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Discrete Probability Distributions: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin

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55 views

Discrete Probability Distributions: Mcgraw-Hill/Irwin

Uploaded by

Jann Paulo Mendoza
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 22

Discrete

Probability
Distributions
Chapter 6

McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
LO5 Describe and compute probabilities for
a binomial distribution.

Binomial Probability Distribution


„ A Widely occurring discrete probability
distribution
„ Characteristics of a Binomial Probability
Distribution
1. There are only two possible outcomes on a
particular trial of an experiment.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive,
3. The random variable is the result of counts.
4. Each trial is independent of any other trial
6-2
LO5

Binomial Probability Experiment


1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is
classified into one of two mutually exclusive
categories—a success or a failure.
2. The random variable counts the number of successes
in a fixed number of trials.
3. The probability of success and failure stay the same
for each trial.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome
of one trial does not affect the outcome of any
other trial.

6-3
LO5

Binomial Probability Formula

6-4
LO5

Binomial Probability - Example


There are five flights
daily from Pittsburgh
via US Airways into
the Bradford
Regional Airport in
PA. Suppose the
probability that any
flight arrives late is
.20.
What is the
probability that none
of the flights are late
today?
6-5
LO5

Binomial Probability - Excel

6-6
LO5

Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance

6-7
LO5

Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance:


Example
For the example
regarding the number
of late flights, recall
that π =.20 and n = 5.

What is the average


number of late flights?

What is the variance


of the number of late
flights?
6-8
LO5
Binomial Dist. – Mean and Variance:
Another Solution

6-9
LO5

Binomial Distribution - Table


Five percent of the worm gears produced by an automatic,
high-speed Carter-Bell milling machine are defective.
What is the probability that out of six gears selected at random
none will be defective? Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly
three? Exactly four? Exactly five? Exactly six out of six?

6-10
LO5

Binomial – Shapes for Varying π (n constant)

6-11
LO5

Binomial – Shapes for Varying n (π constant)

6-12
LO5

Binomial Probability Distributions -


Example
A study by the Illinois Department of Transportation
concluded that 76.2 percent of front seat occupants
used seat belts. A sample of 12 vehicles is selected.
What is the probability the front seat occupants in
exactly 7 of the 12 vehicles are wearing seat belts?

6-13
LO5

Binomial Probability Distributions -


Example
A study by the Illinois Department of Transportation
concluded that 76.2 percent of front seat occupants
used seat belts. A sample of 12 vehicles is selected.
What is the probability the front seat occupants in at
least 7 of the 12 vehicles are wearing seat belts?

6-14
LO5

Cumulative Binomial Probability


Distributions - Excel

6-15
LO7 Describe and compute
probabilities for a Poisson distribution.

Poisson Probability Distribution


The Poisson probability distribution
describes the number of times some event
occurs during a specified interval. The
interval may be time, distance, area, or volume.

Assumptions of the Poisson Distribution


ƒ The probability is proportional to the length of the
interval.
ƒ The intervals are independent.

6-16
LO7

Poisson Probability Distribution


The Poisson probability distribution is characterized
by the number of times an event happens during
some interval or continuum.
Examples include:
• The number of misspelled words per page in a
newspaper.
• The number of calls per hour received by Dyson
Vacuum Cleaner Company.
• The number of vehicles sold per day at Hyatt Buick
GMC in Durham, North Carolina.
• The number of goals scored in a college soccer game.
6-17
LO7

Poisson Probability Distribution


The Poisson distribution can be
described mathematically using the
formula:

6-18
LO7

Poisson Probability Distribution


„ The mean number of successes μ can
be determined in Poisson situations by
nπ, where n is the number of trials and
π the probability of a success.

„ The variance of the Poisson distribution


is also equal to n π.
6-19
LO7

Poisson Probability Distribution - Example

Assume baggage is rarely lost by Northwest Airlines.


Suppose a random sample of 1,000 flights shows a
total of 300 bags were lost. Thus, the arithmetic
mean number of lost bags per flight is 0.3
(300/1,000). If the number of lost bags per flight
follows a Poisson distribution with u = 0.3, find the
probability of not losing any bags.

6-20
LO7

Poisson Probability Distribution - Table


Recall from the previous illustration that the number of lost bags
follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 0.3. Use Appendix B.5
to find the probability that no bags will be lost on a particular flight.
What is the probability no bag will be lost on a particular flight?

6-21
LO7

More About the Poisson Probability Distribution


ƒ The Poisson probability distribution is always positively skewed and the
random variable has no specific upper limit.
ƒThe Poisson distribution for the lost bags illustration, where µ=0.3, is highly
skewed.
ƒAs µ becomes larger, the Poisson distribution becomes more symmetrical.

6-22

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