The Basics of Options Trading
The Basics of Options Trading
Successful
Options
©
Trading
Build a Solid Foundation for
Options Trading Success
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Options, stocks, and futures involve risk and are not for everyone. Prior to
buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of
Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker
to trade options and must meet suitability requirements. The information
and data contained in this text, CD-ROM, and DVD were obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither the
information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a recommendation to
purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice.
Table of Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .V
Chapter 1: Option Basics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
What is an Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Puts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
How to Read Option Symbols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
Cracking the Option Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Free Option Quotes from SchaeffersResearch.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Picking Your Own Option Positions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Distinguishing Stock Options From Stock Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
The Pros and Cons of Options Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Options Facts and Myths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
Chapter 2: Money Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Have an Intelligent Money Management System
that Preserves Capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Logic Versus Emotion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Fear - How to Eliminate its Negative Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
Overcome Greed with Target Entry and Exit Points . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
You Can be Successful with a Winning Percentage of
Under 50 Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38
Positive Expectancy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
Losing is Part of the Game . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
Allocation is Critical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
The Power of Convexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
Consistency is the Key . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
Make Money Management an Integral Part
of Your Option Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49
Chapter 3: What Options Traders Need to Know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
Options Exchanges – An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58
How Do Dividends Affect Options? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61
How Do Stock Splits Affect Options? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62
Option Pricing - The Black Scholes Formula . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64
Using Various Types of Orders to Your Advantage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
Selecting the Right Option Broker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
Placing an Options Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
Chapter 4: Option Buying Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
Call Buying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
In, At, or Out of the Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
Expiration Month . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90
Using Calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90
Points to Remember About Call Buying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
Put Buying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92
Points to Remember About Put Buying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Using Puts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Call & Put Buying Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94
LEAPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
Using LEAPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
Advantages of LEAPS Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
Disadvantages of LEAPS Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .98
Straddles and Strangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
Points to Remember About Straddles and Strangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100
Hedging - Using Options to Protect Your Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
Hedging a Stock (The “Married Put”) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
Hedging a Diversified Stock Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109
Chapter 5: Option Selling Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115
Put Selling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116
Margin Calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118
Points to Remember About Put Selling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119
Calculating the Break-Even Point for a Put Sell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
Advantages of Put Writing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
Disadvantages of Put Writing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122
Covered Call Writing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122
Expectations for the Underlying Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
Strategy Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .124
Points to Remember About Covered Calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .125
Options Buying and Selling (Credit Spreads) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126
Advantages of Credit Spreads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128
Requirements of Credit Spreads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .129
Even More Option Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .130
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
Chapter 6: Fundamental & Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .141
Expectational Analysis® and the Synthesis
of Major Market Theories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .142
Fundamental Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143
Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .153
Fundamental & Technical Combined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166
Sentiment Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .166
Fundamental & Technical Analysis Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .167
Schaeffer’s Expectational Analysis® Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .167
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .169
Chapter 7: Sentiment Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .177
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178
Qualitative Sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .179
Quantitative Sentiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .191
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .209
Chapter 8: Putting the Puzzle Together - Expectational Analysis® . .217
An Overview of Expectational Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .218
Obvious Think . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .220
Think Like a Sentimentician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .221
How Expectational Analysis Applies to the Stock Market . . . . . . . . . .222
Life Cycle of a Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222
How Expectational Analysis Applies to Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .224
Using Expectations for Options Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .226
Market-Timing Magic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .227
Bernie Schaeffer: Market-Timing Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .228
Expectational Analysis - Hypothetical Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .235
How Schaeffer’s Daily Contrarian Can Boost Your Portfolio . . . . . . . .237
Pulling It All Together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .240
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .241
Chapter 9: Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .249
Sentiment at Work: Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .250
Apple Computer: Different Ways to Play an Uptrend . . . . . . . . . . . . . .251
Starbucks: Playing the Trend with a Long-term Option . . . . . . . . . . . . .253
Intel: A Long-term Play to the Downside . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .255
Network Appliance: An Earnings Play to the Long Side . . . . . . . . . . . .258
Cisco Systems: An Earnings Play to the Short Side . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .259
QLogic: Playing Earnings after the Announcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .261
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .263
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .265
Chapter 10: Your Online Toolbox - SchaeffersResearch.com . . . . . .273
FREE E-Newsletters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .275
Commentaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .275
Schaeffer’s Daily Market Blog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .277
Featured Commentary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .278
Bernie Schaeffer Commentary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .278
Quotes & Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .279
Specialty Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .285
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .285
Broker Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .287
Personal Finance Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .287
Schaeffer’s Web Membership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .288
Other Internet Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .292
Quiz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .295
Appendix: Paper Trading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .303
Tracking Your Trades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .303
Assessing Your Trades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .309
The Process of Expectational Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .311
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .317
Video Images . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .351
Special Report
Index
Preface
This program teaches you about options principles and trading strategies in
a concise, easy-to-follow format. It also encourages you to participate
through the quizzes at the end of each day, as well as tracking your own
options paper trades (which you select at the end of day 1; don’t worry, we
will walk you through the selection process step-by-step). The paper trades
will teach you some concepts based on market activity that occurs in the 10
days following your selections, and you should follow these positions daily
in order to get a feel for how options can move in “real time.” The benefit
in this simulation is that you can learn as you go without the market
exacting its own brand of “tuition” in the form of trading losses. The tuition
you spent to purchase this program should save you many times the real-
world potential cost in learning the hard way.
Preface I
confusing terms being presented with their definitions several times over
several days (and of course, you can always refer to the glossary for any
option jargon). You will also be exposed to challenging concepts in multiple
formats (audio, video, and Internet). Our goal is to succeed in teaching you
as much of this information as possible in just 10 days.
There are two items that you will focus on daily for each of the 10 days:
II
■ DVD – Bernie Schaeffer shares a selection of valuable concepts that directly
address the ultimate success of every options trader. Bernie talks about
basic options principles and discusses his unique Expectational Analysis®
methodology. You will also gain important information about several
sentiment indicators, some of which were developed at Schaeffer's
Investment Research.
■ CD-Rom – For those who prefer to “travel light,” the entire workbook,
including a searchable index and glossary, is supplied on disc. Also
included are two presentations by Bernie on option concepts and
maximizing trading profits, along with other valuable audio and video
features.
On behalf of Bernie and the entire Schaeffer’s team, good luck with the
program! We wish you much success.
Preface III
IV
Introduction
By Bernie Schaeffer, Chairman and CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research, Inc.
Since its inception in 1981, Bernie has served as senior editor for Bernie
Schaeffer’s Option Advisor newsletter. Today it is the nation’s leading
options newsletter. Bernie
Schaeffer’s
Bernie often contributes option columns and market commentaries to Option Advisor
various magazines and websites such as MarketWatch.com. He is a CNBC is the nation’s
Market Maven and regularly appears on CNN, The Nightly Business Report, leading options
Bloomberg Television, Fox News Channel and has also been interviewed on newsletter.
Wall Street Week with Fortune and ABC’s World News Now. His views on
the stock market and the economy are regularly quoted in The Wall Street
Journal, The New York Times, BusinessWeek, Investor’s Business Daily, and
USA Today. Additionally, he has been the subject of “Q&A” interviews in
Barron’s and The New York Times.
Introduction V
Bond Timer and the #9 Intermediate Market Timer for the last decade
among more than 100 of the nation’s top market timers. According to
Timer Digest, in 1987 “he called the exact market TOP in August, remained
SHORT through the Crash, moved to NEUTRAL at the exact bottom and gave
a BUY recommendation the next day.”
Bernie was the recipient of the 2004 Traders’ Library Trader’s Hall of Fame
Award for his numerous contributions to the field of trading. In 2003, Aaron
Task of TheStreet.com selected Bernie as the Market “Guru of the Year.” USA
Today selected Bernie as one of their five esteemed panelists for the “2004
Investment Roundtable,” based on his 2003 forecast, which according to
USA Today was a “Bulls-Eye!” Bernie also made the ONLY successful bearish
stock pick in the Forbes Annual “Love Only One” stock-picking contest, and
is a three-time winner of The Wall Street Journal’s Stock-Picking Contest.
Since 1999, Bernie has been one of the top 50 market forecasters polled in
the annual BusinessWeek Market Forecast Survey. In 2002, he was
recognized as having most accurately forecast year-end levels for the major
indices. In addition, Bernie received the “Best of the Best” Award from the
Market Technician’s Association for his contributions to
Sentiment/Psychological Analysis.
My dad would often take me to visit the New York Stock Exchange and the
American Stock Exchange, where I’d get caught up in the noise, excitement,
and activity of the exchanges’ trading floors. I’d also accompany him at
every opportunity on his visits to our local brokerage firm. At that time, all
of the transactions on the stock exchanges were actually printed on a long,
VI
narrow roll of paper called ticker tape, and this tape was then projected
onto a screen so that brokers and their customers could conveniently view
the latest prices. I’d watch this stock ticker for hours, nearly hypnotized by
the continuous ebb and flow of stock prices.
At the other end of the spectrum, if I were very bearish on a stock, I learned
that I wanted to buy a put option, because if I was correct and the stock
declined significantly in price, my put option would allow me to sell that
stock well above the market price. Again, I would be buying low (by buying
the stock that had declined) and selling high (by exercising the terms of my
put option and selling the stock at the specified price).
Introduction VII
My fascination with the ads offering various call and put options grew, but
there was a significant stumbling block for me: While I had the $100 or $200
required to purchase many of these options, the process of actually
exercising the options (should the stock move as I had expected) was far
beyond my reach as a teenager. At that time, the only way to realize the
value of a purchased call option was to buy the stock from the options
dealer and then sell the shares on the exchange. While I had enough
capital to buy the option, I was far short of the capital I would need to
exercise it.
So, options remained an enticing but unrealized dream for me until 1973
when the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the first exchange
devoted exclusively to trading equity options, began operation. On the
CBOE, options transactions occurred on a trading floor in a manner similar
to how stocks traded on stock exchanges. Options investors enjoyed
exchange and regulatory protections similar to that afforded stock investors.
And most important for me, options could be purchased and sold on the
exchange at any time (the technical term is full fungibility), so that I, as an
options buyer, needed no additional capital beyond that required to
purchase the option. I was in business.
Don’t repeat my Or so I thought. I spent most of the remaining part of the 1970s making
early mistakes— every mistake possible by a beginning options trader. To add insult to injury,
I ignored the I repeated some mistakes with numbing regularity. Many of these mistakes
principles of involved ignoring sound money management principles. Too much of my
money total investment capital was tied up in my options trading, and too much of
management what I was investing in the options market was in just one or two situations.
My other mistake was in trading options in the exact same manner as I
and the simple
would trade stock, thereby ignoring the two most important words in
fact that
options investing: “Options Expire.”
options expire.
By the end of the 1970s, I had put together some extensive notes on what I
had learned from my options trading experiences. I began to approach
options trading in a much more serious, intelligent, and intense manner. At
the time, I was vice-president and actuary for a major Midwestern insurance
company and a career change appeared to be in order.
VIII
whose work was generally steeped in technical analysis (the analysis of
stock price and volume patterns). While there were hundreds of these
market letters, and many were very valuable sources of advice for stock
traders, I was amazed to discover that there was little available in these
publications for the options investor.
Though it was possible for the options investor to gain some value from
these stock-oriented market letters, I was already well aware of the pitfalls
of trying to adapt a stock trading approach to the options market. It became
clear to me that the needs of the options investor were not being served by
the investment-newsletter industry. I realized that I was at a juncture in life
where I could fill that void for the options investor.
What were my qualifications for this role of market letter writer for the
options trader? I had a thorough understanding of the stock market and the
mathematics and practicalities of the options market. I had spent the better
part of a decade learning from the mistakes most investors make in trading
options. And, finally, I had good communications skills. Plus, I was plain
fascinated with options - their profit potential, their low capital requirement,
and the excitement of trading them. I wanted to share my enthusiasm with
other investors and show them how to benefit from my experiences so that
they could trade options intelligently and, thus, profitably.
Introduction IX
The difficulty is compounded by the fact that the unique indicators that
avoid the consequences of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle are almost
uniformly afflicted with the malady of ineffectiveness.
Fortunately, I took heed of the wisdom of those around me. I learned from
reading the wry wit of Alan Abelson’s weekly column in Barron’s that
research churned out by Wall Street firms was as often a subject for ridicule
as it was an object of reverence. Joe Granville stimulated my skepticism
even further with his simple yet profound trademark phrase: “The obvious is
obviously wrong.”
But I still needed a logical explanation for why skepticism was the proper
approach to the investment world. My breakthrough came when I read
John Kamin’s pioneering iconoclastic newsletter, The Forecaster, which
boldly stated on its masthead that “The Theory of Contrary Opinion Has
Never Been Disproved.” John’s opinions tended to diverge significantly from
the conventional wisdom that had so often disappointed me, and I became
intrigued with what this contrary opinion theory, which Kamin attributed to
one Humphrey Neill, was all about. I then read Neill’s masterpiece, The Art
of Contrary Thinking, (available on SchaeffersResearch.com) full of
revelations that completely changed my approach to investing forever.
In this outstanding book, Neill revealed the reasons why the conventional
wisdom on Wall Street was constantly letting me down. I began to
understand that when market participants develop a strong consensus
opinion, an atmosphere of vulnerability is created, rather than the
atmosphere of safety that I first envisioned.
X
purchase the shares. The stock price then becomes vulnerable to selling
based upon disappointing developments or from simple profit taking, as
there are few buyers remaining to step up when sellers wish to get out. I
began to refer to such stocks as high-expectation stocks, which, by
definition, are stocks to avoid or to consider for shorting or, better yet, for
put buying.
Low-expectation stocks, on the other hand, are ripe for big gains on any Stocks with
positive developments, as there are very few buyers who have committed to low expectations
these shares. These stocks should therefore form the core of my call buying are often ripe
list. for big gains,
while high-
I was very excited about this expectational approach, but I still didn’t have expectation
my edge. I recalled very vividly Neill’s warning, “We need accurate stocks are often
sentiment measures, otherwise we will conclude that the consensus is what vulnerable.
we wish it to be.” In other words, if I wanted to know which stocks were
truly high-expectation or low-expectation situations, I needed to have an
objective way of measuring the sentiment on those stocks.
But once listed options trading became popular, the odd-lotters gave way to
options speculators, who had the same propensity to be wrong. And the
beauty of analyzing data from the options market was that it was available
separately for puts and for calls, by expiration date and striking price. I
could see at a glance which stocks the speculators were enthusiastic about
through heavy call buying (my high-expectation stocks) and which stocks
they were pessimistic about through heavy put buying (my low-expectation
stocks).
Introduction XI
Options Growth is Exploding
Over the course of the ensuing 24 years, equity options trading has
continued to grow by leaps and bounds, with only a brief pause in the
aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. This growth accelerated during
the 1990s, fueled by increasing participation of individual investors. And just
last year (2004), equity options volume topped the one-billion mark for the
first time.
I believe that two major factors have helped drive this explosive growth in
options trading. Today’s investor is increasingly aware of the benefits of
adding an options trading component to their investment arsenal. Most
Option trading investors are attracted to options because they can be used as a cheap,
volume topped leveraged vehicle to profit handsomely from the movement in an equity.
the one-billion But options can also be used to protect a portfolio from a major decrease in
mark for the first value or to provide additional income, and these more conservative uses are
time in 2004. attracting more and more attention in an increasingly nervous investment
environment.
Second, the equity options industry has moved out of the back rooms and
into the investment mainstream. It wasn’t too long ago that equity options
transactions were performed for investors by a small group of obscure firms
without the benefit of an options exchange. As a result, options tended to
be very expensive. Compounding this problem was the fact that the options
buyer could not take immediate advantage of changes in the value of their
contract, as its terms could not be exercised until the day the option expired.
It is not surprising that the tiny options industry sported something of an
outlaw reputation.
Today options are traded on six exchanges (the CBOE, AMEX, Philadelphia
Stock Exchange, Pacific Stock Exchange, International Securities Exchange,
and Boston Options Exchange) in virtually the same manner that stocks are
traded on stock exchanges. Plus, options investors have protections
analogous to those traditionally enjoyed by stock investors. And options are
now fully fungible, which simply means that an option buyer can turn
around and sell his or her contract on the options exchange at any time up
to and including the date that it expires.
XII
25 Years...
When I look back over my 25 years of providing advice and analysis to
investors, there are a number of accomplishments of which I am particularly
proud.
I’m proud of the fact that The Option Advisor has grown to become the
nation’s leading newsletter specializing in equity options recommendations.
We’ve had the privilege of helping tens of thousands of investors
understand the principles of an intelligent approach to options trading and
avoid the common mistakes that have tripped up most options investors
over the years.
I’m also proud that I’ve kept my subscribers on the right side of all of the
major moves in the market. I was bullish until two months ahead of the
1987 crash, and then maintained a bearish posture until the day after the
crash. And I remained bullish throughout most of what proved to be one of
the greatest bull markets in history.
Introduction XIII
additional educational offerings as well as trading tools and services that
provide specific trading recommendations.
Good luck with this education program and with your trading!
Bernie Schaeffer
Chairman and CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research, Inc.
January 2007
XIV
DAY
1
Options definitions
Cracking the code
Truncated risk
Option pros and cons
1
Option
Basics
Option Basics
To do today:
■ Pick three option paper trades
You’re probably anxious to get going, so let’s start with the most basic
question of all…
What is an option?
An option is an It’s more than just an offensive football play, as Merriam-Webster’s
instrument that Collegiate Dictionary likes to describe it. An option is an instrument that
allows you to buy allows you to buy or sell a set amount of an underlying security at a
or sell a set predetermined price and by a predetermined date. Options trade on a
amount of an variety of instruments, including stocks, equity indices, exchange-traded
underlying funds (ETFs), interest rates, and currency and commodity futures.
security at a Throughout this program, however, we will refer to a stock as the underlying
security.
predetermined
price and by a An option contract usually represents 100 shares of the underlying stock,
predetermined even though they are commonly priced on a per-share basis. Thus, a stock
date. option priced at $2 will cost an investor $200 per contract ($2 X 100 shares
= $200). Thus, if you wanted to buy three option contracts, your cash outlay
would be $600 and you would control 300 shares of stock.
2
You can buy options only in one-contract increments. For example, if you
wanted to put $2,000 into an option trade acquiring the $2 option, you
could buy an even 10 contracts. If you wanted to put $2,100 into the same
option, you would still buy 10 contracts (i.e., you can’t buy 10-1/2
contracts).
When the stock price is below the strike price, a call option is said to be out
of the money, while an option with a strike price equal to the stock price is
at the money (or on the money). A call option is in the money when the
stock price is greater than the strike price. An in-the-money call option has
intrinsic value - the amount the stock price exceeds the strike price. At-the-
money and out-of-the-money calls have no intrinsic value; their entire price
consists of time premium, whereas the price of an in-the-money option
consists of both intrinsic value and time premium.
Time premium is one component of the option’s price that is based on the
time left until the option expires. The more time there is until expiration,
the greater the time value of the option. For in-the-money options, the
time premium is calculated by taking the difference between the total cost
of the option and its intrinsic value (or the amount it is in the money). At
expiration, call buyers will lose their entire investment if the stock price is
equal to or below the strike price (there is no time value remaining at
expiration and the intrinsic value is zero). If the stock price is above the
strike price and below the break-even point (the strike price plus the
premium paid for the option), the call buyer will lose part of his investment.
4
As the equity moves above the break-even level, the call buyer will profit on
a point-for-point basis with each move higher in the stock. Keep in mind
that the risk for a call buyer is truncated, as the maximum loss is limited to
the premium paid, while the profit potential is theoretically unlimited.
The risk for a
The concept of truncated risk can be illustrated graphically using a profit- call buyer is
and-loss diagram. Figure 1.2 shows the profit or loss of a call purchase, or a truncated, as the
long call strategy, over a range of stock prices at expiration. The horizontal maximum loss is
axis represents various stock prices, and the vertical axis shows the range of limited to the
profit or loss. premium paid,
while the profit
Note in particular how the maximum loss is limited while the profit is potential is
theoretically unlimited. For the example in Figure 1.2, assume that a 50- theoretically
strike call is purchased for $1.80 ($180 per contract). The break-even point unlimited.
The diagram points very clearly to three important observations about this
long call position: (1) a break-even point of 51.80 (strike price plus the
premium); (2) a maximum risk of $1.80 (note that the profit/loss line is flat
at a stock price of 50 or less); and (3) the profit is theoretically unlimited, as
there is technically no upper limit to how high the stock price (and thus the
value of the option) can rise.
Puts
A put gives the A put purchaser owns the right (but not the obligation) to sell 100 shares of
buyer the right to the underlying stock at the specified strike price by the expiration date. Put
sell a specified buyers are bearish on the underlying stock, believing that the stock price
number of shares will decline below the strike price before expiration. For example, you may
of a stock at a feel that a declining stock, currently at 52, will continue its current
downtrend. To take advantage of this decline, you buy a 50-strike put,
specified price by
which gives you the right to sell the stock to the put writer (also known as
a specific date.
put seller) at a price of $50 per share, no matter how low the stock price
declines. If the stock drops below 50 by expiration, your option is worth
the difference between the strike price and the stock price (or the amount
the put is in the money). If the stock falls to 45 at expiration, the put is
worth $5 per share. As with calls, the premium for the option must be
included in your net profit calculation. For puts, the break-even point at
expiration is determined by subtracting the premium you paid for the
option from the strike price.
A put option is said to be out of the money when the stock price is greater
than the strike price. As with call options, a put is at the money when the
stock and strike prices are the same. A put is in the money when the stock
price is below the strike price. The intrinsic value of a put equals the
amount by which the strike price exceeds the stock price. As with a call, a
put has value at expiration if the option is in the money.
6
To clarify, let’s take a closer look at these terms dealing with the relationship
between strike price and stock price:
CALL PUT
In the Money strike price < stock price strike price > stock price
At the Money strike price = stock price strike price = stock price
Out of the Money strike price > stock price strike price < stock price
The put buyer loses his entire investment if the stock price closes above the
strike price at expiration and loses part of his investment if the stock price is
in the money between the strike price and the break-even point. Put
purchases begin to accumulate profits around expiration as the underlying
stock drops below the break-even price.
From this, we conclude the following: (1) the break-even price point is
48.20 (strike price minus the premium); (2) a maximum risk of $1.80 per
share, or $180 per contract (note that the profit/loss line is flat at a stock
price of 50 or above); and (3) a theoretical maximum profit potential of
$48.20, which is achieved if the stock price hits zero (certainly unlikely but
technically possible). Note this difference between calls and puts. Calls
have no theoretical maximum profit, whereas put profits are technically
capped because a stock cannot fall below zero.
This option ceases trading on the third Friday in December. The strike price
is 35 and this option buyer is betting bullishly on XYZ because it is a call.
The buyer has the right to buy 100 XYZ shares at $35 per share no matter
how high the XYZ price increases.
8
Let’s look at another...
The final day of trading for this put is the third Friday in March. The strike
price is 50, meaning that the buyer can sell 100 ABC shares at $50 each no
matter the stock’s market price. This option is owned by someone betting
on a bearish move (because it is a put) in ABC shares before March
expiration.
The call makes this a bullish play on MNO Healthcare. The call buyer wants
to see the underlying stock significantly surpass $27.50 (plus the cost of the
option) on or before the third Friday in July.
The ultimate result of these industry issues was the Options Symbology
Initiative (OSI), which transformed option symbols into today’s lengthier,
more easily discernible option codes. Under the OSI guidelines, option
symbols are now displayed using the following four elements: root symbol,
specific expiration date, put/call indicator, and strike price.
However, it’s generally left to the various brokers, exchanges, and data ven-
dors to determine in which order to exhibit these components, as there’s no
longer a uniform sequence enforced by the industry. In other words, some of
the major market participants display varying symbols for the same option,
though all of the post-OSI option symbols should include the aforemen-
tioned four primary ingredients.
Meanwhile, each option code should display the specific expiration date,
including the day, month and year the option expires. While there are some
exceptions to the rule, most equity options expire on the third Saturday of the
month, but cease trading on the prior Friday.
10
Furthermore, each option symbol must identify whether the option is a put or
call. Again, this element isn’t uniform across the board, so displaying this
component can vary with each broker, exchange or data vendor. For example,
Thomson Reuters – which provides data to a bevy of bigwigs in the industry –
utilizes a unique alpha character to identify both the type of option and the
month of expiration (i.e. - “J” for calls and “V” for puts expiring in October 2011).
Finally, all option codes should advertise the underlying strike price, usually in
dollars and decimals. However, for option strikes in whole dollar amounts, some
industry constituents – like Thomson Reuters, for instance – may not display the
zeros after the decimal point (i.e. – “115” instead of “115.00” for a 115-strike
option), while others will.
12
Free Option Quotes from SchaeffersResearch.com
Accessing option quotes on the Internet is convenient, easy, and – most importantly –
immediate. Let’s go through an example of how to access a quote from
SchaeffersResearch.com (Chapter 10 goes into a more thorough discussion of what
SchaeffersResearch.com offers the option trader).
Let’s say you are strongly bullish on Microsoft (MSFT) and are considering buying a
call or selling a put on the stock. You can obtain quotes for MSFT options on
SchaeffersResearch.com by following a couple of quick and easy steps. First, simply
hover over the Quotes & Tools tab at the top of the home page, scrolling down to
click “Option Quote.” Once the page loads, enter the underlying stock symbol –
MSFT, in this case – in the box and hit “Search.” This will bring you to a page
providing option-pricing data for both the stock’s puts and calls.
Previous Percent
Strike Expiration High Low Close Change Change
MSFT 30 10-Jul 30.72 30.12 30.585 -0.46 1.49%
Call Put
Bid 0.95 0.9
Ask 0.96 0.91
Open Interest 25348 25409
Volume 1657 1150
■ The Last Bid indicates the trading price of the option in the most recent
transaction.
■ The Bid is the highest price any potential buyer is willing to pay for a
particular option.
■ The Ask (also referred to as the “offer”) is the lowest price any potential
seller is willing to accept for a particular option.
■ The High and Low give the range of transaction prices for the day.
■ The Previous Close is the final transaction price from the previous day.
■ The Change and Percent Change show how much, in both absolute
and percentage terms, the last sale differed from the previous day’s
closing price.
■ Volume is the number of contracts that have been traded so far during
the current day.
14
Good luck!
Before we end this opening chapter, there are a few general items that add
perspective to options trading. We’ve included these here to provide a
deeper fundamental understanding of what options are as you move
through the next nine days.
There’s a key concept to keep in mind when dealing with the limited life of
options - profiting from an options purchase depends on the ability to
correctly predict both the direction and timing of a move in the price of the
underlying stock. The first variable – direction - is easily understood. If the
stock is expected to rise, but instead it declines, the investor loses money
(of course a put buyer would profit if the expectation is that the underlying
stock price will fall and the price does decline).
The second key variable in options trading is the timing of the move. For
instance, the holder (buyer) of an XYZ May 35 call is guaranteed the right to
buy 100 shares of the stock at $35 per share at any time before the option’s
May expiration, even if the stock rallies to 40, 50, or even 70 or more.
However, it costs more for a July 35 call than a May 35 call because of the
additional time. This gives the stock a better chance of rallying above 35.
Be sure to understand the concepts of time and money with options. The
more time the option provides for the expected move to occur, the higher
the price (or premium) of the option. In the above example, the May
expiration will typically be cheaper than the July option (which should be
Sometimes new options traders will confuse other financial concepts with
the above concept. For example, someone might suggest minimizing risk by
buying a very cheap option. Everyone loves a bargain. But like a very cheap
automobile, there is always a reason why it is so inexpensive. For an option
buyer the typical reasons are simple:
■ The strike price and stock price are so far apart that it is highly unlikely
that the option will be in the money before expiration day.
If you choose to buy the cheapest options, you must be extremely precise in
timing the move and calling the direction. In exchange for this precision,
you reduce the amount of money you have to invest into the position,
thereby enhancing the potential leverage you can achieve.
Focusing on only the cheapest options in this way often yields many losses
and only occasional wins. If the potential volatility and thought of many
sequential losses concerns you, then you may want to make it easier on
yourself by paying for more time. Or you could buy an option that is already
in the money. These concepts will be covered in more detail in a few days.
1. Options require a limited amount of capital and thus have fewer total
dollars at risk in the market. These extra dollars can be placed in safe
investments such as a money market fund. Why buy stocks outright
when you can lease them with options, especially when your market
expectations are likely to change more frequently in a volatile market?
Buy-and-hold investments still have a place for long-term investors, but
you can also set aside a small portion of your portfolio to benefit from
16
the more frequent swings that can create even bigger profit opportunities
for traders positioned to capitalize on these market swings.
2. Options offer profit potential not just when the market rallies, but also
when it drops. If you are bearish on the stock market, cash is usually
your only alternative. Why should you be correct in your assessment of a
down market but not be able to profit from this correct view? With
options, you can use both calls and puts to your advantage, with your
maximum risk being only what you paid for the option.
3. Options offer far greater leverage than stocks or funds. For investors who
are pleased to have called a 10-20 percent move in a stock, they often
could have made 100 percent or more buying an option on that stock.
The concept of leverage is what allows one to put limited dollars at risk
but still experience healthy absolute profits.
4. Put options are usually a better choice than selling a stock short. Unlike
shorting a stock, option purchases do not require a margin account. In
addition, a short stock position has theoretically unlimited loss potential
(the higher the stock goes, the more you lose as a short seller), whereas
a put option purchase’s maximum loss is capped at the cost you paid to
buy the option. In addition, short sellers can only short stocks after
upticks (a higher price than the last traded price), whereas put buyers
can buy puts as stock prices are falling.
5. Options can hedge stock or fund portfolios without losing the long-term
holding designation for tax purposes, which allows long-term stock to
obtain a lower tax basis. This improves after-tax returns on stock
holdings, while still allowing you to protect those stocks during market
turbulence.
6. Other option strategies can be created to profit from any market view.
For example, if the market is flat over the next month, you can profit by
selling option premium. This concept will be explored further in
Chapter 5.
1. The most that can be lost in an options trade is your original investment.
18
they collected. When done prudently, option selling can be a wise
strategy. Done recklessly, it is a recipe for disaster.
Such options do provide the most leverage and those types of options
will generate “grand slam” returns. However, some trades will result in
total losses and the winning percentage will be low. If a trader places a
significant portion of his trading capital into those types of trades, the
risk of ruin will increase. One should place smaller amounts of capital in
these types of speculative trades.
The following option myths have to do with the feeling that options are a
“shell game” that’s impossible to win. This type of thinking scares many
away from the potential benefits of trading options. Many try to “stick a toe
in the water” to try options out, lose money, and vow to never try again.
The primary way to combat such attitudes, and the primary reason for this
program, is education. Only when investors are fully knowledgeable of how
options work, how to trade, and how to practice sound money management
discipline will the stigma of options as a loser’s game be eradicated. The
following myths are included in this category:
While it is probably true that the majority of options traders lose money,
the figure of 90 percent is an extreme that is highly unlikely. While there
are no statistics to either support or refute this myth, there are a number
of mistakes that options traders commonly commit that lead to an
overall losing options experience. For example, they may take profits too
early, thereby reducing the potential leverage options offer in order to
“book a winning trade.”
There is no doubt that options trading can be riskier than trading stocks.
Most often, this increased risk results when the options trader over-
commits capital to a particular trade, fails to diversify options positions,
or engages in riskier trading strategies (buying far-out-of-the-money
options in search of the huge winner). However, there are a number of
relatively low-risk strategies (covered writes, spreads, LEAPS, hedging,
etc.) that refute the myth that options trading is riskier than stocks. In
fact, options can make stock trading less risky.
Be sure to use 4. Brokerage commissions for trading options are too high.
Schaeffers
Commissions for options trades used to be relatively high, especially
Research.com
when compared to stock trading. However, with the explosion of
for all your option
discount and deep-discount brokers and the advent of Internet brokers,
trading needs.
commissions have been drastically reduced. Also, committing enough
capital to each position can minimize the commission percentage for
each trade. There is no doubt that the potential return from trading only
one contract will likely be more heavily impacted by commissions.
Proper money management will minimize the effect commissions can
have on your trading results.
20
5. Options trading is only for investment professionals.