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QT 1 Post Mid Topics Oct 2020

Here are the probabilities calculated from the contingency table: a) P(Driver is a cell phone user) = 305/755 = 0.4053 b) P(Driver had no violation in the last year) = 685/755 = 0.9059 c) P(Driver had no violation in the last year | Driver is a cell phone user) = 280/305 = 0.9175

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
52 views

QT 1 Post Mid Topics Oct 2020

Here are the probabilities calculated from the contingency table: a) P(Driver is a cell phone user) = 305/755 = 0.4053 b) P(Driver had no violation in the last year) = 685/755 = 0.9059 c) P(Driver had no violation in the last year | Driver is a cell phone user) = 280/305 = 0.9175

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matharajesh
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Post Mid

17th September 2020 onwards


What is your understanding on Probability
(Express your thoughts in 2-3 words

Visit the following link

https://www.menti.com/axzzeieuud

Or

you can use the digit code 28 78 36 2 on


menti.com to express your views
1. Introduction to Probability
2. Basic Probability concepts
3. Assign probabilities using various
approaches
4. Calculating probabilities using rules
of addition and multiplication
5. Computing probabilities using
contingency tables
6. Bayes Theorem
Descriptive statistics is concerned with summarizing data collected
from past events.
We now turn to the second facet of statistics, namely, computing
the chance that something will occur in the future.
This facet of statistics is called statistical inference or inferential
statistics.
Examples: Customers purchases or Quality Assurance
Because there is uncertainty in decision making, it is important that
all the known risks involved be scientifically evaluated

Helpful in this process is probability, the science of uncertainty


Def: Probability : Probability is a numerical value that describes the
chance of happening of something.

• Probability is frequently expressed as a decimal, such as .70, .27,


or .50, or
• A percent such as 70%, 27% or 50% or
• It also may be reported as a fraction such as 7/10, 27/100, or 1/2.

It can assume any number from 0 to 1, inclusive


Basic Probability Concepts
Experiment, Outcome and Event

EXPERIMENT: A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only


one of several possible results.

Examples:

EVENT/EVENTS : A result in an experiment or Set of all possible


results in an experiment

OUTCOME : A particular result of an experiment.


Outcome in coin experiment or dice experiment or pack of cards
experiment
Approaches to Probability Conti….
Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes of
an experiment are equally likely.

Example : Probability of occurrence of even number on rolling a dice

Empirical or relative frequency is the second type of objective


probability. It is based on the number of times an event occurs as a
proportion of a known number of trials.

Example

On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia exploded. This was the second
disaster in 113 space missions for NASA. On the basis of this information, what
is the probability that a future mission is successfully completed?
Approaches to Probability Conti….
SUBJECTIVE CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY : The likelihood (probability) of a
particular event happening that is assigned by an individual based on
whatever information is available
A probability statement always assigns a likelihood to an event that
has not yet occurred

Identify the Approach

1. What is the probability you will save one million dollars by the time you
retire? Which approach to probability did you use to answer this question?
2. One card will be randomly selected from a standard 52-card deck. What is
the probability the card will be a queen? Which approach to probability did
you use to answer this question?
3. The Center for Child Care reports on 539 children and the marital status of
their parents. There are 333 married, 182 divorced, and 24 widowed
parents. What is the probability a particular child chosen at random will
have a parent who is divorced? Which approach did you use?
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

SROA Special • When outcomes are


mutually exclusive.
Rule of
The probability of one or
the other event occurring
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
is the sum of their
probabilities
Addition • P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)

GROA General • When outcomes are not


The probability of one or
the other event occurring Rule of mutually exclusive.
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Addition
is the sum of their
probabilities less joint • P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) – P(AnB)
events

P(A n B) → Joint Probability

Mutually Exclusive and Collective Exhaustive Events


Finished products, dice and coin
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

Example 1 :

A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, nuts and other
vegetables. Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because
of the variation in the size of the beans and other vegetables, a
package might be underweight or overweight. A check of 4,000
packages filled in the past month revealed

Underweight → 100
Satisfactory → 3600 and
Overweight → 300

a) What is the probability of occurrence of underweight, satisfactory


or overweight bag
b) What is the probability that a particular package will be either
underweight or overweight?
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

Example 1 : Conti….

a)

b) P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) = .025 + .075 = .10

Note that the events are mutually exclusive and they are also
collectively exhaustive
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

Example:

A Tourist company selected a sample of 200 tourists who visited the country during the
year. The survey revealed that 120 tourists went to Taj Mahal and 100 went to Red Fort.
What is the probability that a person selected visited either Taj Mahal or Red Fort. If the
special rule of addition is used, the probability of selecting a tourist who went to Taj
Mahal is .60, found by 120/200. Similarly, the probability of a tourist going to Red Fort is
.50
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

General Rule of Addition: Event which are not mutually exclusive

The sum of these probabilities is 1.10.

Example: A Tourist company selected a sample of 200 tourists who visited the country
during the year. The survey revealed that 120 tourists went to Taj Mahal and 100 went to
Red Fort. What is the probability that a person selected visited either Taj Mahal or Red
Fort. If the special rule of addition is used, the probability of selecting a tourist who
went to Taj Mahal is .60, found by 120/200. Similarly, the probability of a tourist going to
Red Fort is .50. The sum of these probabilities is 1.10.

We know, however, that this probability cannot be greater than 1. The explanation is that
many tourists visited both attractions and are being counted twice! A check of the survey
responses revealed that 60 out of 200 sampled did, in fact, visit both attractions.

P(Taj Mahal or Red Fort ) = P(Taj Mahal) + P(Red Fort) − P(both Taj Mahal and Red Fort)
= .60 + .50 − .30 = .80
Note: When two events both occur, the probability is called a joint
probability

Solve:
What is the probability that a card chosen at random from a standard deck of
cards will be either a king or a heart?
Rules of Addition for computing Probabilities

Solution:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B)


= 4/52 + 13/52 − 1/52
= 16/52, or .3077
Rules of Multiplication for computing Probabilities

• When events are


SROM Special Rule independent.
of • P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
Multiplication

GROM General Rule • When events are


of dependent.
• P(A and B) = P(A) P(B | A)
Multiplication

P(B/A) is the Conditional Probability


Independent and Dependent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not alter the
probability of the occurrence of the other event.
One way to think about independence is to assume that events A and B occur
at different times.
Example: What is the probability of drawing 2 kings from a pack of cards.
Rules of Multiplication for computing Probabilities
Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probability

If two events A and B are considered,

Marginal Probability → : P (A) and P (B)

Joint Probability------- → : P ( A and B )

Conditional Probability → : P (A / B) or P (B/A)

P( A and B) = P(A) . P (B) If the events are independent


P( A and B) = P(A) . P (B/A) or
P( A and B) / P(A) = P (B/A) ----→ If the events are dependent
Computing Probabilities using Contingency Tables

Def: A table used to classify sample observations according to


two or more identifiable categories or classes

A contingency table is a cross-tabulation that simultaneously


summarizes two variables of interest and their relationship

Example : Computing Probabilities from Contingency Tables


Computing Probabilities using Contingency Tables

1. Consider the following study:


Speeding violations and drivers who use cell phones produced the
following fictional data:
Speeding Violation No Speeding violation in Total
in the last year the last year
uses cell phone
while driving 25 280 305
Does not use cell
phone while driving
45 405 450
Total 70 685 755

Note: The total number of people in the sample is 755. The row totals are 305 and 450.
The column totals are 70 and 685. Notice that 305 + 450 = 755 and 70 + 685 = 755.

Calculate the following probabilities using the table.


a. Find P(Driver is a cell phone user).
b. Find P(Driver had no violation in the last year).
c. Find P(Driver had no violation in the last year and was a cell phone user).
d. Find P(Driver is a cell phone user or driver had no violation in the last year).
e. Find P(Driver is a cell phone user Given the driver had a violation in the last year).
f. Find P(Driver had no violation last year Given the driver was not a cell phone user)
Computing Probabilities using Contingency Tables

The following is the data of males and females who each have a given eye
color.

1. What is the Probability that a randomly selected person will


have Black eyes?
2. What is the Probability that a randomly selected Female will
have Black eyes?
3. What is the Probability that a randomly selected person will
have Blue eyes OR will be Male?
4. What is the probability of selecting a Female AND a Gray eye
person?
Computing Probabilities using Contingency Tables

The following is the data of males and females who each have a given eye
color.

1. What is the Probability that a randomly selected person will


have Black eyes? 45/167
2. What is the Probability that a randomly selected Female will
have Black eyes? 20/85
3. What is the Probability that a randomly selected person will
have Blue eyes OR will be Male? 22/167+82/167 – 12/167
4. What is the probability of selecting a Female AND a Gray eye
person? P(Female AND Gray eyes) = P(Female | Gray eyes) *
P(Gray eyes) = 10/20 * 20/167 = .5 * .12 = .06 or about 6%.
Bayes Theorem

Is given as P(A/B) = [ P (A) . P (B/A) ] /P(B)

P (A and B ) = P (A) . P (B/A) (For Dependent Events) → 1


P (A and B ) = P (B) . P (A/B) →2

Since they are dependent, conditional probability

Equating 1 and 2

P (A) . P (B/A) = P (B) . P (A/B) or


P(A /B) = [P (A) . P (B/A) ] / P(B) is the Bayes Theorem
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

Application:
Conditional Probability : P(A/B)
P ( A and B) = P (A) . P (B/A)
P (B/A) = P (A and B) / P (A) or P (A/B) = P (A and B) / P (B)

1. A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed both tests
and 42% of the class passed the first test. What percent of those who
passed the first test also passed the second test (60)
2. A jar contains black and white marbles. Two marbles are chosen without
replacement. The probability of selecting a black marble and then a white
marble is 0.34, and the probability of selecting a black marble on the first
draw is 0.47. What is the probability of selecting a white marble on the
second draw, given that the first marble drawn was black? (72)
3. The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since
there are 5 school days in a week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2.
What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday?
(15)
4. At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology
and Spanish is 0.087. The probability that a student takes Technology is
0.68. What is the probability that a student takes Spanish given that the
student is taking Technology? (13)
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem

Application:

Solve:
1. Suppose that we have two identical boxes: box 1 and box 2. Box 1
contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Box 2 contains 2 red balls and 4 blue
balls. A box is selected at random and exactly one ball is drawn from the
box. (0.5) [Law of total probability]
a).What is the probability that a randomly picked up ball is blue?
b). Given that the selected ball is blue, what’s the probability that it came
from box 2? (0.6)

2. A card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards and discarded (i.e. not
replaced). A second card is drawn from the remaining deck of 51 cards.
a). What is the probability that the second card is a spade?
b). Given that the second card was a spade, what is the probability that
the first card was also a spade (0.25)
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem
Application:
1. An insurance company divides its policy holders into three categories: low
risk, moderate risk, and high risk. The low-risk policy holders account for
60% of the total number of people insured by the company. The moderate-
risk policy holders account for 30%, and the high-risk policy holders
account for 10%. The probabilities that a low-risk, moderate-risk, and
high-risk policy holder will file a claim within a given year are respectively
.01, .10, and .50. Given that a policy holder files a claim this year, what is
the probability that the person is a high-risk policy holder? (0.58)

2. Two production lines produce the same part. Line 1 produces 1,000 parts
per week of which 100 are defective. Line 2 produces 2,000 parts per
week of which 150 are defective. If you choose a part randomly from the
stock what is the probability it is defective? If it is defective what is the
probability it was produced by line 1? (0.57)

3. X is getting married tomorrow, at an outdoor ceremony in the desert. In


recent years, it has rained only 5 days each year. Unfortunately, the
weatherman has predicted rain for tomorrow. When it actually rains, the
weatherman correctly forecasts rain 90% of the time. When it doesn't rain,
he incorrectly forecasts rain 10% of the time. What is the probability that
it will rain on the day of X’s wedding? (0.11)
Conditional Probability & Bayes Theorem
Application:
Solution: The sample space is defined by two mutually-exclusive events - it rains or it
does not rain. Additionally, a third event occurs when the weatherman predicts rain.
Notation for these events appears below.
Event A . It rains on X's wedding.
Event A . It does not rain on
P( B | A ) = 0.1 [When it does not rain, the weatherman predicts rain 10% of the time.]
We want to know P( A | B ), the probability it will rain on the day of X's wedding, given a
forecast for rain by the weatherman. The answer
can be determined from Bayes' theorem, as shown below.
P( A | B ) =
P( A ) P( B | A )
P( A ) P( B | A ) + P( A ) P( B | A )
P( A | B ) =
(0.014)(0.9)
[ (0.014)(0.9) + (0.986)(0.1) ]
P( A | B ) = 0.111
Note the somewhat unintuitive result. Even when the weatherman predicts rain, it rains
only about 11% of the time. Despite the weatherman's
gloomy prediction, there is a good chance that X will not get rained on at her wedding.
X's wedding.
Event B. The weatherman predicts rain.
In terms of probabilities, we know the following:
P( A ) = 5/365 =0.0136985 [It rains 5 days out of the year.]
P( A ) = 360/365 = 0.9863014 [It does not rain 360 days out of the year.]
P( B | A ) = 0.9 [When it rains, the weatherman predicts rain 90% of the time.]
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Def: Probability Distribution:

A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the probability


associated with each outcome.

Probability Distribution – Disc Example Probability Distribution – Tossing of to Coins

Probabilities of Outcome
Event (X) P(X) Events (X) P (x)
1 P(1) = 1/6 0.16666
T, T 0 0.25
2 P(2)= 1/6 0.16666
3 P(3)=1/6 0.16666 H ,T 1 0.25
4 P(4) =1/6 0.16666 T, H 1 0.25
5 P(5) =1/6 0.16666 H, H 2 0.25
6 P(6) =1/6 0.16666
1
Total 0.99996
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

▪ Random Variable
▪ Discrete and Continuous Random Variables
▪ Mean, Variance and Standard deviation of discrete probability
distribution
Binominal Distribution
Characteristics of Binominal Distribution

There must be only two possible outcomes in an experimental trail


The events must be mutually exclusive
Probability of success is same for each event
Each of the events are independent in the given trail
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Example:
Your basketball team is playing a series of 5 games against your opponent. The
winner is those who wins more games (out of 5).
Let us assume that your team is much more skilled and has 75% chances of
winning. It means there is a 25% chance of losing.
What is the probability of your team gets 3 wins?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example:
2. Let’s say that 80% of all business startups in the IT industry report that they
generate a profit in their first year. If a sample of 10 new IT business startups
is selected, find the probability that exactly seven will generate a profit in
their first year. (0.2013)

3. A box of candies has many different colors in it. There is a 15%


chance of getting a pink candy. What is the probability that exactly 4
candies in a box are pink out of 10?
4. Sales and Sales Performance
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Poisson Distribution
The Poisson probability distribution describes the number of times some event
occurs during a specified interval. Examples of an interval may be time,
distance, area, or volume.

Characteristics of Poisson Distribution

Note: This distribution is a limiting form of the binomial distribution when the
probability of a success is very small and n is large.
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Poisson Distribution
Examples:

1. Suppose a fast food restaurant can expect two customers every 3 minutes,
on average. What is the probability that four or fewer customers will
enter the restaurant in a 9 minute period?

2. Let's say you are a cashier at Wal-Mart. It is 4:30pm and your shift ends at
5:00pm. The store policy is to close your checkout line 15 minutes before
your shift ends (in this case 4:45) so that you can finish checking-out the
customers already in your line and leave on-time.
By examining overhead cameras, store data indicates that between
4:30pm and 4:45pm each weekday, an average of 10 customers enter any
given checkout line.
What is the probability that exactly 7 customers enter your line between
4:30 and 4:45? What is the probability that more than 10 people arrive?
(Which means you will probably be on shift later than 5:00pm)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is a continuous distribution

Properties of Normal Distribution Curve

• mean = median = mode


• symmetry about the center
• 50% of values less than the mean and 50% greater than the mean

Mean and Standard Deviation of Normal Distribution


Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution with
Mean 0 and
SD 1
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the numbers are in the
given data

68% of the values are within 1 standard deviation


from the mean

95% of the values are within 2 standard deviations


from the mean

99.7% of the values are within 3 standard deviations


from the mean
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Example 1: 95% of the students in a school are between 101 cm and 175 cm
Assuming this data is normally distributed can you calculate the mean and
standard deviation?

Mean = 101+175/2 = 138 cm

95% is 2 standard deviations either side of the mean (a total of 4 standard


deviations) so:
1 SD = 74/4 = 18.5 cm

101 119.5 138 156.5 175

Standard Scores : The number of standard deviations from the mean is also
called the "Standard Score", "sigma" or "z-score".
Example: In that same school one of your friends is 195 cm tall
You can see on the bell curve that 195 cm is 3 standard deviations from the mean of 138,
so: Your friend's height has a "z-score" of 3.0
It is also possible to calculate how many standard deviations 195 is from the mean How far
is 195 from the mean? It is 195 - 138 = 57 cm from the mean
How many standard deviations is that? The standard deviation is 18.5 cm, so:
57 / 18.5 cm = 3.08 standard deviations
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Example: A survey of daily travel time had these results (in minutes):

26, 33, 65, 28, 34, 55, 25, 44, 50, 36, 26, 37, 43, 62, 35, 38, 45, 32, 28, 34
Convert the values to z-scores ("standard scores").

To convert 26:

first subtract the mean: 26 − 38.8 = −12.8,


then divide by the Standard Deviation: −12.8/11.4 = −1.12
So 26 is −1.12 Standard Deviations from the Mean

Here are the first three conversions

Original Value Calculation Standard Score


(z-score)
26 (26-38.8) / 11.4 = −1.12
33 (33-38.8) / 11.4 = −0.51
65 (65-38.8) / 11.4 = +2.30 ... ... ...
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution
Why Standardize or calculate the Z-Scores

Example: A professor is marking a test and below are the scores of the
students

Here are the students' results (out of 60 points):

20, 15, 26, 32, 18, 28, 35, 14, 26, 22, 17

Most students didn't even get 30 out of 60, and most will fail.

The test must have been really hard, so the Prof decides to Standardize all
the scores and only fail people more than 1 standard deviation below the
mean.

The Mean is 23, and the Standard Deviation is 6.6, and these are the
Standard Scores:

-0.45, -1.21, 0.45, 1.36, -0.76, 0.76, 1.82, -1.36, 0.45, -0.15, -0.91
Now only 2 students will fail (the ones lower than −1 standard deviation)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION – Normal Distribution

Examples:
1. The mean weight of 500 college students is 70 kg and the standard deviation is 3 kg.
Assuming that the weight is normally distributed, determine how many students weigh:
a). Between 60 kg and 75 kg.
b). More than 90 kg.
c). 64 kg or less
2. Most graduate schools of business require applicants for admission to take the Graduate
management Admission Council’s GMAT examination. Scores on the GMAT are roughly
normally distributed with a mean of 527 and a standard deviation of 112.
What is the probability of an individual scoring above 500 on the GMAT?
How high must an individual score on the GMAT in order to score in the highest 5%
3. The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth approximates a normal
distribution with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days.
What proportion of all pregnancies will last between 240 and 270 days (roughly between 8
and 9 months)?
What length of time marks the shortest 70% of all pregnancies?
Note:
**** The standard normal distribution is very useful for determining
probabilities for any normally distributed random variable. ****
SAMPLING METHODS AND CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

Introduction to Sampling

Reasons to sample

• To contact the whole population would be time-consuming


• The cost of studying all the items in a population may be prohibitive
• The physical impossibility of checking all items in the population
• The destructive nature of some tests
• The sample results are adequate

• Sampling Methods

Simple Systematic Stratified


Cluster
Random Random Random
Sampling
Sampling Sampling Sampling
Sampling Methods and Central Limit Theorem

Sampling Error

The difference between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter.

Samples are used to estimate population characteristics. For example, the mean of a
sample is used to estimate the population mean. However, since the sample is a part or
portion of the population, it is unlikely that the sample mean would be exactly equal to the
population mean. Similarly, it is unlikely that the sample standard deviation would be
exactly equal to the population standard deviation. We can therefore expect a difference
between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter. This difference is
called sampling error

Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean

Example: Data of Employee Wages


Sampling Methods and Central Limit Theorem
Sample means of all possible samples of 2 employees

Sampling Distribution of Sample mean for n = 2


Sampling Methods and Central Limit Theorem
The relationships between the population distribution and the sampling
distribution of the sample mean:

1. The mean of the sample means is exactly equal to the population mean.
2. The dispersion of the sampling distribution of the sample mean is narrower than the
population distribution.
3. The sampling distribution of the sample mean tends to become bell-shaped and to
approximate the normal probability distribution.

CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

Note: The central limit theorem indicates that, regardless of the shape of the population
distribution, the sampling distribution of the sample mean will move toward the normal
probability distribution. The larger the number of observations sampled or selected, the
stronger the convergence

Standard Error of the Sampling Distribution

If the standard deviation in the population is σ, the standard deviation of the sample means
is σ∕√n where n is the number of observations in each sample. We refer to σ∕√n as the
standard error of the mean. Its longer name is actually the standard deviation of the
sampling distribution of the sample mean.
Sampling Methods and Central Limit Theorem
Thus

1. The mean of the distribution of sample means will be exactly equal to the population
mean if we are able to select all possible samples of the same size from a given
population. That is: μ = μx
Even if we do not select all samples, we can expect the mean of the distribution of
sample means to be close to the population mean.

2. There will be less dispersion in the sampling distribution of the sample mean than in the
population. If the standard deviation of the population is σ, the standard deviation of
the distribution of sample means is σ∕√n. Note that when we increase the size of the
sample, the standard error of the mean decreases

The sampling distribution will be normally distributed under two conditions:

1. When the samples are taken from populations known to follow the normal distribution.
In this case, the size of the sample is not a factor.
2. When the shape of the population distribution is not known, sample size is important. In
general, the sampling distribution will be normally distributed as the sample size
approaches infinity. In practice, a sampling distribution will be close to a normal
distribution with samples of at least 30 observations.
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
So far we discussed about sampling based on information about the population,
such as the mean, the standard deviation, or the shape of the population, is
known.

In most business situations, such information is not available. In fact, one


purpose of sampling is to estimate some of these values. For example, you
select a sample from a population and use the mean of the sample to estimate
the mean of the population

Point Estimation and Confidence Interval

A point estimate, however, tells only part of the story. While we expect the
point estimate to be close to the population parameter, we would like to
measure how close it really is. A confidence interval serves this purpose.
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
To compute a confidence interval for a population mean, we will consider two situations:

• We use sample data to estimate μ with x and the population standard deviation (σ) is
known.
• We use sample data to estimate μ with x and the population standard deviation is
unknown. In this case, we substitute the sample standard deviation (s) for the population
standard deviation (σ).
ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
Problems

1.A sample of 49 observations is taken from a normal population with a standard


deviation of 10. The sample mean is 55.
a). Determine the point estimate for the data and
b). Determine the 99% confidence interval for the population mean.
2. A sample of 81 observations is taken from a normal population with a standard deviation
of 5. The sample mean is 40. Determine the 95% confidence interval for the population
mean.
3. A sample of 250 observations is selected from a normal population with a population
standard deviation of 25. The sample mean is 20.
a. Determine the standard error of the mean.
b. Explain why we can use formula to determine the 95% confidence interval.
c. Determine the 95% confidence interval for the population mean.
TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS (TOH)
Basis terms and concepts in TOH

1. Hypothesis
2. Null and Alternative Hypothesis
3. Level of significance
4. Confidence Intervals
5. One-tailed and Two-tailed test
6. Degrees of Freedom
7. Types of errors – Type1 and Type 2 errors
8. Parametric and non-parametric tests
9. Procedure for testing hypothesis

Problems on Z, t, F and Chi-square tests


ANOVA (ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE)

▪ Introduction to ANOVA
▪ Application of ANOVA
▪ Problems on ANOVA
Q&A

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