Module 4
Module 4
What is macroeconomics?
the study of the economy as a whole, and the variables that control the macro-economy.
the study of government policy meant to control and stabilize the economy over time, that is,
to reduce fluctuations in the economy.
the study of monetary policy, fiscal policy, and supply-side economics.
In Simultaneous Equations
An endogenous variable is one that is explained by a model. So if you have a set of simultaneous
equations, those equations (the simultaneous equation model) should explain the behavior of any
endogenous variable. On the other hand, if the model doesn’t explain the behavior of certain variable,
then those variables are exogenous. The following example (from this Yale University post) explains
the difference with an example. Equations 1, 2, and 3 are a simple multiplier model with several
variables:
1. A composition function: Ct = a1 + a2Yt + et
2. An investment function: It = b1 + b2rt + ut
3. Income identity function: Yt = Ct + It + Gt
Where “t” is time and the variables are:
Consumption (Ct)
Investment (It)
Total income/GDP (Yt)
Government Spending (Gt)
Interest Rate (Rt)
Ct, It, and Yt are endogenous as they are explained by the model.
Definition
All businesses, whether domestic or international, are affected by the
dynamic economic environment conditions prevalent in the market. Among
many economic factors affecting business some are; interest rates, demand
and supply, recession, inflation, etc. Let us take a look at such economic
factors.
All businesses want to maximize on their profits. All this can be achieved
by analysis of demands of consumers, provision of appropriate supplies to
them and the maintenance of high quality of goods and services. As simple
as this operation is, many factors affect it. The sales, production and
procurement processes of a business are greatly impacted by these
economic elements. Below is a list of economic factors that affects
businesses. Consider, all of them are interconnected.
I recommend you to read Pestle Analysis.
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Trade Cycles
This too plays an integral part in the fluctuation of cost of goods and
services sold by a business. The cycles include but are not limited to;
depression, recession, recovery, prosperity. These are all phases that make
up a business cycle that dictates the demand and supply of all goods and
services and general prices of all commodities, whether essential or non-
essential.
Inflation
Inflation usually occurs when the supply of money is too much in
the economic environment market while not equally supported by a similar
availably of goods and services. Now, there is a lot floating around in this
situation. The prices of goods have to increase one way or the other, in
order to sustain the businesses. And so there is an increase in the cost of
raw materials needed for production. This upsurge in the cost of raw
materials obviously translates to the retail price.
Let’s break this down. The buying power of consumers decreases, their
incomes remain constant, but the prices of products and services shoots
up. This will definitely affect the businesses in that, the demand for the
goods is directly dependent on its availability and its price.
Example
In 2008, the worst case of inflation affected the central African nation,
Zimbabwe. This proved very disastrous for its economy leading to the
country adopting a foreign currency as a way of solving the crises.
Recession
Companies usually make great losses and face dips in sales and profits
during recession. And in order to reduce their costs most of them usually
resort to staff cuts, retrenchment and firing, reducing capital
expenditure, advertising budgets, research and development activities, and so
on. Of course this affects companies and organizations of all sizes
regardless of the economic environments they are in.
PPT +
Figure-3 represents the graphical representation of
national income determination in the two-sector
economy:
In Figure-3, while drawing AS schedule it is assumed that the total
income and total expenditure are equal. Therefore, the numerical
value of AS schedule is one. AD schedule is prepared by adding the
schedule of C and I. The aggregate demand and aggregate supply
intersect each other at point E, which is termed as equilibrium
point.
The income level at point E is Rs. 200 billion, which represents the
national income of the economy. The schedule curve after point E
represents that the AS is greater than AD (AS > AD). In such a
situation, the products and services are costing more than Rs. 200
billion; therefore, households are not willing to buy them.
C + I = C-HS
Therefore, I = S
C = a + bY
AD = a + bY + I
C = 50 + 0.5 Y
AD = 50 + 0.5 Y + 50
KEY TAKEAWAYS
As you can see, this cycle can repeat itself through several iterations; what
began as an investment in roads quickly multiplied into an economic
stimulus benefiting workers across a wide range of industries.
1 / (1 - MPC)1/(1−MPC)
Therefore, in our above examples, the investment multipliers would be 3.33
and 10 for the workers and the businesses, respectively. The reason the
businesses are associated with a higher investment multiple is that their MPC
is higher than that of the workers. In other words, they spend a greater
percentage of their income on other parts of the economy, thereby spreading
the economic stimulus caused by the initial investment more widely.
Subjective Factors:
Subjective factors basically underlie and determine the form of the
consumption function (i.e., its slope and position).
Keynes maintains that the strength of all these motives may vary
considerably according to the institution and the organisation of the
economic society. Since economic and social institutions and
organisations are formed by habits, race, education, morals, present
hopes and past experiences, techniques of capital equipment and
the prevailing distribution of wealth and established standard of life
— all these factors are unlikely to vary in the short run. They,
therefore, affect secular progress only very gradually. In other
words, these factors, subject to slow change and over a long period,
may be considered as given or stable.
Objective Factors:
Objective factors, subject to rapid changes and causing
violent shifts in the consumption function, are considered
below:
1. Windfall Gains or Losses:
When windfall gains or losses accrue to people their consumption
level may change suddenly. For instance, the post-war windfall
gains in stock exchanges seem to have raised the consumption
spending of rich people in the U.S.A., and to that extent, the
consumption function was shifted upward.
2. Fiscal Policy:
3. Change in Expectations:
The propensity to consume is also affected by expectations
regarding future changes. For instance, an expected war
considerably influences consumption by creating fears about future
scarcity and rising prices. This leads people to buy more than they
immediately need, i.e., to hoard. Thus, the ratio of consumption to
current income will rise, which means that the consumption
function will be shifted upward.
It will be useful to have an idea of the demand for and the supply of
money.
The modern notion about the aspects of money is different from the
traditional one. Let us analyze demand for and supply of money
separately.
(i) Transactions Motive:
This motive can be looked at:
(a) From the point of consumers who want income to meet the
household expenditure which may be termed the income motive,
and
(b) From the point of view of the businessmen, who require money
and want to hold it in order to carry on their business, i.e., the
business motive.
(a) Income Motive:
The transactions motive relates to the demand for money or the
need for cash for the current transactions of individual and business
exchanges. Individuals hold cash in order “to bridge the interval
between the receipt of income and its expenditure.” This is called
the income Motive’.
Most of the people receive their incomes by the week or the month,
while the expenditure goes on day by day. A certain amount of ready
money, therefore, is kept in hand to make current payments. This
amount will depend upon the size of the individual’s income, the
interval at which the income is received and the methods of
payments current in the locality.
(b) Business Motive:
The businessmen and the entrepreneurs also have to keep a
proportion of their resources in ready cash in order to meet current
needs of various kinds. They need money all the time in order to pay
for raw materials and transport, to pay wages and salaries and to
meet all other current expenses incurred by any business of
exchange.
(ii) Precautionary Motive:
Precautionary motive for holding money refers to the desire of the
people to hold cash balances for unforeseen contingencies People
hold a certain amount of money to provide tor the risk of unemploy-
ment, sickness, accidents and other more uncertain perils. The
amount of money held under this motive will depend on the nature
of the individual and on the conditions in which he lives.
The cash held under this motive is used to make speculative gains
by dealing in bonds whose prices fluctuate. If bond prices are
expected to rise, which in other words means that the rate of
interest is expected to fall, businessmen will buy bonds to sell when
the price actually rises.
If however, bond prices are expected to fall, i.e., the rate of interest
is expected to rise, businessmen will sell bonds to avoid capital
losses. Nothing being certain in this dynamic world, where guesses
about the future course of events are made on precarious bases,
businessmen keep cash to speculate on the probable further
changes in bond prices (or the rate of interest) with a view to
making profits.
The reason for this inverse correlation between money held for
speculative motive and the prevailing rate of interest is that at a
lower rate of interest less is lost by not lending money or investing
it, that is by holding on to money; while at a higher rate, holders of
cash balances would lose more by not lending or investing.
Conclusion:
Thus, the amount of money required to be held under the various
motives constitutes the demand for money. It may be borne in mind
that, in economic analysis, demand for money is the demand for the
existing stock of money which is available to be held. It is stock of
money not a flow of it over time.
Cash is commonly accepted as the most liquid asset. According to the liquidity
preference theory, interest rates on short-term securities are lower because
investors are not sacrificing liquidity for greater time frames than medium or
longer-term securities.
Special Considerations
Keynes introduced Liquidity Preference Theory in his book The General
Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Keynes describes the theory in
terms of three motives that determine the demand for liquidity:
When higher interest rates are offered, investors give up liquidity in exchange
for higher rates. As an example, if interest rates are rising and bond prices are
falling, an investor may sell their low paying bonds and buy higher-paying
bonds or hold onto the cash and wait for an even better rate of return.
Supply of Money:
We have described the demand for money as the demand for the
stock (not flow) of money to be held. The flow is over a period of
time and not at a given moment. In the case of commodity, it is a
flow. Goods are being continually produced and disposed of. This is
the essential difference between the demand for money and the
demand for a commodity.
By adding total currency with the public and the total demand
deposits, we get the total money supply with the public.
It is also worth nothing here that in India the deposit money with
the public has now come to exceed, albeit slightly, the total currency
money with the public. Compare with it the position in 1950-51,
when deposit money with the public was not even one-half of the
currency in circulation among the public.
This shows that the banking habit has steadily been growing in the
country and the time will not be far off when deposit money will far
outstrip the currency money.
Conclusion:
Thus, the supply of money in a country, by and large, depends on
the credit control policies pursued by the banking system of the
country.
The term “business cycle” (or economic cycle or boom-bust cycle) refers to
economy-wide fluctuations in production, trade, and general economic activity. From
a conceptual perspective, the business cycle is the upward and downward
movements of levels of GDP (gross domestic product) and refers to the period of
expansions and contractions in the level of economic activities (business
fluctuations) around a long-term growth trend.
Figure 1. Business Cycles: The phases of a business cycle follow a wave-like pattern over time with regard
to GDP, with expansion leading to a peak and then followed by contraction.
Business cycle fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend and are usually
measured in terms of the growth rate of real gross domestic product.
In the United States, it is generally accepted that the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER) is the final arbiter of the dates of the peaks and troughs of the
business cycle. An expansion is the period from a trough to a peak, and
a recession as the period from a peak to a trough. The NBER identifies a recession
as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting
more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment,
industrial production. ” This is significantly different from the commonly cited
definition of a recession being signaled by two consecutive quarters of decline in real
GDP. If the economy does not begin to expand again then the economy may be
considered to be in a state of depression.
Expansion
Normal Maintenance is busy and has recently had to turn down jobs because it lacks
the capacity to do all the work offered. Homeowners now want to make home repairs
and improvements which they had had to put off during the sour economy. With the
economy improving, others are fixing up their homes to sell. Faced with so much
demand, the owner of Normal Maintenance must decide whether to pay his existing
workers overtime (which will increase the costs for each job and reduce profits) or
hire additional workers. The competition for qualified construction labor is steep, and
he is concerned that he will have to pay more than his usual rate of twelve
dollars per hour or possibly get workers who are not as qualified as his current crew.
He is, however, able to charge higher prices for his work because homeowners are
experiencing long waits and delays getting bids and jobs completed. The owner
purchases a new truck and invests in additional tools in order to keep up with the
demand for services. Customers are willing to pay more than usual so they can get
the work done. Business is expanding to such an extent that Normal Maintenance
and its suppliers are starting to have trouble obtaining materials such as shingles
and siding because the manufacturers have not kept pace with the economic
expansion. In general, business is great for Normal Maintenance, but the expansion
brings challenges.
Peak
At the peak of the business cycle, the economy can be said to be “overheated.”
Despite hiring additional workers, the owner and crews of Normal Maintenance are
working seven days a week and are still unable to keep up with demand. They can’t
work any harder or faster. As a result, the crews are exhausted and the quality of
their work is beginning to decline. Customers leave messages requesting work and
services, but the owner is so busy he doesn’t return phone calls. Jobs are getting
started and completed late as the crews struggle to cover multiple job sites. As a
result, customer complaints are on the rise, and the owner is worried about the long-
term reputation of the business. Neither the business nor the economy can sustain
this level of activity, and despite the fact that Normal Maintenance is making great
money, everyone is ready for things to let up a little.
Contraction
As the economy begins to contract, business begins to slow down for Normal
Maintenance. They find that they are caught up on work and they aren’t getting so
many phone calls. The owner is able to reduce his labor costs by cutting back on
overtime and eliminate working on the weekends. When the phone does ring,
homeowners are asking for bids on work—not just placing work orders. Normal
Maintenance loses out on several jobs because their bids are too high. The company
begins to look for new suppliers who can provide them with materials at a cheaper
price so they can be more competitive. The building material companies start
offering “deals” and specials to contractors in order to generate sales. In general,
competition for work has increased and some of the businesses that popped up
during the expansion are no longer in the market. In the short term the owner is
confident that he has enough work to keep his crew busy, but he’s concerned that if
things don’t pick up, he might have to lay off some of the less experienced workers.
Trough
On Monday morning, the crew of Normal Maintenance show up to work and the
owner has to send them home: there’s no work for them. During the week before,
they worked only three days, and the owner is down to his original crew of three
employees. Several months ago he laid off the workers hired during the expansion.
Although that was a difficult decision, the owner knows from hard experience
that sometimes businesses fail not because their owners make bad decisions, but
because they run out of money during recessions when there isn’t enough customer
demand to sustain them. Without enough working capital to keep the doors open,
some are forced to close down.
Representatives from supply companies are stopping by the office hoping to get an
order for even the smallest quantity of materials. The new truck and tools that the
owner purchased during the boom now sit idle and represent additional debt and
costs. The company’s remaining work comes from people who have decided to fix
up their existing homes because the economy isn’t good enough for them to buy new
ones. The owner increases his advertising budget, hoping to capture any business
that might be had. He is optimistic that Normal Maintenance will weather this
economic storm—they’ve done it before—but he’s worried about his employees
paying their bills over the winter.
The owner of Normal Maintenance has been in business for a long time, so he’s had
some experience with the economic cycle. Though each stage has its stressors, he
has learned to plan for them. One thing he knows is that the economy will
eventually begin to expand again and run through the cycle all over again.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Business cycles are identified as having four distinct phases: peak,
trough, contraction, and expansion.
Business cycle fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend and
are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross
domestic product.
In the United States, it is generally accepted that the National Bureau of
Economic Research (NBER) is the final arbiter of the dates of the peaks
and troughs of the business cycle.
Demand-Pull Inflation
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Demand-Pull Inflation
Understanding Demand-Pull Inflation
The term demand-pull inflation usually describes a widespread phenomenon.
That is, when consumer demand outpaces the available supply of many types
of consumer goods, demand-pull inflation sets in, forcing an overall increase
in the cost of living.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
When demand surpasses supply, higher prices are the result. This is
demand-pull inflation.
A low unemployment rate is unquestionably good in general, but it can
cause inflation because more people have more disposable income.
Increased government spending is good for the economy, too, but it can
lead to scarcity in some goods and inflation will follow.
In Keynesian economic theory, an increase in employment leads to an
increase in aggregate demand for consumer goods. In response to the
demand, companies hire more people so that they can increase their output.
The more people firms hire, the more employment increases. Eventually, the
demand for consumer goods outpaces the ability of manufacturers to supply
them.
In good times, companies hire more. But, eventually, higher consumer
demand may outpace production capacity, causing inflation.
Demand-pull and cost-push move in practically the same way but they work
on a different aspect of the system. Demand-pull inflation demonstrates the
causes of price increases. Cost-push inflation shows how inflation, once it
begins, is difficult to stop.
Demand for many models of cars goes through the roof, but the
manufacturers literally can't make them fast enough. The prices of the most
popular models rise, and bargains are rare. The result is an increase in the
average price of a new car.
It's not just cars that are affected, though. With almost everyone gainfully
employed and borrowing rates at a low, consumer spending on many goods
increases beyond the available supply.
Cost-Push Inflation
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Cost-Push Inflation
Understanding Cost-Push Inflation
The most common cause of cost-push inflation starts with an increase in
the cost of production, which may be expected or unexpected. For example,
the cost of raw materials or inventory used in production might increase,
leading to higher costs.
For cost-push inflation to take place, demand for the affected product must
remain constant during the time the production cost changes are occurring. To
compensate for the increased cost of production, producers raise the price to
the consumer to maintain profit levels while keeping pace with expected
demand.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Increased labor costs can create cost-push inflation such as when mandatory
wage increases for production employees due to an increase in minimum the
wage per worker. A worker strike due to stalled to contract negotiations might
lead to a decline in production and as a result, higher prices ensue for the
scare product.
Other events might qualify if they lead to higher production costs, such as a
sudden change in government that affects the country’s ability to maintain its
previous output. However, government-induced increases in production costs
are more often seen in developing nations.
What followed was a supply shock and a quadrupling of the price of oil from
approximately $3 to $12 per barrel.2 Cost-push inflation ensued since there
was no increase in demand for the commodity. The impact of the supply cut
led to a surge in gas prices as well as higher production costs for companies
that used petroleum products.
With so many workers available, there's little need for employers to "bid" for
the services of employees by paying them higher wages. In times of high
unemployment, wages typically remain stagnant, and wage inflation (or rising
wages) is non-existent.2
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Does Raising The Minimum Wage Increase Inflation?
The Phillips Curve
A.W. Phillips was one of the first economists to present compelling evidence
of the inverse relationship between unemployment and wage inflation. Phillips
studied the relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of
wages in the United Kingdom over a period of almost a full century (1861-
1957), and he discovered that the latter could be explained by (a) the level of
unemployment and (b) the rate of change of unemployment.4 5
Phillips hypothesized that when demand for labor is high and there are few
unemployed workers, employers can be expected to bid wages up quite
rapidly. However, when demand for labor is low, and unemployment is high,
workers are reluctant to accept lower wages than the prevailing rate, and as a
result, wage rates fall very slowly.6
A second factor that affects wage rate changes is the rate of change in
unemployment. If business is booming, employers will bid more vigorously for
workers, which means that demand for labor is increasing at a fast pace (i.e.,
percentage unemployment is decreasing rapidly), than they would if the
demand for labor were either not increasing (e.g., percentage unemployment
is unchanging) or only increasing at a slow pace.6
Since wages and salaries are a major input cost for companies, rising wages
should lead to higher prices for products and services in an economy,
ultimately pushing the overall inflation rate higher. As a result, Phillips graphed
the relationship between general price inflation and unemployment, rather
than wage inflation.6 The graph is known today as the Phillips Curve.
Inflation can be reduced by policies that slow down the growth of AD and/or boost the rate of
growth of aggregate supply (AS)
Fiscal policy:
Monetary policy:
1. A ‘tightening of monetary policy’ involves the central bank introducing a period of higher
interest rates to reduce consumer and investment spending
2. Higher interest rates may cause the exchange rate to appreciate in value bringing about a
fall in the cost of imported goods and services and also a fall in demand for exports (X)
ii.A reduction in taxes which increases risk-taking and incentives to work – a cut in income
taxes can be considered both a fiscal and a supply-side policy
iii.Policies to open a market to more competition to increase supply and lower prices
Direct controls - a government might choose to introduce direct controls on some prices and
wages
1.
a. Public sector pay awards – the annual increase in government sector pay might be
tightly controlled or even froze (this means a real wage decrease).
b. The prices of some utilities such as water bills are subject to regulatory control – if
the price capping regime changes, this can have a short-term effect on the rate of
inflation
The most appropriate way to control inflation in the short term is for the government and
the central bank to keep control of aggregate demand to a level consistent with our
productive capacity
AD is probably better controlled through the use of monetary policy rather than an over-
reliance on using fiscal policy as an instrument of demand-management
Controlling demand to limit inflation is likely to be ineffective in the short run if the main
causes are due to external shocks such as high world food and energy prices
The UK is an open economy in which inflation is strongly affected by events in the rest of the
world
In the long run, it is the growth of a country’s supply-side productive potential that gives an
economy the flexibility to grow without suffering from acceleration in cost and price
inflation.
Print page
What Is Deflation?
Deflation is a general decline in prices for goods and services, typically
associated with a contraction in the supply of money and credit in the
economy. During deflation, the purchasing power of currency rises over time.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Deflation is the general decline of the price level of goods and services.
Deflation is usually associated with a contraction in the supply of money
and credit, but prices can also fall due to increased productivity and
technological improvements.
Whether the economy, price level, and money supply are deflating or
inflating changes the appeal of different investment options.
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Deflation
Understanding Deflation
Deflation causes the nominal costs of capital, labor, goods, and services to
fall, though their relative prices may be unchanged. Deflation has been a
popular concern among economists for decades. On its face, deflation
benefits consumers because they can purchase more goods and services with
the same nominal income over time.
However, not everyone wins from lower prices and economists are often
concerned about the consequences of falling prices on various sectors of the
economy, especially in financial matters. In particular, deflation can harm
borrowers, who can be bound to pay their debts in money that is worth more
than the money they borrowed, as well as any financial market participants
who invest or speculate on the prospect of rising prices.
Causes of Deflation
By definition, monetary deflation can only be caused by a decrease in the
supply of money or financial instruments redeemable in money. In modern
times, the money supply is most influenced by central banks, such as the
Federal Reserve. When the supply of money and credit falls, without a
corresponding decrease in economic output, then the prices of all goods tend
to fall. Periods of deflation most commonly occur after long periods of artificial
monetary expansion. The early 1930s was the last time significant deflation
was experienced in the United States. The major contributor to this
deflationary period was the fall in the money supply following catastrophic
bank failures. Other nations, such as Japan in the 1990s, have experienced
deflation in modern times.
World-renowned economist Milton Friedman argued that under optimal policy,
in which the central bank seeks a rate of deflation equal to the real interest
rate on government bonds, the nominal rate should be zero, and the price
level should fall steadily at the real rate of interest. His theory birthed the
Friedman rule, a monetary policy rule.
Falling prices can also happen naturally when the output of the economy
grows faster than the supply of circulating money and credit. This occurs
especially when technology advances the productivity of an economy, and is
often concentrated in goods and industries which benefit from technological
improvements. Companies operate more efficiently as technology advances.
These operational improvements lead to lower production costs and cost
savings transferred to consumers in the form of lower prices. This is distinct
from but similar to general price deflation, which is a general decrease in the
price level and increase in the purchasing power of money.
Monetary policy is an economic policy that manages the size and growth
rate of the money supply in an economy. It is a powerful tool to regulate
macroeconomic variables such as inflation and unemployment.
Inflation
Unemployment
Using its fiscal authority, a central bank can regulate the exchange rates
between domestic and foreign currencies. For example, the central bank
may increase the money supply by issuing more currency. In such a case,
the domestic currency becomes cheaper relative to its foreign counterparts.
Central banks use various tools to implement monetary policies. The widely
utilized policy tools include:
A central bank can influence interest rates by changing the discount rate.
The discount rate (base rate) is an interest rate charged by a central bank to
banks for short-term loans. For example, if a central bank increases the
discount rate, the cost of borrowing for the banks increases. Subsequently,
the banks will increase the interest rate they charge their customers. Thus,
the cost of borrowing in the economy will increase, and the money supply
will decrease.
Central banks usually set up the minimum amount of reserves that must be
held by a commercial bank. By changing the required amount, the central
bank can influence the money supply in the economy. If monetary
authorities increase the required reserve amount, commercial banks find
less money available to lend to their clients and thus, money supply
decreases.
Commercial banks can’t use the reserves to make loans or fund investments
into new businesses. Since it constitutes a lost opportunity for the
commercial banks, central banks pay them interest on the reserves. The
interest is known as IOR or IORR (interest on reserves or interest on
required reserves).
The central bank can either purchase or sell securities issued by the
government to affect the money supply. For example, central banks can
purchase government bonds. As a result, banks will obtain more money to
increase the lending and money supply in the economy.
This is a monetary policy that aims to increase the money supply in the
economy by decreasing interest rates, purchasing government securities by
central banks, and lowering the reserve requirements for banks. An
expansionary policy lowers unemployment and stimulates business
activities and consumer spending. The overall goal of the expansionary
monetary policy is to fuel economic growth. However, it can also possibly
lead to higher inflation.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Central banks carry out a nation's monetary policy and control its money
supply, often mandated with maintaining low inflation and steady GDP
growth.
On a macro basis, central banks influence interest rates and participate
in open market operations to control the cost of borrowing and lending
throughout an economy.
Central banks also operate on a micro scale, setting commercial banks'
reserve ratio and acting as lender of last resort when necessary.
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Central Bank
The Rise of the Central Bank
Historically, the role of the central bank has been growing, some may argue,
since the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694. It is, however,
generally agreed upon that the concept of the modern central bank did not
appear until the 20th century, in response to problems in commercial banking
systems.
Macroeconomic Influences
As it is responsible for price stability, the central bank must regulate the level
of inflation by controlling money supplies by means of monetary policy. The
central bank performs open market transactions (OMO) that either inject the
market with liquidity or absorb extra funds, directly affecting the level of
inflation. To increase the amount of money in circulation and decrease the
interest rate (cost) for borrowing, the central bank can buy government bonds,
bills, or other government-issued notes. This buying can, however, also lead
to higher inflation. When it needs to absorb money to reduce inflation, the
central bank will sell government bonds on the open market, which increases
the interest rate and discourages borrowing. Open market operations are the
key means by which a central bank controls inflation, money supply, and
prices.
Microeconomic Influences
The establishment of central banks as lenders of last resort has pushed the
need for their freedom from commercial banking. A commercial bank offers
funds to clients on a first-come, first-serve basis. If the commercial bank does
not have enough liquidity to meet its clients' demands (commercial banks
typically do not hold reserves equal to the needs of the entire market), the
commercial bank can turn to the central bank to borrow additional funds. This
provides the system with stability in an objective way; central banks cannot
favor any particular commercial bank. As such, many central banks will hold
commercial-bank reserves that are based on a ratio of each commercial
bank's deposits.
Thus, a central bank may require all commercial banks to keep, for example, a
1:10 reserve/deposit ratio. Enforcing a policy of commercial bank reserves
functions as another means to control the money supply in the market. Not all
central banks, however, require commercial banks to deposit reserves. The
United Kingdom, for example, does not, while the United States does.
Unfortunately, many developing nations are faced with civil disorder or war,
which can force a government to divert funds away from the development of
the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, one factor that seems to be confirmed
is that, for a market economy to develop, a stable currency (whether achieved
through a fixed or floating exchange rate) is needed. However, the central
banks in both industrial and emerging economies are dynamic because there
is no guaranteed way to run an economy, regardless of its stage of
development.
Fiscal policy of India always has two objectives, namely improving the
growth performance of the economy and ensuring social justice to the
people.
The fiscal policy is designed to achieve certain objectives as
follows:-
1. Development by effective Mobilisation of Resources: The
principal objective of fiscal policy is to ensure rapid economic growth and
development. This objective of economic growth and development can be
achieved by Mobilisation of Financial Resources. The central and state
governments in India have used fiscal policy to mobilise resources.
The financial resources can be mobilised by:-
a. Taxation: Through effective fiscal policies, the government aims to
mobilise resources by way of direct taxes as well as indirect taxes
because most important source of resource mobilisation in India is
taxation.
b. Public Savings: The resources can be mobilised through public
savings by reducing government expenditure and increasing surpluses of
public sector enterprises.
c. Private Savings: Through effective fiscal measures such as tax
benefits, the government can raise resources from private sector and
households. Resources can be mobilised through government borrowings
by ways of treasury bills, issuance of government bonds, etc., loans from
domestic and foreign parties and by deficit financing.
2. Reduction in inequalities of Income and Wealth: Fiscal policy aims
at achieving equity or social justice by reducing income inequalities
among different sections of the society. The direct taxes such as income
tax are charged more on the rich people as compared to lower income
groups. Indirect taxes are also more in the case of semi-luxury and luxury
items which are mostly consumed by the upper middle class and the
upper class. The government invests a significant proportion of its tax
revenue in the implementation of Poverty Alleviation Programmes to
improve the conditions of poor people in society.
3. Price Stability and Control of Inflation: One of the main objectives
of fiscal policy is to control inflation and stabilize price. Therefore, the
government always aims to control the inflation by reducing fiscal deficits,
introducing tax savings schemes, productive use of financial resources,
etc.
4. Employment Generation: The government is making every possible
effort to increase employment in the country through effective fiscal
measures. Investment in infrastructure has resulted in direct and indirect
employment. Lower taxes and duties on small-scale industrial
(SSI) units encourage more investment and consequently generate more
employment. Various rural employment programmes have been
undertaken by the Government of India to solve problems in rural areas.
Similarly, self employment scheme is taken to provide employment to
technically qualified persons in the urban areas.
5. Balanced Regional Development: there are various projects like
building up dams on rivers, electricity, schools, roads, industrial projects
etc run by the government to mitigate the regional imbalances in the
country. This is done with the help of public expenditure.
6. Reducing the Deficit in the Balance of Payment: some time
government gives export incentives to the exporters to boost up the
export from the country. In the same way import curbing measures are
also adopted to check import. Hence the combine impact of these
measures is improvement in the balance of payment of the country.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The money market involves the purchase and sale of large volumes of
very short-term debt products, such as overnight reserves or
commercial paper.
An individual may invest in the money market by purchasing a money
market mutual fund, buying a Treasury bill, or opening a money market
account at a bank.
Money market investments are characterized by safety and liquidity,
with money market fund shares targeted to $1.
Volume 75%
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Money Market
Understanding the Money Market
The money market is one of the pillars of the global financial system. It
involves overnight swaps of vast amounts of money between banks and the
U.S. government. The majority of money market transactions are wholesale
transactions that take place between financial institutions and companies.
Institutions that participate in the money market include banks that lend to one
another and to large companies in the eurocurrency and time deposit markets;
companies that raise money by selling commercial paper into the market,
which can be bought by other companies or funds; and investors who
purchase bank CDs as a safe place to park money in the short term. Some of
those wholesale transactions eventually make their way into the hands of
consumers as components of money market mutual funds and other
investments.
Individuals can invest in the money market by buying money market funds,
short-term certificates of deposit (CDs), municipal notes, or U.S. Treasury
bills. For individual investors, the money market has retail locations, including
local banks and the U.S. government's TreasuryDirect website. Brokers are
another avenue for investing in the money market.
Money market funds seek stability and security with the goal of never losing
money and keeping net asset value (NAV) at $1. This one-buck NAV baseline
gives rise to the phrase "break the buck," meaning that if the value falls below
the $1 NAV level, some of the original investment is gone and investors will
lose money. However, this scenario only happens very rarely, but because
many money market funds are not FDIC-insured, meaning that money market
funds can nevertheless lose money.
In general, money market accounts offer slightly higher interest rates than
standard savings accounts. But the difference in rates between savings and
money market accounts has narrowed considerably since the 2008 financial
crisis. Average interest rates for money market accounts vary based on the
amount deposited. As of August 2020, the best-paying money market account
with no minimum deposit offered 0.99% annualized interest. 4
Funds in money market accounts are insured by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation (FDIC) at banks and the National Credit Union
Administration (NCUA) in credit unions.
As with money market accounts, bigger deposits and longer terms yield better
interest rates. Rates in August 2020 for twelve-month CDs ranged from about
0.5% to 1.5% depending on the size of the deposit.5 Unlike a money market
account, the rates offered with a CD remain constant for the deposit period.
There is a penalty associated with any early withdrawal of funds deposited in
a CD.
Commercial Paper
The commercial paper market is for buying and selling unsecured loans for
corporations in need of a short-term cash infusion. Only highly creditworthy
companies participate, so the risks are low.
Banker's Acceptances
The banker's acceptance is a short-term loan that is guaranteed by a bank.
Used extensively in foreign trade, a banker's acceptance is like a post-dated
check and serves as a guarantee that an importer can pay for the goods.
There is a secondary market for buying and selling banker's acceptances at a
discount.
Eurodollars
Eurodollars are dollar-denominated deposits held in foreign banks, and are
thus, not subject to Federal Reserve regulations. Very large deposits of
eurodollars are held in banks in the Cayman Islands and the Bahamas. Money
market funds, foreign banks, and large corporations invest in them because
they pay a slightly higher interest rate than U.S. government debt.
Repos
The repo, or repurchase agreement, is part of the overnight lending money
market. Treasury bills or other government securities are sold to another party
with an agreement to repurchase them at a set price on a set date.
Capital markets are composed of primary and secondary markets. The most
common capital markets are the stock market and the bond market.
Volume 75%
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Capital Markets
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Capital markets refer to the places where savings and investments are
moved between suppliers of capital and those who are in need of
capital.
Capital markets consist of the primary market, where new securities are
issued and sold, and the secondary market, where already-issued
securities are traded between investors.
The most common capital markets are the stock market and the bond
market.
Understanding Capital Markets
The term capital market broadly defines the place where various entities trade
different financial instruments. These venues may include the stock market,
the bond market, and the currency and foreign exchange markets. Most
markets are concentrated in major financial centers including New York,
London, Singapore, and Hong Kong.
Capital markets are composed of the suppliers and users of funds. Suppliers
include households and the institutions serving them—pension funds, life
insurance companies, charitable foundations, and non-financial companies—
that generate cash beyond their needs for investment. Users of funds include
home and motor vehicle purchasers, non-financial companies, and
governments financing infrastructure investment and operating expenses.
Capital markets are used to sell financial products such as equities and debt
securities. Equities are stocks, which are ownership shares in a company.
Debt securities, such as bonds, are interest-bearing IOUs.
These markets are divided into two different categories: primary markets—
where new equity stock and bond issues are sold to investors—
and secondary markets, which trade existing securities. Capital markets are a
crucial part of a functioning modern economy because they move money from
the people who have it to those who need it for productive use.
Primary markets are open to specific investors who buy securities directly
from the issuing company. These securities are considered primary offerings
or initial public offerings (IPOs). When a company goes public, it sells its
stocks and bonds to large-scale and institutional investors such as hedge
funds and mutual funds.
The secondary market serves an important purpose in capital markets
because it creates liquidity, giving investors the confidence to purchase
securities.
Financial Services
Financial companies involved in private rather than public markets are part of
the capital market. They include investment banks, private equity, and venture
capital firms in contrast to broker-dealers and public exchanges.
Public Markets
Operated by a regulated exchange, capital markets can refer to equity
markets in contrast to debt, bond, fixed income, money, derivatives, and
commodities markets. Mirroring the corporate finance context, capital
markets can also mean equity as well as debt, bond, or fixed income markets.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1:28
Forex Market Basics
Understanding the Foreign Exchange Market
The foreign exchange market—also called forex, FX, or currency market—
was one of the original financial markets formed to bring structure to the
burgeoning global economy. In terms of trading volume, it is, by far, the
largest financial market in the world. Aside from providing a venue for the
buying, selling, exchanging, and speculation of currencies, the forex market
also enables currency conversion for international trade settlements and
investments.
Currencies are always traded in pairs, so the "value" of one of the currencies
in that pair is relative to the value of the other. This determines how much of
country A's currency country B can buy, and vice versa. Establishing this
relationship (price) for the global markets is the main function of the foreign
exchange market. This also greatly enhances liquidity in all other financial
markets, which is key to overall stability.
One of the most unique features of the forex market is that it is comprised of a
global network of financial centers that transact 24 hours a day, closing only
on the weekends. As one major forex hub closes, another hub in a
different part of the world remains open for business. This increases the
liquidity available in currency markets, which adds to its appeal as the
largest asset class available to investors.
1. EUR/USD
2. USD/JPY
3. GBP/USD
Forex Leverage
The leverage available in FX markets is one of the highest that traders and
investors can find anywhere. Leverage is a loan given to an investor by their
broker. With this loan, investors are able to increase their trade size, which
could translate to greater profitability. A word of caution, though: losses are
also amplified.
For example, investors who have a $1,000 forex market account can trade
$100,000 worth of currency with a margin of 1%. This is referred to as having
a 100:1 leverage. Their profit or loss will be based on the
$100,000 notional amount.
There are fewer rules, which means investors aren't held to the strict
standards or regulations found in other markets.
There are no clearing houses and no central bodies that oversee the
forex market.
Most investors won't have to pay the traditional
fees or commissions that you would on another market.
Because the market is open 24 hours a day, you can trade at any time
of day, which means there's no cut-off time to be able to participate in
the market.
Finally, if you're worried about risk and reward, you can get in and out
whenever you want, and you can buy as much currency as you can
afford based on your account balance and your broker's rules for
leverage.