CHAPTER 2

TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
AND FORECASTING
CONTENTS
1. Basic Elements of Transportation Planning

2. Forecast of Future Travel Demand:

- Trip Generation
- Trip Distribution
- Model Choice

- Trip Assignment

3. Transportation System Management

Lesson Learning Outcomes

At the end of this chapter, students should be able to:

1. Forecast future trip generated, the distribution, mode

choice and assignment 


2. Describe potential transportation system management 


 TOPIC 2.1
BASIC ELEMENTS OF
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

• Transportation planning is a process that intents to furnish

unbiased information about the effects that the proposed
transportation project will have on the community and its
expected users.

• Factors that may justify a transportation project:

- improvements in traffic flow & safety
- energy consumption
- travel time
- economic growth
- accessibility
cont.

• The transportation planning process comprises 7 basic elements. They

are interrelated and not necessarily carried out sequentially. The
elements of the process are:

1. Situation definition
2. Problem definition
3. Search for solutions
4. Analysis of performance
5. Evaluation of alternatives
6. Choice of project
7. Specification and construction
Transportation Planning Process of a New Bridge (pg.585)
Transportation Planning Process: Elements

Elements Description

Preliminary studies to understand the situation that

Situation Definition
caused the need for transportation improvement.
To describe the problem in terms of objectives &
translate objectives into criteria that can be
quantified.
Problem Definition
Objectives: statements of purpose, etc. Reduce
traffic congestion
Criteria: measures of effectiveness, etc. Travel time
Brainstorming stage, many options (variety of
Search for Solutions ideas, designs, locations, system configurations)
may be proposed for further testing and
evaluation.
Transportation Planning Process: Elements (cont.)

Elements Description
To estimate how each proposed alternatives would
Analysis of Performance
perform under present and future conditions.
To determined how well each alternative will
Evaluation of achieve the objectives as defined by the criteria
Alternatives
(Including cost-benefit analysis)
Decision to proceed with one of the alternatives.
Choice of Project Project selection after considering all factors
involved.
Produced detailed design (each of the components
Specification & of the facility is specified: physical location,
Construction geometric dimensions, structural configuration) →
contractors to estimate cost → built.
Urban Transportation Planning

• Urban transportation planning involves the evaluation and selection

of highway or transit facilities to serve present and future land
uses.

• For example, the construction of a new shopping center/airport/

convention centre will require additional transportation services.

• Also, new residential development, office space, industrial parks

will generate additional traffic - require the creation/expansion of
roads & transit services.

• The process must also consider other proposed developments and

improvements that will occur within the planning period.
cont.

• Urban transportation planning is concerned with 2 separate

time horizons:

• Short-term projects (one to four years period)

– to provide better management of existing facilities by
making them as efficient as possible
– traffic signal timing to improve flow, car pooling to reduce
congestion, transit improvements

• Long-term projects (>20 years) – adding new highway

elements, additional bus lines or freeway lanes, rapid transit
systems or access roads to airports or malls.
cont.
Establish goals – identify deficiencies of existing system & what is the desired
improvement.

1. Population-Economic activity:

- Age, sex & composition of the family

- Employment statistics
- Income
- Vehicle ownership
- Home interview surveys
The population data helps in the estimation of future trip-making behaviours.

2. Land-use:
• Travel characteristics are closely related to land-use pattern. Classified into land-use
activity such as:
i. Residential
ii. Industrial
iii. Commercial
iv. Recreational, etc.
cont.

3. Transportation – facilities & usage

• To identify the deficiencies in the present system & the extent to
which they need to be improved.
• Consists of;
i. Inventory of streets forming transportation network
ii. Traffic volume, composition, peak & off-peak
iii. Studies on travel time by diff modes
iv. Inventory of rail transportation facilities – capacity, schedule,
station, etc.
v. Parking inventory – parking demand, charging implementation
vi. Inventory of public transportation – buses route, fare, terminals,
capacity, schedules, reliability, etc.
vii. Accident data – hazard location – improve the situation
cont.

Travel patterns & surveys

•Identify:
i. Where & when trips begin / end
ii. Trip purpose
iii. Mode of travel
iv. Social & economic characteristics of trip maker

4 general classifications of travel surveys:

i. Household travel surveys → home interview, telephone, mail
surveys
ii. Roadside surveys
iii. Model surveys
iv. Goods movement surveys
 TOPIC 2.2
FORECAST OF FUTURE
TRAVEL DEMAND
Introduction

• Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or

vehicles per unit time that can be expected to travel on a
given segment of a transportation system under a set of given
land-use, socioeconomic and environmental conditions.

• Forecasts of travel demand are used to establish the vehicular

volume on future modified transportation system alternatives

• The methods used in forecasting demand will depend on

1. availability of data
2. specific constraints: availability of funds & project schedules
Factors Influencing Travel Demand

THREE (3) Factors:

1. The location & intensity of land use

2. The socioeconomic characteristics of people living in

the area

3. the extent, cost, & quality of available transportation

services
Travel Forecasting Process

The process predicts what will happen to the

transportation system in the future under hypothetical
conditions.

The land use, population and economic activity are

estimated for the forecast year
cont.

• Urban transportation forecasting process is carried out to analyze

the performance of various alternatives. There are four basic
elements:

i. Data collection / inventories

ii. Analysis of existing conditions and calibration of forecasting
techniques
iii. Forecast of future travel demand
iv. Analysis of the results
cont.

• Prior to data collection, it is necessary to delineate the study area

boundaries and further subdivide the area into traffic zones
(TAZ).
• Criteria to select these zones:
• Socioeconomic characteristics should be homogeneous.
• Intrazonal trips should be minimized.
• Physical, political and historical boundaries should be utilized
where possible.
• Zones should not be created within other zones.
• The zone system should generate and attract approximately
equal trips, households, population or area.
• Zones should use census tract boundaries where possible.
cont.

Steps to be taken before 4-step model

1. Population & economic analysis: determines the

magnitude & extent of activity in the urban area

2. Land use analysis: determines where the activities

will be located
Four Step Process
The 4-STEP MODEL
Trip Generation (the number of trips to be
made)

Trip Distribution (where those trips go)

Modal Split (how the trips will be divided

among the available modes of travel)

Trip Assignment (predicting the route trips

will take)
How many trips will people
make?

Where will jobs & people

locate?

How will people travel?

What routes will people take?

i = origin
j = destination

Source: http://www.et.byu.edu/~msaito/CE565MS/
2.2.1 Trip Generation
The decision to travel for a given purpose is called trip
generation.

The process of determining the number of trips that will

begin or end in each traffic analysis zone within a study
area.

The trips are referred to as trip ends (determine without

regard to destination).

Each trip has two ends (described in terms of trip

purpose): trips are either produced by a traffic zone or
attracted to a traffic zone.
cont.
• A Trip is a one-way person / vehicular movement having a
single purpose and mode of travel between appoint of origin
and destination.

Trip Production

• Household Size, Household Structure, Income, Car Ownership,

Residential Density, Accessibility

Trip Attractions

• Land-use and Employment by Category (e.g. Industrial,

Commercial, Services), Accessibility
cont.
Example: a home to work trip would be considered to have a
trip end produced in the home zone & attracted to the work
zone

Trip generation analysis has two functions:

1. to develop a relationship between trip end production or
attraction and land use
2. to use the relationship to estimate the number of trips
generated at future (new set of land use conditions)

Common method:
• Cross classification
• Rates based on activity units
• Regression analysis
2.2.1.1 Cross-Classification analysis

• To determine the number of trips that begin or end at

the home (developed by FHWA).

• Home based trip generation is a useful value -

represent a significant proportion of all trips.

• The 1st step: develop a relationship between

socioeconomic measures & trip production.
cont.

• Two variables most commonly used: average income &

auto ownership. Other variables: household size

• The relationships are developed based on income data

and results of O-D surveys.

• Ex. 12.1& 12.2 (pp. 628)

• Analysis can be used to develop relevant trip rate if

only good data are available.
2.2.1.2 Multiple regression

Multiple linear regression technique is used to formulate

equations to predict the number of trips generated.

Given the high correlations that typically exist between trip rates
and socio-economic variables.

The general form of equation:

Y = a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + ……… + anxn
Where,
Y = Dependent variables (Trip)
x1, x2 = Independent variables relating to Y (Ex.: land use, socio -
economic factors, etc.)
a1, a2 = Coefficients of the respective independent variables
cont.

In developing regression equations, it is assumed that:

1. All independent variables are independent of each other.

2. All independent variables are normally distributed &
continuous (future growth same as predicted).

The quality of fit of regression line determined by multiple

linear regressions is indicated by the multiple correlation
coefficient (goodness of fit) represented by R2 value being
between 0 and 1.
Multiple regression: Example

A multiple regression analysis shows the following relationship for

the number of trips per household.

T = 0.82 + 1.3P + 2.1A

where T = number of trips per household per day

P = number of persons per household

A = number of autos per household

If a particular TAZ contains 250 households with an average of 4

persons and 2 autos for each household, determine the average
number of trips per day in that zone.
Multiple regression: SOLUTION

STEP 1. Calculate the number of trips per household

T = 0.82 + 1.3P + 2.1A

= 0.82 + 1.3(4) + 2.1(2) = 10.22 trips/household/day

STEP 2. Determine the number of trips in the entire

zone.

Total trips = 250 (10.22) = 2555 trips/day

2.2.1.3 Rates Based on Activity
Units

Productions = Trips generated at the household end

Attractions = Trips attracted to zones for purposes such

as work, shopping, visiting friends, & medical trips

Trip generation rates for attraction zones can be

determined from survey data or are tabulated in some
of the reference sources.
Rates Based on Activity Units:
Example
A commercial center in the downtown contains several
retail establishments and light industries. Employed at the
centre are 220 retail and 650 nonretail workers. Determine
the number of trips per day attracted to this zone.

Attractions Attractions per Attractions per Attractions per

per Nonretail Downtown Other Retail
Household Employee Retail Employee Employee

HBW - 1.7 1.7 1.7

HBO 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0

NHB 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0

Rates Based on Activity Units:
Solutions
Use the trip generation rates listed in Table:

HBW: (220 x 1.7) + (650 x 1.7) = 1479

HBO: (220 x 5.0) + (650 x 2.0) = 2400

NHB: (220 x 3.0) + (650 x 1.0) = 1310

Total: 5189 trips/day

*home-based work (HBW), home-based other (HBO), non home-based (NHB)
2.2.2 Trip Distribution

A process by which the trips generated in one

zone are allocated to other zones in the study
area.

Trips may be within the study area (internal -

internal, ex:Zone 1 - Zone 1) or between the
study area and areas outside the study area
(internal - external, ex:Zone 1 - Zone 2).
cont.
Methods:

1. Growth Factor Model

2. Gravity Model

Assumptions:

1. Number of trips decrease with COST between zones

2. Number of trips increase with zone “attractiveness”

e 4-Step Model: Trip Distribution
trip matrix
ip matrix
Attractions
Generations 1 2 3 … j … J ∑T
j
ij

1 T11 T12 T13 … T1j … T1J O1

2 T21 T22 T23 … T2j … T2J O2
3 T31 T32 T33 … T3j … T3J O3
: : : : : : :
i Ti1 Ti2 Ti3 … Tij … TiJ Oi
: : : : : : :
I TI1 TI2 TI3 … TIj … TIJ OI

∑T ij
D1 D2 D3 … Dj … DJ ∑∑
i j
Tij = T
i

Source: MIT
Growth Factor Models
Growth Factor Models assume that there is basic trip
matrix exist
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300
3 50 100 5 100
4 100 200 250 20

Usually obtained from a previous study or recent survey

data
TAZ = Traffic Analysis Zone
Growth Factor Models
The goal is then to estimate the matrix at some point in the
future
For example, what would the trip matrix look like in 10
years time?

TAZ 1 2 3 4 TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 5 50 100 200 1 ? ? ? ?
2 50 5 100 300 2 ? ? ? ?
3 50 100 5 100 3 ? ? ? ?
4 100 200 250 20 4 ? ? ? ?

Trip Matrix, t 
 Trip Matrix, T 


(2008) (2018)
Uniform Growth Factor
If we assume τ = 1.2 (growth rate), then…
TAZ 1 2 3 4
Trip Matrix, t 

1 5 50 100 200
2 50 5 100 300 (2008)
3 50 100 5 100
4 100 200 250 20
Tij = τ tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 6 60 120 240
Trip Matrix, T 

2 60 6 120 360
3 60 120 6 120 (2018)
4 120 240 300 24
2.2.2.1 GRAVITY MODEL:
Equation
& #
$ A j Fij K ij !
Tij = Pi $ !
∑ A j Fij K ij
$ j !
% "
Expressed as:

Tij = no. of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to

zone j
Pi = total no. of trips produced in zone i
Aj = no. of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which is an inverse functions of travel time
Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij
GRAVITY MODEL: EXAMPLE 1

The number of work trip in and attracted to three zones 1, 2, 3

are as under

Zone 1 2 3 Total

Pi 14 33 28 75

Aj 33 28 14 75

Pi = Trips Produced, Aj = Trips Attracted

Gravity Model

Friction factor

Zone 1 2 3

1 13 82 41

2 50 26 39

3 50 20 41
e Time: 00:59)

Modified equation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T11 = 14 x 33 x 13 = 1.82
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)

T12 = 14 x 28 x 82 = 9.74
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)

T13 = 14 x 14 x 41 = 2.44
(33x13) + (28x82) + (14x41)
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T21 = 33 x 33 x 50 = 18.62
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)

T22 = 33 x 28 x 26 = 8.22
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)

T23 = 33 x 14 x 39 = 6.16
(33x50) + (28x26) + (14x39)
1st iteration: CALCULATION

T31 = 28 x 33 x 50 = 16.59
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)

T32 = 28 x 28 x 20 = 5.63
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)

T33 = 28 x 14 x 41 = 5.77
(33x50) + (28x20) + (14x41)
e Time: 01:46)
1st iteration: Result

Singly constrained. The total trip productions match with the

predicted value, however the attractions do not equal with the
predicted attractions. Further iterations are necessary.
Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Time: 04:37)
2nd iteration: Formula

Doubly
constrained

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 2nd iteration: Adjusted attraction
r Slide Time: 06:09)

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
j for each of zonal pairs clear.

2nd iteration: Calculation

Slide Time: 09:13)

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
lide Time: 09:39)
2nd iteration: Calculation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
ide Time: 09:59)
2nd iteration: Calculation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
e Time: 10:28)
2nd iteration: Result

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
ired numbers, whereas here it is not so, we need to continue our iteration.

Slide Time: 12:22)

3rd Iteration: Adjusted attraction

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
de Time: 13:54)
3rd Iteration: calculation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
s our target.

3rd Iteration: calculation

r Slide Time: 14:17)

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
e Time: 14:36)
3rd Iteration: calculation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
lide Time: 14:44)
3rd Iteration: calculation

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Time: 15:02)
3rd Iteration: result

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
GRAVITY MODEL: EXAMPLE II

The number of productions and attractions has

been computed for each zone by methods
described in the section on trip generation, and the
average travel times between each zone have been
determined. Refer table 12.8 & 12.9. Determine the
number of zone to zone trips through two
iterations.
“Type a quote here”

–Johnny Appleseed
2nd iteration, Doubly
constrained:RESULT

Zone 1 2 3 Computed Given

P P
1 34 68 38 140 140

2 153 112 65 330 330

3 116 88 76 280 280

Computed 303 268 179 750 750

A
Given 300 270 180 750
A
2.2.2.2 FRATAR METHOD:
EQUATION
Tij = (tiGi) tijGj
tixGx
Tij = no. of trips estimated from zone i to zone j
ti = present trip generation in zone i
Gx = growth factor of zone x
tiGi = future trip generation in zone i
tix = no. of trips between zone i and other zones x
tij = present trip between zone i and zone j
Gj = growth factor of zone j
Example:
pg. 643
ZONE tij Gj ti Gi Σ(tixGx) Tij
AB 400 1.1 1.2 446
AC 100 1.4 600 1.2 710 142
AD 100 1.3 1.2 132

BA 400 1.2 1.1 411

BC 300 1.4 700 1.1 900 359
BD - - - -

CA 100 1.2 1.4 140

CB 300 1.1 700 1.4 840 385
CD 300 1.3 1.4 455

DA 100 1.2 1.3 116

DB - - 400 - 540 -
DC 300 1.4 1.3 404
Next Step: Average The Value
TAB = TAB + TBA = 446 + 411 = 428
2 2

TAC = TAC + TcA = 142 + 140 = 141

2 2

TAD = TAD + TDA = 132 + 116 = 124

2 2

TBC = TBC + TCB = 359 + 385 = 372

2 2

TCD = TCD + TDC = 455 + 404 = 430

2 2
Fratar Method: Quiz

A small study area consists of 4 zones: Zone 1,2,3 and 4. An origin-destination survey
indicates that the number of trips between each zone is as shown in the following table.
Distribute the trips for future conditions using the FRATAR MODEL until second
iteration.

Total Present Trip G in 5

Zone 1 2 3 4 Trip G Years

1 - 4 6 7 17 32
2 5 - 5 4 14 24
3 5 5 - 3 13 20
4 8 7 4 - 19 25
Total Present
Trip A 18 16 15 14
Trip A in 5
Years 26 25 25 25
2.2.3 Mode choice (Modal split)

determines the number/percentage of trips between

zones that are made by automobile and by transit.

the selection of mode depends on factors such as

traveler’s income, the availability of transit service/
auto ownership, & relative advantages (travel time,
cost, comfort, convenience and safety (refer next
slide)
Factors Influencing The Choice Of Mode

1. Characteristics of the trip maker :

(a) car availability and/or ownership

(b) possession of a driving license
(c) household structure (young couple, couple with children,
retired people etc.)
(d) income
(e) decisions made elsewhere, for example the need to use a
car at work, take children to school, etc
(f) residential density.
Cont.

2. Characteristics of the journey: Mode choice is strongly influenced by:

(a) The trip purpose; for example, the journey to work is normally easier to
undertake by public transport than other journeys because of its regularity
and the adjustment possible in the long run;
(b) Time of the day when the journey is undertaken.
(c) Late trips are more difficult to accommodate by public transport.

3. Characteristics of the transport facility: There are two types of factors:

quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative factors are:

(a) relative travel time: in-vehicle, waiting and walking times by each mode;
(b) relative monetary costs (fares, fuel and direct costs);
(c) availability and cost of parking
cont.

Qualitative factors which are less easy to measure are:

(a) comfort and convenience
(b) reliability and regularity
(c) protection, security

A good mode choice should include the most important

of these factors.
Types Of Mode Choice Models

1. Direct generation of transit trips

- by estimating either total person trips or auto driver trips

2. Use of trip end models

- determine the percentage of total person or auto trips that
will use transit
- estimation are made prior to the trip distribution phase based
on land-use or socioeconomic characteristic of the zone

3. Trip interchange modal split models

- system level of service variables are considered: relative
travel time, relative travel cost, economic status of the trip
maker, relative travel service, etc.
Logit Models

An alternative approach used in transportation

demand analysis: consider the relative utility of
each mode as a summation of each modal
attribute

the choice of a mode is expressed as a probability

distribution.
cont.

For example, assume that the utility of each mode is

Ux = Σ aiXi
Ux – utility function for mode x
Xi – attribute value (time, cost,and so forth)
ai – coefficient value for attributes i (negative since the values are disutilities

If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T) are being considered,
the probability of selecting the auto mode A can be written
as
p(A) = eUA
e UA + e UT
 Utility Function
A utility function takes the following form

um = Bm + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + ….. ar Xr + ε0

Where
um – utility function for mode m
Bm – mode specific parameter

Xr – variables measuring modal attributes such

as cost or time of travel
ar – coefficient associated with each attribute
ε0 – error term

Norman W. Garrick
Multinomial Logit Model

The most common assumption is that ε, takes on Weibull

Probability Distribution, which results in the Multinomial Logit
demand Model

Multinomial Logit Model

pm = eUm
Σ eUm

pm = probability that mode m is chosen

Logit Model: Exercise: (Example
12.11)
The utility functions for auto and transit are as follows.
Auto: UA = - 0.46 - 0.35T1 - 0.08T2 - 0.005C
Transit: UT = - 0.07 - 0.05T1 - 0.15T2 - 0.005C

where T1 = total travel time (min), T2 = waiting time (min), C = cost (cents)

The travel characteristics between two zones are as follows:

Auto Transit
T1 20 30
T2 8 6
C 320 100
Example 12.12

Referring to Example 12.11, suppose rising fuel

prices lead to an increase of $1.00 for each mode.
How will mode shares be affected?
Multinomial logit model:Example

A market segment consists of 500 individuals. A multinomial logit

mode choice model is calibrated for this market segment, resulting in
the following utility function:
u = Bm - 0.30C - 0.02T
where C is out of pocket cost (RM), T is travel time (min). Values of Bm are
Bus transit 0.00
Rail transit 0.40
Auto 2.00
For a particular origin-destination pair, the cost of an auto trip, which
takes 15 min is RM2.50. Rail transit trips, which take 20 min, cost
RM1.50. Bus transit takes 30 min and costs RM1.00. Predict the
number of trips by each mode from this market segment.
Solution:

Determine utility functions:

uB = 0.00 - 0.30 (1.00) - 0.02 (30) = - 0.90

uR = 0.40 - 0.30 (1.50) - 0.02 (20) = - 0.45
uA = 2.00 - 0.30 (2.50) - 0.02 (15) = 0.95

Determine probability of each mode:

-0.90
pB = e = 0.406 = 0.112
-0.90 -0.45 0.95
e +e +e 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586
-0.45
pR = e = 0.638 = 0.176
-0.90 -0.45 0.95
e +e +e 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586
0.95
pA = e = 2.586 = 0.712
-0.90 -0.45 0.95
e +e +e 0.406 + 0.638 + 2.586
Solution cont.:

Determine number of trips by each mode:

TB = 0.112 x 500 = 56
TR = 0.176 x 500 = 88
TA = 0.712 x 500 = 356

Total = 56 + 88 + 356 = 500 Check

Final Jun 2016
Table below shows the travel data between Bandar Perda and Bukit
Mertajam. Using the Multinomial Logit Model, evaluate the mode share
for the route using the following utility function:

Uk = Ak - 0.05Ta - 0.04Tw - 0.03Tr - 0.014C

A reduction in the price of fuel has changed the out-of-pocket cost for both
modes to RM1.50. Analyse the mode-share, taking into account the change
for the out-of-pocket cost and comment on the results obtained.

Parameter Private vehicle Public transport

Access Time (min) Ta 10 15
Waiting Time (min) Tw 0 15
Riding Time (min) Tr 30 50
Out-of-pocket cost 4 2
Calibration constant -0.01 -0.07
2.2.4 Trip Assignment

Final step in the transportation forecasting process.

To determine the actual street/highway routes that will be

used and the no. of auto & buses that can be expected on
each highway segment.

Traffic assignment = procedure used to determine expected

traffic volumes.
Cont.

Data required for trip assignment:

1. number of trips that will be made from one zone to another

(from trip distribution)
2. available highway or transit routes between zones
3. how long it will take to travel on each route
4. a decision rule (or algorithm) that explains how motorists or
transit users select a route
5. external trips that were not considered in the previous trip
generation and distribution steps.
 Trip Assignment: Methods
Methods:

1. Minimum time path (all or nothing) assignment

2. Multiple route assignment

3. Diversion curve
Similar to mode choice. The traffic between 2 routes is determined as a function
of relative travel time/cost. Ex. A graph of percent travel on route B vs. travel time
ratio (time on route A/ time on route B)

4. Minimum Time Path with Capacity Restraint assignment

Is a refinement of the min. path method. After a proportion of traffic has been
assigned to a link, the travel time on each link are adjusted based on the capacity
& the number of trips on each link, the iteration goes on until all trips have been
4
assigned. Eg: t = to [1 + 0.15 (v/c) ]
Minimum time path

• Minimum Path Assignment (all-or-nothing) is based on the theory

that a motorist or transit user will select the quickest route
(minimum impedance) between any O-D pair.

• Thus, it is necessary to find the shortest route from the zone of

origin to all other destination zones → develop skim tree.

• Unrealistic → only one path between every O-D pair is utilised

even if there is another path with the same or nearly same travel
time/cost.
Minimum time path: Example I
Starting Centrod 1: Find the shortest route to 19
T1-20 = 3 25
T1-20-25 = 6
3
T1-17-19 = 5 19 1
18 20 21
T1-17 = 3
2 3 4
T1-20-21 = 7
16 17
T1-17-13 = 6 3
1
2
T1-20-19 = 4 3
T1-17-16 = 5 13

• * Two possible routes to node 19 ⇒ choose

shortest time.

80
Minimum time path: Example II

All-or-nothing:
Simplest technique.
Combination of many parameters.
Example:

From zone centroid To zone centroid Traffic volume (v/hr)

1 2 2500
1 3 3000
1 4 4000
83
Example II: cont.

+4000
+3000 +3000
18 3
+4000
+3000
1 11 15 +4000
+2500
+3000 +2500
+4000
12 2
+2500

84
Example II: cont.

Traffic volume assign to various links are;

Link Traffic Flow (v/hr)

1-11 9500
11-12 2500
12-2 2500
11-15 7000
15-18 7000
18-3 3000
18-4 4000

If overloading is found to exist, the journey times are altered &

assignment is repeated.
85
Example III
Assign the vehicle trips shown in the OD trip table to the network,
using the all-or-nothing assignment technique. Summarize your
results by list all of the links in the network and their
corresponding traffic volume after loading

1 2 3 4 5
1 - 100 100 200 150
2 400 - 200 100 500
3 200 100 - 100 150
4 250 150 300 - 400
5 200 100 50 350 -

http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
cont.

8 3
1 2 3
12 5
5 7

5 4
6
Time in minutes
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
Solution
• The all-or-nothing technique simply assumes that
all of the traffic between a particular origin and
destination will take the shortest path (with
respect to time).

• For example, all of the 200 vehicles that travel

between nodes 1 and 4 will travel via nodes 1-5-4.

• The tables shown below indicate the routes that

were selected for loading as well as the total traffic
volume for each link in the system after all of the
links were loaded.
http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
Solution

http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/
TrafficAssignment.htm
 cont.
Link Volume Link Volume

1-2 200 3-2 300

2-1 600 2-4 600

1-5 350 4-2 250

5-1 450 3-4 250

2-5 0 4-3 350

5-2 0 4-5 1300

2-3 300 5-4 700

http://www.webpages.uidaho.edu/niatt_labmanual/chapters/traveldemandforecasting/exampleproblems/TrafficAssignment.htm
Multipath Assignment
• Does not assume that all traffic will use the minimum
path
- traffic is assigned to the various paths between the
two zones based on their relative impedance.
- the path with the minimum impedance (ex.Travel
time) will get the most traffic followed by paths
with higher impedance.

• This method is still limited by the fact that the

impedance is based on free flow assumptions and the
impedance value is not changed to reflex the level of
traffic loading.

103
 Multipath Assignment: Example
The details of travel time and capacity of different
links of a road network is as follows.

Link Travel time (min) Practical capacity

(pcu/h)

1 - 11 3 9000
11 - 15 2 7000
11 - 12 2 8000
12 - 16 4 9000
15 - 18 3 8000
16 - 20 2 7000
18 - 20 2 6000
Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 Multipath Assignment: Example
Assign a traffic volume of 9000 pcu/h between
nodes 1 and 20 by multiple route assignment
technique. (Draw the link diagram)

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
 Multipath Assignment: Solution
Two alternative routes from 1 to 20:

1. 1 – 11 – 15 – 18 – 20 = 10 min
2. 1 – 11 – 12 – 16 – 20 = 11 min

Using equation, the proportion using route (1) is

1/10 = 0.524 , hence 0.524 x 9000 = 4716 pcu/h

1/10 + 1/11

For route (2)

1/11 = 0.476 , hence 0.476 x 9000 = 4284 pcu/h

1/10 + 1/11

Source: Prof. Dr. V. Thamizh Arasan, Department of Civil Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras
Capacity Restrained

1.2
Travel time on link

1
0.8
0.6 β
& ,V ) #
0.4 t = t0 $1 + α * ' !
0.2 $% + C ( !"
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Volume in Vehicles/hour
α = 0.15, β = 4.0
V=volume, C=capacity, t0=free flow travel time
Capacity restrained:Example
In example 12.16, the volume on link 1 to 5 was 485, and the
travel time was 2 minutes. If the capacity of the link is 500,
determine the link travel time that should be used for the next
traffic assignment iteration

t = to [1 + 0.15 (v/c)4]
t1-5 = 2 [1 + 0.15 (485/500)4]
= 2.27 minutes

108
 TOPIC 2.3
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
MANAGEMENT
Introduction
Transportation systems management (TSM) is the term used to describe the
operational planning process to operate the major transportation facilities at their
most productive and efficient levels.

Some other terms associated with the TSM concept are “transportation demand
management” and “transportation supply management”.

Transportation demand management (TDM) refers to action taken to reduce the

number of vehicles on local streets and highways during peak travel hours by
encouraging commuters to share driving or change travelling hours.

Transportation supply management focused on improving streets or highways

facilities by development of new or expanded infrastructure. Major infrastructure
improvements include civil projects such as new freeways and road widening.

The main objective is to create more efficient use of existing facilities through
improved management and operation of vehicles and the roadway.
TSM: framework

• The framework of TSM:

1. Identification of present & future transportation→ collect

data on site
2. Setting goals & objectives → ex. improve safety, increase
mobility, improve road performance
3. Formulation of Alternative transportation strategies → do
something or do nothing. If more than 1 alternative, have
to formulate based on goals
4. Estimation of effects & impacts on implementing the
formulated strategies → ex: without development LOS C,
with development LOS B
TSM: framework

• The framework of TSM:

5. Evaluation & selection of alternatives→ evaluate which

one is the best
6. Implementation
7. Monitoring the effects & impacts→ effects & impacts
toward the goal.
TSM: strategies

• Three basic categories of TSM strategies:

1. Creating efficient use of road space → managing

transportation supply
2. Reducing vehicle use in congested areas → managing
transportation demand / transportation demand
management (TDM) and land use
3. Provide transit service → public transport
TSM: actions/technique

• Creating efficient use of road space:

To improve traffic flow without altering the total number of
vehicles that use the roadway. Main concern is to reduce travel
time & delay for motorists, pedestrians & transit users

1. Traffic operations improvements

2. Traffic signalization improvements
3. Improvements for pedestrians & bicycles
4. Parking management
5. Work schedule management
6. Inter modal coordination (ex: integrate different transit, LRT,
monorail, commuter)
TSM: actions/technique

• Reducing vehicle use in congested area:

To reduce vehicle-traffic volume on roadways but at the
same time increase person-traffic volume

1. Increase vehicle occupancy through car-pooling

2. Discouraging vehicle use by economic means (road
pricing)
3. Encouraging travel by means other than private vehicle
4. Reduction of HGV traffic in congested area
TSM: actions/technique

• Provide transit service:

To increase the modal shift from private vehicles to public
transport system

1. Extension of bus services to newly developed area

2. Restructuring of bus routing system
3. Improvement of bus user facilities (bus stop, terminal)
4. Promote the use of mass transit system (LRT, monorail)