Volume 7, Issue 1, January – 2022 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456-2165

The Effect of the Pandemic on E-Commerce

Competition in Indonesia
Shintiya Yulia Frantika Nurafni Eltivia Nur Indah Riwajanti
Accounting Department Accounting Department Accounting Department
Politeknik Negeri Malang Politeknik Negeri Malang Politeknik Negeri Malang
Malang, Indonesia Malang, Indonesia Malang, Indonesia

Abstract:- This study aims to determine predictions of e- The existence of several policies implemented by the
commerce competition in the future using active user government has an impact on three things, namely for trading
objects amid during pandemic based on data from 2018- business actors (micro and small businesses), second
2021 for 2022 projections and analyze any e-commerce consumers, and third is property owners such as
that is declining, stable, or even increased during the shop/mall/plaza owners. Therefore, the use of e-commerce by
pandemic. This research method uses secondary data business actors is a solution to concerns about the Covid-19
obtained from the iPrice website and internet sites with a which can have an impact on visits and consumer orders.
quantitative approach and forecasting methods to find out (Taufik & Ayuningtyas, 2020). The existence of e-commerce
future trends towards the number of active e-commerce allows entrepreneurs to still be able to sell their products and
users ranked in the top five in Indonesia amid the Covid- the public can still fulfill their daily needs amid a pandemic
19 pandemic. Data. The results of this study indicate that where there are rules to reduce mobility.
there are different effects experienced by the five e-
commerce companies due to the Covid-19 pandemic. A E-commerce makes the buying and selling process easier,
positive influence was received by the Shopee and thereby encouraging business growth opportunities and
Tokopedia marketplace platforms because during the enabling complete package service offerings to customers (Koe
pandemic, they got many new users as a result of the shift & Afiqah Sakir, 2020). Another opinion states that e-commerce
in business activity from offline to online transactions. is an Internet application that is used for business transactions
Meanwhile, the negative influence of the pandemic must be and maintenance of business relationships (Awa, Ukoha,
felt by the marketplaces of Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibli, Emecheta, 2012). E-commerce services are now increasing due
because throughout 2020 and 2021, the three platforms to market share and the impetus of the pandemic. This is in line
experienced a drastic decrease, inactive users. with the report from e-Conomy SEA 2021 which states that all
sectors will experience double-digit growth in 2021 with the
Keywords:- Covid-19, Forecasting, Moving Average, E- main driver being the e-commerce platform. According to
Commerce. estimates from a report entitled The Digital Archipelago: How
Online Commerce is Driving Indonesia's Economic
I. INTRODUCTION Development, released by management consulting firm
McKinsey, it is stated that the value of the e-commerce market
The Covid-19 pandemic began to hit the world in 2020. in Indonesia is expected to increase in the range of USD 55-
WHO (World Health Organization) announced Corona Virus $65 billion by 2022.
Disease 2019 (Covid-19) on March 11, 2020. The first time the
incident of Covid-19 was reported to the public was on January Seeing the market share that is now getting wider, in
31, 2020, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of Indonesia itself, there has been a lot of e-commerce that has
China (PRC). There are more than 170,000 victims who died, sprung up. Based on data from iPrice (2021) there is at least 39
640,000 recovered from the total who were confirmed positive e-commerce in Indonesia. Five e-commerce sites that are
for more than 1.4 million people recorded in the third week of ranked at the top according to iPrice (2021) data include
April 2020 (corona.help). Tokopedia, Shopee, Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibi. Meanwhile,
according to SimilarWeb (December 2021), the first rank was
Indonesia has also been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. won by Tokopedia, Shopee, Lazada, Bukalapak, and Olx. This
President Joko Widodo announced that on March 2, 2020, data proves that the competition between e-commerce is getting
Indonesia was affected by the Covid-19 virus as a disaster. The tougher. All e-commerce are competing to be ranked first and
National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) calls Covid- can win the competition in the market.
19 a non - natural disaster with a national scale of coverage.
The spread of the Covid-19 virus through human-to-human Various strategies are carried out to win the competition.
transmission is increasingly widespread, making the Some e-commerce companies make programs to be the main
government take policies by carrying out social distancing and ones, such as Tokopedia with Indonesian Shopping Time
physical distancing. The implementation of the physical (WIB), Shopee, Lazada, and Blibli which routinely make
distancing policy is one of the efforts to prevent the spread of programs for shopping on the same date and month. E-
Covid-19. commerce is competing to attract customers by offering various

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Volume 7, Issue 1, January – 2022 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
attractive benefits such as discounts, vouchers, free shipping, (Chen & Keung, 2019) argues that business strategy can be
cashback, pay later, and so on. characterized by how companies decide to compete, pursue,
achieve, and maintain their competitive advantage in the
Based on the explanation above, this study aims to industrial sector. Digital platforms enable disruption across
determine predictions of future e-commerce competition using industry boundaries and thus drive new business forms and
active user objects during the Covid-19 pandemic based on data strategies (Burgelman and Grove 2007). According to
from 2018-2021 to 2022 projections. This study is also to Bharadwaj et al, (2013), the formulation of the digital business
analyze what e-commerce is declining., stable or even strategy includes the design of products and services and their
increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. interoperability with other complementary platforms, and their
implementation as products and services by utilizing digital
II. LITERATURE REVIEW resources.

E-commerce, also known as Ecom or Emmerce (EC) is a The results of Fridhayanti et al's (2020) research
routine business exchange by utilizing electronic data conducted on Shopee e-commerce stated that there is a
interchange (EDI) transmissions, e-mail, electronic bulletin prediction of an increase in active users in the second quarter
boards, facsimile machines, and electronic fund transfers of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022. This is due to holidays
related to shopping transactions on the internet. shopping such as Eid al-Fitr in the second quarter of 2021 and in May in
(Laudon, 2007). In another opinion, e-commerce is a the second quarter of 2022.
commercial activity carried out online that focuses on
exchanging commodities using the internet, especially by III. METHODOLOGY
companies, factories, industrial businesses, and consumers
(Qin et al, 2009). E-commerce is an activity of selling or buying This study uses a quantitative approach and forecasting
products electronically carried out by consumers and methods to find out trends that occur in the future on the
companies to companies via computers as a bridge in business number of active e-commerce users with the top five ranks in
transactions (Permana et al, 2021). Indonesia amid the Covid-19 pandemic. This study uses
secondary data obtained from the iPrice website and the
Qin et al (2009) explained that there are several categories internet site. Pandemic as the independent variable and
of e-commerce, namely (B2B) transactions made between business competition as the dependent variable which is
businesspeople to business people, (B2C) transactions to measured using active user data ranked in the top five e-
consumers directly, (C2C) business activities between commerce in Indonesia. The research data used is quarterly
consumers to consumers, (B2G) transactions from business to data from 2018 to 2021 which is expected to be able to predict
government, (G2G) business activities between government to e-commerce trends and competition amid the Covid-19
government. pandemic in 2022.

Some factors cause the rapid growth of e-commerce in The analytical method used is Time Series Analysis and
Indonesia. First, the use of smartphones and the internet Moving Average based on historical data from the previous
continues to increase. Second, Indonesia's large population and year, then predictions can be made for the following year using
people's purchasing power increase during strong the forecasting method. Microsoft Excel is used to generate
macroeconomic growth. Third, Indonesia's young population is forecasts of trends calculated based on historical data. Moving
technology literate, so they can quickly adapt to new Average is done by observing the average value that occurred
technologies. (McKinsey (2018) in Permana, et al (2021). In in the last several periods, where the average number is the
addition, the Covid-19 pandemic that hit Indonesia was a factor range. (Albright & Winston, 2013)
in people turning to buying and selling transactions using e-
commerce (Permana et al., 2021). IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Strengthened by the e-Conomy SEA 2021 report, Roaring Shopee was launched in Indonesia in 2015. When viewed
20s: The SEA Digital Decade shows that there were 21 million from a promotional strategy perspective, Shopee focuses on its
new digital consumers during the pandemic in 2020 and the own media channels to build positioning and is packaged
first half of 2021. Furthermore, based on the report, there are creatively using images, photos, captions, and videos that are
28% of digital sellers in Indonesia. stated that these business presented attractively by brand ambassadors (Suswanto &
actors would not survive during the Covid-19 outbreak if there Setiawati, 2020). According to research by Suswanto &
was no digital platform. Seeing the shopping trend of people Setiawati (2020), Shopee adopts social media features in its
switching online seems to be an advantage for e-commerce application, for example, timeline features, follow, search, star
owners. Even so, e-commerce competition in Indonesia is quite features for recommendations, live chat, games, and live
tight. It is proven that there is at least 39 e-commerce in streaming. Another strategy is to create a shopping campaign
Indonesia (iPrice, 2021). on the same day and month or commonly known as the national
online shopping day (Harbolnas). Shopee is also actively using
Business strategy is the policies and attitudes taken by domestic and foreign brand ambassadors such as Cristiano
business entities in response to the competitive business Ronaldo who is a soccer player, K-Pop Groups from South
environment and the set of values or product mix they develop Korea such as BLACKPINK, Stray Kids, Red Velvet, and
to outperform competitors (Agustia et al., 2020). Meanwhile GOT7 where K-Pop Groups are much favored by young people

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ISSN No:-2456-2165
in Indonesia. . To enter the segment aged 30 years and over, Lazada was launched in Indonesia in 2012, Lazada is the
Shopee has also made Didi Kempot, Joe Taslim, Jackie Chan, number one online shopping platform in Southeast Asia with
Arya Saloka and Amanda Manopo as brand ambassadors. operations covering Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Discounts, free shipping, cashback, vouchers, and Shopee Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand. In 2019, Lazada has
coins are also Shopee's strategy to become the No.1 e- assisted more than 135,000 local and international sellers, with
commerce in Indonesia. Based on research conducted by 3,000 brands and serving 560 million consumers in the
Snapcart during the month of Ramadan until Eid al-Fitr in Southeast Asia region. Lazada Group is majority-owned by
2020, survey results from 1000 respondents throughout Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA). Just like
Indonesia showed that Shopee was ranked first as the most Shopee and Tokopedia, Lazada also uses brand ambassadors to
remembered marketplace (top of mind) with 66% of research promote its marketplace platform. Some international singers
respondents using the Shopee application in shopping. and actors have been Lazada's brand ambassadors, including
AgnesMo, Hyun Bin, and Lee Min Ho.
Furthermore, the survey results show that 16% choose
Tokopedia as a marketplace for online shopping. After that, Blibli is an e-commerce made in Indonesia that was
Lazada, Bukalapak, Blibli and others followed. Tokopedia founded in 2011 which focuses on running B2B, B2C, and
itself is the work of the nation's children which was founded in B2B2C (Business to Business to Consumer) business models.
2009, Tokopedia also actively uses brand ambassadors such as In 2017. Blibli acquired tiket.com to facilitate expansion in the
BTS and BLACKPINK, Tokopedia also has a campaign that is travel sector, starting from booking transportation and
held at the end of every month called Indonesian Shopping accommodation. Then in 2021, Blibli acquired PT Supra Boga
Time (WIB). In terms of application features, Tokopedia is Lestari Tbk, to strengthen its omnichannel strategy as a
considered a bit behind Shopee. Shopee users can now enjoy company that manages some supermarkets such as Ranch
various games from this application, such as Shopee Tanam Market and Farmers Market. Blibli made a famous star from
and Goyang Shopee. In addition, Shopee also has a feature South Korea Park Seo Joon as its international brand
where users can borrow money called Shopee Pay later. Both ambassador.
features are not available on Tokopedia.
Data on e-commerce competition in Indonesia is obtained
Bukalapak was founded in 2010 and has 90 million active from iPrice which shows the level of visits. E-commerce taken
users with 5 million Bukalapak partners in 2017. As a company is ranked in the top five in Indonesia, namely Tokopedia,
with unicorn status, Bukalapak always has special attention on Shopee, Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibli. The data obtained is
empowering and developing Indonesian MSMEs. Quoted from data from the first quarter of 2017 to the third quarter of 2021.
CNBC Indonesia 2020, throughout 2019 Bukalapak always The following data has been processed from the data that has
took the third position for an average of 53.86 million visitors been obtained.
per month. In the first position, there is Tokopedia with an
average visitor of 75.5 million per month and Shopee in the
second position with 61.67 million visitors per month.

TABLE I. DATA ON ACTIVE USERS OF E-COMMERCE IN INDONESIA

e-Commerce Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Tokopedia 2017 46534000 50666667 93783000 115270000
2018 117000000 111484100 153639700 168000000
2019 137200900 140414500 65953400 67900000
2020 69800000 86103300 84997100 114655600
2021 135076700 147790000 158136700
Shopee 2017 9100000 9100000 18920000 27879000
2018 34510800 30843400 38882000 67677900
2019 74995300 90705300 55964700 72973300
2020 71533300 93440300 96532300 129320800
2021 127400000 126996700 134383300
Bukalapak 2017 28367000 30333333 60542000 80089000
2018 93589900 85138900 95932100 116000000
2019 115256600 89765800 42874100 39263300
2020 37633300 35288100 31409200 38583100
2021 34170000 29460000 30126700
Lazada 2017 51134000 58333333 96343000 131848000
2018 118000000 49990700 36405200 58288400
2019 52044500 49620200 27995900 28383300
2020 24400000 22021800 22674700 36260600
2021 30516700 27670000 27953300
Blibli 2017 25700000 27333333 49126000 52464000
2018 45940100 29044100 31303500 43097200

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Volume 7, Issue 1, January – 2022 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165
2019 32597200 38453000 21395600 26863300
2020 17600000 18307500 18695000 22413100
2021 19590000 18440000 16326700
Source: iPrice, 2021

Source: Data Processed, 2021

Fig. 1. Active Users of e-Commerce in Indonesia

Table I shows that the daily users of e-commerce fluctuate The existence of Covid-19 which occurred in March 2020
greatly. Shopee and Tokopedia e-commerce are e-commerce has succeeded in changing business activities and transactions
which experienced a fairly high increase in 2020 and 2021, from offline to online (Nurlela, 2021). It was found that with
where the Covid-19 pandemic occurred in that year. Online e- more than one million new e-commerce users during the
commerce users in the first quarter of 2020 experienced an Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia's internet traffic experienced
increase, a decrease, and even tended to be stable. It is known annual growth of 73 percent in the first quarter of 2020 and
that there are two e-commerce sites, such as Tokopedia and increased to 139 percent in the second quarter of 2020
Shopee, which have increased from the previous quarter, (Syamruddin et al., 2021).
although not significantly. Meanwhile, the other three e-
commerce sites, namely Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibli, tended This growth traffic seems to be an important factor in the
to experience a decline. e-commerce competition in Indonesia, especially in the top five
e-commerce which is the subject of this research. This can be
It is known that active users of Bukalapak and Lazada seen in active e-commerce users based on iPrice 2021 data,
during the pandemic, namely throughout 2020 and 2021, were where Tokopedia and Shopee are e-commerce that can capture
below 40 million, down drastically from the second quarter of and take advantage of changes in business activity amid this
2019 which was still at 89 - 90 million for Bukalapak and the pandemic by providing features that make it easier for
fourth quarter of 2017 for Lazada which reached 120 - 130 consumers and aggressively promote. Meanwhile, Bukalapak,
million. active user. Meanwhile, Blibli's e-commerce for users Lazada, and Blibli were even more negatively impacted by this
in Indonesia since 2017 is still under Tokopedia, Shopee, pandemic, causing active users on the three e-commerce
Bukalapak and Lazada. It is known that in 2017-2018 it had 40- platforms to experience a decline during the pandemic.
50 million active users, entering the first quarter to the third
quarter of 2020 during a pandemic, Blibli increasingly Table 1 also shows that in the third quarter of 2021,
experienced a decrease in users, only under 20 million active Tokopedia and Shopee are the two e-commerce sites that have
users, then in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the effects of the highest number of visits, both e-commerce being the most
Christmas and New Year, only 2021 Blibli users have dominating in Indonesia. The first rank is occupied by
increased. However, it will decline again throughout 2021, Tokopedia with the number of visits in the third quarter of 2021
which is an average of less than 20 million active users. as many as 158.1 million, the second position is occupied by
Shopee as many as 134.3 million, the third position is achieved
by Bukalapak at 30.1 million, e-commerce which occupies the
fourth position is achieved by Lazada with the number of visits
of 27.9 million, and the last occupied by Blibli with the number
of visits of 16.3 million.

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TABLE II. FORECASTING FIVE ACTIVE USERS OF E-COMMERCE

Source: Data Processed, 2021

Table 2 shows the forecasting results based on the data

obtained with the help of Microsoft Excel for the projection for Based on table 2 and figure 2, it can be seen that the
the period 2021-2022. Furthermore, the data will be used for predictions of active users of five e-commerce objects that have
projections using the moving average method, analyzing become objects have increased and some have decreased.
forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2022. To make it Tokopedia and Shopee experienced significant improvements
easier for readers to know trends (increases and decreases) and during the pandemic. In contrast to Tokopedia and Shopee,
competition among the five e-commerce objects used in this Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibli tend to experience a decline
study, then the results of forecasting table 2 above are presented during the pandemic. Figure 2 also shows that the competition
in figure 2 below. between Tokopedia and Shopee is quite fierce. These two e-
commerce are the most dominating in Indonesia. From early
2017 until the third quarter of 2021, Tokopedia was the most
Persaingan e-commerce di dominating, but based on graph 2, it was predicted that Shopee
would dominate Indonesia's market share in the fourth quarter
Indonesia of 2021 and throughout 2022. According to the forecasting
500000000 data, Tokopedia, which will be in second place, won the third
position, by Bukalapak, Blibli will be in the fourth position, and
0
Lazada will be in the fifth position. Figure 2 shows that Shopee
-5E+08 123412341234123412341234
will become the No. 1 in Indonesia, which peaked in the fourth
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 quarter of 2022, far behind Tokopedia, Bukalapak, Blibli, and
Lazada with a total of 191,619,155 visits.
Account Tokopedia Account Shopee
Account Bukalapak Account Lazada When viewed from the increase in Tokopedia and
Shopee, there was a not too significant increase in the second
Account Blibli Forecast Tokopedia
quarter of 2021. At that time there was a big day like Ramadan
Forecast Shopee Forecast Bukalapak so there was a surge in active users because Tokopedia and
Forecast Lazada Forecast Blibli Shopee held Ramadan promos. However, there was a
significant decline in the third quarter of 2021 at Shopee and
Source: Data Processed, 2021 Tokopedia. The third quarter of 2021 will occur in July,
Fig. 2. Users Forecasting of E-Commerce in Indonesia August, and September which is in line with Indonesia's

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ISSN No:-2456-2165
economic conditions. According to data from Badan Pusat throughout 2020 and 2021, the three platforms experienced a
Statistik (BPS), the Indonesian economy continued to grow drastic decrease inactive users. Other results show that there is
positively in the third quarter of 2021 although it slowed down a prediction of an increase in frequency in the second quarter
compared to the previous quarter, in line with the spread of the of 2021 and the second quarter of 2022. This can happen due
Covid-19 delta variant. Indonesia's economy in the third to Ramadan moments and holidays such as Eid al-Fitr in April
quarter of 2021 grew by 3.51% (YoY), lower than the previous – May for 2021 and 2022. Tight competition between Shopee
quarter's achievement of 7.07% (YoY). Meanwhile, and Tokopedia is expected to continue throughout 2022. Both
Bukalapak, Blibli, and Lazada did not increase and even tend have the largest market share in Indonesia. Based on iPrice
to decrease. data, Tokopedia is in the first position with average traffic
reaching 158.1 million visits per month during the third quarter
Forecasting for five e-commerce sites in 2022 is based on of 2021. An increase of 7% from the previous quarter of 147.8
user trends over the past five years. For the past three years, the million visits. While the second place is occupied by Shopee
first and second positions of the largest e-commerce in with average traffic of 134.4 million visits. This figure
Indonesia have always been occupied by Tokopedia and increased by 5.8% from the previous quarter of 127 million
Shopee. Bukalapak, Lazada, and Blibli are always below it, visits. The results and projections in this study are expected to
therefore the trend forecasting for 2022 for these three e- be the basis for consideration by the government and various
commerce is expected to decline until the end of the quarter. marketplace stakeholders in Indonesia in reading the trends of
e-commerce competition in the future and assisting the
Meanwhile, tough competition is expected to continue recovery of the Indonesian economy amid the Covid-19
between Tokopedia and Shopee throughout 2022. In the first pandemic. The data used in this study only involves data in a
quarter, Shopee is estimated to be above Tokopedia with a fairly short time, so it is necessary to carry out further research
projection of more than 150 million users. This is in line with with a wider research design and scope and a longer forecasting
the big target of 1.1 New Year Sale by Shopee and the planned period. Suggestions for further research are to add sales
expansion of the European market starting with the goal of transaction variables to produce a more mature forecast of
Poland for the beginning of the year (Ruhulessin, 2021). future trends.
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