Brokers That I Use/Recommend
Brokers That I Use/Recommend
The intention of this watch list is not only to give you stock ideas but also broaden your knowledge base.
Before you dig through my watch list, please read through the material given, as it will not only help you understand how I trade but hopefully illuminate your insight into
the stock world. Thank you again for purchasing my watch list. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or if you have any suggestions please let me know by
emailing me [email protected].
-Interactive Brokers
Pros: They have a great shorts and they are very well prices
Cons: Terrible charting software
-Trade Station:
Pros: Excellent charting software, great fills, and very well prices.
Cons: Just like TD Ameritrade, they don't have a lot of shorts on stocks. They have more then TD but less then IB
The 6 components:
1. The Tenken-Sen Line
2. The Kinjun-Sen Line
3. Senkou Span A
4. Senkou Span B
5. Kumo
6. Chinkou Span Line
Once calculated, these pieces form the indicator set known as the Ichimoku Cloud. In the image of the SPY daily chart shown below, you can see the
components clearly labeled.
Calculating the Individual Components:
The Tenken-Sen Line: It is known as the turning line and is a signal of a region of minor support or resistance. This component is calculated by taking the
highest high and the lowest low divided by two over the past 9 periods (18 periods for me).
The Kinjun-Sen Line: Known as the confirmation line. This component also serves as a signal for support and resistance levels. Many traders use this line as a
level for a trailing stop. It also serves as an indicator of trend. If price is above the Kinjun-Sen Line then the stock is in bullish territory, likewise if it is below the
line it is in bearish territory. This line is calculated by taking the midpoint between the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 periods
(52 periods for me).
Senkou Span A: This line forms one of the boundaries of the ‘cloud.’ If the stock is trading above the line then the line will serve as a major support level. If
price is below this line it will serve as a level of major resistance. This component is calculated by taking the average of the Tenkan-Sen and Kinjun-Sen lines.
This line is unique in that the results of this calculation are plotted 26 periods ahead (52 periods for me). This means that today’s Senkou Span A line was
actually plotted 26 days ago (52 days for me).
Senkou Span B: This line forms the other boundary of the ‘cloud.’ This line serves as a second level of support or resistance and is calculated by taking the
midpoint between the highest high and the lowest low over the past 52 periods (104 periods for me). Like the Senkou Span A line, this is also plotted 26
periods ahead (52 periods for me).
Kumo: This is the shaded area, located between the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines, that is used to form ‘the cloud’ itself.
Chinkou Span Line: This line is also known as the lagging indicator. This line is the current bar’s closing price plotted 26 periods back (52 periods for me).
The lagging indicator is often used as confirmation of signals and can also serve as a support and resistance level. The lagging indicator can also assist a
trader in confirming the direction and strength of trends.
The cloud for the day trader: Using the cloud on an intra-day basis can show a trader where intra-day levels of support and resistance are. A day trader can
also use the cloud to find the highest probability setups.
The cloud for the swing trader: Using the cloud can help the swing trader avoid trading against trends and can help steer them away from stocks that are
in neutral territory. Using the cloud can also point them to stocks that are near breakout points.
The cloud for the long-term trader: Using cloud pullbacks can point out opportunities to enter or add to positions. The long-term trader can use the cloud
to determine when it is time to exit a position. Since the cloud is forward looking, the cloud can also give a heads up before trend might turn the other way.
No matter which of the above categories you might fall into, you will be able to benefit from using the cloud. As a trader I mostly fall into to all three
categories. Most of my stock trades are either day trades or swing trades. Using a shorter time frame may change the way I use the cloud but the basic
concepts stay the same. I use the support and resistance levels the cloud provides as levels for stops or profit targets. The cloud also tells me when I should
enter or exit a trade. Understand that there is no one time frame that is better but I always look at longer time frames to see where true support and
resistance is. Remember that, the longer the time frame the more weight each line holds. That is why you always need to be looking at the
12 month time-frame, 4 hour time-frame, and 1 hour time frame. 15 and 30 minute for intra-day to find good points is fine as well. But just know, that often
times you need to look at the forest and not just the tree. =)
Videos On The Ichimoku Cloud:
When using the Ichimoku cloud, I also use two other indicators with it. RSI and Slow Stochastics. These are normal settings.
On A Long Swing Trade For A Stock: When it comes to swinging a trade long, we want a slew of things to be in our favor. First and foremost we want the
fundamental aspect of the story to be there or some kind of catalyst. We want RSI to peak above 70 on the 12 month daily chart, we want price to be
breaking out of the cloud, and we want the future cloud to twist green. If all three of these aspects align we can have some the strongest moves up.
On A Short Swing Trade For A Stock: When it comes to swinging a trade short, we want to see a slew of things in our favor. First and foremost we want the
fundamentals aspect of the stock story to be bad or a bad catalyst. We want RSI to be below 70 or breaking below 30 on the 12 month daily chart, we want
price to be just breaking out of the cloud, and we want the future cloud to twist red. If all three of these aspects align we can have some the strongest
moves down.
Market Rebound Trades: Often times in the normal cycle of the market we can have market pullbacks. These pullbacks will most likely cause other stocks
like $APPLE, $BABA, $BOFI, $LNKD, and many others to pull back. These stocks pull back with the market. Understand that 3 out of 4 stocks follow the
market and thus when the market turns so will these stocks. Often times these stock will pull back and retest the Kinju-Sen Line. So how can we play the
market rebound? In order for this chart pattern to work we want to have a stock that has pulled back for no reason. Meaning it can not have pulled back for
any other reason other then the market being bad. Criteria number two is, we want to look at Slow Stochastic and see if has now moved up above 20.
Criteria number three, we want to see price reclaim the Kinju-Sen Line and hold it. If we choose to go long we want to be buying at the Kinju-Sen Line.
As the market starts to recover so will these stocks.
Insight Into Level 2
Level II Quotes- Level II can provide insight into a stock’s price action. It can tell you what type of traders are buying or selling a stock, where the stock is likely
to head in the near term, and much more. Level II is essentially the order book for NASDAQ stocks. When orders are placed they are placed through market
makers and other market participants. Level II will show a list of the best bid and ask prices from each of these participants giving you insight into the price
action. Knowing who has an interest in a stock can be useful information.
Important Players On Level 2:
Market Makers (MM)-These are the players who provide liquidity in the marketplace. This means that they are required to buy when nobody else is
buying or sell when nobody else is selling. They make the market.
Electronic Communication Networks (ECN)-Electronic communication networks are computerized order placement systems. It is important to note
that anyone can trade through ECNs, even large institutional traders.
Wholesalers (Order flow firms)-Many Online brokers sell their order flow to wholesalers; these order flow firms then execute orders on behalf of the
Online brokers (usually retail traders.
The Ax-the most important market maker to look for is called the ax. This is the market maker that controls the price action in a given stock. You can
find out which market maker this is by watching the level II action for a few days-the market maker who consistently dominates the price action is the ax.
Many day traders make sure to trade with the ax because it typically results in a higher probability of success.
Level II quotes can tell you a lot about what is happening with a given stock: You can tell what kind of buying is taking place - retail or institutional -
by looking at the type of market participants involved. Large institutions do not use the same market makers as retail traders.
If you look at ECN order sizes for irregularities, you can tell when institutional players are trying to keep the buying quiet (which can mean a buyout or
accumulation is taking place). We'll take a look at how you can detect similar irregularities below. By trading with the ax when the price is trending, you can
greatly increase your odds of a successful trade. Remember, the ax provides liquidity, but its traders are out there to make a profit just like anyone else. By
looking for trades that take place in between the bid and ask, you can tell when a strong trend is about to come to an end. This is because these trades are
often placed by large traders who take a small loss in order to make sure that they get out of the stock in time.
Market makers can hide their order sizes by placing small orders and updating them whenever they get a fill. They do this in order to unload or pick
up a large order without tipping off other traders and scaring them away. After all, nobody is going to attempt to push through a 500,000 share resistance,
but if a persistent 10,000 share resistance is there, traders may still think it is a beatable barrier.
Market makers also occasionally try to deceive other traders using their order sizes and timing. For example, JPHQ may place a large offer to get short sellers
on board, only to pull the order and place a large bid. This will force the new shorts to cover as day traders react to the large bid.
Market makers can also hide their actions by trading through ECNs. Remember, ECNs can be used by anyone, so it is often difficult to tell whether large
ECN orders are retail or institutional.
Conclusion
Level II can give you unique insight into a stock's price action, but there are also a lot of things that market makers can do to disguise their true
intentions. Therefore, the average trader cannot rely on level II alone. Rather, he or she should use it in conjunction with other forms of analysis when
determining whether to buy or sell a stock.
Attached above are a set of rules and principals for trading that were handed down to me in Superman’s Bootcamp/Trading Service. If you follow these rules
and you have your own trade plan, you can compound wealth. A lot of times, when newbies get into the stock market, we tend to over position size, never
cut loses quickly and HOPE, way to much. This is the downfall of most traders. However, if you train yourself not to be like this and follow a set of rules you
will find that you will do much better in the long run. Remember, no one is 100% accurate. Not Superman, not Tim Sykes, no one. It is hard sometimes to
follow these rules, but when you break these sets of rules you will lose a lot. To achieve success in the stock market it is about minimizing your loses and
maximizing your gains, to compound wealth.
From my own experience, outside of following these rules, I think another important aspect to the stock market, is stock market psychology. In the
psychological world, this is something that is rarely talked about. In essence, stock trading is a form of gambling, to those who do not have rules and
discipline. It can have very addictive qualities and often times can take people to the cleaners if they are not careful. To illustrate this point, below is
comprehensive synopsis of trading psychology and charting on swing trading.
The psychology behind trading stocks is the force that moves the stock market. A stock chart is nothing more than a picture of human emotions. Painted on
that canvas are the emotions of greed, fear, hope, and euphoria. As a disciplined trader, you capitalize on the psychological thoughts that plague other traders.
Should I buy?
Should I sell?
Should I take profits?
Should I take a loss?
These are some of the questions that destroy trading accounts because novice traders asking these questions do not have a plan. If you asked a professional
trader one of these questions he or she would say, "I don't know. What does your plan tell you to do." So what ends up happening? They get excited and buy at
the worst possible time. Then the stock reverses. Fear creeps in and then the stock goes lower... and lower... and lower. Finally the pain becomes too much to
bear so they sell taking a huge loss. You cannot take big losses and expect to be a profitable swing trader. Now let's look at the psychology behind what
happens when a stock does go in the desired direction: There is a sense of Excitement! Euphoria! Yeah, I'm making money! "I had better sell to lock in these
profits since I have had several losing trades in a row." The trader then ends up selling too soon! Look at what just happened in the above example.
The un-disciplined trader has just done the opposite! They have let their losses get big and they have limited their winners! All of this mental anguish can be
eliminated by having a decent trading strategy and the mental discipline to stick with it. Write down a plan for the trade before you trade the stock. Then
trade it according to the plan that YOU have written. Remember that you have devised a plan before you got into the trade when your emotions were stable.
Now you can trade your plan with confidence. For most novice traders, it is not their strategy that is causing them to lose money. It is themselves that is their
biggest enemy. Traders psychology on a stock chart Learning to trade stocks and applying technical analysis to charts is mostly about human psychology
- not chart patterns and candlestick patterns themselves. You have to understand the psychology behind these patterns. Take a look at the following chart:
Here is a breakdown of what happens:
Breakout Traders - These traders bought the breakout. They operate under the "greater fool theory". They are just praying that other traders come along and
buy higher than they did.
Novice Traders - These traders just have no idea what they are doing. There are buying shares of stock that the breakout traders are now selling to them.
Momentum Traders - These traders are buying the pullback and tend to buy near the 10 MA. They are likely going to put their stop below the low of the
hammer.
Swing Traders - This is where we come in. The stock falls below that hammer and the momentum traders get stopped out. By now most of the novice traders
and momentum traders have sold. See how the volume has tapered off? Previous resistance now becomes support.
Novice Traders - Once again, the novice traders are buying at the worst possible time. We need these traders so that we can sell our shares to them and make
a profit.
Although this is all just speculation, the idea of this passage is to give you an example of the psychology behind each traders mind set. If you can learn this
and follow rules, you will be able to better predict what other traders are thinking and adjust accordingly. If you have any questions comments or concerns,
please let me know.
Dark pools are an ominous-sounding term for private exchanges or forums for trading securities; unlike stock exchanges, dark pools are not accessible by
the investing public. They are so named for their complete lack of transparency. Dark pools came about primarily to facilitate block trading by institutional
investors, who did not wish to impact the markets with their large orders and consequently obtain adverse prices for their trades. While dark pools have
been cast in a very unfavorable light in Michael Lewis’ bestseller “Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt,” the reality is that they do serve a purpose. However, their
lack of transparency makes them vulnerable to potential conflicts of interest by their owners and predatory trading practices by some high-frequency traders.
Rationale for dark pools
The current controversy surrounding dark pools may lead one to think that they are a recent innovation, but they have actually been around since
the late 1980s. Non-exchange trading in the U.S. has surged in recent years, accounting for about 40% of all U.S. stock trades in 2014 compared with 16% six
years ago. Dark pools have been at the forefront of this trend towards off-exchange trading, accounting for 15% of U.S. volume as of 2014, according to figures
given by industry insiders.
Why did dark pools come into existence? Consider the options available to a large institutional investor who wanted to sell 1 million shares of XYZ
stock prior to the advent of non-exchange trading. This investor could either (a) work the order through a floor trader over the course of a day or two and hope
for a decent VWAP (volume weighted average price); (b) split the order up into say five pieces and sell 200,000 shares per day, or (c) sell small amounts until a
large buyer could be found who was willing to take up the full amount of the remaining shares. The market impact of a 1-million sale of XYZ shares could stil
be sizable, regardless of whether the investor chose (a), (b), or (c), since it was not possible to keep the identity or intention of the investor secret in a stock
exchange transaction. With options (b) and (c), the risk of a decline in the period while the investor was waiting to sell the remaining shares was also
significant. Dark pools were one solution to these issues.
The institutional seller has a better chance of getting a buyer for the full share block in a dark pool, since it is a forum dedicated to large investors.
The possibility of price improvement also exists if the mid-point of the quoted bid and ask price is used for the transaction. Of course, this assumes that there
is no information leakage of the investor’s proposed sale, and that the dark pool is not vulnerable to high-frequency trading (HFT) predators who could
engage in front-running once they get a whiff of the investor’s trading intentions.
The institutional seller has a better chance of getting a buyer for the full share block in a dark pool, since it is a forum dedicated to large investors.
The possibility of price improvement also exists if the mid-point of the quoted bid and ask price is used for the transaction. Of course, this assumes that there
is no information leakage of the investor’s proposed sale, and that the dark pool is not vulnerable to high-frequency trading (HFT) predators who could
engage in front-running once they get a whiff of the investor’s trading intentions.
As of April 2014, there were 45 dark pools in the U.S., consisting of the following three types:
Broker-dealer owned:
These dark pools are set up by large broker-dealers for their clients, and may also include their own proprietary traders. These dark pools derive their
own prices from order flow, so there is an element of price discovery. Examples of such dark pools, of which there were 19 as of April 2014, include Credit
Suisse’s Cross-finder, Goldman Sachs’ Sigma X, Citi’s Citi Match and Citi Cross, and Morgan Stanley’s MS Pool. Agency broker or exchange-owned: These are
dark pools that act as agents, not as principals. As prices are derived from exchanges – such as the midpoint of the National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO), there
is no price discovery. Examples of agency broker dark pools include Instinet, Liquidnet, and ITG Posit, while exchange-owned dark pools include those
offered by BATS Trading and NYSE Euronext. Electronic market makers: These are dark pools offered by independent operators like Getco and Knight, who
operate as principals for their own account. Like the broker-dealer owned dark pools, their transaction prices are not calculated from the NBBO, so there is
price discovery.
Pool participants may not get the best price: The lack of transparency in dark pools can also work again a pool participant, since there is no
guarantee that the institution’s trade was executed at the best price. Lewis points out in “Flash Boys” that a surprisingly large proportion of broker-dealer’s
dark pool trades get executed within the pools – a process known as internalization – even in cases where the broker-dealer has a small share of the U.S.
market. As Lewis notes, the dark pool’s opaqueness can also give rise to conflicts of interest if a broker-dealer’s proprietary traders trade against pool clients,
or if the broker-dealer sells special access to the dark pool to HFT firms.
Vulnerability to predatory trading by HFTs: The recent controversy over dark pools has been spurred by Lewis’ claims that dark pool client orders
are ideal fodder for predatory trading practices by some HFT firms, which employ tactics such as “pinging” dark pools to unearth large hidden orders, and then
engage in front running or latency arbitrage. Small average trade size reduces need for dark pools: Somewhat surprisingly, the average trade size in dark
pools has declined to only about 200 shares, Exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), who are seeking to stem their loss of trading market-share
to dark pools and alternative trading systems, claim that this small trade size makes the case for dark pools less than compelling.
Curb appeal: The recent HFT controversy has drawn significant regulatory attention to dark pools. Regulators have generally viewed dark pools with
suspicion because of their lack of transparency, and the controversy may lead to renewed efforts to curb their appeal. One measure which may help
exchanges reclaim market share from dark pools and other off-exchange venues could be a pilot proposal from the Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) to introduce a “trade-at” rule. The rule would require brokerages to send client trades to exchanges rather than dark pools, unless they can execute the
trades at a meaningfully better price than that available in the public market. If implemented, this rule could present a serious challenge to the long-term
viability of dark pools.
Bottom Line
Dark pools provide pricing and cost advantages to buy-side institutions such as mutual funds and pension funds, and these benefits ultimately
accrue to the retail investors who own these funds. However, dark pools’ lack of transparency makes them susceptible to conflicts of interest by their
owners and predatory trading practices by HFT firms. The recent HFT controversy has drawn increasing regulatory attention to dark pools, and
implementation of the proposed “trade-at” rule could pose a threat to their long-term viability.
If you zoom in you can see the writing but let me explain them here as well. This window is secondary detached window that I have open in ThinkorSwim for
market internals.
The top left in order to pull this chart out you need to type in $ADVN-$DECN. This chart will automatically pop up. I just added ichimoku to it, to see if the
same rules applied to market internals...And guess what they do still hold true. The advance-decline line is what I use to look for Dark Pool activity, whether
the pressure is buying or selling. This line is what I consider to be Dark Pools. If you pulled up a chart of the S&P 500, you would see that every time it went
from hight to low so did the S&P 500. To otheres this is known as the breadth line, but I consider this not only the breadth level but also Dark Pools. This is
set to a time frame of 15 mintues on 30 Days.
Top right ticker is $UVOL-$DVOL. This shows the number ot ticks ticking up on the NYSE verse the number of ticks ticking down. I use this for
confirmation of trend. This is set to a time frame of 15 minutes on 30 Days.
Bottom Right ticker is $ADVRLC-$DECLRCL and this is how I keep track of the cycles that are taking place within the Russell 2000. I keep my eye on this
because, if weakness starts to show in small cap land first, it is a warning sign to me that the market may be starting to make a move down. I confirm this with
thee above two, as well as, ichimoku. This is set to a time frame of 15 minutes on 30 Days.
Bottom Left ticker is $TICK. One thing you need to understand that anything that goes above the outer blue band at the top is considered to be a buy
program in the S&P 500 or other indexes and anything below the teal line in this case is considered to be a sell program. This is how I’m able to tell you if an
algo program was of 900 or 1200 buy or sell. Also some people consider really low ticks and really high ticks to be either some kind of top forming or some
kind of bottom but I do not use it in this way. Here is a TOS code, that dings every time high or low tick is achieved, when it breaks pace the blue or teal line.
I will give you the whole TOS code as well. This my code for my whole setup. All you have to do is click it, save it and then you can have it all set for you.
My Full Setup:
http://tos.mx/0zy2z8
MOC Buy Or Sell Imbalance
Sometimes in chat you will see me post that the MOC is 200 million buy or sell and many people ask me what that is. Every time I release the my watch list,
I will tell you what the MOC buy or sell is. This is a good way for you to judge the market in terms of the close. Often times if the imbalance is on the sell side,
we would expect the S&P 500 to move down after hours and or on the open of the following day. Vice versa. This is a number I like to look at gauge the
overall thoughts of the stock market world.
Definition of MOC:
A non-limit (market) order executed as close to the end of the market day as possible. All market on close (MOC) orders must be submitted by 3:45pm on the
NYSE and by 3:50pm EST on the NASDAQ. Neither exchange allows for the modification or cancellation of MOC orders after those times. This is an order
entered sometime during the day that grants discretionary power to the trader, so that, as near as possible to the end of the trading day, a market order will
be executed. MOC orders are sometimes used as a limit order qualifier, making the limit order a MOC order if the limit wasn't reached earlier in the day. In
addition, MOC orders allow investors to buy or sell a stock that might move drastically before the next morning's open - perhaps as the result of a known
after-hours earnings announcement or news story. On the negative side, some traders believe that MOC orders, by virtue of the buying/selling pressure they
create, cost traders a tick or two.
NYSE Tick Code: This code has to be added to the studys part of the $TICK. If you dont it will just look like a bunch of lines, with now bands around it.
input showOnlyToday = YES;
input Market_Open_Time = 0930;
input Market_Close_Time = 1600;
input tickAveragePeriod = 20;
input bollingerBandFactor = 2.0;
rec regHoursHigh = if(high > regHoursHigh[1] and marketOpen, high, if(marketOpen and !firstBar, regHoursHigh[1], high));
plot TICK_High = if(marketOpen and shouldPlot, regHoursHigh, Double.nan);
TICK_High.SetDefaultColor(color.orange);
TICK_High.SetLineWeight(1);
rec regHoursLow = if(low < regHoursLow[1] and marketOpen, low, if(marketOpen and !firstBar, regHoursLow[1],low));
plot TICK_Low = if(marketOpen and shouldPlot, regHoursLow, double.nan);
TICK_Low.SetLineWeight(1);
TICK_Low.setDefaultColor(color.red);
plot ExtremeTick = if(isLow and !isHigh, low, if(isHigh and !isLow , high, double.nan));
ExtremeTick.setStyle(curve.POINTS);
ExtremeTick.setPaintingStrategy(paintingStrategy.LINE_VS_TRIANGLES);
ExtremeTick.setDefaultColor(color.yellow);
ExtremeTick.setLineWeight(3);
plot tickSMA = average(tickClose,tickAveragePeriod);
tickSMA.setLineWeight(3);
tickSMA.setDefaultColor(color.white);
plot zero = 0;
zero.setDefaultColor(color.red);
zero.setLineWeight(2);
Know that the market internals only functions during market hours. Generally between 8:30 a.m to about 3:00 p.m/.
StockCharts.com
If you dont know outside of the ThinkorSwim platform I also use stockcharts. As of right now, I have several scans for stockcharts.com and
I am working on converting them to TOS, so that way both codes exist. However, I just wanted to share with you all the codes that I currently have. I
n order to run scans on Stockcharts.com, you do have to pay for it but I do have a 20% any subscription code. I found this in a book one time that I
was reading and it is good for one subscription and then you can never use it again. If this code no longer works for you please let me know but it
should.
1. Do not fight the tape. When traders refer to this, what they mean is, do not fight the FED, mainly Yellen. One must understand that, as
long as the government keeps propping up the economy, the stock market will keep hitting all time highs. When the the FED stops this
unbelievable bail out and printing of money, the stock market will pullback and/or crash. Also if you are a futures trader understand when
it comes to trading the S&P e-mini 500, no matter what the trend up or down she will have influence on it either it jumping back up or
sliding back down. As of late, she has been very nice to the markets and every-time she speaks the market jumps about 30 points.
2. Understand what kind of stock you are trading. There seems to be two rules of thought. One is chart biased and the other is fundamental
biased. As a retail trader you need to know both sides of the game. You need to know who the players are and how they influence the
market. Even each commodity, like oil, has a big player. So if Yellen controls the S&P 500, then it would be safe to say that OPEC controls oil.
As we have seen in recent past, oil has done nothing but tank. This is because OPEC refuses to cut oil prices and now there is a surplus of oil running around.
3. Understand what market divergence and convergence is. Its a very simple concept that many people ignore. Market divergence is when the overall
market is moving up and the other market is overall moving down. When this happens, this can be some of the most powerful indications for the validity
for the move. Take example the Oil market and the S&P 500. If you look at each chart just on the one year time frame, you will see that Oil has been trending
down, as the S&P 500 has been making new highs. Convergence is the opposite of this, and this is when two entities move together like the S&P 500 and
Apple.
4. Simple confirmations of trends. Lets say we see the S&P starting to break slide downwards from its highs and break below certain equilibrium
points on the cloud. We would expect Gold or /GC or @GC, start to trend upwards. If this happens, one confirms the other and therefore adds validity to t
he move up or down. Almost like a confirmation. The S&P and the VXX are the same way as well. If the S&P starts to fall, so will the VXX and vice versa. As
these two entities seem to be confirmations of one another.
5. Understand macro economics such as deflation, leverage, inflation and bond backed programs. Understand other macro economies such as
Japan, China, Switzerland, and the EU, as they can cause certain reactions on the US stock market.
6. Understand that the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent.
7. Always have a plan for entering and exiting a trade no matter if it is a day trade, swing trade or chart trade.
8. There is no one indicator that will help you achieve consistent results. Indicators are helpful but they can not substitute your brain.
9. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance
of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses
or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really
believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your
expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.
10. I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or
being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves
caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done
to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis
to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work
11. If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your
mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you
believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique
12. To whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable
will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully.
13. There are five fundamental truths to trading.
-Anything can happen
-You can make money without knowing the future
-There is a random distribution between wins and losses, that actually defines an edge in the market
-An edge is just something that happens more times then something else
-Every moment in the market is unique