MAT611: TOPIC 4: NETWORK ANALYSIS

4.1 Introduction
Network analysis refers to a family of related techniques that help management to
plan and control projects. These techniques show interrelationships of various
chores/tasks which make up the overall projects and clearly identify the critical
paths of the project. They are most useful in complex large organizations or big
projects with restrictions or constraints.

4.2 Objectives of network analysis

1. Planning, scheduling and control
2. Simplified framework of the interconnectivity of various activities
constituting a project or a programme. Done to show the technology
interdependence of various activities.
3. Minimization of the total cost, total time, and other resources.
4. Maximization of efficiency/effectiveness, returns, etc.

4.3 Management Applications of Network Analysis

Network analysis is the organized application of systematic reasoning for
planning, scheduling, monitoring and controlling practical situations where many
separate tasks (which make up a whole project) can happen simultaneously or
consecutively. Applications include the following:
1. Building and construction – construction of buildings, bridges, factories,
highways, stadiums.
2. Budgeting and auditing procedures.
3. Assembly line scheduling
4. Missile development
5. Installation of complex equipment e.g. computers, large machines.
6. Planning.
7. Advertising programmes for development and launching of new products.
8. Finding the best traffic flow pattern in a city.
9. Research and development.

4.4 Main concepts of network analysis:

1. Activity – a task or job which takes time and resources. Denoted by an arrow
( ).
2. Predecessor activity – an activity that must be completed immediately prior
to the start of another activity.
3. Successor activity – activity that succeeds other activities.
4. Concurrent activities – activities that can be accomplished together.
5. Critical activity – an activity whose delay causes delay in the entire project.
6. Dummy activity – an activity that does not consume time or resources. It is
used to show logical dependencies between activities. Denoted by a broken
arrow ( ).
7. Event – a point in time that indicates the start or finish of an activity. It is
denoted by a circle (O), or a node.

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 Activity

Start Event Finish event

There are 3 types of events:

i) Merge event – formed when more than one activity come and join together in
an event.

ii) Burst event - formed when more than one activity leaves an event.

iii) Merge and burst event – a combination of the two. When more than one
activity come and join together and more than one activity leaves an event.

8. Network – a combination of activities and events in a logical sequence

according to the rules of drawing networks.

4.5 Rules for construction of network diagrams

a) Each activity is represented by one and only one arrow in the network.
b) No two activities can be identified by the same beginning and end event.
In such cases a dummy activity is used.
c) An activity can only be undertaken if all activities preceding it are
completed.
d) The flow of the network diagram should be from left to right.
e) Arrows should be straight, not curved or bent, and should not cross each
other unless it is inevitable.
f) The length of arrows is of no significance.
g) Angles between the arrows should be as large as possible.
h) Each activity must have a unique tail and head event.
Activity

i. Tail event Head event

i) A complete network should have only one point of entry (i.e. start event)
and only one point of exit (finish event).
j) Generally no event can be numbered until all preceding events have been
numbered. The number at the head of the arrow is always greater than the
number at its tail.

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4.6 Identification of activities
There are three main methods of identification:
1. a short description of the task/activity
2. alphabetical or numerical code
3. tail and head event numbers

Illustrations
1. Activity B cannot start until A is completed. (B depends on A or B is preceded by A
or B succeeds A).
A B

2. Activities B and C cannot start until activity A is completed i.e. B and C depends on
A.

B
A

3. Activity C cannot start until both A and B are completed

A
C

4. Both A and B must be finished before either C or D can start.

A C

B D

5. Activity A and B must be completed before activity C can start. Only activity B must
be completed before activity D can start.

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 A C

B D

6. Activity Preceding activity

A: Buying orbit -
B: Removing the wrapper A
C: Putting the orbit in the mouth B
D: Chewing the orbit C

A B C D

7. Activity Preceding activity

A -
C A
B -
D A, B

A C

B D

4.7 Common errors in Network Diagrams

1. Dangling – disconnection of an activity before completion of all activities in the
project network diagramming.

2. Looping or cycling error – this is having a series of activities which lead back to the
same event.

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3. Redundancy – providing unnecessary dummy activity in a network diagram.

Draw the following network diagrams

1. Activity Preceding activity
A -
B -
C A
D C
E B&C

A D

B
E

Exercise 1
Draw the following network diagrams

1. Activity Pre-requisite

A -
B -
C A
D B

2. Activity Pre-requisite
A -
B A
C A
D B
E C
F D&E
3. Activity Preceding activity
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 A -
B -
C A
D A
E B
F B
G C&E
H C, E, & F

4. Preceding activities are in brackets:

A(-), B(-), C(A), D(B), E(A&C), F(B), G(C&D), H(G&F), I(E), J(H&I), K(J)

4.8 TIME ESTIMATES IN NETWORK ANALYSIS

Time analysis of the network is useful for planning the various activities of a project.
Time analysis requires an estimation of time to complete an activity. An activity time is
the forecast of time expected of each activity from the starting time to its completion
under normal conditions. The basic objective of time analysis is to get a planned schedule
of the project. The plan should include the following:
i) Total completion time for the project
ii) Earliest time when each activity can begin
iii) The latest time when each activity can be started without delaying the total
project.
iv) Float for each activity – that is the amount of time by which the completion of
an activity can be delayed without delaying the total project completion
v) Identification of critical activities and critical path
The analysis of the projects time can be achieved by using:
i) Single time estimates of each activity
ii) Multiple time estimates of each activity

4.9.0 CRITICAL PATH METHOD (CPM)

If the times of all activities of a particular project are given, the time taken for each of the
possible paths through the network can be evaluated.

4.9.1 Role of CPM in project planning and coordination (importance)

i) The network indicates the specific activities required to complete a project.
ii) The network indicates the interdependence and sequence of specific activities.
iii) Indicates start and finish time of each activity of the project.
iv) It indicates the critical path and its duration of time.

4.9.2 Assumptions of CPM

i) A project can be subdivided into a set of predictable independent activities.
ii) The precedence relationship of project activities can be completely represented by
a non-cyclical network graph in which each activity connects directly with the
immediate successors.

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 iii) Activity times may be estimated as single point estimates or as 3 point estimates
(that is, optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely) and are independent of each
other.
4.9.3 Key concepts
i) Earliest start time (EST) – this is the earliest time at which an activity can begin. It
is the earliest time at which a succeeding activity can start.
ii) Latest start time (LST) – refers to the latest expected time – the latest time which an
activity can begin without affecting the normal project duration. The latest possible
time at which a preceding activity can finish without delaying project duration.
iii) Earliest finish time (EFT) – earliest time at which an activity can be completed.
iv) Latest finish time (LFT) – the latest time at which an activity can be finished
without affecting the normal time duration.
v) Slack – the amount of time by which the start of an activity may be delayed without
affecting the overall duration of a project. Free or spare time in the network.
vi) Critical path – the path in the network with the longest time.
2 features to note:
i) There can be no more than one critical path in a network.
ii) To reduce the duration of a project requires shortening the time of an activity that is
on the critical path.

4.9.4 COMPUTATION OF TIME ESTIMATES

There are three main categories:
i) Forward pass (associated with EST)
ii) Backward pass (LST)
iii) Critical path
Illustration
Activity Pre-requisite Time
A - 1
B A 2
C A 3
D B 4
E C 1
F D&E 2

E F

C
D

A B

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 A B C D E F
EST 0 1 1 3 4 7
LST 0 1 1 3 6 7

A B C D E F
EFT 1 3 4 7 7 9
LFT 1 3 6 7 7 9
4.9.5 Identification of critical path
A critical path comprises of critical activities. An activity is critical when:
i) EST = LST of tail event
ii) EST = LST of head event
iii) EST of head event – EST of tail event = time duration of the activity
Critical path: A B D F
To denote the critical path use || or a double-arrow.

4.9.6 Project duration

Project duration is the sum of the time taken by the critical activities on the critical.
Project duration = 1 + 2 + 4 + 2 = 9 days

Exercise 2
Precedence table for a project is given as follows:
Activity Predecessor Time duration
A - 3
B - 2
C - 2
D A 4
E B 4
F B 7
G C 4
H A, D 2
I B, E 5
J B, C, F, G 6
K A, B, D, E, I, H 3
a) Draw the network diagram
b) Determine EST, LST, EFT & LFT of each activity
c) Find the critical path
d) Find project duration

Exercise 3
A project consists of the following activities with duration in weeks of each activity given
in brackets.
A(12), B(8), and C(14), can be executed concurrently. A and B precede D(4). B
precedes E(2), F(10), and H(16). F and C precede G(6). E and H precede I(4) and
J(8). C, F, and J precede K(4). K precedes L(8). D, I, G, and L are the terminating
activities in the project.

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i) Construct the precedence table, and hence draw the network for the project.
ii) Determine the critical path and the project duration using the forward pass and
backward pass method.
iii) Construct a table of the EST, LST, EFT, LFT, and total float for each activity.

4.10 FLOAT CALCULATIONS

If an activity is not on the critical path then it is possible to increase its duration without
increasing the total project duration. The extra time is known as float. There are three
types of float:
i) Total float
ii) Free float
iii) Independent float
i) Total float
It is the amount of spare time a path of activities could be delayed without affecting the
overall project duration.
Total float = Latest head time – Earliest tail time – Activity duration
TF = LFT – EST - tij
Activity Aij is that activity with the tail end I and the head end j. Total float on critical
activity is always zero.
Interpretation of total float
a) Negative total float – implies inadequate resources; activity may not finish on
time
b) Zero total float – resources are just enough to complete the activity; activities are
not delayed
c) Positive total float – excess resources; thus they can be reallocated to other
activities or delay activities by amount of the total float.
2. Free Float
Amount of time an activity could be delayed without affecting the commencement of a
subsequent activity at its earliest start time.
FF = EHT – ETT - tij
= EFT – EST - tij
3. Independent float
Amount of time an activity could be delayed when all preceding activities are completed
as late as possible and all succeeding activities completed as early as possible.
IF = EHT – LTT – tij
= EFT – LST - tij
Note:
 EHT = EFT
 LTT = LST
Slacks: free or spare time in a network. Slack refers to events while float focuses on
activity.

Event Slack (ES)

ES = Latest event time – Earliest event time

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2 types of slack:
 Head slack (HS) = Lj – Ej
 Tail slack (TS) = Li – Ei
In terms of slack events:
TF = Lj – Ei – tij
FF = TF – HS
IF = FF – TS
[Get EST, LST, EFT, LFT, TF, FF, IF, HS, and TS for exercise 1]

4.12 PROJECT EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE (PERT)

Methodology:
1. Project planning – drawing the network diagram
2. Time estimation
3. Scheduling – computation of the latest and earliest allowable start and finish time.
Hence we determine the critical path, the float and the slacks.
4. Time cost trade-offs – to determine the cost of reducing the completion time of the
project. The cost of reducing the project-completion-time as well as time-cost trade-
offs of activity performance times are put into account for activities on the critical
path.
5. Resource allocation – the feasibility of each schedule must be checked with respect to
man-power and equipment requirement.
6. Project control – the project is controlled by checking the progress against the
schedule, assigning and scheduling man-power and equipment, and analyzing the
effects of delays.

4.12.1 PERT system of 3 estimates

1. Optimistic time (O, a, or t0)
2. Most likely time (M, tm or ML)
3. Pessimistic time (P, b, or tp)

1. Optimistic time – It is the estimate of the shortest minimum possible time an activity
can take to be completed. This is usually under ideal conditions.
2. Pessimistic time – It is the longest possible time that an activity can take.
3. Most likely time – the time which the activity will take most frequently if performed
a number of times.

The three time estimates O, M and P are combined statistically to develop the expected
time (te) for an activity.
4.12.2 Two main assumptions:
1. The three time estimates O, M and P form the end-points and the mode of beta
distribution. Both optimistic and pessimist time are equally likely to occur whereas
the probability of occurrence of most likely time is 4 times that of O and P.

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 O M te P

2. The probability of O:M:P = 1:4:1

O 4M P
Expected time duration   
6 6 6
O  4M  P
te 
6
OR
a  4m  b
te 
6
Deviation/Variance
2
 PO
  =standard deviation squared
 6 
Standard deviation
2
 PO
   
 6 
The standard deviation of the project = sum of var iances of critical activities

4.12.3 Procedure for calculating time estimates using PERT

1. Prepare a table of expected duration, the variance for each of the activities of the
project.
2. Draw the project network diagram of activities based on the expected duration of
activities.
3. Find or determine the critical path.
4. Find the total expected duration of the project based on the network also referred to as
the average duration of the project.
5. Standard deviation of the entire project
6. Find the probability of completing the project within a particular time period.

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Example
A project has the following activities and characteristics.
Expected
Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity time Variances
time time time
duration (te)
1-2 2 5 8 5 1
1-3 4 10 16 10 4
1-4 1 7 13 7 4
2-5 5 8 11 8 1
3-5 2 8 14 8 4
4-6 6 9 12 9 1
5-6 4 7 10 7 1

8
5

10 8

7 7

Critical path: 1-3-5-6

Total duration time = 10 + 8 + 7 =25 days
Standard deviation of the project

  sum of var iances of critical activities  ( 4  4  1)  9 3

4.13 COST ANALYSIS - Costs and Networks

Concerned with the cost of activities and of the project as a whole. The main objective is
to calculate the cost of various activity durations and find the cheapest way of reducing
the overall project duration.
Concepts associated with PERT costs
1. Normal cost – cost associated with the normal time estimate for an activity.
2. Crash cost – cost associated with the minimum possible time for an activity.
3. Crash time – minimum possible time for an activity.
4. Cost slope – average cost of shortening an activity by 1 time unit.

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 Crash cos t  Normal cos t
Cost slope 
Normal time  Crash time
Example
The normal time of an activity is 12 days at a cost of ₤ 480 and a crash time of 8 days at ₤
640.
640  480
Cost slope  = ₤ 40 per day
12  8
5. Least cost scheduling or crashing – the process of finding the least cost method of
reducing the overall project duration from time period to time-period.
Note: only critical activities affect the project duration and thus they are the only ones
whose time can be reduced (or crashed).
Example
A project has the following characteristics:
Activity Pre-requisite Time Cost Cost
Normal Crash Normal Crash Slope
A - 5 3 500 620 60
B - 4 2 300 390 45
C A 7 6 650 680 30
D A 3 2 400 450 50
E B, C 5 3 850 1000 75

Network Diagram
D

3
A
E
5
B 5

4
Critical path: ACE
Total normal cost = ₤ 2700
Time duration 17 days

Time scheduling
Begin by reducing by 1 day activities on the critical path with the lowest cost slope i.e.
reduce activity C by 1 day at an extra cost of ₤ 30.

Total normal cost is ₤ 2700 with 17 days

16 day duration (C) at a total cost of 2730
15 day duration (A) at a total cost of 2790
14 day duration (A) at a total cost of 2850
13 day duration (E) at a total cost of 2925
12 day duration (E) at a total cost of 3000

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The project can be completed in 12 days at a cost of ₤ 3000.

Exercise 4

Activity Pre-requisite O M P Time Cost

Normal Crash Normal Crash Cost Slope
A - 3 4 5 3 400 600
B - 6 8 10 7 500 700
C F, D 2 3 4 2 900 1000
D B 4 5 12 5 600 700
E - 5 7 9 6 800 900
F A 9 16 17 14 950 1250
G B 8 12 16 10 670 870
H G 8 10 12 8 890 990
J L 4 5 6 3 1000 1200
K E 7 8 15 7 400 600
L G, K 8 11 14 9 1200 1400
Required:
1. Expected time (Normal time) duration for each activity using PERT formula (te).
2. Network diagram.
3. Critical path and total time for the project.
4. Standard deviation of the project.
5. Least cost schedule – the total time and cost for the project.

ASSIGNMENT 4

1. Construct an arrow diagram comprising activities A, B, C, D, E, F and

G that satisfy the following precedence relationships.

Activity Immediate Duration

Predecessors (days)
A - 2
B A 1
C A 3
D B 2
E C 1
F D, E 1
G F 3

Determine the critical path and the project duration.

2. A construction project is composed of thirteen activities. The description,

relationships and durations of these activities are as given below:

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 Activity Pre-requisite Expected Time

Activity (weeks)
A None 18
B None 8
C None 14
D B 16
E A 14
F B&C 10
G E 20
H E 16
I D, F&H 12
J E 19
K I&J 20
L G 4
M B&C 6

a) Draw the network diagram for this project.

b) Determine the critical path and project duration
c) Determine the earliest start times and latest start times and finish times
d) Compute the total float, free float and independent float of the various
activities

3. A project has the following activities and characteristics.

Activity Pre-requisite Time Cost

Normal Crash Normal Crash
A - 7 6 800 720
B - 5 2 500 620
C A 4 1 400 700
D B 3 2 350 450
E C&D 6 4 600 840

i. Draw the network diagram and identify the critical path

ii. Find the normal project duration and the associated cost

iii. Crash the relevant activities systematically and determine the

optimal Project time and cost.
4. Ngemwa Construction Ltd. has been awarded a road construction project. Its
planning department has produced the following data for the activities identified
as constituting the road project.

Activity Immediate Normal Crash time Normal cost Crash cost

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 Preceeding time (months) (shs. millions) (shs. million)
Activity (ies) (months)
A B 5 3 50 72
B - 3 2 20 30
C A 2 1 15 30
D C 3 1 8 20
E A 4 4 30 30
F D 8 4 13 21
G H 5 1 45 65
H A 2 1 45 52
I F, G, J 2 2 40 40
J H, E 3 2 22 34

(a) (i) Draw a network for the road construction project and determine the
normal
project duration.
(ii) List the critical activities.
(iii) Compute the expected normal cost of the project.

(b) After receiving the estimated time to complete the road, the client has asked
Jokete Ltd. to reduce the completion time by 7 months. What would be the
minimum extra cost to meet this revised deadline?

(c) The client has now requested a further five months reduction in the project
duration. Comment on this request.

5. A wedding for Joan and Ben comprises of the following activities denoted by the
letters in brackets. The time period in minutes for each activity is also indicated in
brackets.
Arrival of the groom’s parents at the bride’s home (A, 30) and arrival of the
groom at the church (B, 20) both of which can take place concurrently; Giving
away of the bride (C, 30) after arrival of groom’s parents; Arrival of the bride at
the church (D, 20) after she is given away; Church service (E, 60) after arrival of
both the groom and the bride at church; Photo session at the church (F, 30) after
the service; Bridal party picnic (G, 60) after the photo session at church; Arrival
of the guests at the reception (H, 30) after the church service; Serving of guests at
the reception (I, 60) once they begin to arrive at the reception; Arrival of the
bridal party at the reception (J, 30) after the picnic; Video shooting of the
wedding (K, 320) which begins when the groom’s parents arrive at the bride’s
home; Serving of the bridal party (L, 30) after it’s arrival at the reception; Cake
ceremony (M, 45) after bridal party is served and address is given by family
representatives; Address by the family representatives (N, 40) after the guests are
served and the bridal party arrives at the reception; Presentation of gifts (O, 90)
which begins when guests start arriving at the reception; Vote of thanks (P, 10)

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after the cake ceremony; and closing prayers (Q, 5) after activities O and P have
taken place.

a) Make a precedence table and hence draw the network diagram for this
wedding.

b) Determine the earliest and latest start and finish times for each of the
wedding activity.

c) Find the time the wedding will end if the church service begins at
10:00 a.m.

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