Dabur Financial Model
Dabur Financial Model
model is for educational purposes only and should not be used for any
Different Case Scenarios
Historical Results
Particulars INR (in Cr) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income Statement
Revenue from Operations 7,701.44 7,748.34 8,533.05 8,703.59 9,561.65
y-o-y growth % 0.61% 10.13% 2.00% 9.86%
Balance sheet
Capital Asset Turnover 3.93 3.82 4.33 3.86 4.26
Disposals of Assets 40.75 33.94 25.29 53.57 59.02
Disposals % to GrossAssets 2.03% 1.47% 1.01% 2.02% 1.89%
Gain/Loss on disposal of assets 4.42 3.44 -0.71 3.99 0.37
* Note : - Dabur has pledged to spend over 550 crores in CAPEX over next 5 years. So ,
CAPEX for upcoming year has forcasted by keeping this point in mind. For ex: - 550/5= 110
63 66 70 73 79
0.60% 0.57% 0.55% 0.52% 0.51%
30 29 27 29 28
120 123 125 123 123
132 134 137 134 135
550
Historical Results Forecast Period
Financial Statements (INR in Cr.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Balance sheet Check OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
Revenue from operations 7,701.44 7,748.34 8,533.05 8,703.59 9,561.65 10,517.8 11,569.6
Other income 298.35 305.18 296.17 305.29 325.29 382.70 415.53
Total Revenue 7,999.79 8,053.52 8,829.22 9,008.88 9,886.94 10,900.52 11,985.13
Cost of Good Sold 3,755.37 3,819.92 4,290.97 4,341.29 4,773.91 5,220.10 5,762.22
Excise Duty 87.85 26.49 18.06 18.95 15.05 33.28 22.37
Gross Profit 4,156.57 4,207.11 4,520.19 4,648.64 5,097.98 5,647.14 6,200.54
Employee Benefit Expenses 789.61 792.79 937.31 947.74 1,033.46 1,118.39 1,239.03
Advertisement & Publicity 646.14 606.71 608.33 649.98 784.36 820.82 889.34
Other Expenses 913.53 884.99 938.22 953.28 952.19 1,160.95 1,257.98
Exceptional Items - 14.54 75.34 100.00 - - -
EBITDA 1,807.29 1,908.08 1,960.99 1,997.64 2,327.97 2,546.98 2,814.18
Depriciation & Amortisation Expenses 142.86 162.18 176.90 220.45 240.13 208.08 223.68
EBIT 1,664.43 1,745.90 1,784.09 1,777.19 2,087.84 2,338.90 2,590.50
Finance Cost 54.03 53.05 59.58 49.54 30.81 62.60 66.40
EBT 1,610.40 1,692.85 1,724.51 1,727.65 2,057.03 2,276.30 2,524.10
Profit after Dividend 874.92 36.38 951.33 917.80 847.61 1,144.45 1,284.62
Balance Sheet
Assets
Non-Current Assets :
Property , Plant & Equipment 1,479.02 1,552.10 1,547.97 1,820.98 1,811.70 2,601.78 2,846.55
Capital Work in Progress 42.10 41.51 63.76 146.57 147.30 168.53 193.28
Investment Property 54.99 54.16 52.10 51.55 50.50 49.38 48.27
Goodwill 410.53 411.54 336.07 335.97 336.01 336.01 336.01
Other intangible Assets 13.86 10.31 32.92 44.18 44.71 45.97 48.53
Investments 2,499.41 3,091.78 2,633.35 1,409.23 3,413.62 3,413.62 3,413.62
loans 11.86 13.14 17.56 24.64 22.48 17.94 19.15
Other Financial assets 6.38 4.11 77.66 528.48 88.65 88.65 88.65
Deferred Tax Assets - - - 22.00 17.95 - -
Non-Current Tax Assets 3.31 3.33 0.89 1.09 4.29 - -
Other Non-current assets 96.31 79.90 88.13 89.06 133.98 133.98 133.98
Total Non-current Assets 4,617.77 5,261.88 4,850.41 4,473.75 6,071.19 6,855.85 7,128.03
Current Assets :
Cash & Cash Equivalent (inc Bank Deposits) 304.81 306.06 328.16 811.37 1329.03 1,383.96 2,323.81
Inventories 1,106.71 1,256.18 1,300.53 1,379.57 1,734.28 1,712.85 1,938.49
Investments 740.75 713.39 725.41 1,391.03 746.01 863.32 887.83
Trade Receivable 650.42 706.08 833.56 813.89 561.58 876.66 908.84
Loan 3.80 34.88 11.04 13.07 14.46 14.46 14.46
Other Financial Assets 38.12 28.27 26.47 2.62 2.95 2.95 2.95
Current Tax Assets - 1.96 1.32 0.88 0.24 - -
Other Current Assets 269.86 391.01 359.50 467.56 387.12 375.01 396.04
Assets held for sale - 1.92 0.24 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Total Current Assets 3,114.47 3,439.75 3,586.23 4,880.26 4,775.94 5,229.48 6,472.69
Liabilities
Non-current Liability
Borrowings 470.39 364.34 26.05 162.89 134.13 134.13 134.13
Other Financial Liabilities 3.71 4.25 4.56 4.66 1.37 - -
Provisions 53.40 56.50 59.52 62.94 63.31 63.31 63.31
Defered Tax liability 108.04 109.05 23.14 17.43 13.91 - -
Total Non-current Liability 635.54 534.14 113.27 247.92 212.72 197.44 197.44
Current Liability
Borrowings 440.33 464.49 498.23 304.24 349.14 411.29 405.48
Trade Payable 1,310.03 1,410.32 1,455.43 1,482.15 1,915.26 1,882.17 2,118.75
Other Financial Liabilities 174.69 238.20 327.62 225.52 238.93 238.93 238.93
Other Current Liabilities 169.10 173.03 198.14 239.78 158.44 158.44 158.44
Provision 91.89 107.47 130.24 165.54 187.84 187.84 187.84
Current Tax Liability 38.50 40.93 50.65 46.65 84.58 - -
Total Current Liability 2,224.54 2,434.44 2,660.31 2,463.88 2,934.19 2,878.67 3,109.44
Total Equities & Liabilities 7,732.24 8,701.63 8,436.64 9,354.01 10,847.13 12,085.33 13,600.72
Balancing Figure (B/F) 301.10 301.81 323.60 806.71 1,327.66 1,383.96 2,323.81
Net Increase (decrease) in Cash 77.64 (5.63) (35.72) 38.17 (11.14) 520.08 903.78
Opening Cash Balance 34.86 112.50 106.87 71.15 109.32 98.18 618.26
Closing Cash Balance 112.50 106.87 71.15 109.32 98.18 618.26 1,522.04
Supporting Schedules
Working Capital Schedule
Accumulated Depriciation
Opening Balance 773.54 827.45 954.64 1,099.04 1,295.86 1,445.68 1,586.95
Less:- Disposal / Adjustment for the year (35.75) (24.42) (20.22) (32.62) (35.52) (54.87) (54.25)
Add: - Current year depriciation 135.82 155.95 168.60 210.25 230.42 196.14 211.02
Less / Add :- Foreign currency translation Diff (46.16) (4.34) (3.98) 19.19 (45.08) - -
Balance at the end of year 827.45 954.64 1,099.04 1,295.86 1,445.68 1,586.95 1,743.73
Net Value of PPE 1,479.02 1,552.10 1,547.97 1,820.98 1,811.70 2,601.78 2,846.55
Investment Property
Opening Investment Property 70.15 63.56 63.89 62.48 63.26 63.25 63.25
Add :- Additions for the year - - 0.01 - 0.15 - -
Less:- Disposal for the year - - (1.86) - - - -
Less / Add :- Foreign currency translation diff (6.59) 0.33 0.44 0.78 (0.16) - -
Closing Investment Property 63.56 63.89 62.48 63.26 63.25 63.25 63.25
Accumulated Depriciation
Opening Balance 9.55 8.57 9.73 10.38 11.71 12.75 13.87
Less:- Disposal for the year - - (0.59) - - - -
Add: - Current year Depriciation 1.19 1.11 1.12 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.11
Less / Add :- Foreign currency translation diff (2.17) 0.05 0.12 0.24 (0.06) - -
Closing Balance 8.57 9.73 10.38 11.71 12.75 13.87 14.98
Net Value of Investment Property 54.99 54.16 52.10 51.55 50.50 49.38 48.27
Accumulated Depriciation
Opening Balance 42.73 48.28 53.28 60.40 69.17 77.62 88.44
Add: - Current year Depriciation/ Amortisation 5.85 5.12 7.18 9.11 8.61 10.82 11.54
Less / Add :- Foreign currency translation diff (0.30) (0.12) (0.06) (0.34) (0.16) - -
Closing Balance 48.28 53.28 60.40 69.17 77.62 88.44 99.98
Net Value of Other Intangible Assets 13.86 10.31 32.92 44.18 44.71 45.97 48.53
Total Depriciation & Amortisation Expenses 142.86 162.18 176.90 220.45 240.13 208.08 223.68
Capital Work-in-Progress
Opening Balance 44.80 42.10 41.51 63.76 146.57 147.30 168.53
Additions for the year 43.20 32.40 58.01 102.65 86.96 64.64 68.93
Less: - Transfer to PPE (39.56) (33.92) (32.29) (26.27) (85.03) (43.41) (44.18)
Less: - Transfer to Intangible Assets - - (5.03) (0.19) - - -
Less / Add :- Foreign currency translation diff (6.34) 0.93 1.56 6.62 (1.20) - -
Closing Balance 42.10 41.51 63.76 146.57 147.30 168.53 193.28
Forecast Period
- - -
- - -
11,674.91 13,483.44 15,526.61
7700.22
509.06
8209.28
DCF & Sensitivity Analysis
All amounts Denominated in Crores
Assumptions
Exit Multiple
506.47 26.3x 36.3x 46.3x 56.3x 66.3x
3.54%
6.54%
Disco 9.54%
12.54%
15.54%
Exit
31/3/2026
1.00
EV/EBITDA 144,355.76
Perpetual Growth Rate 97,736.81
Average Terminal Value 121,046.28
###
121046.28
121046.28
Rate of Return
Current Price 615.00
Target Price 506.47
Target Price Downside -17.65%
4.70%
RELATIVE VALUATION - Comparable Company Analysis
All amounts denominated in crores otherwise stated
Market Data
Price Shares Market Cap Net Debt EV
Company Name (INR/share) (Cr) (Cr) (Cr) (Cr)
Average
Median
DABUR LTD.
R LTD.
Valuation Summary
700.00
600.00
500.00
400.00
300.00
200.00
100.00
Comps DCF - Base DCF - Upside 52 wk hi/lo
Key Assumptions - Dabur
Current Price 615 Revenue 9,562
Shares Outstandin 177 EBITDA 2,328
Debt 509 EBIT 2,088
Cash 1,329 Earnings 1,696