Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report

11th Oct, 2021

Domestic Fundamentals:
Market Outlook:
The cotton physical market showed a mixed trend today. MCX cotton spot price was higher at Rs.28,480/bale on
Saturday.ICE cotton futures closed red on Friday.

News: Pink Bollborm attack in Sangrur. The cotton crop on 1,500 acres in 85 villages of Sangrur has come under pink
bollworm attack. In Barnala, the attack has caused panic among farmers. In many villages the repeated sprays of
insecticides have failed to prevent the spread of the attack.

Cotton export may go down in 2021-22 season. India’s cotton export may go down to 5 million bales in the new season
since local demand has been rising. According to Agriwatch estimate, India has exported around 7.5million bales in 2020-
21 season. However, good quality cotton is not available right now for exports. From November, supply of good quality
cotton would improve, and prices may come down because of supply pressure. Leading cotton producing states including
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh received heavy rainfall in September. The production in the new
season is expected to fall as rainfall has badly affected early-sown crop in all key producing states. Crop yields and quality
of crop are going to be affected by rainfall. Cotton harvested in the first picking is likely to be of poor quality.

Cotton picking may extend till November – December during 2021-22 season. Unseasonal rains in the cotton growing
areas might help cotton farmers to go in for third and fouth picking of their crop this year. Raw cotton prices have
increased to Rs. 7,500 per quintal in Gujarat. Also, the availability of water has increased due to excess rainfall in
September in growing regions that makes cotton a preferred crop over other rabi (winter) crops such as wheat, paddy or
chana.

Cabinet approves 7 mega textile parks under PM-MITRA scheme. The cabinet has approved seven new mega textile
parks. It allocates Rs. 4,445 crore for the next 5 years, with an aim to develop a world class infrastructure with plug to
play facilities that enables major investments in exports. According to the textile minister, the parks are a part of
government’s ‘farm to fibre to factory to fashion to foreign’ push and will generate 1-2 lakh indirect employment per
park.

Rains affect the unsold cotton in the mandi. The unsold raw cotton at several mandis of Muktsar, Bhatinda, and Fazilka
was damaged due to sudden showers in Punjab. The ready-to-harvest crop was also affected in terms of the quality of
cotton bolls at several places. Harvesting in some areas of malwa would be stalled for at least five days due to rains.
Earlier, farmers of Bathinda and Mansa districts were already braving losses caused by the pink bollworm attack and the
inclement weather would hit them further.

The heavy rain caused by Cyclone Gulab in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and
Chhattisgarh have damaged the standing crop of cotton at many places. Excess rainfall in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and
Telangana could affect the yield of cotton which is in the flowering stage. There are specific reports of losses to the
cotton crop in the northern Marathwada region of Maharashtra, Srikakulam, and Vizianagaram districts of Andhra
Pradesh, Sangareddy district of Telangana, and Khargone district of Madhya Pradesh. Besides the loss in yield, the
arrivals are also expected to get delayed in Maharashtra. Also, the quality of first picking has been affected in all affected
places. These losses have caused a bullish impact on prices. Also, the international prices have been strong over the last
week of September, but are expected to cool down during October.
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

Weather Forecast:
Thunderstorm accompanied with lightening & gusty winds very likely at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands,
with lightening at isolated places over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat state, Coastal
Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Karnataka, Rayalseema, Kerala & Mahe Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Karikal. Heavy
rainfall at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Interior
Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe, Rayalseema, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Karikal.

International Fundamentals:
The ICE cotton Futures was higher by 55 points at 111.61 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was at 117.90 cents/lb. The AWP
for cotton was at 91.81 cents/lb.

According to USDA, as on 03rd October 2021, 13% US cotton has been harvested compared to 16 percent last year and 19
percent five year average. However, 62 percent US Cotton is in good to excellent condition compared to 40 percent last
year.

According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee October Report, cotton production and stock projections for
the 2021-22 season, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has indicated that the global output of the fibre
crop will be around 25.7 million tonnes (mt), which would be higher by six per cent over previous year, but still be lower
than the pre-pandemic levels. The ending stocks for 2020-21 has been revised downward to 20 mt, leading to the world
cotton supply to be around 45.8 mt for the 2021-22 season. The global consumption is estimated at 25.9 mt.

The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee had revised the Pakistan’s cotton production target downward by 19 percent
from 10.5 million to 8.46 million bales. Apart from lowest area under cotton cultivation i.e. 1.871 million hectares, some
major biotic constraints including cotton leaf curl virus, mealybug, and whitefly attacks have also forced the government
to cut the estimates. According to Syed Fakhar Imam, Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research, cotton
production may exceed the estimate of 8.46 million bales, as 2.69 million bales of cotton have been transferred to the
ginning factories till September 15, compared to 1.04 million bales in same period of last year. Whereas last year, the
cotton production was around 5.57 million bales.

According to USDA’S World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, World 2021/22 production is
higher this month as increases for the United States, Australia, and Argentina offset declines in India, Greece, and several
countries in West Africa’s Zone. World trade in 2021/22 is still projected down from the previous year’s record 48.5
million bales, but is projected 500,000 bales higher than in August, at 46.8 million bales.

Egyptian cotton production and exports may rise in the marketing year 2021-22 as the country’s area under cotton
harvest is likely to increase to 85,000 hectares, a 30.77 percent growth over the previous MY’s area of 65,000 hectares.
The expected increase in cotton production coupled with the rising demand across the world will boost the country’s
exports.

MCX Cotton Futures*: (Prices in Rs/170 kgs)

Contract +/- Open High Low Close Volume OI

MXCTNC1 +1010 30500 31500 30500 29920 1572 2179
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

DOMESTIC PRICES AND ARRIVAL

Cotton Prices at Key Spot Markets:

Commodity Kapas Prices (Rs./Quintal)
Change
State Centre Variety 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Ahmedabad Shankar-6 8250 8250 Unch
Gondal Shankar-6 Closed NA -
Rajkot B.T. Cotton 8350 8355 -5
Gujarat Patan B.T. Cotton 8250 8500 -250
Kadi B.T. Cotton 7000 7000 Unch
Deesa B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Dhrol B.T. Cotton NA 7135 -
Bhiwani B.T. Cotton 7400 7330 70
Bhiwani Desi NA NA -
Adampur B.T. Cotton 7650 7500 150
Haryana Fatehabad B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Jind B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Uchana B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Dabwali B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Hanumangarh B.T. Cotton 7700 7700 Unch
Rajasthan
Rawatsar B.T. Cotton 7500 7500 Unch
Khandwa Mech-1 NA NA -
Madhya Pradesh
Khargaon Mech-1 NA NA -
Amravati Mech-1 6700 6700 Unch
Maharashtra
Jamner Medium Staple NA NA -
Hathras B.T. Cotton 6500 6500 Unch
Uttar Pradesh
Hathras Desi 6500 6500 Unch
Telangana Adilabad Un-Ginned NA NA -
Bijapur Bunny NA 8529 -
Karnataka
Hubli D.C.H. NA NA -
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

Hubli B.T. Cotton NA NA -

Raichur H-44 Cotton NA NA -
Commodity Lint Prices (Rs./Maund)
Change
State Centre Variety 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Bhatinda J-34 5960 5970 -10
Punjab Abohar J-34 5980 6000 -20
Mansa J-34 5950 5940 10
Haryana Sirsa J-34 5925 5950 -25
Rajasthan Sri-Ganganagar J-34 5499 5499 Unch

Cotton Arrivals in Key Centers:

Commodity Kapas Arrivals (Quintal)
Change
State Centre Variety 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Ahmedabad Shankar-6 17000 17000 Unch
Gondal Shankar-6 Closed NA -
Rajkot B.T. Cotton 3600 3400 200
Gujarat Patan B.T. Cotton 3262 2297 965
Kadi B.T. Cotton 6000 6000 Unch
Deesa B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Dhrol B.T. Cotton NA 82 -
Bhiwani B.T. Cotton 5000 5500 -500
Bhiwani Desi NA NA -
Adampur B.T. Cotton 1190 1700 -510
Haryana Fatehabad B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Jind B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Uchana B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Dabwali B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Hanumangarh B.T. Cotton 700 1500 -800
Rajasthan
Rawatsar B.T. Cotton 6000 7000 -1000
Khandwa Mech-1 NA NA -
Madhya Pradesh
Khargaon Mech-1 NA NA -
Amravati Mech-1 1500 1600 -100
Maharashtra
Jamner Medium Staple NA NA -
Hathras B.T. Cotton 50 50 Unch
Uttar Pradesh
Hathras Desi 50 50 Unch
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

Telangana Adilabad Un-Ginned NA NA -

Bijapur Bunny NA 404 -
Hubli D.C.H. NA NA -
Karnataka
Hubli B.T. Cotton NA NA -
Raichur H-44 Cotton NA NA -
Commodity Lint Arrivals (Quintal)
Change
State Centre Variety 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Bhatinda J-34 10200 5100 5100
Punjab Abohar J-34 2040 2550 -510
Mansa J-34 510 680 -170
Haryana Sirsa J-34 850 1190 -340
Rajasthan Sri-Ganganagar J-34 1500 1500 Unch

Cotton Seed Oil Prices:

Commodity Cotton Seed Oil Price
Change
State Centre Unit 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Gujarat Rajkot Rs. /10 Kg. 1470 1470 Unch
Delhi New Delhi Rs. /10 Kg. NR NR -
Telangana Hyderabad Rs. /10 Kg. 1460 1460 Unch
Maharashtra Mumbai Rs. /10 Kg. 1450 1450 Unch

Cotton Seed Oil Seed Cake Prices:

Commodity Cotton Seed Oil Seed Cake Price
Change
State Centre Unit 09-Oct-21 08-Oct-21
Gujarat Mahesana (Kadi) Rs./Qtl 2695 2720 -25
Maharashtra Akola Rs./Qtl 2792 2802 -10

INTERNATIONAL PRICES AND INDICES

China Cotton Index:
Index Unit 30-Sep-21 29-Sep-21 Change
CCIndex(328) RMB/Ton 19104 18935 169
CCIndex(527) RMB/Ton 18197 17969 228
CCIndex(229) RMB/Ton 19522 19232 290
RMB -Renminbi, 1RMB =0.16 $U.S.
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

China Foreign Cotton (FCE) Index :

Index Unit 29-Sep-21 29-Sep-21 Change
FC Index (S) Cents/lb 114.09 114.09 Unch
FC Index (M) Cents/lb 112.56 112.56 Unch
FC Index (L) Cents/lb 111.37 111.37 Unch

Cotlook Index:
Cotlook Indices Unit 30-Sep-21 29-Sep-21 Change
A-Index Cents/Pound 112.15 110.15 2.00

USDA Cotton Spot Rates:

Leaf 4 to Staple 34 Leaf 3 to Staple 35 Arrivals
Growth Area Unit
30-Sep-21 28-Sep-21 Bales
Southeast cents/lb. 105.55 102.03 0
North Delta cents/lb. 104.55 101.03 0
South Delta cents/lb. 104.55 101.03 0
East TX-OK cents/lb. 103.3 100.63 1193
West Texas cents/lb. 102.05 99.03 674
Desert SW cents/lb. 99.05 96.78 0
SJ Valley cents/lb. 99.55 102.68 0
Spot quotations are for cotton equal to the official standards, net weight, in mixed lots. Upland quotations are
FOB car/truck, which includes compression and any brokerage charges. The upland base quality is color 41,
leaf grade 4, staple 34 (1.05 to 1.07), mike 3.5, 3.6 and 4.3 to 4.9, strength 26.5 to 28.4 grams per Tex and
uniformity 80.5 to 81.4

Pakistan Cotton Spot rates: As on 07-Oct-2021 (in Pakistan Rupees)

Product Rate for Ex-Gin Price Up Country Sales Spot Rate Karachi
Cotton 37.32Kgs 9400 180 14880
Equivalent 40 Kgs 10074 193 15947

Daily Futures Price Listing Friday, Oct 08th, 2021

Most Recent Information Previous Day

Month Date Open High Low Close Change Volume Open Int Change

Cotton(ICE)

Oct-21 211008 11.61 116.48 110.33 110.60 -1.01 41,048 135,845 -3,927

Dec-21 211008 108.66 113.18 107.76 107.91 -0.82 18,776 82,738 +2,312

Mar-22 211008 107.38 111.61 106.42 106.77 -0.50 6,083 25,357 -491

May-22 211008 104.57 108.51 104.02 104.70 +0.12 3,949 18,119 -214

Jul-22 211008 93.53 93.53 93.53 93.53 -0.75 8 17 -2

Oct-22 211008 88.54 90.50 88..50 88.68 -018 1,703 24,963 +710
 Cotton-Daily-Fundamental-Report
11th Oct, 2021

Total Volume and Open Interest 71,791 289,200 -1,658

Source: MRCI

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