Production Operations Management and TQM

1
Demand Forecasting

Module 002 Demand Forecasting

At the end of this module, you are expected to:

1. Identify terms related to demand forecasting.
2. Analyze the importance and objectives of demand forecasting
3. Evaluate factors which affect demand forecasting
4. Examine the objectives of demand forecasting

Introduction to Forecasting
According to 1.2 Forecasting, planning and goals. (n.d.). Retrieved June 3, 2018, from
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/1/2, the term, forecasting means prediction the future as
accurately as possible. , available information which includes historical data and knowledge
of any future events that might impact the forecasts, should be given. Through forecasting,
decisions about production scheduling, personnel, and transportation can be made
effectively, and a guide to long-term strategic planning can be provided through the said
process.
Forecasting can play a relevant role in many business areas, and so it should be an
integral part of activities related to the management's decision-making. According to the
same source, business organizations nowadays require short-term, medium-term, and
long-term forecasts depending on a specific application.
A. Short-term forecasts
These are needed for personnel scheduling and scheduling of production and
transportation. Forecasts of demand are also required in the scheduling process.
B. Medium-term forecasts
To determine the future resource requirements, these forecasts are needed.
These are done to purchase raw materials, buy machinery and equipment, and to
hire personnel.
C. Long-term forecasts
These are utilized in strategic planning, wherein market opportunities,
environmental factors, and internal resources should be taken into account.

Course Module
 Most of the business organization's decisions are made under risk and uncertainty
conditions. Because it faces both internal and external risks – failure of technology, high
competition, inflation, labor unrest, recession, and government laws change. Adverse effects of risks
can be lessened by determining the demand or sales prospects for its products in the future. What
is demand forecasting? According to Demand Forecasting: Concept, Significance, Objectives and
Factors. (2015, August 11). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand-forecasting/demand-forecasting-concept-
significance-objectives-and-factors/3557, demand forecasting is a systematic process which
involves demand anticipation for the organization's products in the future under a set of
uncontrollable and competitive forces.
From the same source, there are other popular definitions of the term, demand
forecasting, and these are as follows:
1. Demand estimation or forecasting refers to the process of finding values for demand
in the future. – Douglas, Evan J.
2. Demand forecasting is a sales estimate during a specified time in the future based on
the proposed marketing plan and a set of specific uncontrollable and competitive
forces.

Through demand forecasting, an organization is enabled to make various decisions related

to the business, such as the production process planning, raw material purchasing, fund
management, and product price decisions. A business organization can forecast demand by
making own estimates called guess estimate or taking market research agencies or specialized
consultants' help.

In every business, demand plays a critical role in the areas of management. It aids in the
reduction of risks involved in the business activities and in making important decisions. It also
provides insights into capital investment and expansion decisions of business organizations.
Demand forecasting, according to the same source, is important in the following points:
1. Fulfilling objectives
Demand forecasting aids in fulfilling the pre-decided objectives of any
business organization. Because a business firm estimates the current demand for its
products, it enables the business to achieve its set goals and objectives.
2. Preparing the budget
Demand forecasting plays a critical role in the budget-making by estimating
the cost and expected income or revenues. For instance, a business firm has
forecasted that the demand for its product, which is priced at RS 20, would be 20,
would be 200,000. In this case, the total expected revenue would be 20 * 200,000
=Rs 4,000,000. In the given an example, a business organization is enabled to
prepare its budget.
3. Stabilizing employment and production
Demand forecasting aids an organization in controlling its production and
activities related to recruitment. Producing goods according to the product
forecasted demand helps in avoiding resource wastage of business organization.
It also helps a business firm to hire human resources according to how much is
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Demand Forecasting

required. For instance, an organization may opt for extra labor if it expects a rise
in its product demand to fulfill the said increase in demand.
4. Expanding organizations
In deciding for business expansion, demand forecasting is a big help. If
the expected demand for the products is higher, the business firm may plan to
expand further, while if in case product demand is expected to fall, the business
firm may cut down investing in the business.
5. Taking management decisions
Demand forecasting helps in critical decision-making, such as plant
capacity decision, determining the raw material requirement, and ensuring the
labor and capital availability.
6. Evaluating performance
Demand forecasting also aids in making corrections. For instance, if a
business organization's product demand is less, corrective actions may be taken
by the said firm and improve on the demand level by enhancing the product
quality or spending more on the advertisement.
7. Helping the government
Demand forecasting also enables the government to coordinate activities
related to import and export and plan international trade.

Demand forecasting has short and long-term objectives and according to Demand
Forecasting: Concept, Significance, Objectives and Factors. (2015, August 11). Retrieved June 4,
2018, from http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand-forecasting/demand-forecasting-
concept-significance-objectives-and-factors/3557, these are the following :

Course Module
 Figure 1 - Short and Long-Term Objectives of Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting: Concept, Significance, Objectives and Factors. (2015, August 11). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand-forecasting/demand-forecasting-concept-significance-objectives-and-factors/3557

A. Short-Term Objectives
1. Formulating production policy
Demand forecasting helps in covering the demand and supply gap of the
product. It aids in estimating the raw material requirement in the future so that the
raw material regular supply can be maintained. It helps in the utilization of
resources into the maximum level because operations are planned according to
forecasts. Likewise, with the help of demand forecasting, human resource
requirements are met easily.

2. Formulating price policy

One of the most important demand forecasting objectives wherein a business
organization sets prices of products according to its demand in the market. For
instance, there is an economic depression, or in a recession phase, the demand for
products falls. It that happens, the business firm sets low prices for its products.
3. Controlling sales
Setting sales targets that serve as the basis for evaluating sales performance
is another objective of demand forecasting. A business firm may make demand
forecasts for different regions and fix sales targets for each accordingly.

4. Arranging finance
Demand forecasting aims to help the business organization to estimate its
financial requirements. It helps in ensuring the proper liquidity within the firm.
B. Long-Term Objectives
1. Deciding the production capacity
Demand forecasting aims to help the organization to determine the size
requirement of the plant for production. The said plant size should conform to
the organization's sales requirements.
2. Planning long-term activities
Demand forecasting helps in long-term planning. For instance, if the
forecasted demand for the firm's products is high, then the said business firm may
plan to invest in expansion and project development in the long term.

Demand forecasting is a proactive process that helps determine the products needed, where,
when, and in what quantities. According to the same source, some factors affect demand
forecasting, and these are the following:
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Demand Forecasting

Figure 2 - Factors Affecting Demand Forecasting

Demand Forecasting: Concept, Significance, Objectives and Factors. (2015, August 11). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand-forecasting/demand-forecasting-concept-significance-objectives-and-factors/3557

1. Types of goods
Types of goods affect the process of demand forecasting. Goods can be new and
established ones. New goods are those who are yet to be introduced in the market while
established goods are those who are existing already in the market. Information
regarding the substitutes, demand, and competition level of goods is known only in
established goods while forecast demand for the new goods is difficult.

2. Competition level
Level of competition influence the demand forecasting process. In a highly
competitive market, product demand also depends on the number of competitors.
Likewise, in a highly competitive market, a risk is always present for new entrants. In
the said case, demand forecasting becomes challenging and difficult.

3. Price of goods
Prices of goods act as a major factor that influences the process of demand
forecasting. The demand forecasts of a business organization are affected by a change in
their policies in prices. In such a case, estimating the exact demand for products is
difficult.

4. Level of technology
Technology level constitutes a relevant factor in obtaining reliable demand
forecasts. If a rapid technology change is present, the existing technology or product
may become obsolete.

5. Economic viewpoint

Course Module
 Economic viewpoint plays a critical role in obtaining demand forecasts. For
instance, if positive development in an economy is present - globalization and high
investment level, the business firm's demand forecast would be positive.

Forecasting Approaches

According to Constantino, T. (2015, February 17). Operations management

forecasting. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from https://www.slideshare.net/Euwinx/operations-
management-forecasting, forecasting approaches include qualitative and quantitative
approaches.
1. Qualitative approach includes the methods consisting mainly of inputs, which
are subjective and often defy precise numerical description. The historical data
projection or the associative models that attempt to use explanatory or causal
variables is involved in making a forecast.
2. Quantitative approach is consists of objective or hard data analysis. Personal
biases that sometimes contaminate qualitative methods are usually avoided.
Approach or a combination of both approaches may be used to develop a forecast
in practice.

Cost Implication and Decision Making using Forecasting

According to Forecasting as a tool for decision making (n.d) Retrieved June 5, 2018,
from http://www.sascommunity.org/sugi/SUGI88/Sugi-13-35%20Fingerman.pdf, the use
of business forecasts is the key to successful business operations, planning, and strategy.
Useful forecast about future uncertain events is essential since business planning and
strategy entail decisions and actions that will have consequences in the future. Thus, a
significant source of information for management is the business forecast. A sales or demand
forecast usually needs forecasting because information regarding capacity planning, product
mix, budgets, advertising, and promotion will be provided by it. Items to be forecasted
include the prices of raw materials, supplies and required products, prices of competitors,
and general market prices. Forecasting is always an important part of planning, strategy,
and operation.
Likewise, according to Costly environments - forecasting project schedules for time
and costs. (n.d.). Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/costly-environments-project-schedules-time-
costs-5734, More than ever before, at present mistakes appear so costly, and rewards for
success are attractive. Likewise, management in making decisions carries with it some
real consequence costs, costs associated with the wrong application of valuable resources
over and over again. Usually, forecasting errors lie at the root of all-important tie and cost
tradeoffs of scheduling because managers can compensate for unexpected delays and
capitalize on opportunities as projects unfold make moves.

Forecasts that compare favorably with actual outcomes and have a reasonable
chance of occurring are involved in good time estimates. Beyond this, the consequences of
being wrong should be considered in good forecasts in costly environments. Likewise, a
reliable bias in minimizing the forecast error costs should be provided to managers.
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Demand Forecasting

With the above-given present and possible future situations, as production

operations manager, deciding on the matters of forecasting and applying it in planning
and using strategies to increase profit should be done effectively.

Forecast or time estimates are future-oriented. From the same source , at present,
managers should act now to plan and establish through forecasts considering the consistent
target completion dates with the use of resources – men, machines and materials and
through the use of technologies at hand.
On the other hand, managers must act at the latter date to control and monitor the
project phase evolution with a comparison on the milestones to targeted dates of
completion.

Forecasting Processes
According to 1.6 The basic steps in a forecasting task. (n.d.). Retrieved June 5, 2018,
from https://www.otexts.org/fpp/1/6, the steps to follow in a forecasting task are
1. Define the problem.
Understanding of the way the forecasts will be used, who requires the
forecasts, and how the function of forecasting fits within the organization
requiring the forecasts is required in defining the problem carefully. Spending
time talking to everyone who will be involved in collecting the data, data
maintenance and using the forecasts for future planning should be done by a
forecaster.

2. Gather information.
In gathering information, at least two kinds of information is required:
a. Statistical data
b. Accumulated expertise of the people who collect the said data and use
the forecasts.
In fitting a good statistical model, difficulty may be encountered in obtaining
enough historical data. Due to the system's changes being forecast,
occasionally, very old data will be less useful.
3. Conduct preliminary analysis
In conducting preliminary analysis, graphing the data should be the starting
point. The following questions can be utilized in conducting such analysis:
a. Are there consistent patterns?
b. Is there a relevant trend?
c. Is seasonality relevant?
d. Is there evidence of the presence of business cycles?
Course Module
 e. Are there any outliers in the data that should be explained by experts?
f. How strong are the relationships among the variables available for
analysis?

4. Choose and fit models

The availability of historical data, the strength of forecasts variable an
explanatory variable relationship and the way the forecast are to be used
should be considered in using the best model. Comparing two or three
potential models can be done for each model is itself an artificial construct which
is based on the explicit and implicit assumptions. One or more parameters
which must be “fitted” using the known historical data is usually involved.

5. Use and evaluate a forecasting model

The model is used to make forecast when a model has been selected and its
parameters are already estimated. After the data for forecast period have become
available , the model's performance can be properly evaluated. To help in
assessing the forecast accuracy, a number of methods have been developed. In
using and acting on the forecast, there are also organizational issues.

Methods of Forecasting
1.4 Forecasting data and methods. (n.d.). Retrieved June 3, 2018, from
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/1/4, appropriate forecasting methods largely depend on the
data available.
A. Qualitative Methods
If the data are not available and when the available data are not important to
forecast, qualitative methods of forecasting methods should be used. In obtaining
good forecasts without using historical data, well-developed structured approaches
are used.
B. Quantitative Methods
These are applied when the following conditions are satisfied:
• Numerical data and information about the past is available
• Assumption that some aspects of patterns in the past will continue
into the future.
Actually, a wide range of quantitative forecasting methods are
available and often developed within specific disciplines for specific purposes.
When choosing a specific method, method properties, accuracies and cost
should be considered. Either time series data collected at regular intervals
over time or cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time are used
mostly in quantitative forecasting problems.
1. Cross-sectional forecasting
Using this method, using the information on the cases that
the business firms have observed, the said firm wants to predict
the value of something that has not been observed. With cross-
sectional data, we are wanting to predict the value of something
we have not observed, using the information on the cases that we
have observed.
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Demand Forecasting

2. Time series forecasting

Data on times series are useful when an individual is forecasting
something that is changing over time like prices, stock, sales figures,
profits and the like. Time series is Anything that is observed
sequentially over time. Examples of time series data include the
following:
• Monthly rainfall
• Annual google profits
• Quarterly sales results for Lazada
Forecasting time series data aim to estimate how the
observation sequence will continue in the future.

Forecasting and the Product Life Cycle

Figure 3 - Product Life Cycle

Drevale, R. (2015, May 14). Ch 10 forecast. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from

https://www.slideshare.net/RioneDrevale/ch-10-forecast

According to Drevale, R. (2015, May 14). Ch 10 forecast. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
https://www.slideshare.net/RioneDrevale/ch-10-forecast, product life cycle is composed of
introduction, growth, maturity and decline. The first two stages require longer forecasts
than the last two stages. Forecasts are useful in projecting staffing levels, inventory levels,
and factory capacity as product passes through life cycle.

Course Module
 In the first stage, Introduction, product designing and development are critical.
Frequently product and process design changes. There is a short production but has a high
production cost at this phase. Likewise, attention to quality should be considered during this
stage.
In the second stage, Growth, forecasting is critical and product and process reliability
should be considered. Competitive product options and improvements are present.
Likewise, there is an increase in the capacity of the firm to supply the product. Shifting
towards product focus is in this stage and enhancement of distribution is aimed to achieve
in this phase.
In the third stage, Maturity , the product has already stabilized standard for the
production such product. Changes in the product is on the minor level. Cost cutting is
achieved on this stage because long production runs and there is a stable improvement in
the product offered.
Decline, there is a decline in sales, declining profits, and lower quality in the last stage.

According to Forecasting Product Life Cycle Curves: Practical Approach and

Empirical Analysis (2017 Feb 24) Retrieved June 5, 2018 from http://public.kenan-
flagler.unc.edu/2017msom/MSOM%20and%20SIG%20Program/Track%205/C/MSOM20
17_1_0199.pdf many business organizations seek either to innovate and bring new products
as well as services to market. Still, top priorities for executives are growth and product
innovation. Creating sales forecasts is one of the largest challenges in managing new product
introductions. How firms approach forecasting in general and how the approach may differ
for new product forecasting is important to distinguish.

It was in the report that 75% of all forecasts are generated or at least influenced by
statistical forecasts while other researchers believed that market research based methods
and executive opinion dominate in forecasting sales.

According to Life Cycle Models and Forecasting Growth and Profitability (2017)
Retrieved June 5, 2018 from
http://sydney.edu.au/business/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/340945/meafa2018_yohn.pd
f, forecast of profitability are not improved by industry-level analyses even there were
informative industry –level analyses. Unless business organization are able to exploit it
profitability, growth does not add value. In the investment decision-making process
wherein illustrating the importance of finding methods that can be used to improve their
quality, profitability forecasts.

Qualitative and Quantitative Methods of Forecasting

According to Forecasting Fundamentals (n.d.) Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
http://mech.at.ua/Forecasting.pdf, forecasting methods has two types and these are the
qualitative and quantitative methods. The first type are based on opinions, judgments,
emotions, intuitions or persona experiences. These are subjective in nature and do not rely
on mathematical computations while the quantitative methods are based on mathematical
 Production Operations Management and TQM
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Demand Forecasting

models. Likewise, they are objective in nature and rely heavily on mathematical
computations.

Figure 4 - Qualitative Forecasting Methods

Rai University. (2015, March 18). Mba ii pmom_unit-1.3 forecasting a. Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
https://www.slideshare.net/raiuniversity/mba-ii-pmomunit13-forecasting-a

According to Rai University. (2015, March 18). Mba ii pmom_unit-1.3 forecasting a.

Retrieved June 4, 2018, from https://www.slideshare.net/raiuniversity/mba-ii-
pmomunit13-forecasting-a qualitative forecasting methods include the following:
1. Executive judgment – ideas and opinion of group of high level managers or experts
are pooled.

2. Sales force composite – Sales estimates of each regional salesperson are provided
and the said forecasts are then reviewed to make sure that the said estimates are
realistic. All regional forecasts are then pooled in the district and national levels so
as to obtain an overall forecasts.

3. Market research/survey – Customer’s future purchasing plans are then solicited.

Use of questionnaires, test of new products and services and consumer panels are
involved here.
4. Delphi method – effects of group potential dominance of the most vocal members
are eliminated in this method. The following steps are done in this method:
4.1. All group statements are collected and summarized by the coordinator.
4.2. The coordinator provides summary and another set of questions are given
to each group member including the feedback as to the input of other
experts.
4.3. The same steps will be repeated until the consensus is reached.

From the same source, the quantitative forecasting methods were given and these
are the time-series models and the associative methods.
Course Module
 Figure 5 - Quantitative Forecasting Methods

Quantitative Forecasting Methods. (n.d.). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from

http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/economic/klein/30_2/Berenson/CHAP5/sld006.htm

A. Time Series Models

Past patterns of data are being looked in these models. These
models attempt to predict the future based upon the contained
underlying patterns within the said data.

1. Moving Average - an average of a specified number of the most recent

observations is used wherein each observation receives the same
emphasis or weight.

2. Exponential Smoothing – it is a weighted average procedure wherein

weights decline exponentially as the data become older.

3. Trend models – Least squares method is used in this technique so as

to fit a straight line to the data.

Technique that uses the least-squares method to fit a straight line to the data
B. Causal Models
These are often called associative models that assume that the
forecasted elements are related to other environmental elements or
variables. Projection is based on the said associations.
1. Regression - According to Rai University. (2015, March 18). Mba ii
pmom_unit-1.3 forecasting a. Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
https://www.slideshare.net/raiuniversity/mba-ii-pmomunit13-
forecasting-a, regression analysis takes advantage of relationship
between two elements or variables. Based on this relationship's
knowledge and for the given value of related variable , demand is then
forecasted.
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Demand Forecasting

Forecasting Accuracy
In the study of Determinants of Analyst Forecasting Accuracy (2016) Retrieved June
4, 2018 from
https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=joseph_wharton
_scholars, the determinants of forecast accuracy are the following:
1. Industry
A certain business firm's business operations and the industry where the
business belongs are causes of variation in forecast accuracy. It is in
analysts' ability in certain industries that are being better able to conduct
their analysis that the relationship of industry evolves. Potential causes are
• First, stability of operations among industries are varied. For
instance, utilities, are likely to be subject to fewer exogenous than are
firms operating with the mining sector, whose operations are subject
to fluctuations in commodity prices.
• Forecast accuracy is likely to be affected by the innate skill of the
analyst.
• Certain industries may have greater aggregate analyst coverage,
which can lead to better marginal information gathering and more
accurate consensus estimates.
• Accounting factors can be another link in the relationship between
accuracy and industry.

2. Forecast horizon
It is the time between when analyst submits an estimated projects sales
forecast and the company announcement of the actual estimated projected
sales. It relevantly affects the accuracy of forecasts.

3. Firm size
Firm’s size is a well-documented determinant of forecast accuracy. Larger
firms usually have more accurate forecast. The larger ones generally have a large
analyst which contributes to a more extensive coverage and data and information
gathering which are aggregate ones. Another thing is that the participants'
greater scrutiny in the market gives pressure to the company to have better
reporting, stable earnings, and a more comprehensive disclosure by the
management.

4. Analyst following
This refers to the analyst trends following a number of analysts following
a firm within a period of time and the dispersion in their forecasts. There are
reports that the larger analyst following has generally greater forecast accuracy.

Course Module
 5. Earnings type
The earning type – profits vs. losses and increases vs decreases has been found
in the research associated with forecast accuracy. It is associated with the incentive
structure of sell-side analysts wherein analysts who issue negative recommendation
create risk in terms of their relation with the firm's management and of course with
their access to information.
6. Earnings management
Earnings management and earnings quality on forecasts accuracy impact is
well documented. In the research made, earning management refers to the firm's
management's undertaken actions that undermine earnings quality and the ability of
sellside analysts to conduct and issue forecasts that are accurate.

7. Financial crisis
It was noted in the research made that the dispersion and the accuracy of
forecasts errors have changed overtime – from pessimistic to optimistic. It was
alarming because magnitude and dispersion of forecast errors are steadily
increasing. In some studies, significant regulation and economy changes seemed to
be the primary catalysts for these changes.

References and Supplementary Materials

Books and Journals
1. 1.2 Forecasting, planning and goals. (n.d.). Retrieved June 3, 2018, from
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/1/2
2. 1.4 Forecasting data and methods. (n.d.). Retrieved June 3, 2018, from
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/1/4
3. Forecasting Fundamentals (n.d.) Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
http://mech.at.ua/Forecasting.pdf
4. Demand Forecasting: Concept, Significance, Objectives and Factors. (2015, August
11). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand-
forecasting/demand-forecasting-concept-significance-objectives-and-
factors/3557
5. Basic rules of forecasting (n.d.) Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
https://scm.ncsu.edu/scm-articles/article/basic-rules-of-forecasting-approaches-
to-forecasting-a-tutorial
6. Rai University. (2015, March 18). Mba ii pmom_unit-1.3 forecasting a. Retrieved
June 4, 2018, from https://www.slideshare.net/raiuniversity/mba-ii-
pmomunit13-forecasting-a
7. Measuring Forecast Accuracy (n.d.) Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/af71/3d815a7caba8dff7248ecea05a5956b2a48
7.pdf
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Demand Forecasting

8. Measuring Forecast Accuracy (n.d.) Retrieved June 4, 2018, from

https://scm.ncsu.edu/scm-articles/article/measuring-forecast-accuracy-
approaches-to-forecasting-a-tutorial#2
9. Determinants of Analyst Forecasting Accuracy (2016) Retrieved June 4, 2018 from
https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=joseph_
wharton_scholars
10. Drevale, R. (2015, May 14). Ch 10 forecast. Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
https://www.slideshare.net/RioneDrevale/ch-10-forecast
11. Constantino, T. (2015, February 17). Operations management forecasting.
Retrieved June 5, 2018, from https://www.slideshare.net/Euwinx/operations-
management-forecasting
12. Forecasting as a tool for decision making (n.d) Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
http://www.sascommunity.org/sugi/SUGI88/Sugi-13-35%20Fingerman.pdf
13. Costly environments - forecasting project schedules for time and costs. (n.d.).
Retrieved June 5, 2018, from https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/costly-
environments-project-schedules-time-costs-5734

Online Supplementary Reading Materials

1. Makridakis, S., Spiliotis, E., & Assimakopoulos, V. (n.d.). Statistical and Machine
Learning forecasting methods: Concerns and ways forward. Retrieved June 3,
2018, from
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0194889
2. Forecasting Management (n.d.) Retrieved June 3, 2018, from http://www.diva-
portal.se/smash/get/diva2:223787/FULLTEXT01.pdf
3. A Sampling of Emissions Analysis Techniques for Transportation Control
Measures. (n.d.). Retrieved June 4, 2018, from
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ENVIRonment/air_quality/conformity/research/t
ransportation_control_measures/emissions_analysis_techniques/forecasting_a
pproaches.cfm
4. 2.5 Evaluating forecast accuracy. (n.d.). Retrieved June 4, 2018 from
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/2/5
5. Forecasting Product Life Cycle Curves: Practical Approach and Empirical
Analysis (2017 Feb 24) Retrieved June 5, 2018 from http://public.kenan-
flagler.unc.edu/2017msom/MSOM%20and%20SIG%20Program/Track%205/
C/MSOM2017_1_0199.pdf

Online Instructional Videos

1. Demand Forecasting | Techniques of Demand Forecasting. (2015, February 25).
Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXM0GwiILc0

Course Module
2. Demand Estimation and Forecasting - Chapter 5 | Managerial Economics. (2017,
May 20). Retrieved June 5, 2018, from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwIMsUwdj_8
3. Demand Forecasting | Techniques of Demand Forecasting. (2016, December 11).
Retrieved June 5, 2018, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCj8l-4PAQo