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S1 Binomial Distribution & Hypothesis Testing 3 QP

The document discusses several probability and hypothesis testing problems: 1) A hospital finds the probability that a patient is a "no-show" is 15%. It asks for the probability of 1 or 2+ no-shows in a sample of 20 patients. It also discusses hypothesis tests to check if a new phone call policy reduces no-shows. 2) Mark plays solitaire with a 20% win probability. It calculates his expected wins in 12 games and the probability of winning exactly or at least 2 games. It also tests if Mark's friend Ali has a higher win rate. 3) A tile manufacturer has a 10% faulty rate. It calculates probabilities and expected values for faulty tiles in a sample of

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75 views2 pages

S1 Binomial Distribution & Hypothesis Testing 3 QP

The document discusses several probability and hypothesis testing problems: 1) A hospital finds the probability that a patient is a "no-show" is 15%. It asks for the probability of 1 or 2+ no-shows in a sample of 20 patients. It also discusses hypothesis tests to check if a new phone call policy reduces no-shows. 2) Mark plays solitaire with a 20% win probability. It calculates his expected wins in 12 games and the probability of winning exactly or at least 2 games. It also tests if Mark's friend Ali has a higher win rate. 3) A tile manufacturer has a 10% faulty rate. It calculates probabilities and expected values for faulty tiles in a sample of

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1 Any patient who fails to turn up for an outpatient appointment at a hospital is described as a ‘no-show’.

At a particular hospital, on average 15% of patients are no-shows. A random sample of 20 patients
who have outpatient appointments is selected.

(i) Find the probability that


(A) there is exactly 1 no-show in the sample, [3]
(B) there are at least 2 no-shows in the sample. [2]

The hospital management introduces a policy of telephoning patients before appointments. It is hoped
that this will reduce the proportion of no-shows. In order to check this, a random sample of n patients
is selected. The number of no-shows in the sample is recorded and a hypothesis test is carried out at
the 5% level.

(ii) Write down suitable null and alternative hypotheses for the test. Give a reason for your choice
of alternative hypothesis. [4]

(iii) In the case that n = 20 and the number of no-shows in the sample is 1, carry out the test. [4]

(iv) In another case, where n is large, the number of no-shows in the sample is 6 and the critical value
for the test is 8. Complete the test. [3]

(v) In the case that n ≤ 18, explain why there is no point in carrying out the test at the 5% level. [2]

2 Mark is playing solitaire on his computer. The probability that he wins a game is 0.2, independently
of all other games that he plays.

(i) Find the expected number of wins in 12 games. [2]

(ii) Find the probability that


(A) he wins exactly 2 out of the next 12 games that he plays, [3]
(B) he wins at least 2 out of the next 12 games that he plays. [3]

(iii) Mark’s friend Ali also plays solitaire. Ali claims that he is better at winning games than Mark. In
a random sample of 20 games played by Ali, he wins 7 of them. Write down suitable hypotheses
for a test at the 5% level to investigate whether Ali is correct. Give a reason for your choice of
alternative hypothesis. Carry out the test. [9]

PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com
3 A manufacturer produces tiles. On average 10% of the tiles produced are faulty. Faulty tiles occur
randomly and independently.

A random sample of 18 tiles is selected.

(i) (A) Find the probability that there are exactly 2 faulty tiles in the sample. [3]
(B) Find the probability that there are more than 2 faulty tiles in the sample. [3]
(C) Find the expected number of faulty tiles in the sample. [2]

A cheaper way of producing the tiles is introduced. The manufacturer believes that this may increase
the proportion of faulty tiles. In order to check this, a random sample of 18 tiles produced using the
cheaper process is selected and a hypothesis test is carried out.

(ii) (A) Write down suitable null and alternative hypotheses for the test.
(B) Explain why the alternative hypothesis has the form that it does. [4]

(iii) Find the critical region for the test at the 5% level, showing all of your calculations. [4]

(iv) In fact there are 4 faulty tiles in the sample. Complete the test, stating your conclusion clearly.
[2]

PhysicsAndMathsTutor.com

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