Question 15 First attempt

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John just bought a brand new cell phone and is considering buying a warranty. The warranty costs 200 euros and is
Report: Expected value
worth 1000 euros if his phone breaks.
John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. 100%

Find the expected value of buying the warranty. 1/4 John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. If this happens, the value is
1000 − 200 = 800 euros (the benefit from the warranty minus the cost of the warranty).
euros
1 Incorrect 2 Incorrect 3 Correct
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 90% chance his phone does not break. In this case, the value
The expected value of a fair 6-sided die is 3.5. −200ofeuros (just
Annie is participating in a winner-take-all WorldisSeries X the
is acost of the
discrete warranty).
random variable. The graph below
Poker tournament that costs 10 thousand dollars to defines a probability distribution for X .
3/4 Let's multiply each value by its probability because expected value is the sum of all possible values,
Which of the following statements are true? enter. The prize for winning the tournament is 500
each value multiplied by its probability.
thousand dollars. Annie estimates that there is a 0.5% What is the expected value of X ?
Choose all answers that apply: chance that she will win the tournament.
Value Probability Value ⋅ Probability

Find the expected value of entering the tournament for John's phone breaks 800 0.10 80
3.5 is one of the possible outcomes of Annie.
A
rolling a fair 6-sided die. John's phone does not break −200 0.90 −180
thousand dollars
4/4 The expected value is 80 + (−180) = −100 euros.
A fair 6-sided die is more likely to land on
B
the number 4 than the number 6.

If you rolled a fair 6-sided die a large

number of times, you should expect the
C
average of the numbers rolled to be about
3.5.

5 Incorrect

6 Correct
The expected value of the sum of two fair 6-sided dice is
7.
X is a discrete random variable. The table below defines
a probability distribution for X .
Which of the following statements are true?
4 Correct
Choose all answers that apply: What is the expected value of X ?
Alice is riding the train to her job in Paris, France. She
accidentally purchased a ticket for zone 4, but she is
No matter how many times you roll two fair
travelling to zone 5. She has decided to risk it and stay
on the train until zone 5 with the incorrect ticket. If the
6-sided dice, the average of the sum of the
A x P (X = x)
 transit authorities check tickets on the train, she will dice will be exactly 7. x P (X = x)
have to pay a fine. Question 15 First attempt
0 0.3
Alice estimates that there is a 5% chance that the B The sum of two fair 6-sided dice could be 5.
3 0.5
transit authorities will check tickets. The fine for having
Responses Draw Hints
John just bought a brand new the
cell wrong
phone ticket 300 euros.buying
and is isconsidering a warranty.
The ticket The warranty costs 200 euros and is
she purchased 7 0.1
worth 1000 euros if his phonecost estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. If the first die lands on 4, the second die will
her 5 euros.
breaks.
John
C 10 0.1
always land on 3.
Find the expected value of buying
Findthe
thewarranty.
total expected cost of Alice's train ride. 1/4 John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. If this happens, the value is
1000 − 200 = 800 9 euros (the benefit from the warranty minus theCorrect
cost of the warranty).
euros euros
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 90% chance his phone does not break. In this case, the value
is −200 euros (justAnouk and of
the cost Tessa
the are playing a game where a player flips
warranty).
a coin. If the coin lands on heads, the player receives 1
3/4 Let's multiply eachpoint.
valueIfby
theitscoin
probability
lands onbecause
tails, theexpected value is2the sum of all possible values,
player receives
each value multiplied by its probability.
points.

Value
The expected value Probability
of a turn Value ⋅ Probability
is 1.5 points.

John's phone breaks 800 0.10 80

8 Incorrect Which of the following statements are true?
John's phone does not break −200 0.90 −180
Choose all answers that apply:
Ivy is in Las Vegas and bet on her favorite team, the
4/4 The expected value is 80 + (−180) = −100 euros.
Denver Dragons, to beat the Seattle Sea Turtles.
It is possible for a player to get 1.5 points
A
7 Correct If the Denver Dragons win, she will win 10 dollars. If the on a turn.
Seattle Sea Turtles win, she will lose 11 dollars (the extra
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below dollar is commission). Ivy estimates that there is a 50%
If they play a large number of turns, they
defines a probability distribution for X . chance of the Denver Dragons winning (there cannot be
B should expect to average about 1.5 points
a tie).
per turn.
What is the expected value of X ?
Find the expected return of placing this bet.
The total number of points from 2 turns
C
dollars must be exactly 3 points.

11 Incorrect
 In Las Vegas, a particular sports bet has about a 30% 12 Correct
Question 15
chance of winning.
If the bet wins, the bettor will win 15 First attempt
dollars. If the bet loses, the bettor will lose 10 dollars. X is a discrete random variable. The table below defines
10 Correct a probability distribution for X .
The expected return of placing one of these bets is Draw Hints
Responses
John just bought a brand new cell phone and is considering buying a warranty. The warranty costs 200 euros
−2.50 dollars.and is
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below What is the expected value of X ?
worth 1000 euros if his phone breaks.
John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking.
defines a probability distribution for X .
Which of the following statements are true?
Find the expected value of buying the warranty. 1/4 John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. If this happens, the value is
What is the expected value of X ? 1000 − 200 = 800 euros (the benefit from the warranty minus the cost of the warranty).
Choose all answers that apply:
euros x P (X = x)
2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 90% chance his phone does not break. In this case, the value
−200 euros (just−7
It is possible for a bettor to place 2 of isthese the cost of0.2
the warranty).
A
bets and win both of them. −3 0.1
3/4 Let's multiply each value by its probability because expected value is the sum of all possible values,
each value multiplied3 by its probability.
0.4
If a bettor places a large number of these
bets, they should expect to average a return 7 0.3
B Value Probability Value ⋅ Probability
of about −2.50 dollars per bet.
John's phone breaks 800 0.10 80
John's phone does not break −200 0.90 −180
The average return per bet from 2 of these 15 Correct
C
bets must be exactly −2.50 dollars.
4/4 The expected value is 80 + (−180) = −100 euros.
John just bought a brand new cell phone and is
considering buying a warranty. The warranty costs 200
euros and is worth 1000 euros if his phone breaks.
John
estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone
breaking.

Find the expected value of buying the warranty.

13 Incorrect euros

Worldwide Oil Transport Incorporated is considering

hiring a small oil spill response team to follow one of
their ships from Alaska to Russia.
14 Incorrect

The oil spill response team would cost 50 thousand

A teetotum is a spinning top that has an equal
dollars but would save an estimated 2500 thousand
probability of landing on each side. The expected value
dollars in the event of an oil spill. The ship is estimated
of one spin of a 12-sided teetotum (labeled with the
to have a 1% chance of generating an oil spill.
numbers from 1 to 12) is 6.5.
Find the expected value of hiring the oil spill response
Which of the following statements are true?
team.

Choose all answers that apply:

thousand dollars

Th ld l d h b 10
 The teetotum could land on the number 10.
A
Question 15 First attempt

The teetotum is more likely to land on the

B
number 6 than any other number.
Responses Draw Hints
John just bought a brand new cell phone and is considering buying a warranty. The warranty costs 200 euros and is
worth 1000 euros if his phone breaks.
John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking.
No matter how many times you spin the
16 Correct
Find the expected value of buying the warranty. C teetotum, the average number1 /from John estimates that there is a 10% chance of his phone breaking. If this happens, the value is
4 the
spins will be exactly 6.5. 1000 − 200 = 800 euros (the benefit from the warranty minus the cost of the warranty).
X is a discrete random variable. The graph below
euros
defines a probability distribution for X . 2/4 According to the estimate, there is a 90% chance his phone does not break. In this case, the value
is −200 euros (just the cost of the warranty).
What is the expected value of X ?
3/4 Let's multiply each value by its probability because expected value is the sum of all possible values,
each value multiplied by its probability.

Value Probability Value ⋅ Probability

John's phone breaks 800 0.10 80

John's phone does not break −200 0.90 −180

4/4 The expected value is 80 + (−180) = −100 euros.