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 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
ENERGY OUTLOOK
MALAYSIA ENERGY SCENARIO

Energy Commission
Contents : 3 September 2019
• National Energy Policy
• Energy Statistics
• Electricity:
 Integrated Planning
 20-Year Generation Development Plan
 Issues and Challenges in Renewable
Energy (RE)

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 Malaysia’s National Energy Policy

Petroleum National National National Four-Fuel Five-Fuel

Development Petroleum Energy Depletion Diversification Diversification
Act 1974 Policy 1975 Policy 1979 Policy 1980 Strategy 1981 Strategy 2001

• Vested on • To regulate • To ensure • To prolong • To pursue • Renewable

PETRONAS the downstream adequacy, lifespan of balanced Energy included
exclusive oil & gas security and Malaysia’s oil utilization of:
rights to industry via cost- reserves for
explore, the Petroleum effectiveness of future Hydro
develop and Regulations energy supply security & Hydro
produce 1974 stability of oil
• To promote
petroleum supply
efficient Gas
resources of utilization of Gas
Malaysia energy
• To minimize Coal
negative Coal
environmental
impacts in the
energy supply Crude Oil
Crude Oil
chain
 Primary Energy Supply Primary Energy Supply, 1990-2017
(Draft) 98,298 ktoe
ktoe
Hydro and RE: 6,947 ktoe ( 7.1 %)
120,000

Natural Gas: 41,200 ktoe ( 41.9 %)

100,000

Coal & Coke: 20,771 ktoe ( 21.1 %)

80,000

Crude Oil, Petroleum & Others: 29,380

ktoe ( 30.0 %)
60,000

40,000

20,000

- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hydropower & Renewables 915 1,053 997 1,262 1,652 1,540 1,243 790 1,113 1,668 1,612 1,687 1,329 1,056 1,329 1,313 1,567 1,522 1,964 1,627 1,577 1,874 2,463 3,216 3,594 3,582 5,198 6,947
Coal and Coke 1,326 1,564 1,640 1,352 1,563 1,612 1,677 1,622 1,731 1,940 2,486 2,970 3,642 5,316 7,109 6,889 7,299 8,848 9,782 10,623 14,777 14,772 15,882 15,067 15,357 17,406 18,744 20,771
Natural Gas (Sales Gas) 6,801 10,112 11,381 11,360 12,392 13,960 15,567 19,041 19,101 21,476 26,370 25,649 26,101 27,257 29,145 33,913 34,917 36,639 39,289 35,851 35,447 35,740 38,647 39,973 40,113 41,853 41,257 41,200
Crude Oil, Petroleum Products and Others 11,928 13,606 15,273 15,951 16,055 16,767 19,353 21,720 19,051 19,450 20,242 21,673 22,124 23,936 25,253 24,096 23,239 25,381 24,996 26,482 25,008 26,903 29,502 32,474 33,423 29,836 31,327 29,380
 Energy Balance Concept
Primary Energy Vs Energy Consumption
The flow of energy which is represented by the following equation;

Primary Energy Consumption

Energy (Gross inland consumption)

Transformation process
Production Final Energy consumption
+ +
Import Consumption of the energy
- transformation sector
Export +
- Distribution losses
Bunkers +
+/- Non - Energy Consumption
Stock Change
Trends in GDP, Primary Energy Supply and Final Energy
Consumption, 1990-2017 (Draft)
Primary Energy Supply
98,298 ktoe

Final Energy Consumption

62,489 ktoe (63.6%)
Final Energy Consumption by Sectors, 1990-2017 (Draft) Agriculture
674 ktoe (1.1 %)
Non-Energy Uses
Residential & Commercial 12,517 ktoe (20.0%)
7,796 ktoe (12.5 %)
ktoe
60,000
Transportation
24,039 ktoe (38.5 %)

50,000

40,000 Industry:
17,463 ktoe (27.9 %)

30,000

20,000

10,000

-
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Agriculture - 130 391 62 422 446 486 490 307 106 104 98 96 98 87 101 258 281 287 211 1,074 916 1,053 1,051 1,045 895 415 674
Non-Energy Use 838 1,071 1,222 2,027 1,817 2,994 1,744 2,298 2,023 1,799 2,250 2,378 2,511 2,345 2,183 2,173 2,819 2,957 2,876 3,868 3,696 6,377 7,497 7,277 6,217 5,928 8,729 12,517
Residential and Commercial 1,622 1,721 1,867 2,055 2,300 2,556 3,162 3,073 3,314 3,653 3,868 4,048 4,387 4,399 4,754 5,134 5,424 6,197 6,205 6,336 6,951 6,993 7,065 7,403 7,459 7,559 8,049 7,796
Transport* 5,386 5,806 6,226 6,558 7,262 7,827 8,951 10,201 9,793 11,393 12,071 13,137 13,442 14,271 15,385 15,293 14,819 15,717 16,395 16,119 16,828 17,070 19,757 22,357 24,327 23,435 24,004 24,039
Industrial 5,276 5,809 6,455 7,012 7,283 8,060 9,443 10,106 10,121 10,277 11,406 11,852 12,854 13,472 14,914 15,583 15,248 16,454 16,205 14,312 12,928 12,100 13,919 13,496 13,162 13,989 16,019 17,463
ktoe
Final Energy Consumption by Type of
Fuels, 1990-2017 (Draft)
62,489 ktoe Coal & Coke
60,000 1804 ktoe (2.9 %)
Gas 16,838 ktoe
(26.9 %)

50,000
Electricity 12,607 ktoe
(20.2 %)

40,000

Petroleum Products:
30,000 31,241 ktoe (50.0 %)

20,000

10,000

- 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coal and Coke 513 599 672 487 598 712 727 740 767 608 991 977 1,086 1,212 1,305 1,348 1,335 1,362 1,713 1,613 1,826 1,759 1,744 1,539 1,709 1,778 1,785 1,804
Natural Gas 1,069 1,099 1,344 1,701 1,660 1,654 2,079 2,465 2,726 3,023 3,862 4,620 5,643 5,886 6,490 6,981 7,562 7,709 7,818 6,802 6,254 8,515 10,206 10,076 9,641 9,566 12,304 16,838
Electricity 1,715 1,925 2,218 2,450 2,932 3,375 3,777 4,384 4,577 4,815 5,263 5,594 5,922 6,313 6,642 6,944 7,272 7,683 7,986 8,286 8,993 9,236 10,011 10,590 11,042 11,375 12,392 12,607
Petroleum Products and Others 9,825 10,914 11,927 13,075 13,894 16,142 17,203 18,578 17,488 18,782 19,582 20,323 20,638 21,175 22,886 23,012 22,398 24,852 24,451 24,145 24,403 23,946 27,329 29,379 29,817 29,087 30,737 31,241
 PRESENTATION CONTENTS

ELECTRICITY: TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE ENERGY OUTLOOK

 Integrated Planning
 20-Year Generation Development Plan
 Issues and Challenges in Renewable Energy (RE)

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 The Generation, Transmission, Distribution and Supply of
Electricity to Consumers

Grid Code Distribution Code

Co-Generation

Renewable Energy

Transmission
500KV, 275KV, Distribution
132KV 33KV, 11KV, 0.415KV

Renewable Energy

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 INTEGRATED PLANNING

In collaboration with

Integrated
Generation
Planning
and criteria &
Demand
forecasting

Transmission generation
plan
Planning SUPPLY DEMAND
Transmis
sion &
network
planning

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 FORECASTING THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY DEMAND

Integration of RE and EE in the Electricity Forecast

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 PLANNING CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS
The Reserve Margin required to
achieve LOLH 24 hours/year: 45% CO2 intensity
 2020 – 2024: 28% reduction target by
 2025 – 2029: 25% OPTIMUM COP21: Climate 2030 from base year
 2030 – 2034: 23% RESERVE Change 2005
MARGIN Agreement
 2035 – 2037: 20%

DEMAND
FORECAST  HHI: 0.4 by 2025
Based on The Malaysian Grid Code &
OTHER  UOR: Performance
Transmission System Reliability CAGR %
Standards, Peninsular system adopts TECHNICAL past 3 years & PPA/SLA
LOLE/LOLP (1 day/year) as its 2018 – 2020 1.9 CRITERIA  Fuel price: Fuel price
reliability index. policy
2020 – 2030 1.2
2030 - 2038 1.0

 Review of direct award

MALAYSIA NEW generation project
TRANSMISSION GOVERNMENT  RE target 20% by 2025
SYSTEM RELIABILITY DIRECTION &  EE initiatives
STANDARD ASPIRATION
 Reduce dependence on coal
 No nuclear

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 20-YEAR PLANNING ANALYSIS

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 SUPPLY & DEMAND OVERVIEW Q1 2019
Peak Demand Reserve Margin GENERATION SUPPLY
23,982MW
Metered customers
DEMAND CONTRIBUTORS
29% 46%

GAS
%, sales
INDUSTRY

COAL
40% 42%
COMMERCIAL

35%

HYDRO
11%
DOMESTIC 18,566MW*
23% 18 Apr 2019

SOLAR
1%
OTHERS Tx connected

2%

CONNECTION
<1%

INTER-
100MW
Unmetered customers *Excluding demand served by: NON-FIRM
 Reduced number of supplied by
 FiT 436MW (as of Dec 2018)
planting up; CO-GEN / SELF-GEN
 Reduced system MW, capacity  LSS at Distribution 81.5MW
cost;
 Emission avoidance. 45 LSS Awarded Projects of
1,831MW 1,029MW; and in operation
until Q1 2019 = 360MW

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or published, without consent of Suruhanjaya Tenaga
 CAPACITY MIX IN 2025 (INCLUSIVE RE OFF-GRID)

100%
5%
0% 8% 10% 11% 13%
0% 16% 18%
90% 10% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19%
10% 9% 9% 8%
80% 8% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
8% 2%
8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7%
8%
70%

45% 37%
60% 43% 39%
41% 37% 35%
32% 32% 34% 33% 34%
50% 38% 42% 43% 40%
43% 43% 43% 43%

40%

30%

44% 42%
20% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37%
32% 29% 31%
28% 28% 28% 28% 29%
10%

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Coal Gas Hydro Interconnection RE

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 GENERATION MIX IN 2025 (RE CONTRIBUTES ABOUT 8%)

Potential reduction of CO2 emission intensity up to 49% by 2030 (against 45% reduction target by 2030)
100% 1%
1% 2%
1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
4% 4% 4% 4%
6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
90%
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

80% 27% 25% 24% 25%

35% 33% 34% 25% 26% 26%
25%
70% 30%
38% 42% 40%
41% 42% 43% 44% 44%
60%

0.52 0.52 0.51

0.48 0.49
50% 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.47
0.44
0.41
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
40%

67% 67% 67% 65% 63% 62% 63% 61%

30% 59% 60% 60%
56%
48% 46%
45% 44% 43% 43% 42% 45%
20%

10%

0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Coal Gas Hydro Interconnection RE HHI

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 JPPPET 2018 RESULT - Subject to further analysis

Based on last JPPPET 2018, Peninsular Malaysia requires 3,991MW of RE to achieve the 20% RE target in 2025

RE Capacity (MW) for Peninsular Malaysia

(20% RE
• Solid waste, 30MW Capacity)
• Small hydro, 287MW
3,991 6,371
• Biomass, 64MW
• Biogas, 74MW
Capacity (MW)

• Solar PV, 5MW

• LSS, 1,058MW

• RE Self Gen,
• Solid waste, 9MW
12MW
• Small hydro, 24MW • RE Cogen, 1,519
• Biomass, 32MW 359MW
• Biogas, 51MW
• Solar PV, 337MW
• LSS & NEM, 38MW 371
490

Operational RE Capacity Off-grid RE Cogen (Self- Committed RE Projects New RE Capacity Required Total RE Capacity
(FiT, NEM, LSS1) consumption) (Awarded) (up to 2025) (in 2025)
(as of Jun 2018) (FiT, LSS1, LSS2)
(up to 2020)

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 RE ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

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 Total Solar MW Generation
400
On 25.5.2019
350 346.93 MW

300
MW Production

250
52.91%
200

150

100

50

0
06:30

13:52

23:50
00:00
00:26
00:52
01:18
01:44
02:10
02:36
03:02
03:28
03:54
04:20
04:46
05:12
05:38
06:04

06:56
07:22
07:48
08:14
08:40
09:06
09:32
09:58
10:24
10:50
11:16
11:42
12:08
12:34
13:00
13:26

14:18
14:44
15:10
15:36
16:02
16:28
16:54
17:20
17:46
18:12
18:38
19:04
19:30
19:56
20:22
20:48
21:14
21:40
22:06
22:32
22:58
23:24
-50
Time
Time

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Penetration Limit Assessment for Peninsular Malaysia
System is able to accommodate Stability concerns zone
Resulted Energy
Mix at 2030 1.4% 2.8% 3.9% 5.2% 7.9% 10.5% 13.1% 15.6% 18.0%
PV Penetration
5% 10% 15% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Level

2014

>16%
No significant 43%
Evening peak
impact to the 60% & 70% Severe
becomes dominant Load-shedding +
system operation Solar Curtailments
>27% Post event voltage
(150 & 630 GWH) +
Coal generators stability issues
Dispatch schedule
affected (difficult to resolve)
not feasible with all
33% & 38% reliability constraints
Notes: Load shedding zone
 In 2020: grid system is able to take up to 2400MW Possible to mitigate
 Additional spinning reserve of 11% PV with more costly >43%
 Cost of electricity increases with increased solar PV dispatch In low demand days, the actual maximum
 CO2 emission decreases as solar PV increases solar penetration, after scheduled
 Technical limit for 2025 and 2030 is found at 30-33% PV, curtailment, is observed at 43%. The
required mitigation with more costly dispatch. system is not stable in PSS®E studies.
(System operating conditions for PSSE studies are based on economic PV Inverters with inertia response could
dispatch schedule computed from PLEXOS) improve stability.

Confidential

21 DNV GL © 2017 [TNB 42/2018] vRE Penetration Study, 4th Steering Committee Meeting 18 July 2018
 Renewable Energy Penetration Study for Peninsular Malaysia

Study
Results and
Analysis –
Peninsular

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 DIRECT PROCUMENT PROJECTS – 200MW/200MW

RE Installed Capacity Update: (460.5 MW) LSS 1 PROJECTS (P1: 42-45sen, P2/P3: 40-43sen )
310MW/354MW
06.05.2019
LSS 2 PROJECTS (P1:38-41sen, P2:37-40sen,
P3: 34-38sen) - 385 MW – under construction
1.

Solar PV (NEM, FIT ) LSS 3 – 500 MW - in Tendering process

(390.0657 MW)
FIT for 400 Licensee (380.26 MW)
Mini Hydro NEM- 9.8057 MW
Total Installed Cap: 390.0657 MW

(900.5657 MW)

Total RE Installed Cap: 1,115.8557 MW

FIT for 10 Licensee
Total Cap: 50.30 MW

Biomass
Landfill / Biogas / Pome
FIT for 9 Licensee Total Cap:
FIT for 44 Licensee
95.55 MW
Total Cap: 69.44 MW
 CHALLENGES IN RE

 Land use intensity

 Intermittency of variable RE
 Technology cost & pricing

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 49MW LSS PLANT, SUNGAI SIPUT, PERAK

BUILDING THE NATION: TOWARDS WORLD CLASS ENERGY SECTOR

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 50MW LSS PLANT, SEPANG, SELANGOR

BUILDING THE NATION: TOWARDS WORLD CLASS ENERGY SECTOR

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or published, without consent of Suruhanjaya Tenaga
 JPPPET 2018 RESULT - Subject to further analysis

Based on last JPPPET 2018, Peninsular Malaysia requires 3,991MW of RE to achieve the 20% RE target in 2025

RE Capacity (MW) for Peninsular Malaysia

(20% RE
• Solid waste, 30MW Capacity)
• Small hydro, 287MW
3,991 6,371
• Biomass, 64MW
• Biogas, 74MW
Capacity (MW)

• Solar PV, 5MW

• LSS, 1,058MW

• RE Self Gen,
• Solid waste, 9MW
12MW
• Small hydro, 24MW • RE Cogen, 1,519
• Biomass, 32MW 359MW
• Biogas, 51MW
• Solar PV, 337MW
• LSS & NEM, 38MW 371
490

Operational RE Capacity Off-grid RE Cogen (Self- Committed RE Projects New RE Capacity Required Total RE Capacity
(FiT, NEM, LSS1) consumption) (Awarded) (up to 2025) (in 2025)
(as of Jun 2018) (FiT, LSS1, LSS2)
(up to 2020)

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or published, without consent of Suruhanjaya Tenaga
Disclaimer : Discussion and outcomes of the meeting shall not be disclosed to any party. No part or parts may be copied, distributed, retransmitted, broadcasted, displayed, reproduced
or published, without consent of Suruhanjaya Tenaga