The Color Revolution Model-Compressed-2
The Color Revolution Model-Compressed-2
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CONTENTS
Purpose
I Model
II Description of Variables
1. Ideology
2. Finance
3. Social
a) Core
b) Cohort
c) Civilians
4. Training
5. Information
a) Social Media
b) Propaganda Materials
6. Media
III Unholy Triangle
IV Explanation of m Factor Interactions
V ‘The Event’
VI Physical Infrastructure
1. Physical Infrastructure 1
a) ‘Occupy’ Activities
b) Building a Crowd
c) Marches and Protests
d) Role of Social Media in Physical Infrastructure 1
i) Social Media as Security
ii) Social Media as Promotion
e) Protesters as Human Shields of the Movement
2. Physical Infrastructure 2
Conclusion
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Purpose:
Color Revolutions are one of the newest models of state destabilization. They allow external
actors to plead plausible deniability when accused of illegally interfering in the domestic affairs
of a sovereign state, and their mass mobilization of ‘people power’ renders them highly
effective in the eyes of the global media. Additionally, the conglomeration of large numbers of
civilians protesting the government also increases pressure on that said government and limits
its options in effectively dealing with the ongoing destabilization. All Color Revolutions closely
follow the same template, and understanding the nature of this applied tactic of destabilization
will allow states to craft suitable countermeasures against it.
I Model
Color Revolutions are formed through a complex interaction of many factors however, they can
be subdivided into several primary infrastructural categories:
§ Ideology
§ Finance
§ Social
§ Training
§ Information
§ Media
These factors interact with one another in a specific way in a five-tiered hierarchy:
The interplay of the above factors creates a Movement (m) that combines with two other
variables in order to produce a Color Revolution:
m + e + p = R
This diagram shows the Network in previous Color Revolutions in Serbia, Georgia,
Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
II Description of Variables
This section will detail the specific contributing factors that define each of the variables.
1. Ideology
Ideology is the central focus of any change within the world, and it is the guiding idea that
motivates all of the other factors affecting a Color Revolution. Without ideology, everything that
follows is empty and devoid of meaning and purpose.
The traditional ideology motivating all Color Revolutions is “Liberal Democracy”, and it seeks
to ‘free’ targeted states from perceived anti-Liberal Democratic (non-Western) governments.
Where the above is perceived as good while being Patriotic is bad. This is all by design.
But this isn’t a new phenomenon. It is psychological warfare, think what we think or else. It is
under the guise of anti-fascism through the restriction of free speech and faux outrage.
The state (and society as a whole) must combat a part of itself that is ‘rising up’ against the
status quo, leading to a conflict of interest and a social civil war. Depending upon the level of
provocation that the pro-Liberal Democratic protesters initiate, as well as instances of
mismanagement by the state in dealing with this social uprising, the social civil war may
eventually turn violent and briefly resemble an actual civil war. Ie: Portland, Seattle, Minnesota,
Chicago, Atlanta, etc.
This is especially so if the protesters have been armed by forces outside of the country, and if
they decide to attack the security services tasked with dispersing the Color Revolution’s
physical manifestations.
Ideology is thus the initiator of all Color Revolutions. It presents an opposite form of
development for a domestic society, and it motivates sympathetic segments of the population
to engage in tangible demonstrations to demand change. In the current space we are seeing a
Neo/Cultural Marxism take hold.
It will later be seen that the vast majority of these active protesters may not even be aware that
their activities are being orchestrated by a higher power (NGO, foreign government). Rather,
most of them, as a result of a heavy-handed information campaign promoting the destabilizing
ideology, have truly been led to believe that their actions are spontaneous and ‘natural’ or as
they like to say ‘grassroots’. That they represent the inevitable ‘progress’ that all areas of the
world are bound to experience sooner or later.
The ideology of the individual over the collective (the social aspect of Liberal-Democracy)
empowers each and every protester to feel that they are making a unique and significant
impact in bringing about this change.
2. Finance
Any ideology needs to have a financial infrastructure in order to facilitate its permeation of a
society. Money lubricates society and provides additional means for spreading influence.
Unless there is a strong level of pre-existing support for the penetrating ideology within the
targeted country, then the initial capital will likely come from abroad (the host state[s]
promoting the ideology). This was the case with the first wave of Color Revolutions and the
Arab Spring. Foreign financial backers provided the capital needed to keep the fledgling
Movements growing in their early stages.
Even if the outside ideological influence builds its own social infrastructure without resorting
to financial means, that social variable will be severely limited in its outreach and effectiveness
if it does not have a solid financial basis backing its promotional activities and training.
There are so many different “Charities”, Organizations, Councils, Think Tanks, etc. like Open
Society but this is a glimpse at their 2020 US only budget below.
Finance is the backbone of the entire Color Revolution. It transforms the ideas of the social
Movement into tangible action (physical infrastructure), and it provides a ‘nest’ for ideological
nurturing. Such nests are various pro-democracy and human rights (as defined by the West)
institutions and organizations.
Most commonly, they may misleadingly be referred to as NGOs, even if they do have a direct
link to a foreign government or elements of the institutional political opposition. Such
institutions and centers need money in order to operate, and this brings about the critical
importance of having a financial infrastructure in place.
The financial infrastructure must continuously pump money into its endeavors, as any halt
(however brief) will directly affect the effectiveness of its on-the-ground and cyber operations.
Grants from established institutions and foreign governments can provide the initial start-up
capital to create a domestic penetrating institution/organization within the targeted state, but
in the future, proper training will teach activists how to raise funds on their own.
Fundraising works to provide a certain level of financial self-sufficiency that achieves three
aims:
1) Limit the negative impact that any halt in foreign financing would create
2) Create a domestic financial network that can evade the watchful government eye over
international money transfers and the illegal smuggling of cash between borders. This is
the biggest, and most blatant, example of money laundering ever known.
a. Payments flow down through pre-paid credit cards, GoFundme Campaigns, Cash,
Bitcoin and all alternate services ie: PayPal, Venmo, Western Union, CashApp,
etc.
The tangled web:
Finance allows the Color Revolution to firmly establish itself in society, as well as disseminate
its ideas throughout. The more finance, the greater the number of institutions/organizations
and the people that they employ. Taken in combination with Social Infrastructure, it is directly
supported by Ideology.
3. Social
This type of infrastructure deals with the actual people that are involved in the Color
Revolution, and it is defined through institutions/organizations. It is the Revolution’s direct
engine of engagement. Prior to ‘The Event’, this can be divided into three levels:
1) Core (Vanguard)
2) Cohorts (Workers)
3) Civilians (Sympathizers)
‘The Event’ leads to all three of these levels coalescing into a singular unit, thereby giving the
Color Revolution the impression of being a unified grassroots initiative. It is argued that the
Social Infrastructure is very hierarchical, and that a small cabal of vanguard individuals
controls the entire Movement. This fact is usually lost not only on the outside observer, but also
among the civilian sympathizers as well, however, it is extremely important to acknowledge
and understand in order to comprehend the organization of the Social Infrastructure.
3a) Core
These individuals are the vanguard of the Color Revolution. They are the people who control
the institutions/organizations that are set in bringing about the Liberal-Democratic change.
They are highly trained and maintain direct contact with the external patron (ideological
and/or financial). The core constitutes a small amount of activists who are dedicated to the
cause. In the sense that they are dead-set against the existing status quo and actively seek to
disrupt it, they can be defined as ‘ideological extremists’. They are the most powerful people
within the targeted country, and when the decision is made to initiate the Color Revolution,
they may either prominently deliver motivating speeches to the public in favor of it, or they
may continue their shadow role in organizing the Movement. The capture or compromise of a
Core individual severely offsets the organizational effectiveness of the Color Revolution.
3b) Cohorts
These people comprise the workers that are positioned below the Core. They carry out
administrative or recruiting tasks under the employ of the institution/organization. The
Cohorts are the ‘face’ of the organization that most civilians will initially come into contact
with. They also perform most of the work for the institution/organization, thereby making
them the labor backbone. Cohorts are dedicated to the cause, but they have yet to prove their
absolute loyalty and enter into the elite Core. All Cohorts aspire to enter the Core, hence their
dedicated activism and public demonstrations in favor of their ideology. Seeing as how the
individual Cohort is not as integral to the Movement as a Core member is, they are easily
disposable and replaced by the organization if need be (i.e. they are ordered into provocative
publicized actions and subsequently arrested). A large number of Cohorts are powerful and
valuable to the institution/organization, a single Cohort is nothing more than a pawn.
3c) Civilians
The Civilians are the regular citizens who the Cohorts come into contact with. They enter into
the Social Infrastructure only when they become sympathizers to the cause. Civilians may or
may not enter into the Physical Infrastructure (i.e. participate in marches of solidarity with the
Color Revolution), but when they do, they provide a valuable soft power advantage. Media
footage of thousands of civilians partaking in a Color Revolution rally may influence other
civilians to also take part in such activities.
As with the Cohorts, a single Civilian is a pawn, but large amounts of them are a ‘weapon’.
As the Social Infrastructure builds upon itself and adds new members, it will also increase the
funds available to the institution/organization through the Cohorts’ fundraising activities.
4. Training
Training is indispensable to any Color Revolution, as it forms the third part of the Unholy
Triangle (to be explained later). This level of Infrastructure enhances the capabilities of its
Finance, Social, and Information counterparts:
Social: Cohorts learn how to successfully conduct outreach activities to increase their
ranks and gather more Civilian sympathizers.
Information: Cohorts learn how to create better websites, craft more effective
promotional materials, and exploit social media
Training can either take place within the country or outside. The Core may be trained outside,
whereas the Cohorts will likely be trained inside the country by the Core. It is important for the
institution/organization to establish plausible deniability in terms of foreign involvement
otherwise their domestic operations will be discredited. This makes it more probable that the
elite Core may do the traveling, while the many Cohorts remain within the country for their
training.
Training can either be in-person or virtual. In the event that it dangerous or suspicious for the
Core to leave the country for training, it will be conducted via the internet. However, the most
effective training occurs in person, and online ‘tutorials’ are no substitute for face-to-face
interaction between the Core and their sponsors. It may occur that the sponsors send a training
representative into the target country to conduct training under such circumstances, although
such a move is risky for the sponsor. If caught red-handed, both the sponsor and the
institute/organization will lose credibility among the domestic audience, thereby mitigating
many of their previous gains.
5. Information
This level of infrastructure deals with ideological dissemination, and it is extremely important
in assisting with Social Infrastructure recruitment (Cohorts and Civilians). It has two primary
elements:
§ Social Media
§ Propaganda Materials
These elements are explained below.
5a) Social Media
Social Media is exploited to spread the Ideology and create a Social Network, which in turn will
either turn into Cohorts of Civilian sympathizers. Effective Social Media outreach by the
institution/organization will further the Color Revolution by immeasurable bounds. Civilians
will use the Social Media outlets to keep in touch with news and developments about the
Movement, and it will pose a challenge to the official media outlets supporting the
governmental establishment. In this way, successful Social Media skills have the end goal of
creating an alternative information outlet.
5b) Propaganda Materials
Propaganda Materials are integral in furthering the cause of the Movement and making it
appear larger than it is. Graffiti, leaflets strewn across side streets and posted on buildings, and
catchy slogans, logos, and colors can spread the Movement throughout the public psyche on a
new non-stop basis. It reminds even those Civilians that are not sympathizers of the Movement
that the underpinnings of a future Color Revolution exist and are present in their society. In
fact, these Civilians may then think that such a Movement is inevitable and has larger support
than it really does, making them follow a ‘bandwagon’ mentality of latching onto what they feel
will be the ‘winning side’.
Propaganda also simplifies the Movement’s message, makes it all-encompassing to each social
class (preferably), and creates easy-to-digest images and concepts for foreign and domestic
audiences.
6. Media
This level of Infrastructure is the culminating point of the Movement’s entire Infrastructure.
The Media can either be New (blogs, alternative news sites) or Traditional (TV, newspapers).
Finance, Social, Training, and Information Infrastructures come together to create this fifth and
final tier, and this level leads to mass dissemination throughout society.
Mockingbird 2.0:
It legitimizes the Ideology of the Movement, makes it seem reputable, and solidifies the
perception of a strong presence in society. Most importantly, it also has a prime aim of reaching
the international audience.
Doing so creates international (Western) legitimacy and prompts statements from leading
political figures, both within the country and abroad.
The domestic politicians that support the Movement will then have the explicit support of their
foreign sponsors, thereby helping to propel their political careers if the Color Revolution is
successful.
Both media platforms (New and Traditional) serve to recruit more Civilians who may have
been hesitant about joining the Movement, since they previously viewed it as fringe or unlikely
to succeed. The New Media can even pressure the Traditional Media to report on developments
concerning the Movement, especially if the Traditional Media is reluctant to do so for political
reasons. It may even occur that a rift develops between the New and Traditional Medias, with
the New Media on the side of the Movement, and the Traditional Media on the side of the
establishment.
Bloggers and ‘new journalists’ are at the forefront of the New Media, and their reporting is
instrumental in expanding the influence of pro-Movement New Media.
If the Traditional Media does report on the Movement (either as a result of New Media
pressure or via Movement-friendly outlets), this would make unaware Civilians cognizant of
the social civil war ahead of them and provoke a government counterstatement/media
response. The government, of course, will not be in favor of any Movement aimed at
overthrowing it, so it is compelled to publicly proclaim its opposition to it. This enables the
Movement to frame the events in a way that makes the government appear to be ‘suppressing’
the political opposition. Such accusations carry heavy weight in the Western arena of public
opinion and can serve to undermine the government’s support among on-the-fence civilians.
III Unholy Triangle
This is the term used to describe the interplay between the Finance, Social, and Training
Infrastructures. Each one complements the other, and taken together, they form the center of
the Movement’s power and influence. The Unholy Triangle is the most important interaction
that takes place within the Movement. The stronger each of the three units is, the stronger the
Movement itself will become. Conversely, if one part of the Unholy Triangle is weakened, the
rest of the Movement also becomes weak. This weakness will have consequences on the
Information and Media Infrastructures (the spawn of the Unholy Triangle), thereby
undermining the entire Color Revolution operation. Without effective Information and Media
outlets, the Movement will wither and eventually collapse.
Social Infrastructure is the most important part of the Unholy Triangle, since it directly affects
Tiers 2-5. Therefore, any negative developments in Finance and Training (on which Social is
dependent) would ripple through the entire Movement. Although Information also affects
Social, it only increases recruitment. Recruitment without quality is ineffective, and
institutions/organizations without funding do not operate.
IV Explanation of m Factor Interactions
Tier 1
Ideology - Finance: Justification for the entire project
Tier 2
Finance - Social: Provides funding for more Institutions/Organizations
Social - Finance: More Cohorts may lead to more activists conducting fundraising
Tier 3
Training - Finance: Teaches Cohorts fundraising activities
Training - Social: Increases the effectiveness of outreach activities, improves personnel quality
Tier 4
Finance - Information: Pays for better information campaigns and resources
Tier 5
Finance - Media: Pays for media coverage
V ‘The Event’
A Color Revolution can only be officially initiated after an ‘Event’. This Event must be
controversial and polarizing (or framed to be so), and it releases all of the Movement’s built-up
energy. The Movement physically manifests itself in the most public way possible, and all of its
parts operate to their maximum possible capacity. The Event is the ‘coming out’ for the
Movement, and it is the trigger for the Color Revolution.
The faux outrage machine kicks in and brings out the citizenry in droves.
Events are selectively exploited, and the Movement may ignore a certain event if it does not feel
that the Infrastructure necessary to successfully carry out the Color Revolution is adequate.
Therefore, it will wait until another Event arises, or it may work to manufacture or provoke an
Event. The Movement capitalizes upon an Event only after it has operated a successful
information campaign.
The Media Infrastructure may or may not be fully built by the time the decision is made to
exploit the Event, as this level is closely tied to the Event itself.
It may be that Media Infrastructure is not utilized until after the Event itself, in order to set the
stage and prepare the public psyche for the Color Revolution. It all depends on the situation
itself and the decision of the Movement and its sponsors.
Examples of Events are the following:
§ A rigged election
§ Sexism
§ Racism
§ Any other ‘ism
§ The jailing of an opposition leader
§ The signing of (or failure to sign) a controversial piece of legislation
§ A government crackdown against the opposition (protestors) or the imposition of
martial law
§ Declaring or being involved in an unpopular war, or unpopular policy decision
The above are but a few of the examples of what can constitute the Event. It is not important
that these events actually occur in fact or not. What is pivotal is how they are perceived,
framed, and narrated to the public at large. Allegations, not proof, of the above are what is most
important in creating the catalyst for an Event. It must always be remembered that the
Movement can provoke any of these events (or the perception that they had occurred).
VI Physical Infrastructure
The Event and the rolling out of Physical Infrastructure go hand in hand. There are two parts of
Physical Infrastructure:
1) People and their active physical engagement in support of the Color Revolution
1. Physical Infrastructure 1
The first part is deployed when the Core gives the decision for the Cohorts and Civilian
sympathizers to take to the streets to physically and publicly demonstrate their support of the
Color Revolution. The following are examples:
§ ‘Occupy’ Activities
§ Building a Crowd
§ Marches and Protests
Tent cities and stages are usually deployed in the occupied area, as the protesters dig in for a
prolonged stay. It is important for the selected area to be occupied 24/7, and a small cadre of
Core members are usually always present on the ground to direct the activities. Should the
government move against the protesters’ occupied area, then the arrest of Core members
present there could also be a trigger for increased protest and destabilization, especially if the
Core members are the official managers of a ‘pro-democracy’ institution/organization. Core
members and Cohorts also engage in direct outreach to participants, some of whom may simply
be interested bystanders that are curious about the events unfolding in the symbolic location.
This allows the Movement to expand the Physical and Social Infrastructure and build up more
Civilian sympathizers.
The HQ in the occupied area will commonly serve food and beverages to the Civilian
sympathizers. This is done for a dual purpose. First, it maintains a 24/7 presence in the
location, and secondly, it also attracts more possible Civilian sympathizers. By showing that
they are taking care of the Civilian sympathizers, the Movement increases its soft power and
appeal among the population. The giving of food and beverages also helps to build a crowd to
attend the occupation and other protest events.
The Movement will advertise the occupy events in order to increase the awareness of the
population. The Core will call upon their Media Infrastructure contacts (in the New and
Traditional Media) to gain initial exposure, but with the building of the crowd and/or
provocative actions, they will attract exposure from additional domestic and international
communication outlets. The creation of an alternative information system (Information
Infrastructure) greatly aids in advertising.
Appealing to the younger generation is extremely important for Color Revolutions, as the
presence of many young individuals provides the Movement with a youthful, energizing
appearance against a stagnant, decayed system (most government leaders will not be of college
age or thereabouts). This generational context is very strong and effective in highlighting the
‘freshness’ of the Color Revolution’s ideas against the seemingly perceived (and framed)
outdated views of the ruling establishment. The younger generation also typically is not
engaged in a life-or-death economic struggle, whereby they are absolutely compelled to go to
work during the day. They have their families and other supporters that can provide for them,
thereby giving them the necessary free time to constantly interact with and support the
Movement and its physical manifestations.
As previously explained, the occupied area needs to maintain a constant presence, and it is
more probable that younger college-age individuals will stand with the Movement throughout
the night than will retired pensioners or middle-aged parents.
The younger generation is attracted by the ‘fun’ emanating from the protesters’ occupation of
the symbolic location. ‘Fun’ can be advertised via some of the following methods:
§ Concerts
§ Chants
§ Celebrity Appearances
§ Sports and other Games
The above examples do not even have to be explicitly political. The important thing is to attract
more and more young people, and whether they are there for political or social reasons, the
media will portray them as supporters of the Movement. Advertising the youthful appeal of the
occupation through these methods, as well as displaying the presence of youthful protesters via
the New and Traditional Media, will draw in more people from that age group.
Importantly, the younger generation does not even have to be from the capital or the targeted
region of the occupation and mass protest events. Instead, they can (and commonly are) bussed
in from all across the country to attend the protests.
§ The meeting locations and paths (including their symbolism [helps with framing the
events])
§ The time(s) and day(s)
§ Possible blockades against the police
§ Flags/marching bands/vehicles blasting nationalist music (Physical Infrastructure 2)
§ Where the marches/protests will culminate (usually the occupied area or government
buildings)
The directing of simultaneous protests and marches of large groups of people makes it
challenging for the police to deal with the situation. At the very least, one or two of the protest
marches will reach the culminating location even if the police attempt to stop them. Marches
and protests make the Movement seem larger than it really is, and it also attracts more
followers and bystanders. Significant media attention is centered around such events, and it
therefore helps to catapult the Movement’s message across the country and possibly the world.
The Core, Cohorts, and Civilian sympathizers are all energized, and they feel like they are a part
of something bigger than themselves. By being marketed as an all-day activity, such events can
even attract families. The more children involved, the better for the Movement’s image.
2. Physical Infrastructure 2
The second form of Physical Infrastructure is more traditional, as it involves stages,
megaphones, banners, etc. It is the physical objects employed during the Color Revolution’s
tangible manifestations and publicized media campaigns, and parts of it are closely related to
Information Infrastructure. All of this has to be prepared well in advance, and none of it is
spontaneous. For example, the stages that are deployed in the protest and occupied area(s)
have to be obtained prior to the commencement of the Color Revolution, as do tents and
adequate food and beverage supplies for the Civilian sympathizers. The stages are set up before
the protest events, and the tents may be set up before or during them. It is not possible to
procure everything physically needed for a successful Color Revolution on the spot or
instantaneously. Therefore, networks of contacts and prior arrangements have to be created in
advance.
Conclusion:
A Color Revolution is a complex interplay of many parts operating simultaneously. The
Movement has to properly build its six Infrastructures prior to the onset of the public
destabilization, and it needs an Event to galvanize its support and justify its actions to the
targeted audiences. The Physical Infrastructures assist the Movement in gaining traction and
attention, and they make the Color Revolution appear popular and spontaneous. A proper
understanding of all of the working parts of a Color Revolution can enable one to better
understand this new tactic of warfare being waged against national governments, as well as to
identify vulnerabilities that can be exploited in crafting an effective counterrevolutionary
strategy.