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WS4C: Logistic Growth: Capacity, That Is, A Maximal Population That Can Be Supported in That Environment. The

The document describes models for the spread of a flu outbreak in a town of 1,000 people. An exponential model initially predicts rapid growth, estimating 11 sick people after 20 days and over 1,000 sick after 60 days. However, this model is unrealistic as it allows unlimited growth. A logistic model accounts for a carrying capacity of 1,000 people (the whole population) and predicts slower growth approaching that limit, estimating 994 sick after 20 days and exactly 1,000 sick after 60 days, matching the environment's constraints. The logistic model provides a more accurate description of this outbreak scenario.

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73 views3 pages

WS4C: Logistic Growth: Capacity, That Is, A Maximal Population That Can Be Supported in That Environment. The

The document describes models for the spread of a flu outbreak in a town of 1,000 people. An exponential model initially predicts rapid growth, estimating 11 sick people after 20 days and over 1,000 sick after 60 days. However, this model is unrealistic as it allows unlimited growth. A logistic model accounts for a carrying capacity of 1,000 people (the whole population) and predicts slower growth approaching that limit, estimating 994 sick after 20 days and exactly 1,000 sick after 60 days, matching the environment's constraints. The logistic model provides a more accurate description of this outbreak scenario.

Uploaded by

Alan Wright
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Name: Date:

WS4C: Logistic Growth

Note: A slightly different presentation of logistic growth is contained in your book on p. 188-191,
but it focuses on populations which grow discretely (such as plants which reproduce once
annually), whereas the model below is for populations which grow continuously.
1. One person in a small town of population 1,000 catches a particularly nasty strain of the
flu. Several days in, doctors realize the population of sick people is increasing quickly at a
rate of about 12.5% per day.
a. Give an exponential growth model for the population of sick people.

b. Estimate the number of sick people at 20 days.

c. Estimate the number of sick people at 60 days.

d. Is there a problem with this model?

2. A weakness of the exponential growth model is that it always predicts that populations will
continue increasing without bound. In reality, any stable environment has a carrying
capacity, that is, a maximal population that can be supported in that environment. The
carrying capacity for a given system is governed by things like physical space or the food
and water supply.

1
Name: Date:
A growth model that accounts better for the carrying capacity is the logistic growth model,
in which growth occurs exponentially at first and then slows as it approaches the carrying
capacity. The logistic growth model is:
K
Pt = −bt
1+ a e
K
where K is the carrying capacity; a is a number chosen so that P0= ; and b is the
1+a
logistic growth rate. Note that e is actually a number, not a decimal (it’s about 2.7; you
should have button for it on your calculator). For the population of people with the flu:
a. What is the carrying capacity K? (Hint: What is the maximum number of people
that can catch the flu?)

b. What is the initial population of sick people P0?

c. What is the number a? (Hint: just plug in K and P0 and solve for a.)

d. If scientists estimate the logistic growth rate of this flu is b = 0.6030, write down
a logistic model for the sick population.

e. Use this model to estimate the number of sick people at 0 days. Does this agree
with the actual number of sick people at 0 days?

f. Estimate the number of sick people at 20 days.

2
Name: Date:

g. Estimate the number of sick people at 60 days.

h. How do your estimates of the number of sick people at 20 and 60 days compare
to your estimates with the exponential model?

3. Compare your exponential and logistic models.


a. Find someone with a graphing calculator (or use Wolfram Alpha or another
online graphing tool) to graph the logistic model and the exponential model.
Draw them here.

b. Which model seems more appropriate for this situation, the exponential or the
logistic model? Why?

ANSWERS
1b. 11 1c. 1,173 2a. 1000 2b. 1 2c. 999 2e. 1 2f. 994 2g. 1000

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