Using MMI scale to estimate population exposed to earthquake shaking |1

Using Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale to estimate

population exposed to Earthquake shaking

Magnitude is popularly used as a shorthand measure of earthquake size and severity. Usually, though, when people
assess “how bad” a quake was, they consider not only the size of the earthquake and how hard the ground shook, but
also its effects on people and the built environment. Magnitude alone is not a reliable indicator of such impacts.
The impact of an earthquake depends on how many people are exposed to it. Also important is how well protected
these people are from the quake. Have most of the buildings where they live and work been built to resist earthquake
damage, or are many of them relatively vulnerable to ground shaking?

The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale

The MMI scale is a seismic scale used for measuring the intensity of an earthquake. It measures the effects of an
earthquake, and is distinct from the moment magnitude usually reported for an earthquake (sometimes misreported as
the Richter magnitude), which is a measure of the energy released.

The intensity scale consists of a series of certain key responses such as people awakening, movement of furniture,
damage to chimneys, and finally - total destruction. Although numerous intensity scales have been developed over the
last several hundred years to evaluate the effects of earthquakes, the one currently used in the United States is the
MMI Scale. It was developed in 1931 by the American seismologists Harry Wood and Frank Neumann. This scale,
composed of increasing levels of intensity that range from imperceptible shaking to catastrophic destruction, is
designated by Roman numerals. It does not have a mathematical basis; instead it is an arbitrary ranking based on
observed effects.

The MMI value assigned to a specific site after an earthquake has a more meaningful measure of severity to the non-
scientist than the magnitude because intensity refers to the effects actually experienced at that place.

The lower numbers of the intensity scale generally deal with the manner in which the earthquake is felt by people. The
higher numbers of the scale are based on observed structural damage. Structural engineers usually contribute
information for assigning intensity values of VIII or above.

The following is an abbreviated description of the levels of Modified Mercalli intensity.

Intensity Shaking Description/Damage

I Not felt Not felt except by a very few under especially favourable conditions.

II Weak Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings.

Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many
people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly.
III Weak Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.

Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes,
windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking
IV Light building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects
V Moderate overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.

Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster.
VI Strong Damage slight.

VII Very Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-
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built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures;
strong some chimneys broken.

Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in ordinary

substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of
VIII Severe chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.

Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures

thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings
IX Violent shifted off foundations.

Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures
X Extreme destroyed with foundations. Rails bent.

A table of intensity descriptions with the corresponding peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity
(PGV) values used in the Shake Maps is given below. Shake Map uses PGA to estimate intensities lower than V, it
linearly combines PGA & PGV for intensities greater than V and less than VII, and it uses PGV for intensities greater
than VII.

Mercalli Scale vs.

Richter Scale
While the Mercalli scale describes the intensity of an earthquake based on its observed effects, the Richter
scale describes the earthquake's magnitude by measuring the seismic waves that cause the earthquake. The two
scales have different applications and measurement techniques. The Mercalli scale is linear and the Richter scale is
logarithmic. i.e. a magnitude 5 earthquake is ten times as intense as a magnitude 4 earthquake.

Comparison chart
Mercalli Scale Richter Scale

Measures The effects caused by earthquake The energy released by the earthquake
Measuring Observation Seismograph
Tool
Calculation Quantified from observation of effect on Base-10 logarithmic scale obtained by
earth’s surface, human, objects and man- calculating logarithm of the amplitude of
made structures waves.
Scale I (not felt) to XII (total destruction) From 2.0 to 10.0+ (never recorded). A 3.0
earthquake is 10 times stronger than a 2.0
earthquake.
Consistency Varies depending on distance from Varies at different distances from the
epicenter epicenter, but one value is given for the
earthquake as a whole.

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Comparing the Scales

Intensity
(Mercalli) Observations (Mercalli) Richter Scale
Magnitude (approx.
comparison)

No effect 1 to 2
I

Noticed only by sensitive people 2 to 3

II

Resembles vibrations caused by heavy traffic 3 to 4

III

Felt by people walking; rocking of free standing objects 4

IV

Sleepers awakened; bells ring 4 to 5

V

Trees sway, some damage from falling objects 5 to 6

VI

General alarm, cracking of walls 6

VII

Chimneys fall and some damage to building 6 to 7

VIII

Ground crack, houses begin to collapse, pipes break 7

IX

Ground badly cracked, many buildings destroyed. Some landslides 7 to 8

X

Few buildings remain standing, bridges destroyed. 8

XI

Total destruction; objects thrown in air, shaking and distortion of 8 or greater

XII ground

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The Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) scale

Also known as the MSK or MSK-64, is a macroseismic intensity scale used to evaluate the severity of ground shaking
on the basis of observed effects in an area of the earthquake occurrence.

The scale was first proposed by Sergei Medvedev (USSR), Wilhelm Sponheuer (East Germany), and Vít Kárník
(Czechoslovakia) in 1964. It was based on the experiences being available in the early 1960s from the application of
the Modified Mercalli intensity scale and the 1953 version of the Medvedev scale, known also as the GEOFIAN scale.

With minor modifications in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, the MSK scale became widely used in Europe and the
USSR. In early 1990s, the European Seismological Commission (ESC) used many of the principles formulated in the
MSK in the development of the European Macroseismic Scale, which is now a de facto standard for evaluation of
seismic intensity in European countries. MSK-64 is still being used in India, Israel, Russia, and throughout the
Commonwealth of Independent States.

The Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik scale is somewhat similar to the Modified Mercalli (MM) scale used in the United
States. The MSK scale has 12 intensity degrees expressed in Roman numerals (to prevent the use of decimals):

I. Not perceptible Not felt, registered only by seismographs. No effect on objects. No damage to buildings.

II. Hardly perceptible Felt only by individuals at rest. No effect on objects. No damage to buildings.

III. Weak Felt indoors by a few. Hanging objects swing slightly. No damage to buildings.

Felt indoors by many and felt outdoors only by very few. A few people are awakened.
Moderate vibration. Observers feel a slight trembling or swaying of the building, room, bed,
IV. Largely observed
chair etc. China, glasses, windows and doors rattle. Hanging objects swing. Light furniture
shakes visibly in a few cases. No damage to buildings.

Felt indoors by most, outdoors by few. A few people are frightened and run outdoors. Many
sleeping people awake. Observers feel a strong shaking or rocking of the whole building,
room or furniture. Hanging objects swing considerably. China and glasses clatter together.
V. Fairly strong
Doors and windows swing open or shut. In a few cases window panes break. Liquids
oscillate and may spill from fully filled containers. Animals indoors may become uneasy.
Slight damage to a few poorly constructed buildings.

Felt by most indoors and by many outdoors. A few persons lose their balance. Many people
are frightened and run outdoors. Small objects may fall and furniture may be shifted. Dishes
VI. Strong
and glassware may break. Farm animals may be frightened. Visible damage to masonry
structures, cracks in plaster. Isolated cracks on the ground.

Most people are frightened and try to run outdoors. Furniture is shifted and may be
VII. Very strong overturned. Objects fall from shelves. Water splashes from containers. Serious damage to
older buildings, masonry chimneys collapse. Small landslides.

Many people find it difficult to stand, even outdoors. Furniture may be overturned. Waves
VIII. Damaging may be seen on very soft ground. Older structures partially collapse or sustain considerable
damage. Large cracks and fissures opening up, rockfalls.

IX. Destructive General panic. People may be forcibly thrown to the ground. Waves are seen on soft ground.
Substandard structures collapse. Substantial damage to well-constructed structures.

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Underground pipelines ruptured. Ground fracturing, widespread landslides.

Masonry buildings destroyed, infrastructure crippled. Massive landslides. Water bodies may
X. Devastating
be overtopped, causing flooding of the surrounding areas and formation of new water bodies.

XI. Catastrophic Most buildings and structures collapse. Widespread ground disturbances, tsunamis.

All surface and underground structures completely destroyed. Landscape generally changed,
XII. Very catastrophic
rivers change paths, tsunamis.

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Process to estimate population exposure using MMI scale

a) In the event of a major
earthquake, go to the United
States Geological Survey’s
(USGS) website, where website
you can download the shake map
shape files for use in estimating
population exposure using MMI
scale. The URL of the website is:
HTTP://EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/ .
Go to the end of the webpage and
enter “Tajikistan 2015” in te
search box available at the bottom
left corner. On the results page
click on “M 7.2 - 104km W of
Murghob, Tajikistan” link.

b) When on the impact summary

page, click on ‘Shake Map’ link,
on the left menu bar (figure 2).

c) The following page, will have a download link to the shape files. Scroll Figure
down1the page and click on
‘downloads’. Download the GIS
files (figure 3).

d)

Figure 3

Figure 2
d) Open ArcMap and add the admin
boundaries (Admin level 1 & 2) and MMI shape file on the data frame 1.

e) Open the attribute table of MMI layer, add a new text type field and name it ‘MMI’ (see figure 4 on the next
page).

1
Admin boundaries can be downloaded from the HDX (https://data.humdata.org/)
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Figure 4
f) Using the values of PARAMVALUE field in the MMI layer attribute table, assign corresponding values of MMI
to the newly created ‘MMI’ field.

g) Using the guide available through the link below (under bullet ‘h’), we can add classes of MMI based on the
PARAMVALUE field. For example to add MMI classification II-III (Weak) we will add a SELECT statement with
a condition for the PARAMVALUE field set to greater than 1.9999 and less than or equal to 3.999.

h) Start ‘editing’ the MMI layer, open the attribute table, choose ‘Select by attributes’ option. Select
“PARAMVALUE” field values from table, where it is less than or equal to 3.9999 (figures 5 and 6). Hit ‘Apply’.

Figure 5 Figure 6

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Please see the below link for complete guidance on the maximum value (of PARAMVALUE field) for each of
the MMI class:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/arcgis/rest/services/eq/sm_ShakeMap30DaySignificant/MapServer/1
In-case you are using a PGA layer instead of the MMI, please hit this link for more explanation in order to
finalize your MMI classes.

i) For the selected records, based on the step above, right click on the MMI field and select ‘field calculator’.
Enter the MMI label “Weak” in the box and hit OK (figures 7 and 8).

j) Repeat steps in bullets ‘h’ and ‘i’ above to enter MMI value for the remaining MMI classes (Moderate, Strong,
very Strong, Severe etc).

k) After adding the MMI classifications, the next step is to do an ‘Intersection’ of admin level 2 layer with the MMI
layer. Features or portions of features which overlap in both layers and/or feature classes will be written to the
output feature class. Go to Geoprocessing tools > select “intersect’ tool. Add MMI and Admin 2 layers as input
features and hit OK (figure 9). The resultant intersection will look like as in figure 10, where new polygons
have been created after the intersection of two layers.

Figure 10

Figure 9

l) Download the population dataset for your desired country FROM HTTP://WWW.WORLDPOP.ORG.UK/ and add the
raster image on your data frame (figure 11).

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Figure 11

m) Run the ‘Zonal Statistics as table (Spatial Analyst)’ tool. This tool summarizes the values of a raster within the
zones of another dataset and reports the results to a table. See figure 12 for explanation. Add
‘mmi_admin2_intersect’ layer as feature zone and ‘popmap15adj.tiff’ (worldpop raster for Tajikistan) as the
input value raster. Your Zone field will be the ‘FID’ field of the ‘mmi_admin2_intersect’ layer. In the statistics
type option, select ‘SUM’, since we only need the sum of population. Click on OK.

Figure 12

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n) The resultant table will have the ‘sum’ of population calculated by FID. See figure 13 for information.

Figure 13

o) In the next step you will have to join the two tables (pop_exposure_admin2) and (mmi_admin2_intersect),
using FID as your primary key to get the population numbers at admin level 2. Right click on the
‘mmi_admin2_intersect’ layer, select Joins and Relates > Join. Select the ‘pop_exposure_admin2’ table to join
with this layer and FID as your primary key for both tables, based on which the ‘Join’ will work. See figure 14.
p) Figure 15 is the result of joining both tables.

q) Y
o u

Figure 14 Figure 15
can export
this table as a text file. Go to Table options and select ‘Export’. Save it as a text file (figure 16).
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Figure 16

r) To open the text file in MS Excel, open MS Excel, go to ‘Data’ tab > ‘Get external data’ and click on ‘From
Text’. Follow the steps as in figures 17 and 18.

s)

Figure 17 s) Figure 18
Summarize the information by pivot table. Go to ‘Insert’ tab > and select Pivot table. Drag and drop the L1_name
and L2_name fields in the Rows label, MMI field in the Column label and ‘SUM’ field in the values quadrant.
Figure 19 shows the result of your pivot table, where sum of population is listed by MMI class and at admin
level 1 and 2 (figure 19 on the next page).

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Figure 19

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