Vania Olivine Danarilia_486211_Matrikulasi Manajemen
TUGAS KEENAM: FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
PART 1
10-15 CORPORATE VALUATION
Dozier Corporation is a fast-growing supplier of office products. Analysts project the following
free cash flows (FCFs) during the next 3 years, after which FCF is expected to grow at a constant
7% rate. Dozier’s WACC is 13%
1 2 3
Year 0
a a a a
FCF ($ millions) -$20 $30 $40
a. What is Dozier’s horizon, or continuing, value ? (Hint: Find the value of all free cash
flows beyond year 3 discounted back to year 3)
b. Wat is the firm’s value today ?
c. Suppose Dozier has $100 million of debt and 10 million shares of stocks outstanding.
What is your estimate of the current price per share ?
JAWABAN
a. Horizon Value (P^) akhir tahun ketiga
Free cash flow 3 tahun dari sekaang (FCF3) = $0.7
Constants growth rate of FCF (g) = 7%
Required rate of return (rs) = 13%
Horizon Value = FCF3(1+g)/rs-g
= $40(1+7%)/13%-7%
= $40 (1.07)/0.06
= $42.80/0.06
= $713.33
b. Hal ini sama dengan jumlah present value dari free cash flow (FCF) pada tahun 1-3,
ditambah dengan present value dari horizon value $713.33
Market Value = (FCF1/1+r) + (FCF2/(1+r)2) + (FCF3/(1+r)3) + (Horizon
value/(1+r)3)
= (-$20/(1+0.13)) + ($30/(1+0.13)2) + ($40/(1+0.13)3) +
Vania Olivine Danarilia_486211_Matrikulasi Manajemen
($713.33/(1+0.13)3)
= (-$20/1.13) + ($30/(1.13)2) + ($40/(1.13)3) + ($713.33/(1.13)3)
= -$17.69 + $23.49 + $27.78 + 495.37
= $528.95 million
c. Current price per share
Value per Share = (market value of firm – market value of debt)/(number of
shares outstanding
= ($528.95 - $100)/($10)
= $428.95/$10
= $42.895 million
10-21 NONCONSTANT GROWTH
Assume that it is now January 1, 2016. Wayne-Martin Electric Inc. (WME) has developed a solar
panel capable of generating 200% more electricity than any other solar panel currently on the
market. As a result, WME is expected to experience a 15% annual growth rate for the next 5
years. Other firms will have developed comparable technology by the end of 5 years, and
WME’s growth rate will slow to 5% per year indefinitely. Stockholders require a return of 12%
on WME’s stock. The most recent annual dividend (D0), which was paid yesterday, was $1.75
per share.
a. Calculate WME’s expected dividens for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
b. Calculate the value of the stock today, P0^. Proceed by finding the present value of the
dividends exected at the end of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 plus the present value
of the stock price that should exist at the nd of 2020. The year end 2020 stock price can
be found using the constant growth equation. Notice that to find the December 31, 2020,
price, you must use the dividend, expected in 2021, which is 5% greater than the 2020
dividend.
c. Calculate the expected dividend yield (Dt/P0) capital gains yield, and total return
(dividend yield plus capital gains yield) expected for 2016. (Assume that P0^-P0 and
rexognize that the capital gains yield is equal to the total return minus the dividend yield).
Then calculate these same three yields for 2021.
Vania Olivine Danarilia_486211_Matrikulasi Manajemen
d. How might an investor’s tax situation affect his or her decision to purchase stocks of
companies in the early stages of their lives, when they are growing rapidly, versus stoks
of older, more mature firms ? when does WME’s stock become “mature” for purposes of
this question ?
e. Suppose your boss tells you she believes that WME’s annual growth rate will be only
12% during the next 5 years and that the firm’s long-run growth rate will be only 4%.
Without doing any calculations, what general effect would these growth rate changes
have on the price of WME’s stock ?
f. Suppose your boss also tells you that she regards WME as being quite risky and she
believes the required rate of return should be 14%, not 12%. Without doing any
calculations, determine how the higher require rate of return would affect the price of the
stock, the capital gains yyield, and the dividend yield. Again, assume that the long-run
growth rate is 4%.
JAWABAN
a. WME’s expected dividens buat 5 tahun 2016-2020
D1 = D0 (1+i)
= $1.75 (1+15%)
= $2.01
D2 = D0 (1+i)2
= $1.75 (1+15%)2
= $2.31
D3 = D0 (1+i)3
= $1.75 (1+15%)3
= $2.66
D4 = D0 (1+i)4
= $1.75 (1+15%)4
= $3.06
D5 = D0 (1+i)5
= $1.75 (1+15%)5
= $3.51
Vania Olivine Danarilia_486211_Matrikulasi Manajemen
b. Hal ini sama dengan jumlah present value of the dividnes pada tahun 2016-2020,
ditambah dengan present value dari horizon value+5% (rs = 12%; g= 5%)
P0^ = (D1+(1+r)) + (D2/(1+r)2) + (D3/(1+r)3) + (D4/(1+r)4) + (D5/(1+r)5) +
(D5 Horizon value/(1+g)/(r-g)(1+r)5)
= ($2.01/(1+12%)) + ($2.31/(1+12%)2) + ($2.66/(1+12%)3) +
($3.06/(1+12%)4) + ($3.51/(1+12%)5) + ($3.51 (1+5%)/(12%-
5%)(1+12%)
= $1.79 + $1.84 + $1.89 + $1.94 + $1.99 + ($3.51 (1.05)/(0.07)(1.12)5)
= $1.79 + $1.84 + $1.89 + $1.94 + $1.99 + $29.95
= $39.4
c. Total return sama dengan required return karena stock diasumsikan sama (P0^=P0)
Dividend yield (2016) = D1/P0
= $2.01/$39.4
= 5.10%
Capital gains yield (2016)
Total return = dividend yield + capital gains yield
12% = 5.10% + capital gains yield
12% - 5.10% = capital gains yield
Capital gains yield = 6.9%
*P5 = (D5(1+g)/(r-g))
= $3.51 (1.05)/(0.12-0.05)
= $3.68/0.07
= $52.65
Dividend yield (2021) = D6/*P5
= D5 (1+g)/P5
= $3.51 (1.05)/$52.65
= $3.68/$52.65
= 7%
Capital gains yield (2021)
Total Returm = dividend yield + capital gains yield
Vania Olivine Danarilia_486211_Matrikulasi Manajemen
12% = 7% + capital gains yield
12% - 7% = capital gains yield
Capital gain yield = 5%
d. Iya. Ketika investor ingin menunda pembayaran pajak, maka invesotir akan memiliki
untuk dividen yang lebih kecil dan high-growth stocks. Dibanding seebaliknya dengan
rate return yang sama. Karena walaupun rate of returnnya sama, namun investor akan
lebih banyak mendapat pembayaran pajak yang lebih sedikit karena dividennya lebih
rendah. Kemudian pembayaran pajak capital gain mungkin akan terlambat/tertunda
kembali, ketika mendapat rate of return yang sama. Stock WME akan menjadi mature
ketika supernatural growth rate menjadi normal kembali, seperti yang terjadi pada akhir
2020 karena sudah memiliki nilai konstan 5%.
e. Hubungan antara growth rate dari dividend dan harga stock adalah langsung. Karena
harga stock berasal dari dividen streams yang akan diterima dimasa depan atuapun dari
alirn cash flows. Ketika pertumbuhan dividen rendah, maka jumlah dividen yang diterima
juga akan jauh lebih rendah. Maka, secara teknis harga stock pun akan juga lebih rendah.
f. Kebalikan dengan hal ini. Bahwa hubungan antara required of return dan harga stock
berkebalikan. Maka ketika required rate meningkat, harga stock menurun. Pada hal ini
requires rate of return meningkat dari 12% ke 14%, berarti harga stock nya menurun. Hal
ini sama seperti ketika kita mencari dividen yield sama dengan (D1/P0). Maka ketika P0
menururn, maka D1 akan meningkat, setidaknya dalam jangka pendek. Secara jangka
panjang capital gains yield akan turun, karena growth rate menurun darii 6% ke 4%.
Namun secara jangka pendek, tidak bisa ditentukan tanpa perhitungan. Karena
meningkatnya required return bisa ada atau tidaknya terdapat meningkatnya dividen
yield.
