SCHOOL OF CIVIL AND

ENVIROMENTAL ENGINEERING

Transport Engineering
CENG 3201

Chapter 2
Transportation Planning and
Modeling

Tamru T.

2012 EC (2019/20GC)
1st Sem
 Lecture Overview
 Transportation Planning
 Introduction

 Transportation Planning Process

 Transportation Policy

 The transport policy formulation process

 Transportation Modeling
 Modeling principles

 Transport Modeling

 Prerequisite for transport modeling

 The Four step model

 Evaluation and Economic Appraisal of transport projects

 Valuing Transport Costs and Benefits

 Cost-Benefit Analysis: the Appraisal Process

2
 Introduction
 Transportation Planning
Help to create
 High quality transportation facilities and
services
 Reasonable cost

 Minimal environmental impact

 Enhance economic activity.

3
 Introduction Cont…
 Transportation Planning
 A process that develops information to
help make decisions on the future
development and management of
transportation systems.
 Focused on developing long range (15-30
years) transportation plans.
 Balance supply with future travel demand.
4
 Introduction Cont…

 Transportation Planning
Addresses Problems
 Travel demand alternatives for congestion reduction
 Land use/transportation coordination
 Fuel reduction measures
 Air quality measures
 Safety measures
 Economic development/redevelopment activity
5
 Transportation Planning Process
Problem Solution Solution Evaluation Implementation
Definition Generation Analysis and and Monitoring
Choice

Feedback to all steps

 The emergence of additional

performance problems
 The degree that the problem
has been addressed
 Real-world performance
6
 Transport Policy
 Transportation Policy

Is a guiding principle (plan of action) that influences how the

transport system should behave to achieve desired outcomes and
avoid transport problems.
Include
 Road expansion plans,
 Transit system priorities,
 Fuel tax,
 Emission limits etc.

7
 Transport Policy Cont…
 Objectives:- is a statement of a desired end-state.
Objectives in transport policy can be categorized
 Statements of Vision:- Broad indications of the type of area
which politicians or the public wish to see.
 Higher level objectives:- referred to as aims or goals, identify
attributes of transport system, or its side effects, which can be
improved as a means of realizing the vision.
 Quantified objectives:- provide a clear basis for assessing
performance of the strategy, but they do require careful
definition if the specified thresholds are to be realistic.
 Solution-specific ‘objectives’:- specifying solutions within the
objectives and may lead to an overall strategy which is less
appropriate to the area’s needs. 8
 Transport Policy Cont…

 The transport policy formulation process

1. Objective-led strategy formulation
2. Problem oriented approach

9
 Transport Policy Cont…
1. Objective-led strategy formulation

10
 Transport Policy Cont…
1. Objective-led strategy formulation
 Offers a logical basis for proposing solutions, and also for
assessing any proposals offered by others.
 Ensures that the appraisal of alternatives is conducted in a
logical, consistent, and comprehensive way against the full
set of objectives.
 Assessing the performance of the implemented measures
improves the ability to judge the potential of similar
measures elsewhere, and to predict their impact.
 Regular monitoring provides a means of checking not just
on the scale of current problems, but also, through attitude
surveys, on the perception of those problems. 11
 Transport Policy Cont…
2. Problem oriented approach
 Start by defining types of problems

 Starts at the second box in the Objective-

led strategy formulation flow chart

 Merit = Being easily understood

 Demerit = Dependent on developing a full

list of potential problems at the outset.

12
 Transport Policy Cont…
 Policy Instruments/Measures
The means by which the objectives can be
achieved, and problems overcome.
 Infrastructures
 Management
 Information
 Pricing
 Land use
 Attitudinal and behavioral measures
13
 Transport Modeling
 Modeling principles
 Models are a simplified representation of a part of
reality.
 Is only realistic from a particular perspective.
 During their formulation, calibration and use, planners
can also learn much about the behavior and internal
workings of the system under scrutiny.
 Their function is to give insight into complex
interrelationships in the real world and to enable
statements about what (most probably) will happen if
changes occur or put in that (part of) reality.
14
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Transport models
 Study of the behavior of individuals in making

decisions regarding the provision and use of

transport.
 Are abstract mathematical models
Y = f (a, X)
Dependent Independent
variable variables
15
Transport Modeling Cont…

Model formulation process 16

 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Purposes of mathematical models
 To gain a more structural analysis of the complex transport system
 To find out which factors play an important role, and how sensitive
the transport system is to changes in the different factors
 To analyze the effect of alternative traffic projects and contribute
towards their economic appraisal
 To help transport planners make reliable predictions and forecasts of
future changes in usage of traffic facilities for sake of facility design,
control and operation.
 To enable quantified calculations of expected effects in the
transportation system when changes (policy measures or interventions)
are put in the system
 To find design parameters that lead to an optimal performance of the
modeled system
17
 Transport Modeling
 Prerequisite for transport modeling
 Fundamental characteristics of transport
problems,
 Basic terms & Definitions (Ref. Lec. Note pp 10-13)

 Gather the necessary data and

 Understand basic regression analysis

18
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Fundamental characteristics of transport problems
 Transport services come with side effects
 The demand for transport is derived; it is not an end by itself.
 Transport demand takes place over space.
 Both transport demand and supply have very strong dynamic
elements.
 Transport is a service and not a good.
 The transport system requires fixed assets and the mobile units.
 Transport infrastructure is lumpy
 Transport investment has an important political role.
 The demand for transport services is highly qualitative and
differentiated.
19
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Data requirements
 Socio-economic data
 Travel surveys

 Network data

 Land use inventory

20
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Data required for modeling is primarily
collected through surveys;
 Household survey
 External cordon and Intercept surveys
 Travel Diary
 O-D survey
 Questionnaire
 In-house and Roadside Interviews
21
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 Mathematical background

Multiple regression analysis

Elementary statistics

22
 Transport Modeling Cont…
 The Four step model
Aims to establish the spatial distribution of travel explicitly by means of an
appropriate system of zones.
 Trip generation:- forecasts the number of trips that will
be made.
 Trip distribution:- determines where the trips will go.

 Mode usage:- how the trips will be divided among the

available modes of travel.

 Trip assignment:- predicts the routes that the trips will

take, resulting in traffic forecasts for

the highway system and rider-ship
forecasts for the transit system. 23
 Trip Generation
 Journey:- is a one-way movement from a point of origin to a point of
destination.
 Home-Based (HB) Trip:- one where the home of the trip maker is either the
origin or the destination of the journey.
 Non-Home- Based Trip:- one where neither end of the trip is the home of
the traveler.
 Trip Production:- is the home end of an HB trip or the origin of an NHB
trip.
 Trip Attraction:-is the non-home end of an HB trip or the destination of an
NHB trip.

24
 Example 1 (quiz)
Determine the total trip generated for each case below.

i
Home Work

Shop

ii
Home School Work

Shop
25
 Trip Generation
Define the magnitude of total daily travel in the model
system, at the household and zonal level, for various trip
purposes (activities).
Aims at predicting the total number of trips produced in the
zone and attracted by it respectively for each TAZ of the
study area.
It has two basic functions:
 To develop a relationship between trip production or attraction

and land use, and

 To use the relationship developed to estimate the number of

trips generated at some future date under a new set of land-use

conditions. 26
 Trip Generation Cont…
 Factors which have considerable impact on
the trip producing capacity of a TAZ are:
 Income
 Car ownership HH Trip
Generation
 Household structure Studies
 Family size
Zonal Trip
 Value of land Generation
 Residential density Studies
Rarely Used
 Accessibility for Trip
Generation
Studies 27
 Trip Generation Cont…
 Classifications of trips
By trip Purpose:- In the case HB trips
 Trip to work
 Trip to School or Collage
 Shopping trips
 Social and recreational and
 Other trips
By time of Day
 Peak Period
 Off-Peak Period
By Person type
 Income Level
 Car Ownership
 Household size and Structure
28
 Trip Generation Cont…
 Trip generation models

 Growth factor,
 Regression,
 Discrete choice and
 Category classification.

29
 Growth factor Modeling
 Tries to predict the number of trips produced or
attracted by a house hold or a zone as a linear
function of explanatory variables.
 What Trips to be Considered
 What is the minimum age to be included in the analysis
The number
Number of
of future
Current
trips in the 𝑇𝑖=𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑖 Trips
zone

Growth
Factor
30
 Growth factor Modeling Cont…
The growth factor 𝑓𝑖 depends on
 Population (P) of the zone,
 Average house hold Income (I),

 Average vehicle ownership (V).

𝑓𝑖=𝑓(𝑃𝑖𝑑,𝐼𝑖𝑑,𝑉𝑖𝑑) , d= design year

𝑓(𝑃𝑖𝑐,𝐼𝑖𝑐,𝑉𝑖𝑐) c=current year
 Merits= simple and easy to understand,

 Demerit= Over-estimated number of trips

31
 Example 2

Consider a Zone with 250 households with one car

and 250 households without car. Assuming we
Know the average trip generation rates of each
group:
Car-owning households produce: 6.0 trips/day
Non-Car-owning households produce: 2.5 trips/day.
Future situation 500 households with one car.

32
 Regression analysis model
 Used to establish a statistical relationship between the
number of trips produced and the characteristics of the
individuals, the zone, and the transportation network.
𝑇𝑖=a0 + a1x1 + a2x2 + … aixi… + akxk

where:-
xi are explanatory variables such as income, car ownership,
population etc. and
Ti is generated trip.
ai are parameters determined through calibration process.
33
 Regression analysis model Cont…

Two types of regression models are commonly used.

 Zonal-Based Multiple Regression
 Household-Based Regression

34
 Balancing trip generation

 Prior to proceeding to Trip Distribution step, it is

important to ensure that the production and attractions
within the study area are equal.
 Productions are generally considered to be more
accurate.
 Attraction are balanced proportionality to match
productions within each zone.
 Sample example…
35
 Example 3
Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the
household size done from the field survey. It was
found that the household size are 1, 2, 3 and 4. The
trip rates of the corresponding household is as
shown in the table below. Fit a linear equation
relating trip rate and household size.
Household size(x)
1 2 3 4
Trips 1 2 4 6
per 2 4 5 7
day(y) 2 3 3 4
5 9 12 17 36
 Example 3-1
A mixed use traffic analysis zone has 10000 households (HH),
20,000 m2 of office space (OS) and 500 commercial center
units (CU). Trips produced (Yp) and Trip attracted (Ya) in
area can be estimated using a regression model below.
Yp= 1.7HH
Ya=0.8OS + 2CU

a) Calculate the total trips produced and attracted in the zone.

b) Forecast the total trips produced and attracted in the zone 5
years from now if there is a 2% annual household population
decrease and 5% office space increase.

37
 Ex. 4 (Class Exercise)
Table 1 Presents the data collected in a house hold (HH) survey

38
Class Exe. Con.

39
Trip Distribution

40
 Trip Distribution
 Provides the planner with the numbers of trip
productions and trip attraction that each zone
will have.
 Determine where the trips produced in each
zone will go- how they will be divided among
all other zones in the study area.
 Produce O-D matrix that shows the number of
trips originated in the study zone and where
these trips are destined to.
 The main diagonal corresponds to Intra-Zonal
Trips
41
Trip Distribution Cont…

42
 Trip Distribution Cont…

 𝑇𝑖𝑗 is the number of trips between origin 𝑖 and destination 𝑗.

 𝑂𝑖 is the total number of trips originating in zone 𝑖 and
 𝐷𝑗 is the total number of trips attracted to zone 𝑗.
43
 Trip Distribution Cont…

 Two basic categories of aggregate trip

distribution methods predominate in
urban transportation planning are:
 The Growth Factor methods

 The Gravity Model

44
 The Growth Factor Methods
 Involve scaling an existing matrix (called base matrix)
by applying multiplicative factors (often derived from
predicted productions and/or attractions) to matrix
cells.
 The base year matrix contains an estimate of the trips
being made in the base year.
 Uniform Growth Factor
 Singly Constrained Growth-Factor
 Doubly Constrained Growth Factor
45
 The Growth Factor Methods Cont…
Uniform Growth Factor
 A uniform growth rate can be applied
If the only information available is
about a general growth rate for the
whole study area.
𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝜏𝑡𝑖𝑗
Where:- τ is the uniform growth factor,
𝑡𝑖𝑗 is the previous total number of trips and
𝑇𝑖𝑗 is the expected total number of trips. 46
The Growth Factor Methods Cont…

47
 Example 5
Given the base-year initial matrix below, estimate
the forecast year matrix if the total trips would
increase to 34.

48
 The Growth Factor Methods Cont…
Singly Constrained Growth-Factor
 If information is available on the
expected growth of either trips
originating or trips attracted to each
zone, it will result in origin-specific τi
and destination-specific τj growth factors
respectively.
𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝜏j𝑡𝑖𝑗 for origin-specific factors
𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝜏i𝑡𝑖𝑗 for destination-specific factors
49
 The Growth Factor Methods Cont…
Case 1: Origin constrained growth factor is used when
estimation of growth in origin is more reliable
than that in destination

Case 2: Destination constrained growth factor is used

when estimation of growth in destination is more
reliable than that in origin

50
 The Growth Factor Methods Cont…

Case 3: Average zonal growth factor is used when

estimations of growth in origin and destination
are equally reliable

51
 Example 6
Given the base-year initial matrix below, estimate the
forecast year matrix if Ox=14,  Oy=8,  Oz=12,
 Dx=16,  Dy=9,  Dz=9.
Use singly constrained (origin) and average zone
growth factor

52
 Class Exercise
To
W X Y Z Total Forecast
W 5 100 200 150 455 520
X 150 40 160 190 540 630
From

Y 210 130 30 320 690 520

Z 270 50 65 18 403 560
Total 635 320 455 678 2088
Forecast 560 460 580 630

Use uniform growth, singly constrained (origin also Destination) and

average zone growth factor, estimate forecasted O-D matrix 53
 The Growth Factor Methods Cont…
Doubly Constrained Growth Factor
 When information is available on the growth in the
number of trips originating and terminating in each
zone, we know that there will be different growth rates
for trips in and out of each zone and consequently
having two sets of growth factors for each zone.
 Iterative methods are proposed to obtain an estimated
trip matrix which satisfies both sets of trip-end
constraints, or the two sets of growth factors.
𝑇𝑖𝑗= 𝑡𝑖𝑗𝜏𝑖𝜏𝑗𝐴𝑖𝐵𝑗
𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝑡𝑖𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑏𝑗
54
 Doubly Constrained Growth Factor
Furness Method
Furness suggests updating the initial matrix by
 adjusting alternatively both the constraints to
origins and destinations, until convergence is
reached.
 This technique is iterative since the solution
for ai depends on bj, and vice versa.

55
 Doubly Constrained Growth Cont…
The procedure is:
 Set 𝑏𝑗 = 1
 With 𝑏𝑗 = 1, solve for 𝑎𝑖 to satisfy trip generation
constraint ( Σ𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝑂𝑖𝑗).
 With 𝑎𝑖, solve for 𝑏𝑗 to satisfy trip attraction constraint
(Σ𝑇𝑖𝑗=𝐷𝑗𝑖).
 Update matrix and check for errors.
 Repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.

56
 Example 7
 Given the base-year initial matrix below, estimate the
forecast year matrix using the Furness method if
Ox=14, Oy=8, Oz=12, Dx=16, Dy=9, Dz=9.
Stop the iteration when the origin and destination
growth factors a and b are between 0.95 and 1.05.

57
 Growth Factor Cont…
The advantages of Growth Factor method are:
 Simple to understand.
 Preserve observed trip pattern.
 Useful in short term-planning.
The limitations are:
o Depends heavily on the observed trip pattern.
o It cannot explain unobserved trips.
o Do not consider changes in travel cost.
o Not suitable for policy studies like introduction of a mode.
58
 Class Exercise
To
1 2 3 4 Total Forecast
1 5 50 100 200 355 400
2 50 5 100 300 455 460
From

3 50 100 5 100 255 400

4 100 200 250 20 570 702
Total 205 355 455 620 1635
Forecast 260 400 500 802

Use, Doubly constrained estimate forecasted O-D matrix (stop iteration

if ai and bj b/n 0.95 &1.05)
59
 The Gravity model
The number of trips between two zones is directly related to
activities in the two zones, and inversely related to the
separation between the zones as a function of the
generalized cost.
 𝑇𝑖𝑗= 𝛼𝑂𝑖𝐷𝑗𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗)

Where: α is the proportionality factor and

f(cij) is a generalized function of the travel
costs with one or more parameters for calibration.
60
 The Gravity model Cont…
The need to satisfy the constraints (ΣTij=Oi and ΣTij=Dj) requires
replacing the single proportionality factor α by two sets of balancing
factors Ai and Bj as in the Furness model, yielding:
𝑇𝑖𝑗= 𝐴𝑖𝐵𝑗𝑂𝑖𝐷𝑗𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗)

The deterrence function f(cij) is the essence of the gravity model.

𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗)=exp(−𝛽𝑐𝑖𝑗)………Exponential
𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗)=𝑐𝑖𝑗−𝑛 ……………Power
𝑓(𝑐𝑖𝑗)=m/ 𝑐𝑖𝑗 ……………Reciprocal
m , n and 𝛽 have to be calibrated against base year &
assume to stay constant in the forecast year 61
 Example 8-1
The productions from zone 1, 2 and 3 are 98, 106, 122
and attractions to zone 1,2 and 3 are 102, 118, 106. The
function f(cij) is defined as f(cij)=1/cij2 The cost
matrix is as shown below , develop O-D matrix to meet
the target use singly constrained.
Zone
Cost matrix
1 2 3 Sum
Zone 1 98
2 106
3 122
Sum 102 118 106 62
 Exercise
Consider the cost matrix shown below together with
the total trip matrix and attempt to estimate the O-D
matrix of the gravity model .
f(𝑐𝑖𝑗) = exp(−𝛽𝑐𝑖𝑗) , 𝛽=0.1
Cost matrix
Trip productions and trip attractions
1 2 3 4 Oi
1 3 11 18 22 400
2 12 3 13 19 460
3 15.5 13 5 7 400
4 24 18 8 5 702
Dj 260 400 500 802 1962
63
 The Gravity model Other approach
Singly constrained gravity model.
This is the most widely used trip distribution model which
states that the number of trips between two zones is
directly proportional to the number of trip attraction
generated by the zone of destination and inversely
proportional to a function of time of travel between the
two zones.

64
 The Gravity model
Other approach

Mathematically, the gravity model is expressed as

 A j Fij K ij 
Tij  Pi  
  A j Fij K ij 
Where
Tij = number of trips that are produced in zone i and attracted to zone j
Pi = the total number of trips produced in zone i
Aj = number of trips attracted to zone j
Fij = a value which has an inverse function of travel time

Kij = socioeconomic adjustment factor for interchange ij

65
 The Gravity model
Other approach
Hence, calculate the adjusted attraction factor according
to the following formula
Aj
A jk  A j ( k 1)
C j ( k 1)
Where
Ajk = adjusted attraction factor for attraction zone (column) j, iteration k
Ajk = Aj when k=1
Cjk = actual attraction (column) total for zone j, iteration k
Aj = desired attraction total for attraction zone (column) j
j = attraction zone number, j=1, 2, 3…..n
n = number of zones
k = iteration number, k=1, 2, 3….n
66
m= number of iteration
 Example 8-2
For study area consisting of three zones, the number of
production, attraction, and average travel times between each
zone is given as shown in the following tables. Compute the
intra zonal trips ( Zone to zone trips). Assume kij=1 for all.
Table 1: Total no. of Trip production and Table 3: F values vs travel time
Attraction in each zone.
Time(min) F
Zone 1 2 3 Total
1 82
Trip production 140 330 280 750
2 52
Trip attraction 300 270 180 750
3 50
Table 2: Travel time between zones (min) 4 41

Zones 1 2 3 5 39

1 5 2 3 6 26

2 2 6 6 7 20

3 3 6 5 8 13 67
QUESTIONS?

68
Modal Choice

69
 Modal Choice
 In this phase of travel-demand forecasting, we analyze people’s
decisions regarding mode of travel; auto, bus, train, and so on.
 Mode choice models can also be done on both aggregate (Zonal)
and disaggregate (Household or individual) levels.
 Three broad categories of factors are considered in mode usage:


 The characteristics of the trip maker

 The characteristics of the trip

 The characteristics of the transportation system

In most countries, mode choice modeling is of great political

importance to improve the public transport system and to
make the car drivers switch to public transport.
70
 Modal Choice Cont…
Types of modal split models
 Trip-end modal split models
 Apply modal-split models immediately after trip generation.
 Different characteristics of the person could be preserved
and used to estimate modal split.
 Relate the choice of mode only to features like income,
residential density and car ownership.
 Advantage very accurate in the short run, if public transport
is available and there is little congestion.
 Limitation is that they are insensitive to policy decisions
71
 Modal Choice Cont…
Types of modal split models
 Trip-interchange modal split models
 Distribution model; that is modal split is applied after the
distribution stage.
 Advantage that it is possible to include the characteristics
of the journey and that of the alternative modes available
to undertake them.
 Possible to include policy decisions.
 Beneficial for long term modeling.
72
 Modal Choice Cont…
Logit models
 Is choice model that assumes an individual maximizes utility in
choosing between available alternatives.
 The functional form of the logit model for k number of alternative
modes is:

73
 Modal Choice Cont…
Logit models
 Is choice model that assumes an individual maximizes utility in
choosing between available alternatives.
 The functional form of the logit model for k number of alternative
modes is:

where Pij1 is the proportion of trips travelling from 𝑖 to 𝑗 via mode 1. 𝐶𝑖𝑗1
is the generalized cost of mode 1 and 𝛽 is a calibrated parameter. 74
Modal Choice Cont…

S-shaped logit mode choice curve 75

 Example 9
Let the number of trips from zone to zone is 5000, and
two modes are available which has the characteristics
given in Table 1. Compute the trips made by mode
bus, and the fare that is collected from the mode bus.
If the fare of the bus is reduced to 6, then find the fare
collected. Use =0.7

Table 1: Trip characteristics

car 20 - 18 4 1
bus 30 5 3 9 1
0.03 0.04 0.06 0.1 0.1 76
 Modal Choice Cont…
Utility function
 If two modes, auto (A) and transit (T) with utility
function UA and UT are being considered, the
probability of selecting the auto mode A can be
written as

77
 Example 10
Assume there are 1000 trips being made between zones A and
B, and that there are three mode available to make this trip.
The utility of the individual modes, all people making the trip
is defined as
Uauto=1 – 0.1TT – 0.05 TC
Ubus =-0.1TT – 0.05 TC Uwalk=-0.05 – 0.01 TT
TC=Travel Cost (birr) and TT=Travel Time (min)
Predict how many people would be using each of the modes if:
TTauto=5min, TTbus=15min, TTwalk= 20min, TCauto=2birr,
and TCbus=1birr .

78
Trip Assignment

79
 Trip Assignment
 Traffic analysis in which inter-zonal trips are
assigned to the network.
 Involves computing one or more optimal (usually
shortest) routes between each origin and destination
and distributing travel demand over these routes.
 The sum of all trips along these routes over all OD
pairs results in a traffic load on all links and nodes.

80
 Trip Assignment Cont…
Necessary input for the assignment:
 An OD table of trips between the zones,

usually all trip purposes combined;

 A (computer)representation of the network;

 Characteristics of the network elements (links

and nodes);
 A route choice model.
81
Trip Assignment Cont ….

82
 Trip Assignment Cont…
There are two broad assignment models:
 Minimum path assignment:- assume that the capacity and travel
cost of the links is unaffected by the volume of traffic and
all the traffic will choose to travel on the shortest path.
 The all-or-nothing (AON) assignment

 The congested assignment:- address the fact that the travel time
and cost on a link increases as the volume of traffic on the
link increases.
 User equilibrium assignment (UE), system optimum

assignment (SO)
83
 Trip Assignment Cont…
All-or-Nothing Assignment
 All traffic between an O-D pair is assigned to just one path
(usually the shortest path) connecting the origin and destination.
 Unrealistic in that only one path between every O-D pair is
utilized even if there is another path with the same or nearly the
same travel time.
 Travel time is taken as a fixed input and does not vary
depending on the congestion on a link.
 May be reasonable in sparse and uncongested networks where
there are few alternative routes and they have a large difference
in travel cost.
 Used to identify the desired path.
84
 Example 11
Assign the vehicle trip shown in the following O-D trip to
the network using all or nothing assignment technique to
summarize your result. List all of the network and their
corresponding traffic volume after loading.
a b c d Trip matrix:

f g h A-C = 400
e
A-D = 200
B-C = 300
i j
k B-D = 100`

l m
85
 Quiz 2
Assign Using AON assignment find out the flow on
links a, b, & c.

8 birr
A
T
b T
a A 500

2 birr
c B 900
5 birr
B

86
 Exercise
Assign the vehicle trip shown in the following O-D trip to
the network using all or nothing assignment technique to
summarize your result. List all of the network and their
corresponding traffic volume after loading.
Zone 1 2 3 4 5
8min 3min
1 - 100 100 200 150 1 2 3

2 400 - 200 500 500

3 200 100 - 100 150
4 200 150 300 - 400 6min
4 5
5 200 100 50 350 -

87
 Trip Assignment Cont…
User Equilibrium Assignment
 Based on War drop's first principle

“Under equilibrium conditions traffic arranges itself in congested networks in such a way that
no individual trip maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.”
 In the congested network, all the used routes between an O-D pair have equal
and minimum costs while all unused routes have greater or equal costs.

where is the flow on path k , is the travel cost on path , and u is the
minimum cost.
 Equation labelqueue2 can have two states.
 If = 0, from equation 1 0. This means that all used paths will
have same travel time.
 If 0, then from equation 1 = 0. 88
 Trip Assignment Cont…
User Equilibrium Assignment
 The user equilibrium assignment assumes that:

 The user has perfect knowledge of the path cost.

 Travel time on a given link is a function of the flow on that link

only.
 Travel time functions are positive and increasing.

89
 Example 12
Let us suppose a case where travel time is not a function of
flow as shown in other words it is constant as shown in the
figure below for q12 = 1000vhl

A B

Centre

90
 Exercise
Find the system-optimizing flow pattern for the network shown in the
figure below. Compare this flow pattern to the UE flow pattern and
comment on the difference. The link performance functions are given
below and the total trip between node 1 and 3 is 4 units.

91
 Trip Assignment Cont…
System Optimum Assignment (SO)
 Based on Wardrop's second principle

Under social equilibrium conditions, traffic should be arranged in

congested networks in such a way that the average (or total) travel cost
is minimized.
 Congestion is minimized when drivers are told which routes

to use.
 Is not a behaviorally realistic model

92
 Trip Assignment Cont…
The indicator is often used to measure how close a
solution is to Wardrop’s equilibrium:

Convergence criteria

Where
(Cijr – Cij*) excess cost between i & j relative to the
minimum (Cij*)
93
 Trip Assignment Cont…
Incremental Loading
 Parts of the matrix are assigned in each iteration. E.g.: 4
iterations: 40%, 30%, 20% or 10%, alternatively 25% at
each iteration
 Does not necessarily converge to Wardrop’s equilibrium !!
 Suffers from the limitation that once a flow has been
assigned to a link it is not removed and loaded onto
another one
 In other words, if one of the initial iterations assigns too much

flow on a link for Wardrop’s equilibrium to be met, then the

algorithm will not converge to the correct solution. 94
 Trip Assignment Cont…
Incremental Loading
1. Select initial set of link costs (free flow/warm start)
 set all flows to 0
 partition trip matrix
2. build set of minimum cost trees for all origins
3. load first (next) matrix segment using AON
4. calculate new set of link costs
5. whole matrix assigned?
 if yes, END
 if no, go to (3) 95
 Example 13
Route b
Tt=10+0.025V
VAB =2000 vhl
Tb=15+0.005V A B
Center

Route t

Assign the trips in each route by Incremental

loading.
Use 4 iterations (Assign 25% of trips at each)

96
 Class Exercise Route b

Tt=10+0.025V VAB =2000 vhl

A B
Tb=15+0.005V Center

Route t
Assign the trips in each route,
Use 4 iterations (Assign 40%, 30%, 20% &10%
respectively), Does the solution converge to the
equilibrium solution?

97
 Trip Assignment Cont…
Successive Average
1. Select initial set of link costs (free flow/warm start)
 get set of link costs (most likely free flow)
 set all link volumes to 0,
 set iteration number (n = 0)
2. Set n = n + 1
3. Update the minimum cost trees
4. All-or-nothing assignment, Fan
5. Update the link flows

1. Update link costs given Van

2. Check for convergence; if no convergence then goes to step 2.
98
 Example 14
Route b
Tt=10+0.025V
Tb=15+0.005V VAB =2000 vhl
A B
Center

Route t

Assign the trips in each route by successive

averages.

99
 Trip Assignment Cont…

Direct output of the assignment computation:

 The routes :(consecutive series of adjacent links and
nodes);
 The route characteristics :(travel times, distances, costs);
 Route loads: the number of trips per route;
 Link and node loads: the number of trips per unit time
(flow) on each link and each turn at junctions.
100
 Evaluation and Economic
Appraisal of transport projects

 Appraisal forecasting the effect it will have on policy indicators and

weighing them up to decide whether overall the proposal is beneficial.
 Economic efficiency projects could be found and undertaken which would
make everyone better off, those projects would serve to promote
economic efficiency.
 If the benefits measured in money terms exceed the costs; the most
efficient project is that for which the difference is greatest
 Some other indicators cannot be expressed in money
 The difficulty of finding satisfactory methodologies for valuing
some benefits and costs in money terms
 Decision-makers may wish to look at a broader range of criteria
than economic efficiency.
101
 Impact Assessment
Categories of impacts Method of assessment
Cost Benefit Analysis
Monetized impacts:  Net present value

The significance of impacts is

assessed by combining the value
of the asset and the magnitude
of the impacts. Significance can
Non-monetized impacts:
range from four pluses to four
minuses
++++ ----
102
 Evaluation and Economic Cont…
Accidents
 Damage to property and vehicles,
 Health service, ambulance and police costs, and
 Loss of production due to victims being unable to work
 Difficult is to place a money value on the pain, grief and suffering caused by
death or injury in an accident.
Environmental
 Property demolition,
 Noise nuisance,
 Visual intrusion and air pollution.
 Consumption of scarce and non-renewable resources such as oil.
Benefits
 Reduction of congestion and travel time,
 Provision of accessibility,
 Enhancement of environment
103
 Cost-Benefit Analysis
 Mainly involves financial and social appraisal of the projects.
 Financial Appraisal:- measuring all the effects of the project
on the cash flow of the agent undertaking it.
 Social Appraisal:- measure the benefits and costs whoever
receives them and whatever form they take.
 In order to undertake an appraisal, it is necessary to identify:
• The base case (i.e. what will happen without the project)
• The option (what will happen with it)
104
 Cost-Benefit Analysis Cont…
Financial appraisal
 Cash flow are then 'discounted' back to the present
to find its Net Present Value (NPV) in financial
terms.
 The NPV is simply the difference between the sum
of the discounted costs and the discounted benefits.

105
 Consumers Surplus (Users Benefit)

B = Users benefit for existing traffic V0

User cost A = Consumers surplus (users benefit for the existing facility) for V0
per trip
C = CS for induced traffic
B + C= Total users benefit for the total traffic based
on the improved/alternative travel cost P1

A
P0
B C
P1 Travel Demand Curve

Volume of traffic
V0 V1

106
 Cost-Benefit Analysis Cont…
 Net Present Value = Benefit – Cost
(NPV) = B- C
 Benefit Cost Ratio = Benefit / Cost
(BCR )= B / C
 Net Present Value = Benefit – Cost

 Note: for identical annual benefit bt = b (throughout the analysis

period),
107
 Cost-Benefit Analysis Cont…

 Internal Rate of Return (IROR)

 Make the net present value at the given rate should be
zero.
 Calculate the rate (i) and compare with the given rate. (r)

Determine i, (P/A-i-n) from NPVi=0

If r<i accept if not , don’t accept

108
 Cost-Benefit Analysis Cont…

 Equivalent Uniform Annual Value (EUAV)

 Calculate the total sum of the benefits and the initial
investment of the project which is multiply by (A/P-i-n).
(A/P-i-n)= r(1+r)n
(1+r)n-1

 If The result is (+ve) accept otherwise not.

109
 Example 15
Annual
construction Annual saving Annual travel Annual add.
Alter. opperating
cost in accident trip benefit Maintenance cost
saving

I 185,000.00 5,000.00 3,000.00 500.00 1,500.00

II 220,000.00 5,000.00 6,500.00 500.00 2,500.00
III 310,000.00 7,000.00 6,000.00 2,800.00 3,000.00

Econonic life = 50yrs Rank the given alternatives

Discount rate= 5% by using
All are equal rate in every year  NPV
All costs are in Birr
 B/C

 IROR

 EUAV
110
 Class Exercise
B
 Existing situation
 Length (A-B) = 25Km A
 Travel Time (A-B) = 30min B
 Planned situation
 Length (A-B) = 17Km A
 Travel Time (A-B) = 15min
 Induced traffic A-B: 3,000 Veh/day
 Saving for Existing Traffic (10,000Veh/day): 8Km and 15min
 Assume Value of time = 5birr/hr
 Assume driving cost = 0.05 birr/km
 Analysis Period = 25 years
 Discount rate = 8%
 Cost of building is 95million birr.
Determine the user benefit.
By using (NPV, B/C,EUA and IRR your analysis should this new road be
built or not? 111
QUESTIONS?

112