New York State Common Core

Mathematics Curriculum
ALGEBRA II • MODULE 4

Topic A
Probability
S-IC.A.2, S-CP.A.1, S-CP.A.2, S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.4, S-CP.A.5, S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7

Focus Standards: S-IC.A.2 Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating
process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up
with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model?
S-CP.A.1 Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics
(or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other
events (“or,” “and,” “not”).
S-CP.A.2 Understand that two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent if the probability of 𝐴 and 𝐵
occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to
determine if they are independent.
S-CP.A.3 Understand the conditional probability of 𝐴 given 𝐵 as 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵)/𝑃(𝐵), and interpret
independence of 𝐴 and 𝐵 as saying that the conditional probability of 𝐴 given 𝐵 is the
same as the probability of 𝐴, and the conditional probability of 𝐵 given 𝐴 is the same as
the probability of 𝐵.
S-CP.A.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are
associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space
to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. For
example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite
subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly
selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth
grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.
S-CP.A.5 Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in
everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of
having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have
lung cancer.
S-CP.B.6 Find the conditional probability of 𝐴 given 𝐵 as the fraction of 𝐵’s outcomes that also
belong to 𝐴, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.
S-CP.B.7 Apply the Addition Rule, 𝑃(𝐴 or 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵), and interpret the
answer in terms of the model.

Topic A: Probability
9
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 NYS COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS CURRICULUM Topic A M4
ALGEBRA II

Instructional Days: 7
1
Lesson 1: Chance Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events (E)
Lesson 2: Calculating Probabilities of Events Using Two-Way Tables (P)
Lessons 3-4: Calculating Conditional Probabilities and Evaluating Independence Using Two-Way Tables (P, P)
Lesson 5: Events and Venn Diagrams (P)
Lessons 6-7: Probability Rules (P, P)

Fundamental ideas from Grade 7 are revisited and extended to allow students to build a more formal
understanding of probability. Students expand their understanding of chance experiments, sample space,
and events to the more complex understanding of events defined as unions, intersections, and complements
(S-CP.A.1). Students develop this understanding as they consider events that can be described as unions and
intersections in the context of a game involving cards and spinners. One such game is introduced in Lesson 1,
and then students explore further variations of the game in the lesson’s Problem Set. Students also consider
whether observations from a chance experiment are consistent with a given probability model (S-IC.A.2).
Students calculate probabilities of unions and intersections using data in two-way data tables and interpret
them in context (S-CP.A.4). Students deepen their understanding by creating hypothetical 1000 two-way
tables (i.e., tables based on a hypothetical population of 1,000 observations) and then use these tables to
calculate probabilities. Students use given probability information to determine the marginal totals and
individual cell counts. This table then allows students to calculate conditional probabilities, as well as
probabilities of unions, intersections, and complements, without the need for formal probability rules.
Students are introduced to conditional probability (S-CP.A.3, S-CP.A.5), which is used to illustrate the
important concept of independence by describing two events, 𝐴 and 𝐵, as independent if the conditional
probability of 𝐴 given 𝐵 is not equal to the unconditional probability of 𝐴. In this case, knowing that event 𝐵
has occurred does not change the assessment of the probability that event 𝐴 has also occurred (S-CP.A.2,
S-CP.A.5). Students use two-way tables to determine if two
events are independent by calculating and interpreting
conditional probabilities. In Lesson 3, students are
presented with athletic participation data from Rufus King
High School in two-way frequency tables, and conditional
probabilities are calculated using column or row
summaries. The conditional probabilities are then used to
investigate whether or not there is a connection between
two events.
Students are also introduced to Venn diagrams to
represent the sample space and various events. Students
see how the regions of a Venn diagram connect to the cells
of a two-way table. Venn diagrams also help students
understand probability formulas involving the formal
symbols of union, intersection, and complement.

1
Lesson Structure Key: P-Problem Set Lesson, M-Modeling Cycle Lesson, E-Exploration Lesson, S-Socratic Lesson

Topic A: Probability
10
This work is licensed under a
This work is derived from Eureka Math ™ and licensed by Great Minds. ©2015 Great Minds. eureka-math.org
This file derived from ALG II-M4-TE-1.3.0-09.2015 Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
 NYS COMMON CORE MATHEMATICS CURRICULUM Topic A M4
ALGEBRA II

Additionally, a Venn diagram can show how subtracting the probability of an event from 1 enables students
to acquire the probability of the complement of the event and why the probability of the intersection of two
events is subtracted from the sum of event probabilities when calculating the probability of the union of two
events.
The final lessons in this topic introduce probability rules (the multiplication rule for independent events, the
addition rule for the union of two events, and the complement rule for the complement of an event)
(S-CP.B.6, S-CP.B.7). Students use the multiplication rule for independent events to calculate the probability
of the intersection of two events. Students interpret independence based on the conditional probability and
its connection to the multiplication rule.

Topic A: Probability
11
This work is licensed under a
This work is derived from Eureka Math ™ and licensed by Great Minds. ©2015 Great Minds. eureka-math.org
This file derived from ALG II-M4-TE-1.3.0-09.2015 Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.