Scribd
Upload
36 views

Reference Answers For HW2

The document contains a student's solutions to probability and statistics problems from Assignment 2. The student solved problems involving Bayes' theorem, conditional probability, mutually exclusive and independent events, and coin tossing problems. The solutions showed the calculations and reasoning steps to arrive at the probability values requested in each problem.

Uploaded by

creation portal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
36 views

Reference Answers For HW2

The document contains a student's solutions to probability and statistics problems from Assignment 2. The student solved problems involving Bayes' theorem, conditional probability, mutually exclusive and independent events, and coin tossing problems. The solutions showed the calculations and reasoning steps to arrive at the probability values requested in each problem.

Uploaded by

creation portal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 4

Probability and Statistics in Engineering

2nd Assignment
Name
Student ID
Lecturer/TA : Prof Zheng Zheng/Ms. Jingyi Wang

Problem 2-9
Show that P(AB|C) = P(A|BC)P(B|C) and P(ABC) = P(A|BC)P(B|C)P(C)!
Answer:
We have,
P(A∩B) P(B∩A)
P(A|B) = and P(B|A) =
P(B) P(A)

From those two identities, we can write as follow:


P(A ∩ B) = P(B ∩ A)
P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A)
P(A)
Then we get the simplest Bayes’ theorem as: P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(B)

Apply the same formula as above, our problem will be ease to written as:
P(A|B∩C)P(B∩C) P(A|B∩C)P(B|C)P(C)
i) P(A ∩ B|C) = = = P(A|B ∩ C)P(B|C) proven
P(C) P(C)
ii) P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = P(A|BC)P(B ∩ C) = P(A|BC)P(B ∩ C) proven
Problem 2-12
A call occurs at time t is a random point in the interval (0,10), find:
a) P{6 ≤ t ≤ 8}
b) P{6 ≤ t ≤ 8|t > 5}
Answer:
A telephone call occurs at random in the interval (0, 𝑇). This means that the probability that it
𝑡
will occur in the interval 0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑡0 equals 𝑇0 .Thus the outcomes of this experiment are all
points in the interval (0, T) and the probability of the event (the call= will occur in the interval
(𝑡1 , 𝑡2 )) equals:
𝑡2 − 𝑡1
𝑃{𝑡1 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 𝑡2 } =
𝑇
refer the equation above we will obtain: 6 8
8−6 1
a) P{6 ≤ t ≤ 8} = 10 = 5 = 0.2
P{(6≤t≤8)∩(t>5)} P(6≤t≤8) 2 5
b) P{6 ≤ t ≤ 8|t > 5} = = = 5 = 0.4
P(t>5) P(t>5)
Problem 2-14
The events A and B are mutually exclusive. Can they be independent?
Answer:
A and B are independent each other if 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵), while mutually exclusive can
be expressed as 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) which is 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.
Hence, A and B are mutually exclusive, they can be independent if 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵) = 0.
Problem 2-17
Box 1 contains 1 white and 999 red balls. Box 2 contains 1 red and 999 white balls. A ball is
picked from a randomly selected box. If the ball is red what is the probability that it came from
box 1?
Answer:
We suppose 𝐵1 and 𝐵2 respectively to the balls in Boxes 1 and 2, and denote by R and W
respectively for red and white balls.

BOX 1 BOX 2

White (W) Red (R) White (W) Red (R)


1 999 999 1
1
It is obvious we have 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 2.

We also can clearly write:


𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐵1 ) 999
𝑃(𝑅|𝐵1) = = = 0.999
𝑃(𝐵1 ) 1 + 999
𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐵2 ) 1
𝑃(𝑅|𝐵2 ) = = = 0.001
𝑃(𝐵2 ) 1 + 999
The Bayes’ theorem gives us:
𝑃(𝑅|𝐵1)𝑃(𝐵1 ) 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵1)𝑃(𝐵1 ) 0.999
𝑃(𝐵1|𝑅) = = = = 0.999
𝑃(𝑅) 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵1)𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵2)𝑃(𝐵2 ) 0.999 + 0.001

Problem 2-18

Box 1 contains 1000 bulbs of which 10% are defective. Box 2 contains 2000 bulbs of which
5% are defective. Two bulbs are picked from a randomly selected box.
(a) Find the probability that both bulbs are defective!
(b) Assuming that both are defective, find the probability that they came from box 1!
Answer:
The space of this experiment consists of 2800 good (g) components and 200 defective (d)
components arranged as:
1) Box 1: 900g, 100d
2) Box 2: 1900g,200d
We denote by 𝐵𝑖 the event consisting of all components in the 𝑖-th box and by D the event
consisting of all defective components. Clearly,
1
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 𝑃(𝐵2 ) =
2
because the boxes are selected at random. The probability that the first bulb selected from 𝐵1is
100
defective equals . The probability that the second bulb is defective given the first was
1000
99
defective equals 999. Therefore,
100 99
𝑃(𝐷|𝐵1) = ∗
1000 999
100
We similarly find, the probability that the first bulb selected from 𝐵2 is defective equals 2000.
99
The probability that the second bulb is defective given the first was defective equals .
1999
100 99
𝑃(𝐷|𝐵2 ) = ∗
2000 1999
Then we obtain the probability that the both bulbs are defective is:
100 99 100 99 1
a) 𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐷|𝐵1)𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐷|𝐵2)𝑃(𝐵2 ) = (1000 ∗ 999 + 2000 ∗ 1999) ∗ 2 ≈ 0.0062

b) We examine the selected component and we find it defective. On the basis of this
evidence, we want to determine the probability that it came from box 1. We now want
the conditional probability 𝑃(𝐵1|𝐷). Since
𝑃(𝐷) ≈ 0.0062 ; 𝑃(𝐷|𝐵1) ≈ 0.00991 ; 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 0.5
yields,
𝑃(𝐷|𝐵1)𝑃(𝐵1 ) 0.00991 ∗ 0.5
𝑃(𝐵1|𝐷) = = ≈ 0.8
𝑃(𝐷) 0.0062
Problem 2-21
We have two coins; the first is fair and the second two-headed. We pick one of the coins at
random, we toss it twice and heads shows both times. Find the probability that the coin picked
is fair.
Answer:
We assume F: Fair coin, D: Double Headed coin, and H: Head. We have 8 outcomes in this
experiment.

𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 − 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑(𝐻𝐻) 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 − 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑(𝐻𝐻)


𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 − 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙(𝐻𝑇) 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑 − 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙(𝐻𝑇)
𝐹={ ; 𝐷={
𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 − 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑(𝑇𝐻) 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 − 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑(𝑇𝐻)
𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 − 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙(𝑇𝑇) 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 − 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙(𝑇𝑇)

Clearly,

1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐷) = ; 𝑃(𝐻𝐻|𝐹) = ∗ = ; 𝑃(𝐻𝐻|𝐷) = 1
2 2 2 4
Our problem is to get the probability of the coin picked up is Fair given that Heads shows both
for twice toss, mathematically 𝑃(𝐹|𝐻𝐻).

1 1 1 5
𝑃(𝐻𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐻𝐻|𝐹)𝑃(𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐻𝐻|𝐷)𝑃(𝐷) = ∗ +1∗ =
4 2 2 8

Hence,

1
𝑃(𝐻𝐻|𝐹)𝑃(𝐹) 8 1
𝑃(𝐹|𝐻𝐻) = = =
𝑃(𝐻𝐻) 5 5
8

You might also like