Q1

Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Q6
Q7
Q8
Q9
Q10
Q11
Q12
R2 would increase after adding insignificant variable
Linear regression will pass through maximum number of lines
Often no need to run solver on regression result
Assumption: Multicollinearity doesnot exist in linear regression
Best fit line minimizes the sum of squared distances of all points from the line.
James McGill and his tumor surgery, what is the correct decision tree path in case of exploratory surgery
What is the probability that exploratory surgery will indicate the tumor is malignant given that it is actually malignant?
the probability that the tumor is benign given that the exploratory surgery indicates that it is malignant?
the expected lifetimes, are not useful in any probability calculations related to the question.
Assume that the penalty of overbooking is increased from $1,750 to $4,000. Optimal Seats
Assume that the penalty of overbooking is increased from $1,750 to $4,000. Expected Revenue
customer showing up is increased to 0.80. probability
that a customer will be bumped
 1 even if we add kachra variables R2 increases which is why not the best
0 Line of Best fit
1 yes because we use solver when we have any necessary conditions/constraints in our data.
1 we don't want variables sharing multicolinearity as it skews the result
1 of all points, no. for errors yes
B Because obv A doesn't make sense, B
65% on excel
20.41 on excel
1 on excel
19 on excel
18999 on excel
27.13 on excel
 Ontario Gateway Airline’s

Total no. of seats 15

First class ticket
Probability of show 70%
Probability of no show 30%
First class ticket price 1500
overbooked seat loss 4000

Total Seats Sold

No of seats 0 1 2
15 1.43E-08 5.02E-07 8.20E-06
16 4.30E-09 1.61E-07 2.81E-06
binom distribution 17 1.29E-09 5.12E-08 9.56E-07
18 3.87E-10 1.63E-08 3.23E-07
19 1.16E-10 5.15E-09 1.08E-07
20 3.49E-11 1.63E-09 3.61E-08
21 1.05E-11 5.13E-10 1.20E-08
22 3.14E-12 1.61E-10 3.95E-09
23 9.41E-13 5.05E-11 1.30E-09
24 2.82E-13 1.58E-11 4.24E-10
25 8.47E-14 4.94E-12 1.38E-10
26 2.54E-14 1.54E-12 4.50E-11
27 7.63E-15 4.80E-13 1.46E-11
28 2.29E-15 1.49E-13 4.71E-12
29 6.86E-16 4.64E-14 1.52E-12
30 2.06E-16 1.44E-14 4.88E-13
this is cumalative profits respec 0.00 1500.00 3000.00
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIO

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8.29E-05 5.81E-04 2.98E-03 1.16E-02 3.48E-02 8.11E-02 1.47E-01 2.06E-01
3.06E-05 2.32E-04 1.30E-03 5.56E-03 1.85E-02 4.87E-02 1.01E-01 1.65E-01
1.12E-05 9.11E-05 5.53E-04 2.58E-03 9.46E-03 2.76E-02 6.44E-02 1.20E-01
4.02E-06 3.51E-05 2.30E-04 1.16E-03 4.64E-03 1.49E-02 3.86E-02 8.11E-02
1.43E-06 1.34E-05 9.35E-05 5.09E-04 2.21E-03 7.72E-03 2.20E-02 5.14E-02
5.05E-07 5.01E-06 3.74E-05 2.18E-04 1.02E-03 3.86E-03 1.20E-02 3.08E-02
1.77E-07 1.86E-06 1.47E-05 9.16E-05 4.58E-04 1.87E-03 6.30E-03 1.76E-02
6.14E-08 6.80E-07 5.72E-06 3.78E-05 2.02E-04 8.82E-04 3.20E-03 9.71E-03
2.12E-08 2.47E-07 2.19E-06 1.53E-05 8.69E-05 4.06E-04 1.58E-03 5.15E-03
7.26E-09 8.90E-08 8.30E-07 6.13E-06 3.68E-05 1.83E-04 7.57E-04 2.65E-03
2.48E-09 3.18E-08 3.11E-07 2.42E-06 1.53E-05 8.05E-05 3.55E-04 1.32E-03
8.40E-10 1.13E-08 1.16E-07 9.44E-07 6.30E-06 3.49E-05 1.63E-04 6.46E-04
2.83E-10 3.97E-09 4.26E-08 3.64E-07 2.55E-06 1.49E-05 7.33E-05 3.08E-04
9.52E-11 1.39E-09 1.56E-08 1.39E-07 1.02E-06 6.25E-06 3.24E-05 1.44E-04
3.19E-11 4.83E-10 5.64E-09 5.26E-08 4.03E-07 2.59E-06 1.41E-05 6.58E-05
1.06E-11 1.67E-10 2.03E-09 1.97E-08 1.58E-07 1.06E-06 6.04E-06 2.96E-05
4500.00 6000.00 7500.00 9000.00 10500.00 12000.00 13500.00 15000.00
MIAL DISTRIBUTION

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2.19E-01 1.70E-01 9.16E-02 3.05E-02 4.75E-03
2.10E-01 2.04E-01 1.46E-01 7.32E-02 2.28E-02 3.32E-03
1.78E-01 2.08E-01 1.87E-01 1.25E-01 5.81E-02 1.69E-02 2.33E-03
1.38E-01 1.87E-01 2.02E-01 1.68E-01 1.05E-01 4.58E-02 1.26E-02 1.63E-03
9.81E-02 1.53E-01 1.92E-01 1.92E-01 1.49E-01 8.69E-02 3.58E-02 9.28E-03
6.54E-02 1.14E-01 1.64E-01 1.92E-01 1.79E-01 1.30E-01 7.16E-02 2.78E-02
4.12E-02 8.01E-02 1.29E-01 1.72E-01 1.88E-01 1.64E-01 1.13E-01 5.85E-02
2.47E-02 5.29E-02 9.49E-02 1.42E-01 1.77E-01 1.81E-01 1.49E-01 9.65E-02
1.42E-02 3.32E-02 6.55E-02 1.09E-01 1.53E-01 1.78E-01 1.71E-01 1.33E-01
7.87E-03 1.99E-02 4.28E-02 7.85E-02 1.22E-01 1.60E-01 1.76E-01 1.60E-01
4.22E-03 1.15E-02 2.68E-02 5.36E-02 9.16E-02 1.34E-01 1.65E-01 1.71E-01
2.19E-03 6.39E-03 1.61E-02 3.48E-02 6.50E-02 1.04E-01 1.43E-01 1.67E-01
1.11E-03 3.45E-03 9.30E-03 2.17E-02 4.39E-02 7.68E-02 1.16E-01 1.50E-01
5.48E-04 1.81E-03 5.21E-03 1.30E-02 2.83E-02 5.37E-02 8.85E-02 1.26E-01
2.65E-04 9.28E-04 2.83E-03 7.55E-03 1.76E-02 3.60E-02 6.42E-02 9.98E-02
1.26E-04 4.64E-04 1.50E-03 4.25E-03 1.06E-02 2.31E-02 4.44E-02 7.49E-02
16500.00 18000.00 19500.00 21000.00 22500.00 18500.00 14500.00 10500.00
 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

1.14E-03
6.84E-03 7.98E-04
2.15E-02 5.03E-03 5.59E-04
4.74E-02 1.66E-02 3.69E-03 3.91E-04
8.18E-02 3.82E-02 1.27E-02 2.70E-03 2.74E-04
1.18E-01 6.87E-02 3.05E-02 9.71E-03 1.97E-03 1.92E-04
1.47E-01 1.03E-01 5.72E-02 2.43E-02 7.39E-03 1.44E-03 1.34E-04
1.64E-01 1.34E-01 8.93E-02 4.73E-02 1.92E-02 5.60E-03 1.05E-03 9.39E-05
1.66E-01 1.55E-01 1.21E-01 7.67E-02 3.89E-02 1.51E-02 4.24E-03 7.60E-04
1.55E-01 1.63E-01 1.45E-01 1.07E-01 6.54E-02 3.18E-02 1.19E-02 3.19E-03
1.35E-01 1.57E-01 1.57E-01 1.33E-01 9.48E-02 5.53E-02 2.58E-02 9.26E-03
1.10E-01 1.42E-01 1.57E-01 1.50E-01 1.22E-01 8.29E-02 4.64E-02 2.08E-02
6500.00 2500.00 -1500.00 -5500.00 -9500.00 -13500.00 -17500.00 -21500.00
 Expected Profit
27 28 29 30
15750.00
16781.72
17731.19
18483.26
18899.74
18863.18
18310.15
17240.66
15706.34
13788.55
11576.76
9153.29
6.57E-05 6585.49
5.52E-04 4.60E-05 3923.88
2.40E-03 4.00E-04 3.22E-05 1203.82
7.20E-03 1.80E-03 2.90E-04 2.25E-05 -1551.31
-25500.00 -29500.00 -33500.00 -37500.00

18899.74
19
Basically our probability of selling n seats
Expected Value. extra
Profit
Expected Value Round peeps
10.5 10 16500 0
11.2 11 16500 0
11.9 12 18000 0
12.6 13 19500 0
13.3 13 19500 0
14 14 21000 0
14.7 15 22500 0
15.4 15 22500 0
16.1 16 28000 -1
16.8 17 33500 -2
17.5 18 39000 -3
18.2 18 39000 -3
18.9 19 44500 -4
19.6 20 50000 -5
20.3 20 50000 -5
21 21 55500 -6

55500
 Ontario Gateway Airline’s

Total no. of seats 15

First class ticket
Probability of show 80%
Probability of no show 20%
First class ticket price 1500
overbooked seat loss 1750

Total Seats Sold

No of seats 0
15 3.28E-11
16 6.55E-12
binom distribution 17 1.31E-12
18 2.62E-13
19 5.24E-14
20 1.05E-14
21 2.10E-15
22 4.19E-16
23 8.39E-17
24 1.68E-17
25 3.36E-18
26 6.71E-19
27 1.34E-19
28 2.68E-20
29 5.37E-21
30 1.07E-21
this is cumalative profits respectively 0.00

Probability of bumping a customer 0.27

 BINOMIA

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1.97E-09 5.51E-08 9.54E-07 1.15E-05 1.01E-04 6.72E-04 3.45E-03 1.38E-02
4.19E-10 1.26E-08 2.35E-07 3.05E-06 2.93E-05 2.15E-04 1.23E-03 5.53E-03
8.91E-11 2.85E-09 5.70E-08 7.99E-07 8.31E-06 6.64E-05 4.18E-04 2.09E-03
1.89E-11 6.42E-10 1.37E-08 2.05E-07 2.30E-06 1.99E-05 1.37E-04 7.52E-04
3.98E-12 1.43E-10 3.25E-09 5.20E-08 6.24E-07 5.83E-06 4.33E-05 2.60E-04
8.39E-13 3.19E-11 7.65E-10 1.30E-08 1.66E-07 1.66E-06 1.33E-05 8.66E-05
1.76E-13 7.05E-12 1.79E-10 3.21E-09 4.37E-08 4.66E-07 4.00E-06 2.80E-05
3.69E-14 1.55E-12 4.13E-11 7.85E-10 1.13E-08 1.28E-07 1.17E-06 8.79E-06
7.72E-15 3.40E-13 9.51E-12 1.90E-10 2.89E-09 3.47E-08 3.37E-07 2.70E-06
1.61E-15 7.41E-14 2.17E-12 4.56E-11 7.30E-10 9.25E-09 9.51E-08 8.09E-07
3.36E-16 1.61E-14 4.94E-13 1.09E-11 1.83E-10 2.43E-09 2.64E-08 2.38E-07
6.98E-17 3.49E-15 1.12E-13 2.57E-12 4.52E-11 6.33E-10 7.23E-09 6.87E-08
1.45E-17 7.54E-16 2.51E-14 6.03E-13 1.11E-11 1.63E-10 1.95E-09 1.95E-08
3.01E-18 1.62E-16 5.63E-15 1.41E-13 2.70E-12 4.14E-11 5.21E-10 5.47E-09
6.23E-19 3.49E-17 1.26E-15 3.26E-14 6.53E-13 1.04E-11 1.37E-10 1.51E-09
1.29E-19 7.47E-18 2.79E-16 7.53E-15 1.57E-13 2.61E-12 3.58E-11 4.12E-10
1500.00 3000.00 4500.00 6000.00 7500.00 9000.00 10500.00 12000.00
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
4.30E-02 1.03E-01 1.88E-01 2.50E-01 2.31E-01 1.32E-01 3.52E-02
1.97E-02 5.50E-02 1.20E-01 2.00E-01 2.46E-01 2.11E-01 1.13E-01 2.81E-02
8.35E-03 2.67E-02 6.80E-02 1.36E-01 2.09E-01 2.39E-01 1.91E-01 9.57E-02
3.34E-03 1.20E-02 3.50E-02 8.16E-02 1.51E-01 2.15E-01 2.30E-01 1.72E-01
1.27E-03 5.08E-03 1.66E-02 4.43E-02 9.55E-02 1.64E-01 2.18E-01 2.18E-01
4.62E-04 2.03E-03 7.39E-03 2.22E-02 5.45E-02 1.09E-01 1.75E-01 2.18E-01
1.62E-04 7.76E-04 3.10E-03 1.03E-02 2.86E-02 6.55E-02 1.22E-01 1.83E-01
5.47E-05 2.84E-04 1.24E-03 4.55E-03 1.40E-02 3.60E-02 7.68E-02 1.34E-01
1.80E-05 1.01E-04 4.76E-04 1.90E-03 6.44E-03 1.84E-02 4.42E-02 8.83E-02
5.75E-06 3.45E-05 1.76E-04 7.61E-04 2.81E-03 8.83E-03 2.36E-02 5.30E-02
1.80E-06 1.15E-05 6.27E-05 2.93E-04 1.17E-03 4.01E-03 1.18E-02 2.94E-02
5.50E-07 3.74E-06 2.17E-05 1.09E-04 4.68E-04 1.74E-03 5.57E-03 1.53E-02
1.65E-07 1.19E-06 7.34E-06 3.91E-05 1.81E-04 7.23E-04 2.51E-03 7.52E-03
4.86E-08 3.69E-07 2.42E-06 1.37E-05 6.74E-05 2.89E-04 1.08E-03 3.51E-03
1.41E-08 1.13E-07 7.79E-07 4.67E-06 2.45E-05 1.12E-04 4.47E-04 1.56E-03
4.03E-09 3.38E-08 2.46E-07 1.56E-06 8.63E-06 4.19E-05 1.79E-04 6.71E-04
13500.00 15000.00 16500.00 18000.00 19500.00 21000.00 22500.00 20750.00
 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2.25E-02
8.11E-02 1.80E-02
1.54E-01 6.85E-02 1.44E-02
2.05E-01 1.37E-01 5.76E-02 1.15E-02
2.16E-01 1.92E-01 1.21E-01 4.84E-02 9.22E-03
1.90E-01 2.11E-01 1.78E-01 1.07E-01 4.06E-02 7.38E-03
1.45E-01 1.94E-01 2.04E-01 1.63E-01 9.33E-02 3.39E-02 5.90E-03
9.98E-02 1.55E-01 1.96E-01 1.96E-01 1.49E-01 8.15E-02 2.83E-02 4.72E-03
6.23E-02 1.11E-01 1.63E-01 1.96E-01 1.87E-01 1.36E-01 7.08E-02 2.36E-02
3.60E-02 7.20E-02 1.21E-01 1.70E-01 1.94E-01 1.76E-01 1.23E-01 6.14E-02
1.95E-02 4.32E-02 8.19E-02 1.31E-01 1.75E-01 1.91E-01 1.66E-01 1.11E-01
9.90E-03 2.42E-02 5.10E-02 9.17E-02 1.40E-01 1.78E-01 1.86E-01 1.55E-01
4.79E-03 1.28E-02 2.96E-02 5.91E-02 1.01E-01 1.47E-01 1.79E-01 1.79E-01
2.21E-03 6.38E-03 1.61E-02 3.55E-02 6.76E-02 1.11E-01 1.54E-01 1.79E-01
19000.00 17250.00 15500.00 13750.00 12000.00 10250.00 8500.00 6750.00
 25 26 27 28 29 30

3.78E-03
1.96E-02 3.02E-03
5.30E-02 1.63E-02 2.42E-03
9.90E-02 4.57E-02 1.35E-02 1.93E-03
1.44E-01 8.83E-02 3.93E-02 1.12E-02 1.55E-03
1.72E-01 1.33E-01 7.85E-02 3.37E-02 9.28E-03 1.24E-03
5000.00 3250.00 1500.00 -250.00 -2000.00 -3750.00
 Basically our probability of selling n seats
Expected Profit Expected Value.
Expected Value Round
18000.00 12 12
19108.52 12.8 13
19942.60 13.6 14
20337.58 14.4 14
20234.92 15.2 15
19684.37 16 16
18793.43 16.8 17
17675.56 17.6 18
16421.54 18.4 18
15092.63 19.2 19
13725.44 20 20
12339.88 20.8 21
10945.98 21.6 22
9548.45 22.4 22
8149.42 23.2 23
6749.79 24 24

20337.58
18
 extra
Profit
peeps
18000 0
19500 0
21000 0
21000 0
22500 0
24000 0
29000 -2
32250 -3
32250 -3
35500 -4
38750 -5
42000 -6
45250 -7
45250 -7
48500 -8
51750 -9

51750
60%- 40% Prediction
M B
M 0.39 0.21 0.60
Actual
B 0.1 0.3 0.4 Malignant TP/ Malignant
0.49 0.51 1
Benign / prediction is of malignant
 Exploratory surgery is known to indicate a benign tumor 75% of the time, if it is indeed a
benign tumor. The surgery is known to indicate a malignant tumor 65% of the times, if the
tumor is indeed malignant. Exploratory surgery itself is dangerous

t TP/ Malignant 0.65

prediction is of malignant 0.204082