Us 2021 Consumer Products Industry Outlook Final
Us 2021 Consumer Products Industry Outlook Final
industry outlook
No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Introduction
We begin the year confronted by several seemingly contradictory
realities. The overall macroeconomic environment faces continued
headwinds, yet the outlook for the consumer products (CP or CPG)
industry is relatively bright. More specifically, the service economy
continues to suffer, but consumers are shifting their unspent money
toward buying more goods. Even within CPG, there are winners and Outlook methodology
losers based on how well-positioned companies are to meet the
needs of the continued at-home consumption trend. It is a complex Deloitte consumer products industry specialists
and uncertain environment making navigation even more fraught defined and scenario-tested several dozen strategic
than usual. actions with the intention of identifying a core set that
proved valuable in all scenarios. This year, we sought
While there is good reason to be optimistic, even enthusiastic, additional external testing and confirmation for our
toward the prospects for growth in this year’s outlook, consumer views. These actions and other concepts were further
products companies should proceed with appropriate care. evaluated through a purpose-built, external survey of
However, after scenario analysis and connecting with an external senior executives at 55 consumer products companies.
panel of industry executives, we identify five “no-regret” strategic The combined analysis uncovered five themes that
moves that we feel represent the direction of the industry in 2021. represent the core direction of the consumer products
Specifically, consumer products companies are: industry in 2021. We call them “no-regret” moves
because they are actions that have strategic merit
• Resetting go-to-market strategies, regardless of how the future unfolds.
• Accelerating the shift to digital,
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
In our baseline scenario for the second half, the story changes.2
A key to economic growth in 2021 and 2022 is distribution to and
acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines by the wider US population.
Economic activity and wider consumer spending are likely to pick
up as a result. Accordingly, we expect the US economy to expand in
2021 after a 3.6% contraction in 2020.3
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Potential strategy differences among companies with Q2 2020 revenue increase versus decrease
70%
60%
60%
50%
44%
40%
40% 36%
30%
30%
24%
20%
10% 10%
10%
0%
Rationalize product offerings Design new product offerings Introduce new services Resegment shoppers and
by reducing the number of (e.g., subscriptions, develop a completely new
SKUs produced and sold digital enhancements) go-to-market strategy
This move to DTC is true both for companies that did well and It is worth noting that, for CP companies to be successful in these
those that lost revenue during the initial wave of the pandemic, pursuits, they should develop their data intelligence capabilities to
but the latter group has an additional set of priorities. Those who anticipate and identify demand shifts. There is too much volatility
lost revenue are twice as likely to say they need to resegment and uncertainty not to wire these improved go-to-market systems
their consumer base and develop a completely new go-to-market with better headlights for strategic decisions and triggers for faster
strategy. In 2021, they will likely continue to rationalize their product action. And, like with e-commerce channels, those companies
offerings by reducing the number of SKUs produced and sold. Many looking to diversify and create new revenue streams should make
are also seeking diversification into offerings that better fit the at- sure they have the right digital and supply chain capabilities in place
home trend. They will likely spend 2021 designing new products and to support them.
introducing new service offerings to meet the need.
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Companies are following a mix of strategies to create surety of But remote work and a changing workplace also create new
supply, depending on their circumstances. Some are shortening their challenges when it comes to talent. When asked how they would
supply chains and repatriating to derisk. About an equal number of invest a blank check, one executive said, “I would spend it on the
others say they are past the point of no return on globalization and employee experience. We need to retain our talent and, given the
are pursuing other strategies. Having better data and analytics to influx of remote work, that will be harder to do.” Retaining top talent
plan and predict demand often starts with an outside-in approach is a top-five objective for 2021 in our executive panel.
to data that helps companies see change before it pops up in their
organization. About three in four executives agree that they will A subset of companies will consider M&A as a means of reshaping
make more use of external data for predicting demand. Slightly more their corporate portfolio for a stronger foundation. There are
than half see AI beginning to replace historical statistical forecasting offensive and defensive motivations. M&A this year will likely be
in 2021. They are also looking to metrics to better manage resilience especially important for those companies that were not as well-
itself. Four in five say measuring supply chain resilience will be positioned to capitalize on the changes instigated by the pandemic.
increasingly important to them. Industry 4.0 digital supply chain Executives in our panel are 50% more likely to invest in their M&A
networks help make that measurement and management possible, strategy if they took a revenue hit in Q2 2020 relative to those who
improving execution overall.11 The flexibility aspect is also of had stable or increased revenue. This same group of companies
heightened interest, with nine in 10 execs prioritizing the capability that took a revenue hit look to create diversification in their offerings
of their supply chains to react more quickly to consumer needs. and build business in more attractive segments, as well as divest of
those that no longer fit their strategy. Fortunately for them, frequent,
small-sized acquisitions for purposes of extending into and exploring
Investing in tomorrow’s new spaces tend to outperform.12 Companies divesting or being
acquired should prepare for extra-rigorous due diligence in this
business foundations environment. Being a well-prepared seller can make the process
easier for everyone.
CPG companies aren’t letting the crisis go to waste. They are using
this moment of great change to make improvements to aspects of We would be remiss if we did not discuss a reenergized basic that
their businesses structure and operations that are likely needed for should be at the foundation of every consumer products business:
a stronger future. One agenda item is cost structure realignment. health and safety. These capabilities ranked a close second in their
At the onset of the pandemic, many companies quickly engaged in importance to companies achieving their objectives in the year
tactical cost-cutting measures—reducing working capital, closing ahead. Companies in our panel consider this area to be of high
facilities, and selling assets. For some companies, those measures maturity. However, respondents strongly agree there is more to be
were critically necessary to conserve cash and keep the business done on health and that consumers will continue to care.
afloat. However, a more strategic, structural cost transformation
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Connecting purpose to profit purpose as a reporting exercise and make it a core part of their
strategy will likely reflect that change organizationally. They recognize
Consumers want more than improved protection of their health and purpose shouldn’t be managed on the side as part of a CSR
safety to come out of the COVID-19 crisis. In fact, nearly nine in 10 organization, but instead integrated into the management system for
say the pandemic is “an opportunity for large companies to hit ‘reset’ all aspects of business decision-making. Companies that are specific
and focus on doing right by their workers, consumers, communities, in how they define and communicate their goals will likely also be
and the environment.”13 Our industry panel agrees. Three in four said well-served. It is one thing to declare a pro-environmental stance
that a “strategy to place purpose alongside profit, express corporate and another to state that your company, through its core business
values, and address heightened consumer attention to sustainability, practices, will restore 100,000 square kilometers of Amazon
social justice/equality, and environmental consciousness” will be rainforest. PVH, through its “Forward Fashion” targets, set the
important to achieving their strategic outcomes in 2021. More than ambitious goal to “generate zero waste, zero carbon emissions, and
three in five are backing that up by making meaningful investments. zero hazardous chemicals” and for their products to be circular (i.e.,
fully reused). Importantly, they get even more specific. For example,
CPG companies have good reasons to make these investments. they have a stated objective to improve the lives of 1 million people
Purpose has evolved from a differentiator and competitive across the company’s value chain and commit that “three of the
advantage to a core business mandate that requires line-of-business company’s most commonly purchased products will be completely
and even board-level attention. A recent “strength of purpose” circular, including the full traceability of key raw materials, by 2025.”20
study of more than 8,000 global consumers and 75 companies
demonstrated that when a brand has a strong purpose, consumers
are four times more likely to buy, six times more likely to protect,
four and a half times more likely to recommend, and four times more
likely to trust the brand.14 Other research shows consumers are even
willing to pay a small premium for products from companies that
have transparent supply chains reflecting their environmental, social,
and governance (ESG) goals.15
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Closing thoughts
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Endnotes
1. United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Accounts, sourced 12. Barb Renner et al., “Serial and small: M&A strategies that work for consumer
through Haver Analytics. products companies,” Deloitte Insights, August 2020, https://www2.deloitte.
com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/cpg-m-and-a.html.
2. Dr. Daniel Bachman, Akrur Barua and Lester Gunnion, “COVID-19 will weigh
on consumer spending till vaccinations change the game,” Deloitte Insights, 13. “What Americans Want from Corporate America During the Response,
December 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/ Reopening, and Reset Phases of the Coronavirus Crisis,” JUST Capital, June
spotlight/economics-insights-analysis.html. 2020, https://justcapital.com/reports/survey-what-americans-want-from-
corporate-america-during-the-response-reopening-and-reset-phases-of-the-
3. Dr. Daniel Bachman, “United States Economic Forecast: 4th Quarter 2020,” coronavirus-crisis.
Deloitte Insights, December 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/
economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html. 14. “The 2020 Zeno Strength of Purpose Study,” Zeno Group, June 2020, https://
www.zenogroup.com/insights/2020-zeno-strength-purpose.
4. Stephen Rogers et al., “Deloitte State of the Consumer Tracker,” Deloitte,
November 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail- 15. Alexis Bateman and Leonardo Bonanni, “What supply chain transparency
distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker.html. really means,” Harvard Business Review, August 2019, https://hbr.org/2019/08/
what-supply-chain-transparency-really-means.
5. Hanna Ziady, “This company conquered the ice cream market. Home delivery
is the final frontier,” CNN Business, November 2020, https://edition.cnn. 16. Punit Renjen, "Success personified in the Fourth Industrial Revolution: Four
com/2020/11/14/business/unilever-ice-cream. leadership personas for an era of change and uncertainty," Deloitte Insights,
January 2019, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/
6. “Perdue Farms Launches New Direct-to-Consumer E-Commerce Website in Documents/gx-davos-DI_Success-personified-fourth-industrial-revolution.
Centennial Year,” PR Newswire, January 2020, https://www.prnewswire.com/ pdf.
news-releases/perdue-farms-launches-new-direct-to-consumer-e-commerce-
website-in-centennial-year-300982699.html. 17. Sean Collins and Kristen B. Sullivan, "Advancing environmental, social, and
governance investing: A holistic approach for investment management firms,"
7. Based on analysis of data from Fortune-Deloitte CEO Survey, October 2020. Deloitte Insights, February 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/
8. Preeti Padma, “Robotics automation in the meat industry is on the horizon,” insights/us/articles/5073_Advancing-ESG-investing/DI_Advancing-ESG-
Analytics Insight, November 2020, https://www.analyticsinsight.net/robotics- investing_UK.pdf.
automation-in-the-meat-industry-is-on-the-horizon. 18. United Nations, Sustainable Development Goals, “Goal 6: Ensure access to
9. Maggie Miller, “FBI sees spike in cyber crime reports during water and sanitation for all,” accessed November 2020, https://www.un.org/
coronavirus pandemic,” The Hill, April 2020, https://thehill.com/policy/ sustainabledevelopment/water-and-sanitation.
cybersecurity/493198-fbi-sees-spike-in-cyber-crime-reports-during- 19. Ecolab, “Helping ADM Save 2.3 Billion Gallons of Water,” https://www.ecolab.
coronavirus-pandemic. com/stories/helping-adm-save-billions-of-gallons-of-water.
10. Elaine Watson, “Beyond Meat to launch value packs, more aggressive pricing, 20. PVH, “Fashion Forward Targets,” July 2020, https://responsibility.pvh.com/wp-
and direct-to-consumer operation,” FoodNavigator-USA, May 2020, https:// content/uploads/2020/07/PVH-Forward-Fashion-Targets.pdf.
www.foodnavigator-usa.com/Article/2020/05/06/Beyond-Meat-to-launch-
value-packs-more-aggressive-pricing-and-direct-to-consumer-operation.
11. Barb Renner et al., “2020 Consumer Products Industry Outlook,” Deloitte,
January 2020, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/consumer-business/
articles/consumer-products-industry-outlook.html.
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2021 consumer products industry outlook: No-regret moves in the face of uncertainty
Authors
Barb Renner Bernardo Silva Jagadish Upadhyaya
Vice chairman and Managing director Manager
US Consumer Products leader Consumer Products Deloitte Consumer Industry Center
Deloitte Tax LLP Deloitte Consulting LLP Deloitte Services India Pvt. Ltd.
Contributors
Rich Nanda Daniel Bachman Tim Gaus James Cascone
Principal Senior manager Principal Partner
Strategy & Analytics Deloitte Services LP Deloitte Consulting LLP Deloitte Risk & Financial Advisory
Deloitte Consulting LLP Deloitte & Touche LLP
Contacts
Barb L. Renner Stephen B. Rogers
Vice chairman and US Managing director
Consumer Products leader Deloitte Consumer Industry Center
Deloitte Tax LLP Deloitte Services LP
+1 612 397 4705 +1 203 563 2378
[email protected] [email protected]
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