3.

1 THE CARBON DIOXIDE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

James R. Fleming*
Colby College, Waterville, Maine

1. INTRODUCTION could account for the advance and retreat of the ice
sheets and other geological puzzles. Using an early
This paper examines the discovery of the carbon notion of an oceanic conveyor belt driven by thermal
dioxide theory of climate change, its eclipse during and saline forcing, Chamberlin attempted to connect
the first five decades of the twentieth century, and its his theory to glacial history.
reemergence in the work of G.S. Callendar. It Nils Ekholm, an early and eager spokesman for
provides historical perspectives on the study of anthropogenic climate control, pointed out that at
climate dynamics (∆C/∆t) from the perspective of present rates, the burning of coal could double the
science dynamics (∆S/∆t). concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and would undoubtedly cause a very
2. EMERGENCE obvious rise of the mean temperature of the Earth,
possibly preventing the arrival of a new Ice Age as
In the second half of the nineteenth century scientists predicted by James Croll's astronomical theory.
working in distinct specialties identified carbon dioxide
as a possible agent in climate change. John Tyndall 3. ECLIPSE
conducted the first convincing experiments on the
radiative properties of gases in 1859 and The carbon dioxide climate theory soon fell out of
demonstrated that "perfectly colorless and invisible favor, however. In 1900, Knut Ångström concluded
gases and vapours" were able to absorb and emit that carbon dioxide and water vapor absorb infrared
radiant heat. (Tyndall 1861). In 1896 Svante radiation in the same spectral regions. Any additional
Arrhenius published an article on the Earth’s heat carbon dioxide, it was argued, would have little or no
budget as influenced by variations in the effect. W.J. Humphreys used these results to argue
concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. that a doubling or halving of carbon dioxide, as
Arrhenius demonstrated that variations of proposed by Arrhenius, would make no difference in
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration could have the amount of infrared radiation absorbed by the
a very great effect on the overall heat budget and atmosphere and could not appreciably change the
surface temperature of the planet and might be average temperature of the Earth or be at all effective
sufficient to have caused ice ages and interglacial in the production of marked climatic changes. Such
periods (Arrhenius 1896). In constructing his model, negative assessments of carbon dioxide were
Arrhenius relied heavily on the experimental and amplified by Charles Greely Abbot who insisted on
observational work of others, including Josef Stefan's the primacy of water vapor as an infrared absorber.
new law of radiant emission, Samuel P. Langley's By 1929, G.C. Simpson had pointed out that it
measurements of atmospheric transmissivity, Léon was "now generally accepted that variations in
Teisserenc de Bort's estimates of cloudiness, Knut carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere, even if they do
Ånsgström's absorption coefficients of water vapor occur, can have no appreciable effect on the climate."
and carbon dioxide, Alexander Buchan's charts of Simpson provided three reasons why this was so: (1)
mean monthly temperatures, and A.G. Högbom’s The absorption band of carbon dioxide is too narrow
estimates of the carbon cycle. Significantly, to have a significant effect on terrestrial radiation; (2)
anthropogenic increases of carbon dioxide were not The current amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide
of concern in Arrhenius’s paper of 1896 (Fleming exerts its full effect and any further addition would
1998). have little or no influence; and (3) The water vapor
T.C. Chamberlin also outlined a carbon dioxide absorption band overlaps and dominates the carbon
theory of glaciation (Chamberlin 1897). He proposed dioxide band. Such negative assessments of the
that variations of the carbon dioxide content of the carbon dioxide theory reached wide audiences
atmosphere combined with water vapor feedbacks through articles on climate change in the U.S.D.A.
Yearbook for 1941 and in the Compendium of
Meteorology in 1951.
* Corresponding author address: James R. Fleming, While the carbon dioxide theory was in eclipse,
Science Technology, and Society Program, Colby other mechanisms of climatic change, although highly
College, 5881 Mayflower Hill, Waterville, ME 04901; speculative, were given more credence, especially
e-mail: [email protected] changes in solar luminosity, atmospheric
transparency, terrestrial geography, and the Earth's rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by
orbital elements. Evidence for glaciation in low industrial fuel combustion as the “Callendar effect.”
latitudes was explained by Wladimir Köppen and During the IGY, Charles Keeling began a long-
Alfred Wegener as the result of continents drifting term series of carbon dioxide measurements. Since
northward under climate zones controlled mainly by then, the Keeling curve, the famous saw-toothed
latitude. Although this theory was not widely curve of rising carbon dioxide concentrations, has
accepted by geologists, it is now seen as a first step become the environmental icon of the century. Still,
in paleoclimatic reconstruction. In the 1930s, the many meteorologists pointed out uncertainties in the
Serbian astronomer and geophysicist Milutin complex interrelationships among atmospheric
Milankovic, building on earlier work, outlined a composition, solar insolation, cloudiness, evaporation,
comprehensive "astronomical theory of the ice ages" ocean circulation, and global temperatures.
that viewed them as caused by periodic changes in Between 1938 and about 1958 doubts about the
the Earth's orbital elements. Most scientists of the efficacy of carbon dioxide as an agent of climatic
time supported only one of the major mechanisms of change gave way to new theories and observations.
climatic change; some grudgingly admitted that other Rising temperatures, expanding carbon emissions,
mechanisms might play a secondary role. new measurements of the radiative properties of trace
gases, and new models of the Earth's heat budget
4. RE-EMERGENCE and carbon cycle convinced a number of scientists
that the carbon dioxide theory needed to be taken
In 1938, G.S. Callendar, a steam engineer and seriously. By the early 1950s, with Northern
amateur meteorologist, began the revival of the Hemisphere temperatures rising, global warming
carbon dioxide theory of climate change (Callendar, emerged on the public policy agenda.
1938). Callendar’s work combined recent
spectroscopic measurements of the absorption bands 5. CONCLUSION
of carbon dioxide (including the effect of pressure
broadening), measurements of rising concentrations The CO2 theory of climate change has changed
of atmospheric carbon dioxide since pre-industrial dramatically on timescales of decades to centuries in
times, and evidence of climate warming as the period 1850 to 1950 and will likely continue to do
documented by long-term station records. Callendar so. Since climate ideas—in relation to changes in
constructed a one-dimensional model in which the ten technology, and social organization of science—can
percent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide change faster than the climate itself, they are worthy
concentration measured since 1900 explained the of serious historical study. Clearly, a student of
0.25 C temperature increase observed over the same climate dynamics must also study the history of
period. A doubling of carbon dioxide in his model science, here referred to as “science dynamics.”
resulted in a mean global temperature increase of 2 C
with greater temperature increases in high latitudes. 6 REFERENCES
Even in the depths of World War II, meteorologists
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of climatic change. Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the
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an early computer model of infrared radiative transfer Callendar, G.S., 1938. "The Artificial Production of
and published a number of articles on carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on
and climate. Plass used new detailed measurements Temperature." Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 64,
of the infrared absorption bands and newly available 223–40.
digital computers to replace the older graphical Chamberlin, T.C., 1897. “A Group of Hypotheses
methods. The new carbon dioxide theory also Bearing on Climatic Changes.” J. Geol. 5,
nullified old objections, especially those of Simpson. 653–83.
In 1957, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess Fleming, J.R., 1998. Historical Perspectives on
published an oft-cited article on the exchange of Climate Change. New York and Oxford: Oxford
carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and ocean. Univ. Press.
Citing Callendar and Plass, the authors provided new Tyndall, J., 1861. “On the Absorption and Radiation of
estimates of the sequestering of carbon in the Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical
atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and lithosphere Connection of Radiation, Absorption, and
using C14 techniques pioneered by Suess. After Conduction.” Phil. Mag. ser. 4, 22, 169–94,
taking ocean reservoirs and other sinks in to account, 273–85.
Revelle and Suess estimated a twenty to forty percent
increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide by the end of ACKNOWLEDGMENT This material is based upon
the century. Suess and Revelle even referred to work supported by the National Science Foundation
under Grant No. SES-0114998.