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Assessment 01 - Introduction To Descrete Probability: Probability of Cyan - Generalized

This document discusses calculating probabilities of drawing balls of different colors from a box using the R programming language. It contains 4 sections: 1) calculating the probability of drawing a cyan ball, 2) calculating the probability of not drawing a cyan ball, 3) calculating the probability of drawing a cyan ball first and a non-cyan ball second when sampling without replacement, and 4) calculating the same probability but with sampling with replacement. The document demonstrates setting up variables to represent ball counts and probabilities, and using those variables to calculate the desired probabilities through multiplication and subtraction.

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149 views

Assessment 01 - Introduction To Descrete Probability: Probability of Cyan - Generalized

This document discusses calculating probabilities of drawing balls of different colors from a box using the R programming language. It contains 4 sections: 1) calculating the probability of drawing a cyan ball, 2) calculating the probability of not drawing a cyan ball, 3) calculating the probability of drawing a cyan ball first and a non-cyan ball second when sampling without replacement, and 4) calculating the same probability but with sampling with replacement. The document demonstrates setting up variables to represent ball counts and probabilities, and using those variables to calculate the desired probabilities through multiplication and subtraction.

Uploaded by

ashishamitav123
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Assessment 01 - Introduction to Descrete probability

Gabriele Mineo - Harvard Data Science Professional

Probability of cyan - generalized

In the edX exercises for this section, we calculated some probabilities by hand. Now we’ll calculate those
probabilities using R.
One ball will be drawn at random from a box containing: 3 cyan balls, 5 magenta balls, and 7 yellow balls.
What is the probability that the ball will be cyan?
Instructions
• Define a variable p as the probability of choosing a cyan ball from the box.
• Print the value of p.
cyan <- 3
magenta <- 5
yellow <- 7

# Assign a variable `p` as the probability of choosing a cyan ball from the box
p <- cyan / (cyan + magenta + yellow)

# Print the variable `p` to the console


print(p)

## [1] 0.2

Probability of not cyan - generalized

We defined the variable p as the probability of choosing a cyan ball from a box containing: 3 cyan balls, 5
magenta balls, and 7 yellow balls.
What is the probability that the ball you draw from the box will NOT be cyan?
Instructions
• Using the probability of choosing a cyan ball, p, calculate the probability of choosing any other ball.
# `p` is defined as the probability of choosing a cyan ball from a box containing: 3 cyan balls, 5 magen
# Using variable `p`, calculate the probability of choosing any ball that is not cyan from the box
1 - p

## [1] 0.8

Sampling without replacement - generalized

nstead of taking just one draw, consider taking two draws. You take the second draw without returning the
first draw to the box. We call this sampling without replacement.
What is the probability that the first draw is cyan and that the second draw is not cyan?
Instructions

1
• Calculate the conditional probability p_2 of choosing a ball that is not cyan after one cyan ball has
been removed from the box.
• Calculate the joint probability of both choosing a cyan ball on the first draw and a ball that is not
cyan on the second draw using p_1 and p_2.
cyan <- 3
magenta <- 5
yellow <- 7

# The variable `p_1` is the probability of choosing a cyan ball from the box on the first draw.
p_1 <- cyan / (cyan + magenta + yellow)

# Assign a variable `p_2` as the probability of not choosing a cyan ball on the second draw without repl
p_2 <- (magenta + yellow) / (cyan + magenta + yellow - 1)
# Calculate the probability that the first draw is cyan and the second draw is not cyan.
p_1 * p_2

## [1] 0.1714286

Sampling with replacement - generalized

Now repeat the experiment, but this time, after taking the first draw and recording the color, return it back
to the box and shake the box. We call this sampling with replacement.
What is the probability that the first draw is cyan and that the second draw is not cyan?
Instructions
• Calculate the probability p_2 of choosing a ball that is not cyan on the second draw, with replacement.
• Next, use p_1 and p_2 to calculate the probability of choosing a cyan ball on the first draw and a ball
that is not cyan on the second draw (after replacing the first ball).
cyan <- 3
magenta <- 5
yellow <- 7

# The variable 'p_1' is the probability of choosing a cyan ball from the box on the first draw.
p_1 <- cyan / (cyan + magenta + yellow)

# Assign a variable 'p_2' as the probability of not choosing a cyan ball on the second draw with replace
p_2 <- (magenta + yellow) / (cyan + magenta + yellow)
# Calculate the probability that the first draw is cyan and the second draw is not cyan.
p_1 * p_2

## [1] 0.16

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