Factors Influencing Investment Decisions of Individual Investors at Nepal Stock Exchange
Factors Influencing Investment Decisions of Individual Investors at Nepal Stock Exchange
Keywords: Nepal Stock Exchange, Investment Decision, Individual investor, investment behavior.
* Lecturer, Padma Kanya Multiple Campus, PhD Scholar, Faculty of Management, TU, Nepal.
Email Id: [email protected]
184 Management Dynamics, Vol.23, No.1, 2020 ISSN: 2091-0460
Introduction
Investors’ investment decisions are normally based on fundamental analysis, technical
analysis, and judgment. Investment refers to the current commitment of rupees for a period
of time in order to derive potential payments that will compensate the investor for the time the
funds are committed, the rate of inflation anticipated during that period, and the uncertainty
of future payments (Reilly & Brown, 2011)
According to traditional financial theory, investors want to maximize their wealth according
to basic financial principles and rely solely on risk-return consideration for their investment
strategies. In fact, however, the degree of risk that they are willing to take is not the same for
all investors. This relies primarily on their personal attitudes towards risk. In recent years,
behavioral finance research has progressed rapidly and provides evidence that the financial
decisions of investors are often influenced by internal and external behavioral factors (Shefrin,
1999).
Statement of problem
Investment decisions are commonly assumed to be a result of many variables, such as market
features and individual risk profiles. The disposition error suggests that investors are impacted
by sunk cost factors and asymmetrical risk preferences for gain/loss situations, regardless
of accounting information. Nagy and Obenberger (1994) analyzed variables influencing
investor behavior and concluded that for investors, classical wealth-maximization criteria are
key, while investors use different criteria when selecting stocks. Only cursory consideration
appears to be given to contemporary issues such as local or foreign activities, environmental
track record, and the ethical stance of the company. The suggestions of brokerage houses,
individual stockbrokers, family members, and coworkers go largely overlooked. Many
individual investors ignored the benefits of valuation models when evaluating stocks.
Riley and Chow (1992) viewed that risk aversion decreases not only as wealth rises, but also
as age, income, and education rise. Baker and Haslem (1973) found that the key investment
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considerations for individual investors are dividends, projected returns, and the financial
stability of the company. Baker, Haargrove, and Haslem (1977) studied further considering the
risk/return tradeoff of the investment and recommended that investors behave rationally.
Investment decisions need to undergo a detailed review of the prevailing circumstances based
on a variety of factors, but investors are keen to avoid uncertainties associated with the final
decisions they make regardless of the varied knowledge available that justifies rationality and
irrationality. It is against this context that this research attempted to fill the gap by defining
the variables that tend to affect individual investment decisions, and included not only the
variables examined by previous studies and derived from prevailing theories of behavioral
finance, but also added additional variables that have been found to influence the investment
decisions of stockholders in the emerging local market, NEPSE. The study deals with the
following issues:
1. To what extent accounting information like financial statement condition and stock
marketability effects individual investor decision-making?
2. To what extent self-image/ firm image factors affect the individual investor decision-
making of retails equity investors in Nepal?
3. To what extent neutral information factors affect individual investor decision making?
4. To what extent advocate recommendation factors like opinions of the firm’s majority
stockholder and Broker’s recommendation effects individual investor decision making?
5. To what extent personal financial needs factors like diversification needs and attractiveness
of non-stock investment effects individual investor decision making in Nepal?
Objectives of study
The main objective of the study is to determine the most influencing factors on individual
investment decisions of investors in the Nepalese stock market. Some specific objectives of
this study are:
Review of literature
In describing the behavioral aspects of investment decisions, behavioral finance has made
remarkable strides. Under uncertainty, behavioral finance explores preference. Three major
theories frame behavioral finance: Regret-theory, the theory of mental accounting, prospect/
loss-aversion-theory, over/under-reacting theory, and theory of overconfidence. Each theory
captures the behavioral attributes of individual investors.
Using the investor survey method taking the sample size of 185 investors, Kadariya (2012)
analyzed the factors affecting investor decision-making on the Nepalese capital market
and found that the capital Structure and average pricing strategies are one-factor shaping
investment decisions, the next is political and media interest, trust in luck and financial
education is the third factor, and trend analysis is finally the fourth aspect of the stock
market movement. It is, therefore, concluded that both tangible and intangible information is
important to get success in the Nepalese capital market.
Another study conducted by Pokharel (2018) also analyzed the factors affecting investment
decision of individual investors in the Nepalese stock market employing investor’s opinion
survey method of data collection and revealed that the advice of brokers and movements in
NEPSE Index are the most influencing factors and news in the daily newspaper and market
sentiments are viewed as the least influencing factors.
The overconfidence of investors in the accuracy of private information and biased self-
attribution brought asymmetric changes in investor confidence as a function of their
investment performance (Subrahmanyam, Hirshleifer, & Daniel, 1998).
The neutral-information
Kadiyala and Rau (2004) examined investor reaction to corporate event announcements.
They concluded that investors seem to be under-reacting to prior information as well as
to the information conveyed by the event, leading to different patterns. Behavioral finance
literature has presented two contradictory models of irrational investor behavior. In the
first model, investors appear to overreact to information, leading to a pattern of long-term
return reversals when companies announce corporate events such as new issues of stock. In
the second model, when businesses announce corporate events such as open market share
repurchases or repurchases via tender offers, investors underreact to information, resulting in
the long-term continuation of return. Behavioral models have been viewed with uncertainty
partly because they do not reconcile why investors tend to overreact to a corporate event
such as a further public offering while appearing to underreact to an event such as a share
repurchase.
The accounting-information
Baker and Haslem (1974) concluded that, based on historical evidence, investors were mainly
concerned with prospective earnings expectations. On the other hand, research conducted
by Lee and Tweedie (1975, 1976, 1977 & 1981) found that financial reporting in the corporate
ISSN: 2091-0460 Factors Influencing Investment Decisions 187
sector is difficult for the general public to grasp. Blume and Friend (1978) found proof that
the key risk measures employed by individuals are both price and earnings uncertainty. In
addition, Lewellen et al. (1977) disclosed that the key source of information for investors
is through fundamental or technical analysis. Nagy and Obenberger (1994) examined the
degree to which the perception of shareholders was influenced by a list of 34 variables and
presented proof of a role for a combination of financial and non-financial variables.
The advocate-recommendation
The investor already holding stock may respond to the recommendation of the analyst in one
of four ways: the investor may hold stock on a recommendation to sell, the investor may sell
a stock on a recommendation to hold, the investor may hold stock on a recommendation to
hold, or the investor may sell a stock on a recommendation to sell. Krishnan and Booker (2002)
studied the variables affecting investor decisions that use recommendations from analysts to
arrive at a short-term decision to hold or sell a stock. The findings revealed that a strong
form of the recommendation summary report of the analyst, i.e., one with additional details
further supporting the position of the analysts, reduces both disposition errors for-profits and
disposition errors for losses.
The personal-financial-needs
Prospect theory proposes that certain outcomes are overweighted relative to uncertain
outcomes and that the value functions are different for gains and losses Rational logic implies
that individuals should sell the stock regardless of their current benefit or loss status when
dealing with a stock of unfavorable potential expectations. Previous research on sunken costs
and increased participation, however, shows that individuals may become trapped in losing
courses of action even to the point of throwing good money after bad money (Arkes & Blumer
1985; Brockner 1992; Staw & Hoang 1995). Thus, rather than selling and taking a certain loss,
people may choose to hold a losing stock and bet on the future and may even become more
committed to holding the stock.
Neutral information
Methodology
Method of data collection
The research design of this study has been based on a structured questionnaire. This style
of research design does not have influence over the variables from which respondents’
opinions are generated. It enables hypotheses to be tested empirically and local conclusions
can be generalized from the entire sample used for the study. For the purpose of this study,
secondary data will also be used to some extent. Secondary data will be obtained from several
sources, such as journal articles, newspapers, websites, textbooks, annual reports, and other
related publications.
data have been analyzed using descriptive statistics and factor analysis techniques with the
help of the SPSS package.
uncorrelated linear combinations. In order to define and reduce the variables to interpretable
components, Varimax rotation along with Kaiser Criterion was used. Communality is the
square multiple coefficients of correlation for variables that use the variables as predictors.
The communality calculates the percentage of variance in a given variable, which can be
interpreted as the reliability of the predictor and is explained collectively by all the variables.
It is the proportion of variance that each entity or variable has in common with other objects.
For instance, 97.8% communality is the highest variability in the factor “Statements from
government officials”, while the lowest variability was captured for the factor “Reputation
of the firm” with a communality of 0.549 %. A total of 5 components were extracted from the
factors. Component 1 describes the greatest variation found, followed by component 2 and
so on. From the table, component 1 accounts for 23.041% of the total observed variability
while component 2 explains 20.715%, component three 14.189%, component four 11.929 %,
and component five 10.017 %. The five extracted components explain 79.890 % of the total
variability for all the 35 variables.
Factor selection
Based on table 1.10 and 1.11, accounting information is the most influencing factor that
influences Nepalese investors’ investment decisions. Component 1 (Accounting Information)
consists of Stock Marketability, affordable share price, insiders’ information, the results of
technical analysis, condition of financial statements, information obtained from the internet,
expected capital increase, expected corporate earnings, the dividend paid, and rumors.
Component 2(Self-Image/ Firm Image Coincidence) consists of getting rich quickly, feeling
on the economy, the reputation of the firm, feelings for a firm’s products and services, the
reputation of the firm’s shareholders, perceived ethics of firm, firm status in industry and
Firm’s involvement in solving community problems. Components 3 (Advocate Information)
consists of family member opinions, opinions of the firm’s majority stockholders, friend
and co-worker recommendations, broker recommendation, and Financial advisors and
analysts’ recommendation. Component 4 (Neutral Information) consists of Current economic
indicators, Statements from government officials, Recent price movement in a firm’s stock,
Coverage in the press, Past performance of the firm’s stock, Fluctuation/developments in
the stock index, and Government holdings. Component 5 (Personal Financing Need) consists
of the expected dividends, diversification purpose, minimizing risk, and ease of obtaining
borrowed funds.
family member opinions, recent price movement in a firm’s stock, fluctuations in the stock
index, rumors, expected corporate eating, stock marketability, the results of technical analysis,
the dividend paid, perceived ethics of firm, the reputation of the firm’s shareholders, and
feeling for a firm’s product and services.
The results of this research will provide an understanding of the different decisions to be
taken by investors on the basis of the prevailing factors and the possible consequences of each
decision. The analysis would also help to recognize the most significant factors in the behavior
of the company’s investors as their potential policies and plans will be impacted as the
investment decisions of investors will determine the strategy to be used by the company.
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ISSN: 2091-0460 Factors Influencing Investment Decisions 193
Appendices
Table 1.1: Descriptive statistics for Gender
Frequency Percent
Male 195 91.1
Female 19 8.9
Intermediate 20 9.3
Bachelor 77 36.0
Initial Extraction
Feelings for a firm’s products and services 1.000 0.827
Components
1 2 3 4 5
Factor 1: Accounting Information
Stock Marketability 0.793
Affordable share price 0.774
Insiders’ information 0.752
The results of technical analysis 0.710
Condition of financial statements 0.698
Information obtained from the internet 0.648
Expected capital increase 0.836
Expected corporate earnings 0.661
Dividend paid 0.814
Rumors 0.761
Factor 2: Self-Image/ Firm Image Coincidence
To get rich quickly 0.580
Feeling on the economy 0.613
Reputation of the firm 0.570
Feelings for a firm’s products and services 0.708
Reputation of the firm’s shareholders 0.846
Perceived ethics of firm 0.899
Firm status in industry 0.870
Firm’s involvement in solving community
problems 0.784
Factor 3: Advocate Information
Family member opinions 0.878
Opinions of the firm’s majority stockholders 0.878
Friend and co-worker recommendations 0.849
Broker recommendation 0.849
Financial advisors and analysts’ 0.718
recommendation
4. Neutral Information
Current economic indicators 0.847
198 Management Dynamics, Vol.23, No.1, 2020 ISSN: 2091-0460
SI 3.7812 0.46303
NI 3.4241 0.32081