8.

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SAMPLE SIZE

Objectives:
At the end of the chapter, the student should be able to:
1. Find the confidence intervals for a population
a. mean;
b. proportion;
c. variance; and
d. standard deviation.
2. Determine the sample size needed to estimate a population mean.
3. Find the sample size for a proportion.

Introduction
There are two estimators that can be used for the population mean when it is not possible to work
for the whole population. The point estimate for the population mean is the sample mean is the sample
mean while the interval estimate states two values that the population mean should fall between. The
intervals are called confidence intervals. An alpha level is picked to correspond to what confidence is
desired. For example, a 99% confidence interval would be . If for instance, 95%
percent confidence interval is , then we can be 95 percent confident that the population
mean is between 18 and 26.

The Confidence interval for the Population Mean

A is used to find the confidence interval if the population standard deviation is known or if the
sample size is greater than or equal to 31. A is used to find if the population standard deviation is
not known and the sample size is less than 31. The and values are found on tables in many statistical
books.
The confidence interval intervals for the population mean if the population standard deviation is
known or can de determined by the formula:
̅ ( ) ̅ ( )
√ √
two tailed from the Table for for the desired confidence interval.
The confidence interval intervals for the population mean if the population standard deviation is
not known or can de determined by the formula:
̅ ( ) ̅ ( )
√ √
two tailed from the Table for for the desired confidence interval and the degree of
freedom is equal to
Example 1. If a sample size of 48 has a sample mean of 416 and a standard deviation of 15, find
a 95% confidence interval for the population mean.
Solution: Since , we use . For , two tailed Using
the formula, ̅ ( ) ̅ ( ) – z , we have
√ √
( ) ( )=
√ √

Hence, there is a 95% probability that the population mean is between 411.8 and 420.2.

Example 2. Find a 99% confidence interval for the population mean if a sample of 28 has a mean
of 212 and a standard deviation of 21.
Solution. Since , we use . For , two tailed Using
the formula ̅ ( ) ̅ ( ).
√ √

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 ( ) ( )
√ √

Thus, there is a 95% probability that the population mean is between 201 and 223.

Deciding the Minimum Sample Size

To decide the minimum sample size to make an accurate estimate, the population standard
deviation must be known. The level and the maximum error of estimate, , must be decided upon
The minimum sample size needed for an interval estimate for the population mean is:
( ) Round up
where is the maximum error of estimate and is the two-tailed value of from the Table for the
desired confidence interval.
Example 3. Find the minimum sample size needed to estimate a population mean if the standard
deviation is 24, the confidence interval desired is 95% and a maximum error estimate of 5.
Solution: The desired confidence interval is 95% so, , two tailed
and . Using the formula, ( ) , we get:

( )

Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion

The point estimate for a population proportion, , is the sample proportion, ̂ . To find a
confidence interval for a population proportion, ̂ and ̂ must be greater than or equal to 5 where
̂ ̂ . When ̂ is unknown, we use ̂ .
The confidence interval for the population proportion when ̂ and ̂ is determined by the
formula:
̂̂ ̂̂
̂ √ ̂ √

two tailed from the Table for for the desired confidence interval.

Example 4. Find a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion if a sample of 200 had a
sample proportion of 42%.
Solution: Given: , ̂ ,̂ ,
̂ and ̂ are both greater than 5, so we use z, that is, two
tailed So,
̂̂ ̂̂
̂ √ ̂ √

√ √

This implies that we are 99% confident that the population is between 0.33 and 0.51.

Sample Size for a Population Proportion

The minimum sample size needed for an interval estimate for the population proportion is

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 ̂ ̂ ( ) Round up
Where is the maximum error of estimate, ̂ sample mean and ̂ ̂

Example 5. Find the minimum sample size required to find the 90% interval estimate for a
population proportion if you want to be accurate within 2%.
Solution: Since ̂ is not given, let ̂ and ̂ , , two tailed

̂̂ ( ) ( )

Confidence Interval for a Population Variance and Standard Deviation

A confidence interval for a population variance and standard deviation can be determined from a
sample variance using the chi-square value:

For a population variance we have, For a standard deviation we have,

√ √

where
is the sample size is the sample variance
is the table value for is the table value for .

Example 6. Find the 95% confidence interval for a population variance if a sample of 28 had a
variance of 116.
Solution: We use the formula:

,
Using the Table, at , we have
is the table value for , so

is the table value for ,

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 Worksheet 8

Direction: SOLVE EACH OF THE PROBLEMS BELOW. DETERMINE WHETHER THE

CORRESPONDING GIVEN ANSWERS ARE TRUE. IF NOT, GIVE THE CORRECT
ANSWER.

1. If a sample size of 45 has a sample mean of 83 and a standard deviation of 3.5, find a 95%
confidence interval for the population mean. ANS:
2. Find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean if a sample of 20 has a mean of 1462 and
a standard deviation of 20. ANS:
3. Find the minimum sample size needed to estimate a population mean if the population standard
deviation is 5, the confidence interval desired is 95% and a maximum error estimate of 2.
ANS:
4. Find a 90% confidence interval for the population proportion if a sample of 98 had a sample
proportion of 21%. ANS:
5. Find the minimum sample size required to find the 90% interval estimate for a population
proportion if you want to be accurate within 4%. ANS:
6. Find the 99% confidence interval for a population variance if a sample of 19 had a variance of 83.
ANS:

References:

Beaver, B.M. and Beaver R.J. (1999). Introduction to Probability and Statistics. 10th ed. New York:
Duxbury Press.
Bluman, A. (1998) Elementary Statistics: A Step by Step Approach. 3 rd ed. McGraw-Hill Book Co.
Deuna, Melecio C. (1996), Elementary Statistics for Basic Education. Quezon City: Phownix
Publishing House, Inc.
Febre, F.A. and Virginia F. Cawagas (Consultant)(1987) Introduction to Statistics. Metro Manila,
Pheonix Publishing House, Inc.
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Ferguson G. (1981) Statistical Analysis in Psychology and Education. 5 th ed. New York: McGraw-
Hill Book Company.
Padua, R. N., E.G. Adanza and R.T. Guinto (1986) Statistics: Theoty and Applications. Metro Manila:
Hermil Printing Services.
Reyes, C.Z. and Saren, L.L. (2003). Metro Manila. M.G. Reprographics.
Spiegel, M. and Stephens, L. (1999). Schaum’s Outline Theory and Problems in Probability and
Statistics. 3rd. Edition. Singapore: McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Triola, Mario (1995) Elementary Statistics. New York: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Walpole, R.E (1982) Introduction to Statistics. 3rd ed. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co. Inc.

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