COVER SHEET

General Inputs
Analyst:
Company Name: Weight Watchers International
Ticker: NYSE:WTW
Source Document: 2013 10K
Date of last FY historicals: 12/28/2013
Date of last edit: 03/24/2013
Share Price: $19.65

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Circuit Breaker
Financial Statement Model
Weight Watchers International

Income Statement
In thousands, except for per share data. Actuals
2011A 2012A 2013A
Revenues $1,832,494.0 $1,839,432.0 $1,724,123.0
Cost of Goods Sold 773,989.0 745,614.0 723,011.0
Gross Profit $1,058,505 $1,093,818 $1,001,112

Operating Expenses 512,177.0 583,013.0 540,355.0

Operating Profit (EBIT) $546,328 $510,805 $460,757

Interest Expense 59,850.0 90,537.0 103,108.0

Other income/(expense), net 3,386.0 1,979.0 599.0
Early Extinguishment of Debt 0.0 1,328.0 21,685.0
Income Before Taxes $483,092 $416,961 $335,365

(Taxes)/Tax Benefits 178,748.0 159,535.0 130,640.0

Net Income $304,344 $257,426 $204,725

Deprectiation and Ammoritization Expense 14,450.0 18,844.0 20,342.0

EBITDA $318,794 $276,270 $225,067

Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding 74,131.0 60,923.0 56,394.0

GAAP Diluted Earnings Per Share $4.1 $4.2 $3.6

Revenue Growth 0.4% -6.3%

COGS Margin 42.2% 40.5% 41.9%
Operating Expense Margin 27.9% 31.7% 31.3%
Tax Rate 0.4 0.4 0.4

Balance Sheet
In thousands, except for per share data Actuals
2011A 2012A 2013A
Cash & Cash Equivalents $70,215.0 $174,557.0
Accounts Recievable 37,363.0 36,248.0
Inventory 46,846.0 40,939.0
Other Current Assets 63,543.0 63,981.0
PP&E 71,768.0 87,052.0
Other Assets 928,872.0 1,006,154.0
Total Assets $1,218,607 $1,408,931

Accounts Payable $49,349.0 $45,496.0

Other Current Liabilities 398,506.0 300,324.0
Long Term Liabilities 2,436,211.0 2,537,733.0
Revolver
Total Liabilities $2,884,066 $2,883,553

Common Stock/Additional Paid in Capital $0.0 $0.0

Convertible Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0
Retained Earnings/Accumulated Deficit 1,603,513.0 1,773,267.0
Other Equity-related -3,268,972.0 -3,247,889.0
Total Equity/Deficit -$1,665,459 -$1,474,622

Balance Check 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow Statement

Actuals
2011A 2012A 2013A

Net Income
Depreciation
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other Current Assets
PP&E
Other Assets
Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Long-term Liabilities
Cash from Operating Activities

Capital Expenditures
Cash from Investing Activities

Dividends
Revolver
Common Stock/Additional Paid In Capital
Convertible Preffered Stock
Other Equity-related
Cash From Financing Activities

Net Change in Cash During Period

Supporting Schedules
Actuals
2011A 2012A 2013A
Accounts Recievable Roll-forward
Accounts Recieveable, BOP Balance
+/- Additions
Accounts Recievable, EOP Balance $37,363.0 $36,248.0

AR as a % of Sales 2.0% 2.1%

Inventory Roll-forward
Inventory, BOP Balance
+/- Additions
Inventory EOP Balance $46,846.0 $40,939.0

Inventory as a % of COGS 6.3% 5.7%

Accounts Payable Roll-forward

Accounts Payable, BOP Balance
+/- Additions
Accounts Payable EOP Balance $49,349.0 $45,496.0

AP as a % of COGS 6.6% 6.3%

PP&E Roll-forward
PP&E, BOP Balance
+ Capital Expenditures
-Depreciation
PP&E EOP Balance $71,768.0 $87,052.0

Capital Expenditures as a % of Revenue

Depreciation/Capital Expenditures Ratio

Retained Earnings Roll-forward

Retained Earnings BOP Balance
+ Net Income
-Dividends
Retained Earnings EOP Balance $1,603,513.0 $1,773,267.0

Dividend Payout Ratio

 Projected
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
$1,365,505 $1,365,505 $1,365,505 $1,406,471 $1,448,665
657,354.3 613,658.1 586,348.0 603,938.5 622,056.6
$708,151 $751,847 $779,157 $802,532 $826,608

382,341.5 300,411.2 300,411.2 309,423.5 318,706.2

$325,810 $451,436 $478,746 $493,109 $507,902

599.0 599.0 599.0 599.0 599.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
$325,211 $450,837 $478,147 $492,510 $507,303

125,206.1 173,572.3 184,086.7 189,616.2 195,311.6

$200,005 $277,265 $294,061 $302,893 $311,991

20,231.6 20,231.6 20,231.6 20,838.5 21,463.7

$220,236 $297,496 $314,292 $323,732 $333,455

56,394.0 56,394.0 56,394.0 56,394.0 56,394.0

$3.5 $4.9 $5.2 $5.4 $5.5

-20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0%

48.1% 44.9% 42.9% 42.9% 42.9%
28.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%

Projected
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
$298,532.5 $535,532.1 $786,795.1 $1,046,229.4 $1,306,306.7
28,266.0 28,266.0 28,266.0 29,113.9 29,987.4
39,244.1 36,635.4 35,005.0 36,055.1 29,987.4
63,981.0 63,981.0 63,981.0 63,981.0 63,981.0
113,789.7 140,527.5 167,265.2 194,805.1 223,171.1
1,006,154.0 1,006,154.0 1,006,154.0 1,006,154.0 1,006,154.0
$1,549,967 $1,811,096 $2,087,466 $2,376,339 $2,659,588

42,465.1 39,642.3 37,878.1 39,014.4 40,184.9

 300,324.0 300,324.0 300,324.0 300,324.0 300,324.0
2,537,733.0 2,537,733.0 2,537,733.0 2,537,733.0 2,537,733.0

$2,880,522 $2,877,699 $2,875,935 $2,877,071 $2,878,242

$0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1,944,071.9 2,180,857.4 2,431,986.6 2,690,659.1 2,957,101.2
-3,247,889.0 -3,247,889.0 -3,247,889.0 -3,247,889.0 -3,247,889.0
-$1,303,817 -$1,067,032 -$815,902 -$557,230 -$290,788

-26,737.7 428.2 27,433.6 56,497.0 72,133.5

Projected
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P

$200,004.5 $277,264.8 $294,060.5 $302,893.4 $311,991.2

20,231.6 20,231.6 20,231.6 20,838.5 21,463.7
7,982.0 0.0 0.0 -848.0 -873.4
1,694.9 2,608.7 1,630.4 -1,050.1 6,067.8
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-26,737.7 -26,737.7 -26,737.7 -27,539.9 -28,366.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
-3,030.9 2,822.8 1,764.2 -1,136.3 -1,170.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
$200,144 $324,448 $341,164 $352,034 $355,456

46,969.3 46,969.3 46,969.3 48,378.4 49,829.7

-$46,969 -$46,969 -$46,969 -$48,378 -$49,830

29,199.7 40,479.3 42,931.4 44,220.9 45,549.2

$0.0 0 0 0 0
0.0 0 0 0 0
0.0 0 0 0 0
-$29,200 -$40,479 -$42,931 -$44,221 -$45,549

$123,975 $237,000 $251,263 $259,434 $260,077

Projected
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
 $36,248.0 $28,266.0 $28,266.0 $28,266.0 $29,113.9
-7,982.0 0.0 0.0 848.0 873.4
$28,266.0 $28,266.0 $28,266.0 $29,113.9 $29,987.4

2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

$40,939.0 $39,244.1 $36,635.4 $35,005.0 $36,055.1

-1,694.9 -2,608.7 -1,630.4 1,050.1 1,081.7
$39,244.1 $36,635.4 $35,005.0 $36,055.1 $37,136.8

6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

$45,496.0 $42,465.1 $39,642.3 $37,878.1 $39,014.4

-3,030.9 -2,822.8 -1,764.2 1,136.3 1,170.4
$42,465.1 $39,642.3 $37,878.1 $39,014.4 $40,184.9

6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

$87,052.0 $113,789.7 $140,527.5 $167,265.2 $194,805.1

46,969.3 46,969.3 46,969.3 48,378.4 49,829.7
20,231.6 20,231.6 20,231.6 20,838.5 21,463.7
$113,789.7 $140,527.5 $167,265.2 $194,805.1 $223,171.1

3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1%

$1,773,267.0 $1,944,071.9 $2,180,857.4 $2,431,986.6 $2,690,659.1

200,004.5 277,264.8 294,060.5 302,893.4 311,991.2
29,199.7 40,479.3 42,931.4 44,220.9 45,549.2
$1,944,071.9 $2,180,857.4 $2,431,986.6 $2,690,659.1 $2,957,101.2

14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6%

Assumptions Sheet
Weight Watchers International

Model Assumptions

Select a scenario:

Current Case:
Projected
Operating Assumptions 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Revenue Growth
COGS Margin
Operating Expenses Margin
Tax Rate

Working Capital Assumptions

AR as a % of Sales
Inventory as a % of COGS
AP as a % of COGS

Fixed Asset Assumptions

Capital Expenditures as a % of Revenue
Depreciation/Capital Expenditures Ratio

Capital Structure Assumptions

Dividend Payout Ratio
Minimum Cash Desired
Best Case Base Case
Projected Projected
2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Comments: 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P
-18.8% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% -20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
45.9% 42.9% 40.9% 40.9% 40.9% 48.1% 44.9% 42.9% 42.9%
26.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 28.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0%
38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%

2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1%

14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 17.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6%

 Worst Case
Projected
2018P Comments: 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P Comments:
3.0% -23.8% -3.0% -3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
42.9% 50.9% 47.9% 45.9% 45.9% 45.9%
22.0% 31.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5%

2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1% 43.1%

14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6%