uRNv.
mining vast amounts of information, al foresight still makes little sense. While
3 Cory Stieg: ”How this such as scientific publications, publis- strong forecasts are clearly very useful
Canadian start-up
hed articles and opinions, and social when trying to create insights about the
spotted coronavirus
before everyone else
media listening. In theory, in our infor- future, even when embracing this da-
knew about it”, mation-saturated world, futurists have ta-driven path to foresight, prediction
CNBC (2020),
almost unlimited sources of signals, in- can never be the end goal of strategic
cnb.cx/3lYIomO.
sights, sentiments, and ideas available foresight. It will never be a futurist’s job
4 Andreas Schühly, to them. This can be incredibly complex to predict or attempt to offer definitive
Frank Becker, & Florian
and seemingly impossible to handle. answers about the future. The value of
Klein: Real Time Stra-
tegy: When Strategic
The good news is that specialised AI strategic foresight really lies in broa-
Foresight Meets Artificial tools are highly capable of doing the dening people’s views and challen-
Intelligence, Emerald
heavy lifting in this vital foresight phase ging beliefs and assumptions in relati-
Group Publishing (2020).
by using natural language processing on to the future, to enhance their pre-
and machine learning. The obvious ad- paredness and build resilience. Ultima-
vantages here are, of course, that an AI tely, a future in which we have AI with
assistant can read much faster, scrape proper human-level foresight capabili-
much broader, dig much deeper, ana- ties would be a future where we have
lyse trends much more efficiently, and artificial general intelligence. But again,
visualise changes much more clearly, this might arrive faster than we would
than ordinary humans will ever be able imagine.
to – nearly all in real-time, as things tend Overall, the positive practical implica-
to change faster than we expect. The tions are tremendous as such AI tools
only thing you would have to provide is are becoming more and more accessi-
a context and specific criteria – the rest ble. Harnessing the power of AI to au-
is up to the AI. But maybe even more tomate and augment the research and
important, the AI assistant can also spot intelligence gathering can decrease
novel relationships between drivers that resources spent by up to 75%, while in-
humans are simply incapable of fore- creasing the quality by up to 40%.4 This
seeing, potentially unveiling blind spots essentially frees up time for the futurist
and wild card events! A very recent to do what he/she does best – explo-
example is how BlueDot, a Canadian AI ring, understanding, and making sense
start-up, detected the COVID-19 out- of uncertainty and the potential impacts
break nine days before WHO released of the many variables at play, while en-
its first statement. They did that by con- gaging decision-makers in thinking ab-
stantly sifting through local information out the future and becoming comforta-
(100,000 online articles each day span- ble with change.
ning 65 languages) from journalists and
healthcare workers, statements from LEVERAGING NEW TECH TO CONVEY
official public health organisations, glo- THE IMPORTANCE OF THE FUTURE
bal airline ticketing data, livestock health TO THE PRESENT
reports and population demographics, Doing strategic foresight means wor-
and climate data from satellites.3 king with people who all have their own

N O
03 SCENARIO reports 33
beliefs and assumptions about what the future and conveying it in more im-
the future holds – both consciously and pactful ways, by applying much more
subconsciously. These assumptions will effective data visualisation and story-
influence planning, decisions, and acti- telling techniques. Connecting strategic
ons. ‘We see the world, not as it is, but foresight with more impactful, tech-
as who we are’, as formulated by the enabled experiences can help bypass
late author and leadership guru Ste- people’s inherent defence mechanisms
phen Covey. The same can be said in and support people in coping with 5 Adam Vigdor Gordon,
relation to the future! complexity by connecting the future René Rorhbeck, &
Jan Oliver Schwarz:
One important lesson is that in strate- with the present, thus making the future
“Escaping the ‘Faster
gic foresight, the process is at least as more comprehensible.6 Using new tech Horses’ Trap: Bridging
important as the findings. What matters to connect with an audience in different Strategic Foresight
and Design-Based
is the fact that it inspires insight and, in ways is nothing new, and it has essen-
Innovation”, Technology
turn, facilitates transformative action. tially become the cornerstone of brand Innovation Management

Hence, probably the most prominent, communication in the world of business. Review Vol. 9 Issue 8,
(2019); Stuart Candy and
yet most difficult tasks of a futurist is to So, needless to say, the opportunity to
Kelly Kornet: ”Turning
make people think of the world in new provide much more immersive strategic Foresight Inside Out:

ways (described as the challenge of foresight processes – maybe even in An Introduction to

Ethnographic
‘reperception’ on page 16) and facilita- AI-powered personalised formats – will
Experiential Futures”,
te a diverse conversation, yet maintain be a game changer in providing more Journal of Futures

a shared understanding about the futu- impactful and relevant experiences that Studies Vol. 3, (2019).

re. In very generalised terms, the stra- engage stakeholders in envisioning

6 Stephen Denning:
tegic foresight ‘user experience’ has their futures from a strategic decision- “Using Stories to Spark

been rather one-dimensional and dull, making point of view. Organizational Chan-
ge”, Systems Thinker,
often culminating in a nice scenario re- Moving forward, the digital reality will
bit.ly/35X6WXU.
port – sometimes glossy – with a set of change how strategic foresight enga-
recommendations that can feed into ges with technology, by making it more
strategic decision-making. That’s it, job efficient while also enhancing its quali-
done! ty and ‘clout’ for inspiring futures-orien-
While the recommendations seen in ted decision-making. But when all is said
isolation might be very relevant and ro- and done, this tech-augmentation is
bust for decision-making, this arguably only worth so much without the subtle
offers limited potential for reperception. capabilities of understanding and sen-
Consequently, a push for more enga- se-making that a good futurist brings
ging and immersive foresight approa- to the table ¢.
ches happens on two fronts. In brief, an
integration of traditional strategic fore- 'One important lesson is that in strate-
sight and techniques from design disci- gic foresight, the process is at least as
plines have been happening for some
important as the findings. What mat-
time now. And frameworks that combi-
ters is the fact that it inspires insight
ne the two have been proven to work
well in transformative processes.5 and, in turn, facilitates transformative
At the same time, new tech – espe- action.'
cially the immersive ones like AR and VR
– offer new methods of interacting with FOTO : N E W 1 L LU M I N AT I

34 SCENARIO reports N O
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Strategic
foresight is not
just for
inspiration
By Dr Adam Vigdor Gordon, Faculty of Management, Aarhus University.
One of the ground rules of futures thinking is the scalability of its basic principles.
This means that while what we do as individuals versus as organisations, mul-
tinationals, or governments differs in scale, it remains fundamentally the same
in purpose and process. When we wake up in the morning and glance at the
weather forecast, we are looking at a picture of the future. And like all future
anticipations, the weather seeks to provide a reliable view of what’s upcoming
which will hold through the period it is anticipating, in order to be useful in
helping us make decisions that align with that view. It exists to be used in ma-
king future-fit decisions. If rain is forecast, we take an umbrella, and so on.
Strategic foresight for companies and institutions is conceptually similar. De-
cision-makers anticipate the external ‘weather conditions’ that the entity will be
subject to, so as to make decisions now to be in a better position when it happens.
But there is one significant difference: while the real weather cannot be meaning-
fully influenced, external or industry conditions may, to greater or lesser extent,
be shapable by powerful incumbents. In other words, they can influence as well
as adapt to external future conditions, and where any level of influence is a valid
expectation, any such attempt becomes part of the organisation’s set of future-de-
fining choices, that is, part of its strategy.
Either way, the format remains the same. The external future view exists to
inform and improve internal decisions and actions. Foresight improves strategy,
and, moreover, it has no other purpose. To put this another way, foresight and
strategy are two halves of one process in pursuit of success at a future time. Ab-
sent foresight, strategy is blind to contextual change, therefore a recipe for failure
when change occurs. Absent strategy, foresight is speculation and conjecture
disconnected from purpose.
This coupling of foresight and strategy isn’t always an obvious or popular
position in futures studies, and there are two reasons for this. The first is the notion
that yoking futures thinking too closely to ‘usefulness’ dampens inspiration or
erodes creativity. The second is a flabby understanding of strategy which coming-
les it with vision and aspiration.
To address the first: this perspective commonly arises in situations where con-
sultants and advisors bind themselves to a narrow set of client-industry concerns
as proxy for ‘applicability’ of a futures study. In contrast, often the most useful
thing is for the client to see the potential impact of external discontinuities which
almost by definition arise beyond current concerns. Breadth of view, depth of
provocation, and richness of plausible imagination are not incompatible with
strategic utility. They are essential to it.
The second problem is solved by a tight and clear formulation of strategy,
understanding it as the coordination of actions, policies, and resources to achie-

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ve a goal1 or ‘how to win’2 where winning is understood as achieving whatever 1 Richard P. Rumelt:
Good Strategy, Bad
the agent is trying to achieve. In other words, strategy is not a future vision, or a Strategy: The Difference
purpose, or ambition, nor the pursuit of excellence, nor setting performance and Why It Matters,
Crown (2011).
measures or exhortation towards them, nor any kind of budget planning there-
to. It is not what a future goal should be, or even whether it should be. It is only 2 A. G. Lafley and Roger
L. Martin: Playing to Win:
the particular choices that address how any future goal is to be achieved. It is the How Strategy Really

game plan. Works, Harvard Universi-

ty Press (2013).
As an aside, it is worth nothing how strategic foresight differs from classic
strategy, where the strategic context is taken as static. For example, in chess, the
board, the 32 pieces, and the rules remain the same from the first move to the
last. How-to-win choices can assume stasis in these contextual elements. But in
the world of humans and society, the actors and operating conditions and rules
of engagement are in flux, often wildly so. In chess terms, we are ‘Through The
Looking Glass’. And where the board and its elements are likely to change during
the game, foresight helps decision-makers anticipate where and how this may hap-
pen, and therefore where and how their how-to-win choices also need to change.
To take a practical example, consider the future strategy of an automobile com-
pany, say Daimler AG, in the European market going forward. The game plan
that worked in the past is only going to work in part (at best) in the future. The
contextual elements are shifting as new forms of energy and energy storage come
onstream and societal attitudes to energy use change, with legislation reflecting
this, all while apps and networks expand ‘mobility as a service’, and cities promote
bicycles but also retrofit smart navigation systems for augmented-reality ‘spatial
web’ assisted driving, and self-driving vehicle systems that are almost here. Any
strategy on this board must account for the future of the board itself. And this is
true not just of corporate situations; If one is making future-success decisions
for, say, a Danish hospital, the situation is similarly one where sources of funding,
evolution of medical therapies, issues of on-site vs. telemedicine, and AI-enabled
medical diagnosis, etc., all make for a changing game board.
So, if strategy is necessary to constitute purpose in futures thinking, and fore-
sight is necessary for strategy success in environments that change, how do they
come together to achieve future-successful decisions?
There are three ways this works. The first is a strategy-forward approach,
where foresight is applied to existing strategy to test it. Here, decision-makers
evaluate their current how-to-win choices or success recipes in the light of one
or more future views. These function as ‘wind-tunnels’,3 testing how well a set 3 Kees Van der Heijden:
Scenarios: The Art of
of choices ‘flies’ in that future. The analogy of stress-testing, i.e. how a product Strategic Conversation,

is pummelled in a safety-standards test, is sometimes used to express the same Wiley (1996).

idea. Either way, the future perspective is brought to test the current game plan.

38 SCENARIO reports N O
03
 In conditions different to today, does it still provide a path to success? If and
where it holds up, the strategy is robust – at least to the futures it was tested in.
If and where it does not, avenues of strategic redress are indicated.
In this arrangement of foresight and strategy, an existing set of how-to-win
choices pre-exists the foresight. The second way foresight and strategy combine
reverses this. Here, the process starts with constructing a future view or views
and works backwards. Who or what will be needed in the future viewed? What
problems will users or institutions or society face, and how may these be resolved?
How will incumbents survive, or thrive? What new opportunities appear, and
how might these be provided, sourced, or built? Who ‘wins’ in this future? Why
and how will they do it?
Futures studies are always a zone where the strictures of ‘what’s possible’ are
relaxed (the more so the further into the future) and what we have here is a li-
kewise relaxation of the strictures of ‘acceptable’ or ‘sensible’ strategic solutions.
The future-back approach puts existing strategies to one side and starts with a
blank slate. The picture of tomorrow is used as a resource for stimulating inspira-
tion and imagination. It stokes bridge-thinking. What solutions does this future
indicate to us? What different or altogether new strategies are suggested here?
In practice, these two strategy-forward and future-back architectures are often
blended, as organisations use both modes in figuring out what to do next. Buil-
ding on and extending this hybrid practice, a foresight-strategy conceptualisati-
4 René Rohrbeck and on known as ‘probing’4 is gaining currency. Probing refers to practical discovery
Menes Etingue Kum:
“Corporate foresight
experiments in trial markets to evaluate and refine the future-fitness of new
and its impact on firm solutions, while also refining the future view. A probe sharpens strategy by testing
performance: A lon-
gitudinal analysis”, Te-
it in the direction that foresight suggests, while also returning that learning to
chnological Forecasting the foresight process.
and Social Change Vol.
129 (2018). Strategic probing is built on techniques that have become established in design
thinking, particularly rapid prototyping to stimulate and gauge user feedback
5 Giovanni Gavetti
and Daniel Levinthal: and create a learning cycle in product or service refinement; and on the theory
“Looking Forward and
of ‘experimental’ search in contrast to standard ‘cognitive’ search, in other
Looking Backward:
Cognitive and words, search designed to trigger strategic insight or develop trial ideas.5 Expe-
Experiential Search”,
Administrative Science
rimental search takes decision-makers past merely identifying a future view
Quarterly Vol. 45 Issue 1 and its strategic response and into real-world experiments on a future path by
(2000); Giovanni Gavetti
and Jan W. Rivkin:
which an organisation ‘learns’ its way forward.
“On the Origin of In the actions and evaluations of probing, decision-makers test foresight-deri-
Strategy: Action and
Cognition Over Time”, ved ideas in mini-experiments, while at the same time remaining open to learning
Organizational Science
the contextual imperatives and rules of the evolving game in future industries
Vol. 18 Issue 3 (2007).
via the feedback they get. In the example mentioned above, Daimler might do
this by constructing a probe solution in regard to driving in the spatial web, li-

N O
03 SCENARIO reports 39
miting the experiment to a particular locality or a specific vehicle type, possibly
also sharing costs and benefits with a partner, for example Bosch which is re-
searching the eyewear required. Over time, such a probe will bring the future of
vehicle navigation in the spatial web more clearly into view and also the (pro-
duct or service or business model) strategy most appropriate to it. A failed probe
will provide back-to-the-drawing-board learning. A successful probe will provide
experimental proof of future-winning solutions and an argument for scaling
up. In either case, the gap between anticipated future situations and winning
strategies for it is narrowed and ultimately resolved. ¢

FOTO:JEF SAFI

40 SCENARIO reports N O
03
'Foresight and strategy are two halves of
one process in pursuit of success at a future
time. Absent foresight, strategy is blind to
contextual change, therefore a recipe for
failure when change occurs. Absent strategy,
foresight is speculation and conjecture dis-
connected from purpose.'
HELPING YOU NAVIGATE
THE FUTURE FOR OVER
HALF A CENTURY

The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies is an independent, non-profit futures

think tank – founded in 1969. We equip and inspire individuals and organisations,
decision-makers, and the public, to act on the future, today.  
We advise public and private organisations on strategic matters to ensure that
they can thrive in an uncertain future. We work in direct collaboration with clients,
members and global expert panels in a systematised co-creation process that
ensures the results are relevant and easy to turn into practical action plans. 
Our process facilitates stakeholder engagement and collective sense-making.
We strive towards shared future visions to support strategic resilience and decision-
making, and to strengthen awareness across the organisation and its external
stakeholders and customers. 

Our recent initiatives and collaborations 

include: 

The Personalised Health Index and Hub  

Since 2019, we have contributed to the development of the Personalised Health
Index, a collaborative online platform for driving cross-industry and –ecosystem
discussions about personalised healthcare solutions. The Index, which is conti-
nuously  being expanded, features  a global overview of national healthcare
systems in the area of personalised health, with a focus on forward-looking indica-
tors selected through a rigorous process with multiple rounds of review by regional
health experts representing a broad swath of stakeholders.​ 
The Personalised Health Index aims to reinforce and drive four key activities by
opening and improving access to data about personalised health: 1) moving de-
cisions from emotions to facts, 2) making data and insights accessible, 3) building
a broad coalition for change, and 4) enabling leadership for change. 
The insights in the Index will be packaged into multiple publications and assets
that will be fully and freely available to the public in a centralised information hub.
The hub will be regularly updated with the latest developments in personalised
health and healthcare as well as white papers from various stakeholder groups
and organisations. ​ 

42 SCENARIO reports N O
03
Future of Thematic Investing 2030 
The history of pandemics shows that their economic, societal and geo-political
effects tend to be long-lasting, often unfolding over years or decades. In colla-
boration with Pictet Asset Management we developed a report that presents four
scenarios for the post-pandemic world, focusing on how COVID-19 will impact the
investment landscape. Each scenario has its own distinct economic, societal and
geopolitical features, and each has its own set of implications for investors – indu-
stries that thrive in certain conditions might struggle for their very survival in others.  
The purpose of the scenarios is to heighten investors’ understanding of how the
investment landscape might evolve in the next five to ten years and to serve as a
starting point for long-term planning and strategic asset allocation. 
The report Going Viral: Scenarios for a Post-pandemic World is freely available:
bit.ly/39E24tc.

  
The Future of Physical Retail 2030 
The COVID-19 pandemic is supercharging ongoing developments in physical re-
tail. Combined with continuous digitalisation and other consumer trends, the pan-
demic will contribute to altering the physical retail space decisively towards 2030. In
collaboration with Gangsted Advokater, a specialist law firm for the real estate
and construction industry, we performed an analysis of the key trends shaping
the next decade  in the physical retail landscape. This analysis was combined
with our ongoing work to develop scenarios for the duration and consequences
of the coronavirus pandemic.  
The resulting report outlines the key developments shaping the future of physi-
cal retail. Its purpose is to give property owners in retail a nuanced understan-
ding of the potential changes their market will face in the coming decade to help
them take adequate measures today. 
 Access the full report Fremtidens retail 2030 i et udlejningsperspektiv (Danish): 
bit.ly/37Bp4GC.  

Want to learn more about how we can work together?

Reach out to us at [email protected]  

N O
03 SCENARIO reports 43
SCENARIO reports

Scenario reports are published four times a year by the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.

BLOX, Bryghuspladsen 8, 1473 Copenhagen, telephone +45 3311 7176

[email protected]
www.cifs.dk

Project Lead
NICKLAS LARSEN

Writers
N I C K L A S L A R S E N , C A S P E R S . P E T E R S E N , M A N YA L I N D ,
MARTIN KRUSE, KLAUS Æ. MO GENSEN, SIMON FUGLSANG
ØSTERGAARD, SARAH WIND CHRISTIANSEN,
ADAM VIGDOR GORDON, LOES DAMHOF

Editor
CASPER S. PETERSEN

Design & Art Direction

SARA FROSTIG
Infographics
M E L I NA PAU L L I
Illustrations
SOPHIA PRIETO
Proofreading
S A B R I NA TA N N E H I L L
Print House
ROSENDAHLS

Interview: Nicklas Larsen interviewing Pupul Bisht.

All rights reserved. No unauthorised use, distribution or copying allowed.

December 2020
 Get in touch:

Senior Advisor
NICKLAS LARSEN
[email protected]
exploring possible futures

COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES S T U D I E S is an independent, global, and

non-profit futures think tank. The Institute was founded in 1969 on initiative of former Finance Minister and
OECD Secretary-General, Professor Thorkil Kristensen. The foundation was established in collaboration
with visionary Danish public and private organisations to better qualify decision-making through futures
studies for the betterment of our society. The Institute works to equip and inspire individuals and organi-
sations, decision-makers and the public, to act on the future, today. Read more at W W W . C I F S . D K