UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS

Question Set : F

MidtermExam
Second Semester 2019/2020

Subject : Statistics for Economics and Business (ECEU601200)

Date : Wednesday, 1 April 2020,
Time : 09.00-12.15

Note:
• It must be handwritten on paper and e-mailed to [email protected] in jpeg or pdf file
(and make sure the scanned/captured-answer files are clear and readable) and named
KodeA_Fernando_19063XXXXXXX.pdf
• You can only submit one e-mail with the subject: JAWABAN UTS EKREG (Fernando)
(19063XXXXXXX)
• Attachment files of your answer must be in order, and if there are two (or more) answer files for
a question, you also have to order the files
• Your e-mail must be submitted at latest at 12.15 p.m. Make sure time has been calibrated so that
no time difference between you and your lecturer. Late submission will not be accepted

PART 1 : MULTIPLE CHOICE (50%)

Write the letter that corresponds to the BEST answer. There is only one BEST answer for each
question.

1. A sample space contains _________________.

A. Outcomes of the relevant events
B. Several outcomes of an experiment
C. All possible outcomes of an experiment
D. One of several outcomes of an experiment

2. Mutually exclusive events _____________.

A. Contain all possible outcomes
B. May share common outcomes
C. Do not share common outcomes
D. Do not contain all possible outcomes

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3. The union of events A and B, denoted by 𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵, ____________.
A. Contains all outcomes that are in A or B
B. Contains all outcomes of an experiment
C. Contains no outcomes that are in A and B
D. Consists only of outcomes that are in A and B

4. A probability based on logical analysis rather than on observation or personal judgment is best
referred to as a(n) _______________.
A. A priori/classic probability
B. Empirical probability
C. Subjective probability
D. None of the above

5. Assume the sample space S = {win, loss}. Select the choice that fulfills the requirements of the
definition of probability.
A. P({win}) = 0.7, P({loss}) = 0.2
B. P({win}) = 0.7, P({loss}) = 0.3
C. P({win}) = 1.0, P({loss}) = 0.1
D. P({win}) = 0.5, P({loss}) = –0.5

6. Alison has all her money invested in two mutual funds, A and B. She knows that there is a 40%
chance that fund A will rise in price, and a 60% chance that fund B will rise in price given that
fund A rises in price. What is the probability that both fund A and fund B will rise in price?
A. 0.24
B. 0.4
C. 0.76
D. 1.00

7. Alison has all her money invested in two mutual funds, A and B. She knows that there is a 40%
chance that fund A will rise in price, and a 60% chance that fund B will rise in price given that
fund A rises in price. There is also a 20% chance that fund B will rise in price. What is the
probability that neither fund will rise in price?
A. 0.24
B. 0.36
C. 0.40
D. 0.64

8. A recent survey shows that the probability of a college student drinking alcohol is 0.6. Further,
given that the student is over 21 years old, the probability of drinking alcohol is 0.8. It is also
known that 30% of the college students are over 21 years old. The probability of drinking or
being over 21 years old is __________.
A. 0.24
B. 0.42
C. 0.66
D. 0.90

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9. Let 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = 0.3 and 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 0.4. Suppose A and B are independent. What is 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)?
A. 0.12
B. 0.3
C. 0.4
D. 0.7

10. If A and B are independent events, then _________.

A. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵) = 0
B. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 0
C. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
D. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)

11. The proportion of observations in a particular class interval is known as the

A. frequency.
B. relative frequency.
C. cumulative frequency.
D. cumulative relative frequency.

12. The number of observations in the current class interval plus all previous class intervals is
known as the
A. frequency.
B. relative frequency.
C. cumulative frequency.
D. cumulative relative frequency.

13. A stem-and-leaf display can be used for summarizing

A. very large amounts of data.
B. small amounts of data.
C. grouped data.
D. tally table results.

14. Grouping data can

A. enrich the meaning of the mean and standard deviation.
B. simplify the computational process for the mean and standard deviation.
C. change the interpretation of the mean and standard deviation after they are computed.
D. complicate the computational process for the mean and standard deviation.

15. If Events A and B are independent events

A. They occur simultaneously
B. They are not influenced by one another
C. They cannot occur simultaneously
D. They are mutually exclusive

16. The conditional probability of x given y is

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 A. The probability that x and y occur jointly
B. The probability that y occurs if x has already occurred
C. The probability that x occurs if y has already occurred
D. The marginal probability of x minus the marginal probability of y

17. The multiplication rule in probability is only appropriate when the events
A. Are independent
B. Are mutually exclusive
C. Occur jointly
D. Are conditional upon one another

18. Which of the following plots is most useful for detecting outlying scores?
A. Stem and leaf plot.
B. Histogram.
C. Box and whisker plot.
D. Scattergram.

19. Which of the following would indicate that a dataset is not bell-shaped?
A. The range is equal to 5 standard deviations.
B. The range is larger than the interquartile range.
C. The mean is much smaller than the median.
D. There are no outliers.

20. If you were interested in predicting the outcome of the presidential election, you would use
A. Descriptive statistics
B. Inferential statistics
C. Deductive statistics
D. Inductive statistics

21. Data from secondary source

A. are collected for other purposes than the current study.
B. can be obtained from the newspaper.
C. are collected specifically for the current study.
D. both a and b.

22. A random error could occur if

A. the ruler used to measure students’ height is one inch too long.
B. we measure the height of the wrong students.
C. both male and female students are measured.
D. we forget to record one student’s height.

23. According to the empirical rule, approximately what percentage of normally distributed data lies
within three standard deviation of the mean?
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 A. 59%
B. 68%
C. 95%
D. 99.7%

24. The larger the variance is for a set of data, the

A. more meaningful the mean is.
B. less meaningful the mean is.
C. variance plays no part in determining whether the mean is meaningful.
D. smaller the standard deviation.

25. A z-score will always have

A. a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.
B. a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.
C. a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 0.
D. a mean of 0 and a standard deviation that is greater than 1.

26. Suppose a teacher records the following scores for a test: 87 42 55 37 99 98 47. The median is
A. 37
B. 98
C. 55
D. 87

27. When the variance for a set of data equals 0,

A. half the numbers will lie above the mean and half below.
B. the mean will always be 0.
C. all numbers in the data set will be the same.
D. the data will be widely dispersed around the mean.

28. The owner of a company has recently decided to raise the salary of one employee, who was
already making the highest salary, by 20%. Which of the following is (are) expected to be
affected by this raise?
A. median only.
B. mean only.
C. mean and median only.
D. mean, median and mode.

29. Which of the following statements is most accurate when defining percentiles?
A. The pth percentile divides a data set into equal parts.
B. Approximately p% of the observations are greater than the pth percentile.
C. Approximately (100-p)% of the observations are less than the pth percentile.
D. Approximately (100-p)% of the observations are greater than the pth percentile.

30. When comparing the geometric mean and arithmetic mean

A. the geometric mean and the arithmetic mean will always give the same numeric value.
B. the arithmetic mean will always be less than or equal to the geometric mean.
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 C. the arithmetic mean will always be greater than or equal to the geometric mean.
D. the mode will always equal the geometric mean.

31. Peter applied to an accounting firm and a consulting firm. He knows that 30% of similarly
qualified applicants receive job offers from the accounting firm, while only 20% of similarly
qualified applicants receive job offers from the consulting firm. Assume that receiving an offer
from one firm is independent of receiving an offer from the other. What is the probability that
both firms offer Peter a job?
A. 0.05
B. 0.06
C. 0.44
D. 0.5

32. The following probability table shows probabilities concerning Favorite Subject and Gender.
What is the probability of selecting an individual who is a female or prefers science?
Favorite Subject
Gender Total
Math English Science
Male 0.200 0.050 0.175 0.425
Female 0.100 0.325 0.150 0.575
Total 0.300 0.375 0.325 1.000
A. 0.250
B. 0.375
C. 0.625
D. 0.750

33. Two hundred people were asked if they had read a book in the last month. The accompanying
contingency table, cross-classified by age, is produced.
Under 30 30 +
Yes 76 65
No 24 35
The probability that a respondent is at least 30 years old is closest to ______.
A. 0.33
B. 0.46
C. 0.50
D. 0.65

34. Two hundred people were asked if they had read a book in the last month. The accompanying
contingency table, cross-classified by age, is produced.
Under 30 30 +

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 Yes 76 65
No 24 35
Given that a respondent read a book in the last month, the probability that he/she is at least 30
years old is closest to ________.
A. 0.33
B. 0.46
C. 0.65
D. 0.88

35. Let 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 0.3, 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 𝑐𝑐 ) = 0.15, 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 0.35. Compute 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶 ∩ 𝐵𝐵 𝑐𝑐 )
A. 0.20
B. 0.50
C. 0.65
D. 0.70

36. Which of the following can be represented by a discrete random variable?

A. The circumference of a randomly generated circle
B. The time of a flight between Chicago and New York
C. The number of defective light bulbs in a sample of five
D. The average distance achieved in a series of long jumps

37. What are the two key properties of a discrete probability distribution?
A. 0 ≤ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥) ≤ 1 and ∑ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) = 0
B. 0 ≤ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥) ≤ 1 and ∑ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) = 1
C. −1 ≤ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥) ≤ 1 and ∑ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) = 1
D. −1 ≤ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥) ≤ 1 and ∑ 𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) = 0

38. Consider the following discrete probability distribution.

X –10 0 10 20
𝑃𝑃(𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥) 0.35 0.10 0.15 0.40
What is the probability that X is negative?
A. 0.00
B. 0.10
C. 0.15
D. 0.35

39. Consider the following probability distribution.

𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 𝑃𝑃(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 )
–2 0.2

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 –1 0.1
0 0.3
1 0.4
The expected value is _____.
A. –1.0
B. –0.1
C. 1
D. 0.1

40. It is known that 10% of the calculators shipped from a particular factory are defective. What is
the probability that none in a random sample of four calculators is defective?
A. 0.0010
B. 0.2916
C. 0.3439
D. 0.6561

41. For a particular clothing store, a marketing firm finds that 16% of $10-off coupons delivered by
mail are redeemed. Suppose six customers are randomly selected and are mailed $10-off
coupons. What is the expected number of coupons that will be redeemed?
A. 0.81
B. 0.96
C. 3.42
D. 5.04

42. A continuous random variable is one that can take on

A. only a countable number of values
B. an infinite number of values
C. both a countable and an infinite number of values
D. only integer values

43. Which is true for a binomial distribution?

A. There are three or more possible outcomes
B. Probability of success remains the same from trial to trial
C. Value of p is equal to 0.50
D. It approximates the Poisson distribution.

44. Fisher’s ideal price index

A. Is a Laspeyres index
B. Is a Paasche index
C. Is a geometric average of a Laspeyres index and a Paasche index
D. Always equals 1

45. Which of the following is not one of the leading economic indicators?
A. Corporate profits after taxes
B. Change in consumer prices
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 C. Average hourly workweek
D. Index of stock prices for 500 common stocks

46. A large change in the price of commodities that are held in large quantities in the base year but
are held in smaller quantities in the current year will lead to
A. A greater change in the Paasche index relative to the Laspeyres index
B. A smaller change in the Paasche index relative to the Laspeyres index
C. A Laspeyres index equal to 0
D. A Paasche index equal to 0

47. Real income is computed by

A. Dividing money income by the CPI and multiplying by 100.
B. Dividing the CPI by money income and multiplying by 100.
C. Multiplying money income by the CPI.
D. Subtracting the CPI from money income

48. If the price index for a particular year is 80, it implies that:
A. prices have increased by 8% over the base year.
B. prices have decreased by 2% compared to the base year.
C. prices have decreased by 20% compared to last year.
D. prices have decreased by 20% compared to the base year.

49. Which of the following is correct for index numbers?

A. Index numbers help us to compare means
B. Index numbers help us to compare variances
C. Index numbers help us to compare related items over time
D. Index numbers help us to compare related items over place

50. Besides measuring change in the prices of goods and services, the consumer price index has a
number of other applications, except:
A. To determine real disposable personal income.
B. To find the purchasing power of the dollar.
C. Establish cost of living increases.
D. To determine nominal wage.

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PART 2: ESSAY QUESTIONS (50%)
A student must ANSWER 2 OUT OF 4 ESSAY QUESTIONS. Each essay has similar contribution
to the total mark.

Problem I.
A police officer is concerned with excessive speeds on a portion of Jagorawi Toll Road (JTR) and
Lingkar Luar Toll Road (LLTR) with a posted speed limit of 100 kilometers per hour. Using his radar
gun, he records the following speeds for 30 cars and trucks in each toll road:

JTR 80 85 75 85 95 100 95 110 120 130

100 105 105 110 110 120 100 100 100 100
80 60 75 130 125 120 100 105 140 120

LLTR 60 70 80 80 70 65 75 85 110 125

110 100 100 90 95 80 80 75 70 70
90 80 85 80 85 80 70 75 65 60

a. Construct a stem-and-leaf diagram for each toll road. (6 Points)

b. Is the distribution symmetric? Explain (Comment on the shape of the distribution) (2 Points)
c. Comment on similarities and differences between the two data sets (JTR and LLTR). (2
Points)
d. Find the Q1, median, Q3, and arithmetic mean from the JTR data! (6 Points)
e. Construct a box-plot diagram for JTR! Do you find any outlier’s data? Show the calculation
(6 Points)
f. Are the officer's concerns warranted in JTR? Why? (3 Points)

Problem II.
Serba Ada Stores sell shoes with a variety of brands, of which 2 brands with the highest sales units
are Adidas and Vans. But lately, many consumers think that the price of shoes at Serba Ada Store is
getting higher. Mr. Minto (shop owner) tried to analyze the complaint and observed the condition of
the sale of 2 brands of shoes for 3 years in a row. The data on prices and sales of shoes are as follows:

Brand Quantity (unit) Price (Rp.000)

Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019 Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019
Adidas 108 109 99 1280 1250 1350
Vans 92 99 95 1640 1760 1790

a. Help Mr. Minto find out if shoe prices have indeed increased over the past 3 years by
calculating the unweighted aggregate price index with the base year Dec2017. Explain the
results of your calculations. (4 Points)
b. Using Dec2019 as a base year, calculate the Weighted Price Index to find out whether prices
have risen constantly over the 3 periods. Explain what Weighted Index method you will use.

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 c. Using Dec2017 as a base year, calculate the Weighted Price Index for the 3 years. What
Weighted Index Method do you use? (4 Points)
d. Compare the results of your calculations for numbers a, b and c. Do the results show the same
value? Explain disadvantages using the unweighted aggregate price index. (4 Points)
e. In Dec2018, Mr. Minto invested IDR 1,000,000,000 (one billion rupiah) in the Serba Ada
Store, and in Dec 2019, the investment value increased to IDR 1,050,000,000 (one billion fifty
million rupiah). Calculate the nominal and real annual rate of return on investment Minto.
(note: use the results of calculation no. c as CPI). (5 Points)
f. By using the calculation results no. c, calculate inflation in 2019 that occurred. Compare and
explain why the value is different from the value no. c. (4 Points)

Problem III.
A. A group of students set up a coffee shop “Ayo Kumpul” near campus. It is known that 65% of all
consumers are fans of instant noodles and 60% of all consumers are students. In addition, 70% of
all consumers, who are students, are instant noodles fans.
1. What is the probability that a randomly selected consumer is a student or a fan of instant
noodles? (2 points)
2. If a randomly selected consumer is a fan of instant noodles, what is the probability that the
consumer is a student? (2 points)
3. What is the probability that a randomly selected consumer is not a fan of instant noodles
and not a student? (2 points)
4. Are the statement “Consumers are fans of instant noodles” and “Consumers are students”
mutually exclusive? Explain your opinion. (4 points)

B. A group of researcher conducted a study of soft drink preferences before an advertising campaign
for new cola product. The respondents consist of 130 teenagers and 130 adults. The researchers
got the following results.

Cola Non-Cola

Teenagers 95 35

Adults 50 80

1. What is the probability that the selected respondent is person who do not like cola? (3
points)
2. What is the probability that the selected respondents are adults who like cola? (3 points)
3. What is the probability that the selected respondents are teenagers who do not like cola?
(3 points)
4. If you were a member of the research team, what advice would you give to make the new
cola advertising campaign a success? Give illustrations / examples to support your
explanation. (6 points)

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Problem IV.
A small commuter airline flies planes that can seat up to 8 passengers. The airline has determined that
the probability that a ticketed passenger will not show up for a flight is 0.6. For each flight the airline
sells tickets to the first 10 people placing orders. The probability distribution for the number of tickets
sold per flight is shown in the accompanying table. Assume independence between the number of
tickets sold and the probability that a ticketed passenger will show up.

Number of tickets 6 7 8 9 10
Probability 0.25 0.35 0.25 0.10 0.05

a. What is the probability that only one of ticketed passengers showing up? (5 Points)
b. What is the probability that all of ticketed passengers showing up? (5 Points)
c. What is the probability that at least 8 ticketed passengers showing up? (7 Points)
d. For what proportion of the airline’s flights does the number of ticketed passengers showing up
exceed the number of available seats? Hint. It is a probability of two event. (8 Points)

__________ooo000ooo__________

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 Key Formulas :

=x
∑
=
x i
; x
∑ m=
f
; µ
∑=
x
; µ
∑m f
i i i i i

n n N N

∑ ( xi − x ) ∑ ( mi − x ) ∑ ( xi − µ ) ∑ ( mi − µ )
2 2 2 2
fi fi
s2 = ; s2 = ; σ2 = ; σ2
n −1 n −1 N N

P ( A | Bi ) P ( Bi )
P ( Bi | A ) =
P ( A | B1 ) P ( B1 ) + P ( A | B2 ) P ( B2 ) +  + P ( A | Bn ) P ( Bn )

E(X ) =∑ xi P ( X =
xi ) ; Var ( X ) = ∑ ( xi − µ ) P ( X =
xi ) 
2
µ= σ2 =


) (nx ) p x q n− x ; E ( X=) µ=
P ( X= x= X np ; Var ( X=
) σ=2 npq

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