1 SIG CLASSES

CHAPTER -3 PROBABILITY
Basic Probability
1) Three dice are thrown simultaneously. What is the
probability that all of them show the same face?
[Ans.; 1/36]
2) What is the chance that a non-leap year selected at
random will have
a. 53 Sundays,
b. 52 Sundays. [Ans.: (i) 1/7, (ii) 6/7]
3) The odds in favour of an event are 3:5. Find the
probability of occurrence of this event. [Ans.: 3/8]
4) A card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52
cards. What are the odds in favour of getting a face
card? [Ans 3:10]
5) A and B are two events, not mutually exclusive,
connected with a random experiment E. If P(A)=1/4
,P(B)=2/5 and P(A ∪ B) =1/ 2 , find the values of the
following probabilities:
a. P(A ∩ B)
b. P(A ∩ BC)
c. P(AC ∪ BC) where c stands for the complement.
[Ans.: (a) 3/20, (b) 1/10, (c) 17/20]
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6) Prove that for every two events A and B , show that

the Probability that exactly one of the two events will
occur is given by the expression.
P(A) + P(B)- 2P(A∩B)
7) If a card is drawn at random from a pack of playing
cards, what is the probability of getting a king or a red
card?
[Ans.: 7/13]
8) The probabilities of occurrence of two events E and
F are 0.25 and 0.50 respectively. The probability of
their simultaneous occurrence is 0.14. Find the
probability that neither E occurs nor F occur.
[Ans.: 0.39]
9) A card is drawn from an ordinary pack of 52 cards
and a gambler bets that, it is a spade or an ace. What
are the odds against his winning the bet?
[Ans.: 9:4]
10) The probability that a contractor will get a
plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability that he
will not get an electrical contract is 5/9. If the
probability of getting at least 1 contract is 4/5, what is
the probability that he will get both the contracts?
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[Ans.: 14/45]
11) In a town of 6000 people 1200 are over 50 years
old and 2000 are female. It is known that 30% of the
females are over 50 years. What is the probability that
a random chosen individual from the town is either
female or over 50 years?
[Ans.: 13/30]
12) A Chartered Accountant applies for a job in two
firms X and Y. He estimates that the probability of his
being selected in firm X is 0.7, and being rejected at Y is
0.5 and the probability of at least one of his application
being rejected is 0.6. What is the probability be
selected at least one of the firms?
[Ans.: 0.8]
13) If two dice are thrown, what is the probability that
the sum of the numbers on the dice is
(i) greater than 8, and (ii) neither 7 nor 11?
[Ans.: (i) 5/18, (ii) 7/9]
14) Suppose that 55% of all adults consume coffee,
45% regularly consume carbonated soda, and 70%
regularly consume at least one of these two products.
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected
adult regularly consume both coffee and soda?
[Ans 0.3]
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b) What is the probability that a randomly selected

adult doesn’t regularly consume at least one of them?
[Ans 0.7]
15) The three most popular options on a certain type
of new car are a built – in GPS(A), a sunroof(B) and an
automatic transmission(C). If 40% of all purchasers
request A, 55% request B, 70% request C, 63% request
A or B, 77% request A or C, 80% request B or C, and
85% request A or B or C, then determine the
probability of the following events:
a) The next purchaser will request at least one of the
three options. [Ans .85]
b) The next purchaser will select none of the three
options. [Ans .15]
c) The next purchaser will request only an automatic
transmission and not either of the other two options.
[Ans 0.22]
d) The next purchaser will select exactly one of these
three options. [Ans .38]

16) Consider the two events A and B with P(A)=0.4 and

P(B)= 0.7. Determine the maximum and minimum
Possible Values of P(A∩ B) and condition under which
each of the value attained.
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[Ans 0.4, 0.1]

17) If n letters are placed at random in n envelops,
what is the probability that exactly n-1 letters will be
placed in the correct envelops?
[Ans 0]
18) Let A, B and C are the Arbitrary events. Show that
the probability that exactly one of these three events
will be
P(A) + P(B) +P(C) - 2P(A∩B) – 2P(A∩C) - 2P(B∩C) +3
P(A∩ B ∩ C)

19) An insurance company offers four different

deductible levels – none, low, medium and high – for
its homeowner’s policyholders and three different
levels – low, medium and high – for its automobile
policyholders. The accompanying table gives
proportions for the various categories of policyholders
who have both types of insurance.

Homeowner’s
N L M H
L 0.04 0.O6 0.05 0.03
M 0.07 0.10 0.20 0.10
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H 0.02 0.03 0.15 0.15

Suppose an individual having both types of policies is
randomly selected.
a) What is the probability that the individual has a
medium auto deductible and a high homeowner’s
deductible? [Ans 0.10]
b) What is the probability that the individual has a low
auto deductible? A low homeowner’s deductible?
[Ans 0.18, 0.19]
c) What is the probability that the individual is in the
same category for both auto and homeowner’s
deductibles? [Ans 0.41]
d) Based on your answer in part (c), what is the
probability that the two categories are different?
[Ans 0.59]
e) What is the probability that the individual has at
least one low deductible level ?
[Ans 0.31]
f) Using the answer in part (c), what is the probability
that neither deductible level is low?
[Ans 0.69]
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20) If A, B and C are mutually exclusive and exhaustive

events, and P(A)= ½ P(B) and P(B)=2/3 P(C) ),find P(A),
P(B), P(C)
[Ans.: 1/6, 1/3, 1/2]
21) A box contains six 40 – W bulbs, five 60 – W bulbs,
and four 75 – W bulbs. If bulbs are selected one by one
in random order, what is the probability that at least
two bulbs must be selected to obtain one that is rated
75 – W?
[Ans 0.6]
22) Suppose that a Balanced dice is rolled three times
and let Xi denotes the number that appear on the ith
roll (i= 1 ,2 ,3 ). Evaluate P(X1>X2>X3)
[Ans 20/216]
23) An Individual is presented with three different
glasses of cola , labeled C, D and P. He is asked to taste
all three and then list them in order of preference.
Suppose the same cola has actually been put into all
three glasses.
a. What are the simple events in the ranking
experiment, and what probability you assign to each
one? [Ans 1/6]
b. What is the probability that C is ranked first?
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[Ans 0.333]
c. What is the probability that C is ranked first and D is
ranked last? [Ans 1/6]

24) Consider the type of clothes dryer (gas or electrical)

purchased by each of the five different customers at a
certain store.
a. If the probability that at most one of these
purchases an electrical dryer is 0.428. What is the
probability that at least two purchaser an electrical
dryer? [Ans .572]
b. If P (all five purchases gas)= 0.116 and P( all five
purchases electric)=0.005, What is the probability that
at least one of each type is purchased?
[Ans 0.879]
COMBINATION AND PERMUTATION
25) A bag contains 3 white, 4 black & 5 red balls. Two
balls are drawn one by one. Find the probability that:
i) Both are red
ii) First is red & second is black,
iii) One is red & other is black
[Ans.: (i) 5/33, (ii) 5/33, (iii) 10/33]
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26) A box of nine golf gloves contains two left - handed

and seven rights - handed gloves
(i) If two, gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that (a)
both gloves are right handed and (b) one is left -
handed and one right - handed glove?
(ii) If three gloves are selected without replacement,
what is the probability that all of them are left -
handed?
(iii) If two gloves are randomly selected with
replacement, what is the probability that they-would
both be right - handed?
[Ans.: (i) 7/12, 7/18; (ii) 0; (iii) 49/81]
27) A box in a certain supply room contains four 40-w
light-bulb, five 60-w bulb and six 75-w bulbs. Suppose
that three bulbs are randomly selected.
a) What is the probability that exactly two of the
selected bulb are rated 75-w?
b) What is the probability that one bulb of each type is
selected?
c) What is the probability that all three of the selected
bulbs have the same rating?
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d) Suppose now that bulb are to be selected one by

one until a 75-w bulb is found. What is probability that
it is necessary to examine at least six bulb.
[Ans : .2967, .0747, .2637, .0421]
28) In a lot of 12 microwave ovens, there are 3
defective units. A person has ordered 4 of these units
and since each is identically packed, the selection will
be random. What is the probability that
(i) all units are good?, (ii) exactly 3 units are good?, (iii)
at least 2 units are good?:
[Ans.: (i) 14/55, (ii) 28/55, (iii) 54/55]
29) A bag contains 5 white and 8 red balls. two
drawings of 3 balls each are made such that:
a. The ball are replaced before the second trial,
b. The balls are not replaced before the second trial.
Find the probability that the first drawing gives 3 white
and the second draw gives 3 red-balls in each case.
[Ans.: (a) 140/20449 (b) 7/429]
30) A committee of four has to be formed from among
3 economists, 4 engineers, 2 statisticians and 1 doctor.
(i) What is the probability that each of the four
professions is represented on the committee?
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(ii) What is the probability that the committee consists

of the doctor and at least one economist?
[Ans.: (i) 4/35; (ii) 32/105]
31) A word consists of 9 letters, 5 consonants and 4
vowels. Three letters are chosen at random. What is
the probability that more than one vowel will be
selected? [Ans.: 17/42]

32) A production facility employs 20 workers on the

day shift, 15 workers on the swing shift, and 10
workers on the graveyard shift. A quality control
consultant is to select 6 of these workers for – in depth
interviews. Suppose the selection is made in such a
way that any particular group of 6 workers has the
same chance of being selected as does any other
group.
A. How many selections results in all 6 workers coming
from the day shift? What is the probability that all 6
selected workers will be from the day shift?
[Ans : 38760, 0.0048]
B. What is the probability that all 6 selected workers
will be from the same shift? [Ans 0.0054]
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C. What is the probability that at least two different

shifts will be represented among the selected workers?
[Ans .9946]
D. What is the probability that at least one of the shifts
will be unrepresented in the sample of workers?
[Ans 0.2285]
33) The computer of six faculty members in a certain
department are to be replaced. Two of the faculty
members have selected laptop machine and other four
have chosen desktop machines. Suppose that only two
computers to be set up are randomly selected from the
six (implyfying 15 equally likely)
a) What is the probability that both selected setups are
for laptop computer?
b) What is the probability that both setup are desktop
machines.
c) What is the probability that at least one selected
setup is for a desktop computers.
d) What is the probability that at least one computer of
each type is chosen.
[Ans. .067, .40, .933, .533]
34) A box contains 30 red balls, 30 white Balls, and 30
blue balls. If 10 balls are selected at random, without
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replacement what is the probability that at least one

colour will be missing from the selection?
(60) (30)
[ Ans 3(1090) −3(1090) ]
10 10
35) Fifteen telephones have just have been received at
an authorized service center. Five of these telephone is
cellular, five are cordless and the other five are corded
phones. Suppose that these component are randomly
allocated the number 1, 2, 3….15 to establish the order
in which they will be serviced.
a. What is the probability that all cordless phones are
among the first ten to be serviced? [Ans .0839]
b. What is the probability that after servicing ten of
these phones, phones of only two of the three types
remain to be serviced? [Ans .2498]
c. What is the probability that two phones of each
type are among the first six serviced? [Ans .1998]
36) A car with 6 sparkplugs is known to have 2
malfunctioning ones. If 2 plugs are pulled out at
random, what is the probability of getting at least one
malfunctioning plug? [Ans 0.6]
37) A bag contains N balls of which a are red. Two balls
are chosen randomly from the bag without
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replacement. Let p1 denote the probability that the

first ball is red and p2 the probability that 2nd ball is
red. Show that p1=p2
38) Your teacher knows 6 jokes and in each class tells 2
jokes; each joke has an equal chance of being selected.
What is the probability that, in a given lecture, at least
1 joke is told that was not told in the previous class?
[Ans 28/30]
39) If 12 Balls are thrown at random into 20 boxes ,
What is the probability that no box will receive more
than one ball? [Ans 20!/8!x2012]
40) An Elevator in a building starts with five passengers
and Stop at seventh floors. If every Passenger is equally
likely to get off at each floor and all the passengers
leave independently of each other , what is the
probability that no two passenger will get off the same
floor?
[Ans 360/2401]
41) Suppose that three runners from team A and three
runners from team B participate in a race. If all six
runners have equal ability and there are no ties, what
is the probability that three runners from team B will
finish fourth, fifth and sixth? [Ans 1/20]
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42) There are total K peoples, Find the probability that

(i) K person have a different birthday (ii) At least two of
the people will have the same birthday?
[Ans (i) {365x364x.......x(365-k+1)/365k },(ii) 1-(i) ]

43) If k people seated in a random manner in a row

containing n seats (n>k), What is the probability that
people will occupy k adjacent seats in the row ?
[Ans{(n-k+1)!k!/n!]
44) Suppose that 35 people are divided in a random
manner into two teams in such a way that one team
contains 10 people and the other team contains 25
people. what is the probability that two particular
people A and B will be on the same team? [Ans .5798]
45) Suppose that 100 mathematic Students are divided
into five classes, each containing 20 Students and that
awards are given to 10 of these students. If each
student is equally likely to receive an award, What is
the probability that exactly two students in each class
will receive award. [Ans .0143]
46) If seven balanced dice are rolled , what is the
probability that each of the six different numbers will
appear at least once ? [Ans 7!/2(6)6]
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47) Suppose that a deck of 52 cards contains 13 red

cards, 13 yellow ,13 blue cards ,13 blue cards and 13
green cards. If the 52 cards are distributed in a random
manner among four players in such a way that each
player receives 13 cards, what is the probability that
each player receive 13 cards of the same color ?
[Ans 4!(13!)4)/52!}
48) If three letters are placed at random in three
envelops, what is the probability that exactly one letter
will be placed in the correct envelops? [Ans 1/2]
49) Individual A has a circle of five close friends (B, C,
D, E and F). A has heard a certain rumor from outside
the circle and has invited the five friends to a party to
circulate the rumor to begin, A Selects one of the five
at random and tells the rumor to the chosen Individual.
That individual then selects at random one of the four
remaining individuals and repeat the rumor.
Continuing, a new Individual is selected from those not
already having heard the rumor by the individual who
has just heard it, until everyone has been told.
a. What is the probability that the rumor is repeated in
the order B, C, D, E and F. [Ans 1/120]
b. What is the probability that F is the third person at
the party to be told the rumor? [Ans 0.2]
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c. What is the probability that F is the last person to

hear the rumor? [Ans 0.2]
d. If at each stage the person who currently has the
rumor does not know who has already heard it and
selects the next recipient at random from all five
possible individuals, what is the probability that F has
still not heard the rumor after it has been told ten
times at the party ? [Ans (4/5)10]

50) 25 books are placed at random on a shelf. The

probability that a particular pair of books shall be
always together? [Ans 2/25]
51) Suppose that each person out of a group of 4
friends is randomly assigned to one of the 6 classes.
What is the probability that no class has more than one
person from this group? [Ans 5/18]
52) The nine digits 1, 2, … 9 are arranged in random
order to form a nine digit number, which uses each
digit exactly once. Find the probability that 1, 2 and 3
appear as neighbor in the increasing order? [Ans 1/72]

53) Twelve balls are distributed at random among

three boxes. what is probability that the first box will
contain 3 balls? [Ans (12c3x29/312]
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54) A stereo store is offering a special price on a

complete set of components (receiver, compact disc
player, speakers, and turntable). A purchaser is offered
a choice of manufacturer for each component:
• Receiver: Kenwood, Onkyo, pioneer, Sony,
Sherwood
• Compact disc player: Onkyo, pioneer, Sony,
Technics
• Speakers: Boston, Infinity, Polk
• Turntable: Onkyo, Sony, Teac, Technics
A switchboard display in the store allows a customer to
hook together any selection of components (consisting
of one of each type). Use the product rules to answer
the following questions:
a) In how many ways can one component of each type
be selected? [Ans 240]
b) In how many ways can components be selected if
both the receiver and the compact disc players are to be
Sony? [Ans 12]
c) In how many ways can components be selected if
none is to be Sony? [Ans 108]
d) In how many ways can a selection be made if at least
one Sony component is to be included?
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[Ans 132]
e) If someone flips switches on the selection in a
completely random fashion, what is the probability that
the system selected contains at least one Sony
component? Exactly one Sony component?
[Ans .55, 0.413]

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
55) Events A and B are such that P(A) =½ , P(B) = 7/12
and P(not A or Not B) = ¼ . State whether A & B are (i)
mutually exclusive, (ii) Independent [Ans. no, no]
56) Let A and B be two independent events. The
probability of their simultaneous occurrence is 1/8 and
this- probability that neither occurs is 3/8. Find P (A)
and P(B). [Ans.: 1/4, 1/2]
57) Anil and Rajesh appear in an interview for two
vacancies. The probability of Anil's selection is 1/3 and
that of Rajesh's selection is 1/5. Find the probability
that
(a) None will be selected;
(b) Only one of them will be selected;
(c) Both of them will be selected;
(d) At least one of them will be selected
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[Ans.: (a) 8/15, (b) 2/5, (c) 1/15, (d) 7/15]

58) The odds against A solving a problem are 10 to 7
and the odds in favour of B solving the problem are 15
to 12. What is the probability that, if both of them try,
the problem will be solved? [Ans.: 113/153]
59) A husband and a wife appear in an interview for
two vacancies in the same post. The probability of
husband's selection is 1/7 and that of wife's selection is
1/5. What is the probability that
(a) both of them will be selected; (b) only one of them
will be selected, and (c) none of them will be selected.
[Ans.: (a) 0.029, (b) 0.286, (c) 0.686]
60) A certain team wins with probability 0.7, loses with
probability 0.2 and ties with probability 0.1. The team
plays three games. Find the probability that the team
wins at least two of the games, but not lose.
[Ans.: 0.49]
61) Three critics review a book. Odds in favor of the
book are 5:2, 4:3 and 3:4 respectively for the three
critics. Find the probability that the majority is in favor
of the book. [Ans.: 209/343]
62) 70% of all vehicles examined at a certain emissions
inspection station pass the inspection. Assuming that
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successive vehicles pass or fail independently of one

another, calculate the following probabilities:
a) P (all of the next three vehicles inspected pass)
[Ans 0.343]
b) P (at least one of the next three inspected fails)
[Ans 0.657]
c) P (exactly one of the next three inspected passes)
[Ans 0.189]
d) P (at most one of the next three vehicles inspected
passes) [Ans 0.216]
63) A machine operates if all its three components
function. The probability that the first component fails
during the year is 0.14, the second component fails is
0.10 and the third component fails is 0.05. What is the
probability that the machine will fail during the year?
[Ans.: 0.2647]
64) Suppose that 10000 tickets are sold in one lottery
and 5000 tickets are sold in another lottery. if a person
owns 100 tickets in each lottery, what is the probability
that she will win at least one first prize.
[Ans .0298]
65) Consider an experiment in which a fair coin is
tossed until a head is obtained for the first time. if this
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experiment is performed three times. what is the

probability that exactly the same number of tosses will
be required for each of the three performances?
[Ans 1/7]
66) Two boys A and B throw a ball at target. Suppose
that A will hit the Target on any throw is 1/3 and the
probability that B will hit the target on any throw is ¼.
Suppose that A will throw the first and the two boys
take turn throwing. Determine the probability the
target will be hit for the first time on the third throw of
boy A. [Ans 1/12]
67) Suppose that A, B and C are three events such that
A and B are disjoint events, A and C are independent,
and B and C are independent. Suppose also that 4P(A)
=2P(B) =P(C)>0 and P(AUBUC) =5P(A). Determine the
Value of P(A) [Ans 1/6]
68) Suppose that three red balls and three white balls
are thrown at random into three boxes and that
throws are independent. What is the probability that
each box contains one red and one white ball?
[Ans (2/9)2]

69) A boiler has five identical relief valves. The

probability that any particular valves will open on
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demand is 0.95. Assuming independent operation of

the valves, Calculate P (at least one valves open) and P
(at least one valve fails to open)? [Ans .99999, .2262 ]
70) Two pumps connected in parallel fail
independently of one another on any given day. the
probability that only the older pump will fail is 0.10.
and the probability that only the newer pump will fail
on any given day is 0.05. what is the probability that
both the pumping system will fail on any given day? [
Ans .0059]
71) One satellite is scheduled to be launched from
India and another is launching from Nepal. let A
denotes the event that the Nepal launches goes of the
schedule and B be the events that India Launch goes
off the scheduled. If A and B are independent events
with P(A) > P(B), P(AUB)= 0.626, P(AՌB) =0.144.
Determine the value of P(A) and P(B). [Ans 0.45, 0.32]
72) Let X be the set of positive integers denoting the
number of tries it takes the Indian cricket team to win
the world cup. The team has equal odds for winning or
losing any match. What is the probability that they will
win in odd number of matches? [Ans 2/3]
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CONDITIONAL PROBABAILITY
73) For any two events A and B with P(B)>0,
Prove that P(A’/B) =1 – P(A/B)
74) For any three Events A, B and D Such that P(D)>0,
Prove that P(AUB|D)= P(A|D) +P(B|D) -P(A∩ B|D).
75) Suppose that A and B are the events such that
P(A)=1/3, P(B)=1/5 , P(A/B)+P(B/A)=2/3..find P(A’UB’)
[Ans 11/12]
76) Suppose A and B are Independent Events Such that
P(A)=1/3 and P(B)>0. What is the value of P(AUB’/B).
[Ans P(A)]

77) A and B are two events such that P(A) = ¼ ,

P(B)=1/3 , (PA∪ B) = ½ . Hence, P(B/A) = 1/5. Comment.
[Ans.: False]
78) Among the examinees in an examination 30%, 35%
and 45% failed in Statistics, in Mathematics and in at
least one of the subjects respectively. An examinee is
selected at random. Find the probabilities that
(i) He failed in Mathematics only;
(ii) He passed in Statistics If it is known that he failed in
Mathematics. [Ans.: (i) 0.15, (ii) 3/7]
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79) The probability that a trainee will remain with a

company is 0.8. The probability that an employee earns
more than Rs. 20,000 per year is 0.4. The probability
that an employee who was a trainee remained with the
company or who earns more than Rs. 20,000 per year
is 0.9. What is the probability that an employee earns
more than Rs. 20,000 per year given that he is a trainee
who stayed with the company? [Ans.: 3/8]
80) The probability that a person stopping at a petrol
pump will get his tyres checked is 0.12, the probability
that the will get his oil checked is 0.29 and the
probability that he will get both checked is 0.07.
(i) What is the probability that a person stopping at this
pump will have neither his tyres checked nor oil
checked?
(ii) Find the probability that a person, who has oil
checked, will also have his tyres checked.
[Ans.: (i) 0.66, (ii) 7/29]
81) A box of 100 gaskets contains 10 gaskets with type
A defect, 5 gaskets with type B defects and 2 gaskets
with both types of defect. Find the probabilities that:
(i) A gasket to be drawn has a type B defect under the
condition that it has a type A defect, and
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(ii) A gasket to be drawn has no type of defect under

the condition that it has no type A defect.
[Ans.: (i) 1/5, (ii) 87/90]
82) Two factories manufacture the same machine
parts. Each part is classified as having either 0, 1, 2 or 3
manufacturing defects. The joint probability for this is
given below:
Manufacturer Number of Defects
0 1 2 3
X 0.1250 0.0625 0.1875 0.1250
Y 0.0625 0.0625 0.1250 0.2500

(i) A part is observed to have no defect. What is the

probability that it was produced by X manufacturer?
(ii) A part is known to have been produced by
manufacturer X. What is the probability that the part
has no defects?
(iii) A part is known to have two or more defects. What
is the probability that it was manufactured by X? (iv) A
part is known to have one or more defects. What is the
probability that it was manufactured by Y?
[Ans.:(i) 0.67, (ii) 0.25, (iii) 0.455, (iv) 0.5385]
27 SIG CLASSES

83) Each Contestant on a quiz show is asked to specify

one of the six possible categories from which question
will be asked? Suppose P(contestant request quiz i)=1/6
and the successive contestant choose their category
independently of one another .if there are three
contestant on a particular show selects different
categories , what is the probability that exactly one has
selected category 1 ? [Ans 0.5]
84) Suppose that we classify all households into one of
two states rich and poor. The probability of a particular
generation being in either of these states depends only
on states in which their parents were. If a parent is poors
today, their child is likely to be poor with a probability
0.7. If a parent is rich today, their child is likely to be
poor with probability 0.6. What is the probability that
the great grandson of a poor man will be poor?
[Ans 0.67]
85) An oil exploration company currently has two
projects, one in the asia and other in Europe. Let A be
the events that Asian Project is successful and B be the
event that European project is successful. Suppose A
and B are independent events with P(A)= 0.4, P(B)=0.7.
a. If the asian project is not successful, what is the
probability that the European project is also not
successful? [Ans 0.3]
28 SIG CLASSES

b. What is the probability that at least one of the two

projects will be successful? [Ans 0.82]
c. Given that at least one of the two projects is
successful, what is the probability that only the Asian
Project is successful. [Ans 0.146]
86) Suppose A and B Are Independent Events Such that
P(A)=1/3 and P(B)>0. What is the value of P(AUB’/B).
[Ans P(A)]
BAYES THEOREM
87) In a bolt factory, machines A, B, C manufacture
respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their
output 5, 4, 2 per cent are known to be defective bolts.
A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found
to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was
manufactured by; (i) Machine A, (ii) Machine B or C.
[Ans.: (i) 0.36; (ii) 0.64]
88) If a machine is correctly set-up, it produces 90%
acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set up, it produces
only 40% acceptable items. Experience shows that 80%
of the set ups are correctly done.
(i) If after a certain set up, out of the first two items
produced, first is found to be acceptable and second
unacceptable, what is the probability that the machine
is correctly set-up?
29 SIG CLASSES

(ii) If the machine produced first two items acceptable,

what is the probability that the machine is correctly set-
up?
[Ans.: (i) 0.6, (ii) 0.953]
The results of an investigation by an expert on a fire
accident are summarized below:
(i) Probability (there could have been a short, circuit) =
0.8.
(ii) Prob. (LPG cylinder explosion) = 0.2.
(iii) Chance of fire accident is 30% given a short circuit
and 95% given an LPG explosion.
Based on these, what do you think is the most probable
cause of fire?
[Ans.: P(E1/X) = 24/43, P(E2/X) = 19/43; so s/circuit]
89) A man has five coins, one of which has two heads.
He randomly takes out a coin and tosses it three times:
i) What is the probability that it will fall head upward all
the limes?
ii) If it always falls head upward, what is the probability
that it is the coin with two heads?
[Ans.: (i) 0.3, (ii) 2/3]
30 SIG CLASSES

90) A Box contain three coins with a head on each side,

four coins with tail on each side and two fair coins, if one
of the nine coins selected at random and tossed once,
what is the probability that a head will be obtained?
[Ans 4/9]
91) A transmitter is sending a message by using a binary
code, namely a sequence of 0’s and 1’s. Each
transmitted bit (0 or 1) must pass through three relay to
reach the receiver. At each relay, the probability is 0.20
that the bit sent will be different from the bit received
(a reversal). Assume that the relays operate
independently of one another.
Transmitted → Relay 1 → Relay 2 → Relay 3 → Receiver
a. If a 1 is sent from the transmitter, what is the
probability that a 1 is sent by all three relays?
[Ans 0.512]
b. If a 1 is sent from the transmitter, what is the
probability that 1 is received by the receiver?
[Ans 0.608]
c. Suppose that 70 % of all bits sent from transmitter are
1’s. If a 1 is received by the receiver, what is the
probability that a 1 was sent? [Ans 0.7835]
92) A chemical engineer is interested in determining
whether a certain trace impurity is present in a product.
31 SIG CLASSES

An experience has a probability of 0.8 of detecting the

impurity if it is present. The probability of not detecting
the impurity if it is absent is 0.9. The prior probability of
the impurity being present and being absent are 0.4 and
0.6, respectively. Three Separate experiment result in
only two detections. what is the posterior probability
that the impurity is present?
[Ans 0.905]
93) Population of a city is 40% male and 60% female.
Suppose also that 50% of males and 30% of females in
the city smoke. The probability that a smoker in the city
is male? [Ans 10/19]
94) Consider a railway signaling system: a signal is
received by station A from the traffic control office and
then transmit it to station B. Suppose that the origin
(Traffic control office) signal can be yellow or red with
probability 4/5 and 1/5 respectively. The probability of
each station receiving the signal correctly from its
predecessor is ¾. If the signal received at station B is
yellow, then the probability that the original signal was
yellow? [Ans 20/23]
95) A physical therapist at Enormous State university
known that football team will play 40% of its games an
artificial turf for this season. He also knows that football
player’s chances of incurring a knee injury are 50%
32 SIG CLASSES

higher if he is playing on artificial truf instead of grass. If

player’s probability of knee injury on artificial turf is
0.42. What is the prob.
a) A randomly selected football player incurs a knee
injury.
b) A randomly selected football player with knee injury
incurred the injury playing on a grass? [Ans. .336, .5]
96) A Crime is committed by one of two suspects A and
B. Initially there is equal evidence against both of them.
In further investigation at the crime scene, it is found
that the guilty party had a blood type found in 10% of
the population. Suspect A does match this blood type,
whereas the blood type of type Suspect B is unknown,
given this new information, what is the probability that
A party is guilty? [Ans 10/11]

Miscellaneous
33 SIG CLASSES

1. Suppose that a balanced die is rolled repeatedly until

the same number appear on two successive rolls, and
Let X denotes the number of that are required.
Determine the value of P(X=x) for x= 2 , 3 ,……
[Ans- (5/6)x-2 (1/6) ]
2. A particular airline has 10 A.M flights from Chicago to
New York, Atlanta and Los Angeles. Let A denotes the
event that the New York flights is full and define Event
B and C analogously for the other two flights. Suppose
P(A)=0.6, P(B) = 0.5, P(C)=0.4 and three events are
independent. What is the probability that:
a. All three flights are full? That at least on flight is not
full? [Ans 0.12, 0.88]
b. Only the New York flight is full? that exactly one of
the three flights is full? [Ans 0.18, 0.38]
3. Three groups of workers contain 3 men and 1 woman,
2 men & 2 women & 1 man and 1 woman respectively.
One worker is selected at random from each group,
what is the probability that the group selected consists
of 1 man and 2 women.
[Ans.: 5/16]
4. A box has 10 red balls and 5 black balls. A ball is
selected from the box. If the ball is red, it is returned to
the box. If the ball is black, it and 2 additional black balls
34 SIG CLASSES

are added to the box. The probability that a second ball

selected from the box will be red?
[Ans 98/153]
5. A particular men’s competition has unlimited number
of rounds. In each round, every participant has to
complete a task. The probability of a participating
completing the task in a round is p. If a participant fail
to complete a task in a round, he is eliminated from the
competition. He participates in every round before
being eliminated. The competition begins with 3
participants. What is the probability that all 3
participants are eliminated in the same round?
[Ans- (1-p)3/ 1-p3]
6. Three married couples sit down at a round table at
which there are 6 chairs. All if thee possible seating
arrangements of the 6 people are equally likely. The
probability that each husband sits next to his wife? [Ans
2/15]
7. Each of 4 economists is asked to prescribe one of the
4 economic policies. Each economic is equally likely to
prescribe any of the 4 different policies. What is the
probability that each of the economists prescribes the
different policy? [Ans 3/32]
35 SIG CLASSES

8. There are 5 women on the platform of a train station.

The train that they are waiting for has 3 coaches and
each of them is equally likely to enter any coach. What
is the probability that they will enter the same coach?
[Ans 1/25]
9. ICICI Bank collects data on 10000 respondents. Out of
the 6800 men, 4200 have credit cards and out of the
3200 women, 2500 have credit cards. Out of the men
with credit cards, 1200 have unpaid balance, whereas
out of the women with credit cards, 1400 have unpaid
balance. What is the probability that an individual
selected at random is a man with no unpaid balance?
[Ans 0.56]
10. Amit has a box containing 6 red balls and 3 green
balls. Anita has a box containing 4 red balls and 5 green
balls. Amit randomly draws one ball from the box and
put it into Anita’s box. Now Anita randomly draws one
ball from her box. What is the probability that the balls
drawn by Amit & Anita were of different colors?
[Ans 7/15]
11. Two patients share a hospital room for 2 days.
Suppose that on any given day, a person independently
picks up a airborne infection with a probability of ¼. An
individual who is infected on the first day will certainly
36 SIG CLASSES

pass it to the other patient on the second day. Once

contracted, the infection stays for at least 2 days.
a. What is the probability that both patients have
contracted the infection by the end of the second day?
[Ans 121/256]
b. What is the probability that fewer than two patients
have the infection by the end of the second day?
[Ans 135/256]
12. A survey of asset ownership in poor household in
rural UP and Bihar found that 40% of the household own
a radio, 15% own a television & 60% owns a cycle. It also
found that 5% of the households own both radio and a
television, 26% own both a radio and a bicycle, 5% own
both a television and a bicycle and 1% all the three. If a
randomly selected poor household in these areas found
to own exactly one of these 3 assets, what is the
probability that it is a bicycle? [Ans 15/23]
13. Jai and Vijay are taking statistics. The exam has only
3 grades A, B and C. The probability that Jai gets a B is
0.3, the probability that Vijay gets a B is 0.4, the
probability that neither gets an A, but at least one gets
B is 0.1. What is the probability that neither gets a C but
at least one gets a B? [Ans 0.6]
37 SIG CLASSES

14. A numberX1, is chosen at random from the set (1, 2).

Then a numberX2 is chosen at random from the set (1,
X1 ). The probability that X1= 2, given that X2=1? [Ans
1/3]
15. Four taste testers are asked to independently rank
three different brands of chocolate (A, B, C). The
chocolate each tester likes best is given the rank 1, then
2 and then 3. After this, the assigned ranks for each of
the chocolates are summed across the testers.
Assuming the testers cannot really discriminate
between the chocolates, so that each is assigning her
rank at random. The probability that chocolate A
receives a total sum of 4? [Ans 1/81]
16. An insurance policy –holder can submit upto 5
claims. The probability that the policyholder submits
exactly n claims is pn, for n = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. If is known
a) The difference b/w pn and pn+1 is constant.
b) 40% of the policyholders submit 0 or 1 claim.
What is the probability that a policyholder submits 4 or
5 claims? [Ans 0.26]
17. A hospital determines that N, the number of
patients in a week, is a random variable with P[N=n]= 2-
n-1 n≥ 0. The hospital also determines that the number

of patients in a given week is independent of the

38 SIG CLASSES

number of patients in any other week. The probability

that there are exactly 7 patients during a two-week
period? [Ans 1/64]
18. A student is answering a multiple-choice
examination. Suppose a question has m possible
answers. The student knows the correct answer with
probability p . if the student knows the correct answer,
she picks it with probability 1: otherwise, she picks
randomly from the choices with probability 1/m each.
Give that the student picked the correct answer, the
probability that she knew the correct answer is
[Ans mp/[1 + (m – 1) p]
19. There are 4 married couples in a club. A 3-member
committee must be formed from among them, such
that no married couple is part of the committee. Find
the probability in which this committee can be formed ?
[Ans 4/7]
20. Suppose that 80% of all statisticians are shy,
whereas only 15% of all economists are shy. Suppose
also that 90% of the people at a large gathering are
economists and the other 10% are statisticians. If you
meet a shy person at random at the gathering, what is
the probability that the person is a statistician?
[Ans 80/215]
39 SIG CLASSES

21. Three Players A, B and C take turns Playing a game

as follows. A and B play in the first round. The winner
plays C in the second round, while the looser sits out.
The game continuing in the fashion, with the winner of
the current round playing the next round with the
person who sits out the current round. The Game end
ends if the players wins twice in succession; This player
declare the winner of the contest. For any of the rounds
assume that two players playing the round each have a
probability ½ of winning the rounds, regardless how the
past rounds were won or lost
a. The probability that A becomes the winner of the
contest? [Ans 5/14]
b. The probability that C becomes the winner of the
contest? [Ans 2/7]
c. The probability that the game continues indefinitely,
with no one winning twice in succession [Ans 0]
22. Mr. A and B are independently tossing a coin. Their
coins have a probability 0.25 coming head. After each of
them tossing the coin twice, we see a total of two heads.
What is the probability that Mr. A had exactly one head?
[Ans 2/3]
23. Consider the square with vertices A, B, C and D. Call
a pair of vertices in the square adjacent if they are
connected by an edge in the figure. You may have four
40 SIG CLASSES

color RED, BLUE, GREEN, YELLOW. Find the probability

of coloring the vertices A,B, C D such that no adjacent
vertices share the same color? [Ans : 0.328125]
24. A slip of paper is given to person A, who marks it
with either (+) or (-). The probability of her writing (+) is
1/3. Then, the slip is passed sequentially to B, C and D.
Each of them either changes the sign on the slip with
probability 2/3 or leaves it as it is with probability 1/3.
a. Compute the probability that the final sign is (+) if A
wrote (+). [Ans 13/27]
b. Compute the probability that the final sign is (+) if A
wrote (-). [Ans 14/27]
c. Compute the probability that A wrote (+) if the final
sign is (+). [Ans 13/41]
25. A box contains four red balls, five white balls and six
blue balls. Suppose that three balls are drawn randomly
a. What is the probability three of the selected balls are
of the same color? [Ans 34/455]
b. If drawing a blue, what is the probability that at least
6 balls will be drawn to obtaining a success?
[Ans 0.0421]
41 SIG CLASSES

26. Suppose a box contain five biased coins with

probability of head as 0, 1/4, 1/2, 3/4, 1 respectively.
One coin is selected at random and tossed twice.
a. What is the probability of obtaining tail on the first
toss? [Ans 0.5]
b. If a tail is obtained on first toss, what is the
probability that another tail will be obtained on the
second toss? [Ans 0.75]
27. The letters of the word COCHIN are permuted and
all the permutations are arranged lexicographically (i.e.,
in alphabetical order as in an English dictionary). Find
the probability of words that appear before the word
COCHIN is [Ans 96/360]
28. For any positive integers k, ℓ with k ≥ ℓ, let C(k, ℓ)
denote the number of ways in which ℓ distinct objects
can be chosen from k objects. Consider n ≥ 3 distinct
points on a circle and join every pair of points by a line
segment. If we pick three of these line segments
uniformly at random, what is the probability that we
choose a triangle?
[Ans C(n,3)/ C(C(n,2),3)]