QT 1 Post Mid Topics Oct 2020
QT 1 Post Mid Topics Oct 2020
https://www.menti.com/axzzeieuud
Or
Examples:
Example
On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia exploded. This was the second
disaster in 113 space missions for NASA. On the basis of this information, what
is the probability that a future mission is successfully completed?
Approaches to Probability Conti….
SUBJECTIVE CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY : The likelihood (probability) of a
particular event happening that is assigned by an individual based on
whatever information is available
A probability statement always assigns a likelihood to an event that
has not yet occurred
1. What is the probability you will save one million dollars by the time you
retire? Which approach to probability did you use to answer this question?
2. One card will be randomly selected from a standard 52-card deck. What is
the probability the card will be a queen? Which approach to probability did
you use to answer this question?
3. The Center for Child Care reports on 539 children and the marital status of
their parents. There are 333 married, 182 divorced, and 24 widowed
parents. What is the probability a particular child chosen at random will
have a parent who is divorced? Which approach did you use?
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities
Addition
is the sum of their
probabilities less joint • P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) – P(AnB)
events
Example 1 :
A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, nuts and other
vegetables. Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because
of the variation in the size of the beans and other vegetables, a
package might be underweight or overweight. A check of 4,000
packages filled in the past month revealed
Underweight → 100
Satisfactory → 3600 and
Overweight → 300
Example 1 : Conti….
a)
Note that the events are mutually exclusive and they are also
collectively exhaustive
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities
Example:
A Tourist company selected a sample of 200 tourists who visited the country during the
year. The survey revealed that 120 tourists went to Taj Mahal and 100 went to Red Fort.
What is the probability that a person selected visited either Taj Mahal or Red Fort. If the
special rule of addition is used, the probability of selecting a tourist who went to Taj
Mahal is .60, found by 120/200. Similarly, the probability of a tourist going to Red Fort is
.50
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities
Example: A Tourist company selected a sample of 200 tourists who visited the country
during the year. The survey revealed that 120 tourists went to Taj Mahal and 100 went to
Red Fort. What is the probability that a person selected visited either Taj Mahal or Red
Fort. If the special rule of addition is used, the probability of selecting a tourist who
went to Taj Mahal is .60, found by 120/200. Similarly, the probability of a tourist going to
Red Fort is .50. The sum of these probabilities is 1.10.
We know, however, that this probability cannot be greater than 1. The explanation is that
many tourists visited both attractions and are being counted twice! A check of the survey
responses revealed that 60 out of 200 sampled did, in fact, visit both attractions.
P(Taj Mahal or Red Fort ) = P(Taj Mahal) + P(Red Fort) − P(both Taj Mahal and Red Fort)
= .60 + .50 − .30 = .80
Note: When two events both occur, the probability is called a joint
probability
Solve:
What is the probability that a card chosen at random from a standard deck of
cards will be either a king or a heart?
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities
Solution:
Note: The total number of people in the sample is 755. The row totals are 305 and 450.
The column totals are 70 and 685. Notice that 305 + 450 = 755 and 70 + 685 = 755.
The following is the data of males and females who each have a given eye
color.
The following is the data of males and females who each have a given eye
color.
Equating 1 and 2
Application:
Conditional Probability : P(A/B)
P ( A and B) = P (A) . P (B/A)
P (B/A) = P (A and B) / P (A) or P (A/B) = P (A and B) / P (B)
1. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests
and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who
passed the first test also passed the second test (60)
2. A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without
replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white
marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a black marble on the first
draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the
second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black? (72)
3. The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since
there are 5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2.
What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday?
(15)
4. At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology
and Spanish is 0.087. The probability that a student takes Technology is
0.68. What is the probability that a student takes Spanish given that the
student is taking Technology? (13)
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem
Application:
Solve:
1. Suppose that we have two identical boxes: box 1 and box 2. Box 1
contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Box 2 contains 2 red balls and 4 blue
balls. A box is selected at random and exactly one ball is drawn from the
box. (0.5) [Law of total probability]
a).What is the probability that a randomly picked up ball is blue?
b). Given that the selected ball is blue, what’s the probability that it came
from box 2? (0.6)
2. A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards and discarded (i.e. not
replaced). A second card is drawn from the remaining deck of 51 cards.
a). What is the probability that the second card is a spade?
b). Given that the second card was a spade, what is the probability that
the first card was also a spade (0.25)
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem
Application:
1. An insurance company divides its policy holders into three categories: low
risk, moderate risk, and high risk. The low-risk policy holders account for
60% of the total number of people insured by the company. The moderate-
risk policy holders account for 30%, and the high-risk policy holders
account for 10%. The probabilities that a low-risk, moderate-risk, and
high-risk policy holder will file a claim within a given year are respectively
.01, .10, and .50. Given that a policy holder files a claim this year, what is
the probability that the person is a high-risk policy holder? (0.58)
2. Two production lines produce the same part. Line 1 produces 1,000 parts
per week of which 100 are defective. Line 2 produces 2,000 parts per
week of which 150 are defective. If you choose a part randomly from the
stock what is the probability it is defective? If it is defective what is the
probability it was produced by line 1? (0.57)
Probabilities of Outcome
Event (X) P(X) Events (X) P (x)
1 P(1) = 1/6 0.16666
T, T 0 0.25
2 P(2)= 1/6 0.16666
3 P(3)=1/6 0.16666 H ,T 1 0.25
4 P(4) =1/6 0.16666 T, H 1 0.25
5 P(5) =1/6 0.16666 H, H 2 0.25
6 P(6) =1/6 0.16666
1
Total 0.99996
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
▪ Random Variable
▪ Discrete and Continuous Random Variables
▪ Mean, Variance and Standard deviation of discrete probability
distribution
Binominal Distribution
Characteristics of Binominal Distribution
Example:
Your basketball team is playing a series of 5 games against your opponent. The
winner is those who wins more games (out of 5).
Let us assume that your team is much more skilled and has 75% chances of
winning. It means there is a 25% chance of losing.
What is the probability of your team gets 3 wins?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example:
2. Let’s say that 80% of all business startups in the IT industry report that they
generate a profit in their first year. If a sample of 10 new IT business startups
is selected, find the probability that exactly seven will generate a profit in
their first year. (0.2013)
Note: This distribution is a limiting form of the binomial distribution when the
probability of a success is very small and n is large.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Poisson Distribution
Examples:
1. Suppose a fast food restaurant can expect two customers every 3 minutes,
on average. What is the probability that four or fewer customers will
enter the restaurant in a 9 minute period?
2. Let's say you are a cashier at Wal-Mart. It is 4:30pm and your shift ends at
5:00pm. The store policy is to close your checkout line 15 minutes before
your shift ends (in this case 4:45) so that you can finish checking-out the
customers already in your line and leave on-time.
By examining overhead cameras, store data indicates that between
4:30pm and 4:45pm each weekday, an average of 10 customers enter any
given checkout line.
What is the probability that exactly 7 customers enter your line between
4:30 and 4:45? What is the probability that more than 10 people arrive?
(Which means you will probably be on shift later than 5:00pm)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Standard Scores : The number of standard deviations from the mean is also
called the "Standard Score", "sigma" or "z-score".
Example: In that same school one of your friends is 195 cm tall
You can see on the bell curve that 195 cm is 3 standard deviations from the mean of 138,
so: Your friend's height has a "z-score" of 3.0
It is also possible to calculate how many standard deviations 195 is from the mean How far
is 195 from the mean? It is 195 - 138 = 57 cm from the mean
How many standard deviations is that? The standard deviation is 18.5 cm, so:
57 / 18.5 cm = 3.08 standard deviations
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Example: A survey of daily travel time had these results (in minutes):
26, 33, 65, 28, 34, 55, 25, 44, 50, 36, 26, 37, 43, 62, 35, 38, 45, 32, 28, 34
Convert the values to z-scores ("standard scores").
To convert 26:
Example: A professor is marking a test and below are the scores of the
students
20, 15, 26, 32, 18, 28, 35, 14, 26, 22, 17
Most students didn't even get 30 out of 60, and most will fail.
The test must have been really hard, so the Prof decides to Standardize all
the scores and only fail people more than 1 standard deviation below the
mean.
The Mean is 23, and the Standard Deviation is 6.6, and these are the
Standard Scores:
-0.45, -1.21, 0.45, 1.36, -0.76, 0.76, 1.82, -1.36, 0.45, -0.15, -0.91
Now only 2 students will fail (the ones lower than −1 standard deviation)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Examples:
1. The mean weight of 500 college students is 70 kg and the standard deviation is 3 kg.
Assuming that the weight is normally distributed, determine how many students weigh:
a). Between 60 kg and 75 kg.
b). More than 90 kg.
c). 64 kg or less
2. Most graduate schools of business require applicants for admission to take the Graduate
management Admission Council’s GMAT examination. Scores on the GMAT are roughly
normally distributed with a mean of 527 and a standard deviation of 112.
What is the probability of an individual scoring above 500 on the GMAT?
How high must an individual score on the GMAT in order to score in the highest 5%
3. The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth approximates a normal
distribution with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days.
What proportion of all pregnancies will last between 240 and 270 days (roughly between 8
and 9 months)?
What length of time marks the shortest 70% of all pregnancies?
Note:
**** The standard normal distribution is very useful for determining
probabilities for any normally distributed random variable. ****
SAMPLING METHODS AND CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM
Introduction to Sampling
Reasons to sample
• Sampling Methods
Sampling Error
The difference between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter.
Samples are used to estimate population characteristics. For example, the mean of a
sample is used to estimate the population mean. However, since the sample is a part or
portion of the population, it is unlikely that the sample mean would be exactly equal to the
population mean. Similarly, it is unlikely that the sample standard deviation would be
exactly equal to the population standard deviation. We can therefore expect a difference
between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter. This difference is
called sampling error
1. The mean of the sample means is exactly equal to the population mean.
2. The dispersion of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is narrower than the
population distribution.
3. The sampling distribution of the sample mean tends to become bell-shaped and to
approximate the normal probability distribution.
Note: The central limit theorem indicates that, regardless of the shape of the population
distribution, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will move toward the normal
probability distribution. The larger the number of observations sampled or selected, the
stronger the convergence
If the standard deviation in the population is σ, the standard deviation of the sample means
is σ∕√n where n is the number of observations in each sample. We refer to σ∕√n as the
standard error of the mean. Its longer name is actually the standard deviation of the
sampling distribution of the sample mean.
Sampling Methods and Central Limit Theorem
Thus
1. The mean of the distribution of sample means will be exactly equal to the population
mean if we are able to select all possible samples of the same size from a given
population. That is: μ = μx
Even if we do not select all samples, we can expect the mean of the distribution of
sample means to be close to the population mean.
2. There will be less dispersion in the sampling distribution of the sample mean than in the
population. If the standard deviation of the population is σ, the standard deviation of
the distribution of sample means is σ∕√n. Note that when we increase the size of the
sample, the standard error of the mean decreases
1. When the samples are taken from populations known to follow the normal distribution.
In this case, the size of the sample is not a factor.
2. When the shape of the population distribution is not known, sample size is important. In
general, the sampling distribution will be normally distributed as the sample size
approaches infinity. In practice, a sampling distribution will be close to a normal
distribution with samples of at least 30 observations.
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
So far we discussed about sampling based on information about the population,
such as the mean, the standard deviation, or the shape of the population, is
known.
A point estimate, however, tells only part of the story. While we expect the
point estimate to be close to the population parameter, we would like to
measure how close it really is. A confidence interval serves this purpose.
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
To compute a confidence interval for a population mean, we will consider two situations:
• We use sample data to estimate μ with x and the population standard deviation (σ) is
known.
• We use sample data to estimate μ with x and the population standard deviation is
unknown. In this case, we substitute the sample standard deviation (s) for the population
standard deviation (σ).
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
Problems
1. Hypothesis
2. Null and Alternative Hypothesis
3. Level of significance
4. Confidence Intervals
5. One-tailed and Two-tailed test
6. Degrees of Freedom
7. Types of errors – Type1 and Type 2 errors
8. Parametric and non-parametric tests
9. Procedure for testing hypothesis
▪ Introduction to ANOVA
▪ Application of ANOVA
▪ Problems on ANOVA
Q&A
THANK YOU