Chapter Three

Frequency
Analysis
What do we mean
by the term
Frequency Analysis?
 Frequency Analysis
@ A term used to describe the probability of occurrence of a
particular hydrologic event (e.g. rainfall, flood, drought,
etc.) or
@ Or “it is the number of times that a given magnitude flood
may occur in a given period.”
@ Knowledge of the magnitude probable frequency of
recurrence of floods is necessary for:
1. Economical planning and safe design of :
< Bridge
< Dams
< Levees
< Culverts
< Sewage disposal plants and other structures
located along rivers and streams
 Cont…
2. The effective management of:
< Flood plains
<Flood defense schemes
3. To predict the possible flood magnitude over a
certain period of time.
4. To estimate the frequency with which floods of
a certain magnitude may occur
Knowledge of the flood frequency is necessary to
flood insurance and flood zoning
 Cont…
§ It usually requires recorded hydrological data.
§ Hydrological data are recorded either as a continuous
record (e.g. water level or stage, rainfall, etc.) or
§ In discrete series form (e.g. mean
daily/monthly/annual flows or rainfall, annual
series, partial series, etc.)
§ For planning and designing of water resources
development projects, the important parameters are
river discharges and related questions on the
frequency & duration of normal flows.
 Flood Frequency Analysis
§ Three kinds of flood-frequency curves may be
prepared from gaging- station records. These are:
a. Discharge curves
b. Stage curves
c. Volume curves
Discharge Curves
§ Derived from momentary peak rates of flow.
Derived from gaging-station records, are the basis
for establishing regional relation.
 Stage Curves
§ Relating momentary peak stages to time. It is
required for purposes of prediction, thought must
be given to the nature of the stage-discharge
relation.
§ If the stage-discharge relation has remained
virtually stable throughout the period of record,
frequencies can either be computed directly from
stages, or can be computed from discharges first,
then transformed to stages by means of the
stage-discharge relation.
 Volume Curves

§ Relating time to the maximum 1-day, 2-day, 5-

day, 10-day, or other-day, discharge.
§ There are certain problems in which flood
volumes are of as great concern as flood peaks.
§ These problems involve reservoir design, where
it is desired to provide a measure of flood-control
storage.
§ The frequency of flood volume can be
determined by the same method as the frequency
flood peaks.
 Cont…
§ Normal flow is the record of flows over a length of time
(duration) that a certain river flow is expected to be
exceeded. And presents in the following formats.
1 . Stream flow Hydrograph (annual and storm)
• Hydrograph is a plot of stream flow vs. time over a year showing the
long term balance of precipitation, evaporation, and stream flow in a
watershed.
 Cont….
2. Mass Curve:
• Cumulative discharge vs time
• Gives information about:
• Duration
• Magnitude
• Onset
• Cessation
 Cont…
3. By Excel format
Simply in excel in discharge and time correspondence
4. Flow duration curve
§ Taking n-years of flow records from a river gauging
stations, there are 365(6) n daily mean discharges.
§ The discharge is compiled, starting with the highest
values.
§ If N number of data points are used for analysis, the
plotting position of any discharge (or class value) Q is:
 Cont…
Pp = m / (N+1)
Where, m = is the order number of the discharge (or
class value)
Pp = percentage probability of the flow magnitude
being equaled or exceeded
§ The FDC only applies for the period for which it was
derived.
§ If this is a long period, say more than 10 to 20 years,
the FDC may be regarded as a probability curve or
flow frequency curve.
 Cont….
Discharge Descending Ra %Exceeded or Equaled
(m3/s) Order nk (m / (N+1))
106.70 1200 1 8.33%
107.10 964.7 2 16.67%
148.20 497 3 25.00%
497.00 338.6 4 33.33%
1200.00 177.6 5 41.67%
964.70 148.2 6 50.00%
338.60 142.7 7 58.33%
177.60 141 8 66.67%
141.00 141 9 75.00%
141.00 126.6 10 83.33%
142.70 107.1 11 91.67%

126.60 106.7 12 100.00%

Flow Duration Curve
 Cont…..
§ The shape of the flow-duration curve gives a good
indication of a catchment’s characteristics response
to its average rainfall history.

§ An initially steeply sloped curve results from a

very variable discharge, usually from small
catchments with little storage.

§ Flow duration curves that have very flat slope

indicate little variation in flow regime, the resultant
of the damping effects of large storages.
 Flood Probability
Selection of Data
§ To provide reliable answers for probability analysis ,
the data series should be relevant, adequate, and
accurate.
§ Relevance implies that the data must deal with the
problem.
§ Most flood studies are concerned with peak flows, and
the data series will consist of selected observed peaks.
§ However, if the problem is duration of flooding, e.g.,
§ For what periods of time a highway adjacent to a
stream is likely to be flooded
§ The data series should represent duration of flows in
excess of some critical value.
 Cont…
§ If the problem is one of interior drainage of a leveed
area, the data required may consist of those flood
volumes occurring when the main river is too high to
permit gravity drainage.
Adequacy refers primarily to length of record, but
scarcity of data collecting stations is often a problem.
§ If the sample is too small, the probabilities derived
cannot be expected to be reliable.
§ Available stream flow records are too short to provide
an answer to the question:
§ How long must a record be to define flood
probabilities within acceptable tolerances?
 Cont….
Accuracy: refers primarily to the problem of
homogeneity.
§ If the reported flows are unreliable, they are not a
satisfactory basis for frequency analysis.
§ Even though reported flows are accurate, they may be
unsuitable for probability analysis if changes in the
catchment have caused a change in the hydrologic
characteristics, i.e., if the record is not internally
homogenous.
§ Dams, levees, diversions, urbanization, and other land
use changes may introduce inconsistencies.
§ Such records should be adjusted before use to current
conditions or to natural conditions.
 Cont…..
• There are two methods of treating flood data for
studying the frequency of floods are in common use.
The first is the annual-flood array and the second is the
partial-duration series.
§ Annual series: constitutes of data series of single
maximum daily/monthly/annually discharge in each
year of record so that the number of data values equals
the record length in years.
§ For statistical purposes, it is necessary to ensure that the
selected peak discharges are independent of one another.
§ This data series is necessary if the analysis is concerned
with probability less than 0.5.
 Cont…
•
 Cont…
§ Partial duration series: constitutes of data series that
exceed some arbitrary level.
§ All the peaks above a selected level of discharge (a
threshold) are included in the series and hence the
series is often called the Peaks Over Threshold
(POT) series.
§ There are generally more data values for analysis in
this series than in the annual series, but there is more
chance of the peaks being related and the assumption
of true independence is less valid.
 Outliers
§ Outliers, are measured values that occur, but appear
to be from a longer sample or different population.
§ May be found at either or both ends of a frequency
distribution.
§ This is reflected when one or more data points do
not follow the trend of the remaining data.
§ If the station skew is greater than 0.4, tests are
applied for high outliers first, and, if less than -0.4,
low outliers are considered first.
 Cont…
§ If the station skew is between ± 0.4, both high and low
outliers are tested before any data are eliminated.
§ The detection of high and low outliers is obtained with
the following equations, respectively:
The equation is given by: YH = +KNSY and
YL= - KNSY
Where:
• YH, YL = log of the high or low outlier limit, resp.
• = mean of the log of the sample flows
• Sy = standard deviation of the sample
• KN = critical deviate (from Table 4.21).
 Cont…
§ If the sample is found to contain high outliers, the
peak flows should be checked against other historical
data sources and data from nearby stations.
§ This check enables categorization of the flow
observation as a potential anomaly or error in the
sample.
§ High outliers be adjusted for historical information
or retained in the sample as a systematic peak.
§ The high outlier should not be discarded unless the
peak flow is shown to be seriously in error.
 Cont…
§ If a high outlier is adjusted based on historical data,
the mean and standard deviation of the log distribution
should be recomputed for the adjusted data before
testing for low outliers.
§ To test for low outliers, the low outlier threshold YL is
computed.
§ The corresponding discharge XL = 10YL is then
computed.
§ If any discharges in the flood series are less than XL,
then they are considered to be low outliers and should
be deleted from the sample.
Table 1.
Outlier
Test
Deviates
(KN) at 10
Percent
Significanc
e Level
(from
USGS
Bulletin
17B, 1982)
 Cont…
§ Flood frequency can be evaluated by two methods
i. Statistical approach estimates flood quantiles by
applying probability models
ii. The design storm method uses the rainfall- runoff
model
In statistical method:
1. Probability plotting
2. Weibull formula
3. Hazen method
4. Califomia method
5. Gumbel’s method
 Plotting Positions
§ Probability analysis seeks to define the flood flow
with probability of p being equaled or exceed in any
year.
§ Return period Tr is often used in lieu of probability to
describe a design flood. Return period and probability
are reciprocals, i.e, p = 1/Tr.
§ To plot a series of peak flows as a cumulative
frequency curves it is necessary to decide on a
probability or return period to associate with each
peak.
§ The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n
successive years can be obtained from:
n-r n!
Pm = C r P q
n r
= P r q n-r Where q = 1 - P.
( n - r )! r!
 Cont…
Plotting-position formulae
Method P
California m/N
Hazen (m - 0.5) / N
Weibull m / (N+1)
Chegodayev (m - 0.3) / (N+0.4)
Gringorten (m - 3/8) / (N + 1/4)

The last column shows the return period T of various

flood magnitude, Q. A plot of Q Vs T yields the
probability distribution.
A logarithmic scale for T is often advantageous.
 Cont…
§ For small return periods (i.e., interpolations) a simple
best-fitting curve through plotted points can be used as
the probability distribution.
§ For larger extrapolations of T, theoretical probability
distributions (e.g. Gumbel extreme-value, Log-Pearson
Type III, and log normal distributions) have to be used.
§ In frequency analysis of floods the usual problem is to
predict extreme flood events.
§ To solve this specific extreme-value distributions are
assumed and the required statistical parameters
calculated from the available data.
§ Then flood magnitudes for a specific return period is
estimated.
 Theoretical Distributions of Floods
§ Numerous distributions have been suggested on the
basis of their ability to “fit” the plotted data from
streams. The general equation of hydrologic frequency
analysis: X = X + K s
T
Where
XT = value of the variate X of a random hydrologic series
with a return period T,
X= mean of the variate,
σ = standard deviation of the variate,
K = frequency factor which depends upon the return
period T, and the assumed frequency distribution.
Extreme-Value Type I Distribution (Gumbel’s Method)

§ This extreme value distribution was introduced by

Gumbel (1941) and is commonly known as Gumbel's
distribution.
§ It is one of the most widely used probability-
distribution functions for extreme values in hydrologic
and meteorological studies for prediction of :
§ Flood peaks,
§ Maximum rainfalls, and
§ Maximum wind speed, etc.
§ Only applicable to annual extremes.
 Cont…
§ The data are ranked in descending? order and it makes
use of the probability of non-exceedence q =1-P (the
probability that the annual maximum flow is less than a
certain magnitude).
§ The return period T is given by T = 1 / P = 1 / (1-q).
§ Gumbel makes a reduced variate as a function of q,
which allows the plotting of the distribution as a linear
function between y and X.
§ Gumbel also defined a flood as the largest of the 365
daily flows and the annual series of flood flows
constitute a series of largest values of flow.
 Cont...
§ According to his theory of extreme events, the
probability of occurrence of an event equal to or
larger than a value x0 is P ( X ³ x ) = 1 - e - e - y
0

In which y is a dimensionless variable given by

y = α(X-a)
a = x – 0.45005σx
α = 1.2825/σx
Thus y = 1 . 2825 ( X - x ) + 0 . 577
s x

Where X = mean and

σx = standard deviation of the variate X
 Cont…
§ In practice the value of X for a given P is transposed as
y = -ln(-ln(q)) = -ln(-ln(1-p))
§ Meaning that the probability of non- exceedence
= = =
-y
-e
equals: P(X x 0 ) q e
§ The return period T = 1/p and
yT = value of y, commonly called reduced variate for
a given T
yT = -[ln(ln(T/T-1))]
yT = -[0.834 + 2.303log(log(T/T-1))]
Now rearranging the equation the value of the variate X
with a return period T is
( yT - 0.577)
XT = X + Kσx Where k =
1.2825
 Gumbel's Equation for Practical Use
§ The variate X with the return period T is given as
XT = X + Kσn-1 and s = å ( X - X )2

N -1
n -1

Where σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample

K = frequency factor expressed as k = ( y T - y n )
Sn
yT = reduced variate, a function of T and is given by
T
y T = - [ln(ln( ))]
T -1
T
y T = - [ 0 . 834 + 2 . 303 log(log( ))]
T -1
• yn reduced mean, a function of sample size N and is given in table
for N→ ∞, Yn → 0.577
• Sn = reduced standard deviation, a function of sample size N and
is given in table for N → ∞, sn →1.2825.
 Cont…

§ Procedure to estimate the flood magnitude

corresponding to a given return period based on
annual flood series.
i. Assemble the discharge data and note the sample
size N. Here the annual flood value is the variate
X. Find X and σn-1 for the given data.
ii. Determine yn and Sn appropriate to given N
iii. Find yT for a given T
iv. Find K
v. Determine the required XT
 Cont…
§ To verify whether the given data follow the assumed
Gumbel's distribution, the following procedure may be
adopted.
i. The value of XT for some return periods T< N are
calculated by using Gumbel's formula and plotted as
XT Vs T on a convenient paper such as a semi-log, log-
log or Gumbel probability paper.
ii. The use of Gumbel probability paper results in a
straight line for XT Vs T plot.
iii. Gumbel's distribution has the property which gives T =
2.33 years for the average of the annual series when N
is very large.
 Cont…
§ Thus the value of a flood with T = 2.33 years is called
the mean annual flood.
§ For the given data, values of return periods (plotting
positions) for various recorded values, X of the
variate are obtained by the relation T = (N+1)/m and
plotted on the graph described above. A good fit of
observed data with the theoretical variation line
indicates the applicability of Gumbel's distribution to
the given data series.
§ By extrapolation of the straight-line XT Vs T, values
of XT > N can be determined easily.
 Table 3.4: Reduced mean yn in Gumbel's extreme value distribution,
N = sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220

20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353

30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430

40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481

50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518

60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545

70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567

80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585

90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100
0.5600
Table 3.5: Reduced standard deviation Sn in Gumbel's extreme value
distribution, N = sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565

20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086

30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388

40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590

50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734

60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844

70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930

80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001

90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060

100 1.2065
 Confidence Limits for the fitted data
§ Since the value of the variate for a given return period, xT
determined by Gumbel's method can have errors due to the limited
sample data used;
§ An estimate of the confidence limits of the estimate is desirable.
The confidence interval indicates the limits about the calculated
value between which the true value can be said to lie with a
specific probability based on sampling errors only.
§ For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval of the
variate XT is bound by value x1 and x2 given by x1/2 = xT ± f (c)Se

Where f(c) = function of the confidence probability c determined by

using the table of normal variate as
 Cont…

K= frequency factor
σn-1 = standard deviation of the sample
N = sample size
It is seen that for a given sample and T, 80%
confidence limits are twice as large as the 50% limits
and 95% limits are thrice as large as 50% limits.
 Log-Pearson Type III Distribution
§ This distribution is widely used in USA. In this
distribution the variate is first transformed into
logarithmic form (base 10) and the transformed data is
then analyzed.
§ If X is the variate of a random hydrologic series, then
the series of Z variates where Z=logx are first obtained.
§ For this z series, for any recurrence interval T
ZT = + +Kz σz
Where Kz = a frequency factor which is a function of
recurrence interval T and the coefficient of skew Cs
Cont…
 Cont…
§ The variations of Kz = f(Cs, T) is given in Table.
After finding ZT the corresponding value of XT is
obtained by XT = antilog(ZT). Sometimes, the
coefficient of skew Cs, is adjusted to account for
the size of the sample by using the following
relation proposed by Hazen (1930)

Where Cˆs = adjusted coefficient of skew.

§ When the skew is zero, i.e. Cs = 0, the Log-Pearson
Type III distribution reduces to Log-normal
distribution.
§ The Log-normal distribution plots as a straight line
on logarithmic probability paper.
Table 3.6 Kz=F(Cs,T) for use in Log-Pearson Type III
Distribution
 Cont...
§ The flood-frequency analysis described above is a
direct means of estimating the desired flood based
upon the available flood-flow data of the catchment.
§ The results of the frequency analysis depend upon the
length of data.
§ The minimum number of years of record required to
obtain satisfactory estimates depends upon the
variability of data and hence on the physical and
climatological characteristics of the basin.
§ Generally a minimum of 30 years of data is
considered as essential.
 Cont…
§ Smaller lengths of records are also used when it is
unavoidable.
§ However, frequency analysis should not be adopted if
the length of records is less than 10 years.
§ Flood-frequency studies are most reliable in climates
that are uniform from year to year.
§ In such cases a relatively short record gives a reliable
picture of the frequency distribution.
§ With increasing lengths of flood records, it affords a
viable alternative method of flood-flow estimation in
most cases.
 Cont…
§ A final remark of caution should be made regarding
to frequency analysis.
§ None of the frequency distribution functions have a
real physical background.
§ The only information having physical meaning are
the measurements themselves.
§ Extrapolation beyond the period of observation is
dangerous. It requires a good engineer to judge the
value of extrapolated events of high return periods.
§ A good impression of the relativity of frequency
analysis can be acquired through the comparison of
result obtained from different statistical methods.
Generally they differ considerably.
 Example 1
Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the
period 1951 to 1977 is given below. Verify whether the Gumbel
extreme-value distribution fit the recorded values. Estimate the
flood discharge with return period of (i) 100 years and (ii) 150
years by graphical extrapolation.

Solutions: The flood discharge values are arranged in

descending order and the plotting position return period TP for
each discharge is obtained as

Where m = order number.

The discharge magnitude Q can be plotted against the
corresponding TP on a Gumbel extreme probability paper.
Cont…
 Cont….
o The statistics x and σn-1 for the series are next calculated and are
shown in table below.
 Cont…
o Using these the discharge xT for some chosen return
interval is calculated by using Gumbel's formulae. From
Tables 3.4 and 3.5, for N = 27, yn = 0.5332 and Sn =
1.1004.
o Choosing T = 10 years, yT = -[ln(ln(10/9))] = 2.25037 and
K = (2.25307-0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56 and xT = 4263 +
(1.56*1432.6) = 6499m3/s.
o Similarly, values of xT are calculated for two more T values
as shown below.
 Cont…
§ When these values are plotted on Gumbel probability
paper, it is seen that these points lie on a straight line
according to the property of the Gumbel's extreme
probability paper. Then by extrapolation of the
theoretical XT Vs T relationship, from this plot,
§ at T = 100 years, xT = 9600m3/s and at T = 150 years,
XT = 10700m3/s. T
y T = - [ln(ln( ))]
§ [By using XT = X + Kσn-1 and T -1
§ X100 = 9558m3/s and X150 = 10088m3/s.]
 Example 2:
Data covering a period of 92 years for a certain river yielded the
mean and standard deviation of the annual flood series as 6437 and
2951 m3/s respectively. Using Gumbel's method, estimate the
flood discharge with a return period of 500 years. What are the
(a) 95% and
(b) 80% confidence limits for this estimate?
Solution: From Table 3.4 and 3.5 for N = 92 years,
yn = 0.5589, and Sn = 1.2020.
Then y500 = -[ln((ln(500/499))] = 6.21361
K500 = (6.21361 - 0.5589)/1.2020 = 4.7044,
Hence, xT500 = 6437 + 4.7044*2951 = 20320m3/s.
b = 1 + 1.3( 4.7044 ) + 1.1( 4.7044 ) 2 = 5.61
2951
s e = probable error = 5.61 * = 1726
92
 Cont…
§ For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and by
x1/2 =20320 ± (1.96*1726), which results in X1 = 23703m3/s and
X2 = 16937m3/s.
o Thus the estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has a 95%
probability of lying between 23700 and 16940m3/s.
(b) For 80% confidence probability, f(c) = 1.282 and by
X1/2 = 20320XT ± (1.282*1726), which results in X1 = 22533m3/s
and X2 =18107m3/s.
Thus the estimated discharge 20320 m3/s has an 80% probability of
lying between 22533 and 18107m3/s.
§ For the given data of, the values of XT for different values of T
are calculated and can be shown plotted on a Gumbel probability
paper.
 Cont…

Figure 3.2: Confidence bands for Gumbel’s distribution: Example 3.2

 Cont….
Example 3: For the annual flood series data given in Example
1, estimate the flood discharge for a return period of
(a) 100 years
(b) 200 years and
(c) 1000 years by using Log-Pearson Type III distribution.
Solution: The variate z = log x is first calculated for all the
discharges in table below. Then the statistics z , σz and Cs are
calculated from table 3.6 to obtain the flood discharge for a
given T is calculated as below. Here, values of Kz for given T
and Cs = 0.043 are read from Table 3.6.
s z = 0 . 1427
z = 3 . 6071
27 * 0 . 003
Cs = 3
= 0 . 043
( 26 )( 25 )( 0 . 1427 )
Cont…
Cont….
 Precipitation Probability
§ Annual maximum hourly or daily amounts ordinarily
conform to
o Gumbel Type I,
o Log-Pearson or
o Log-Normal distribution.
§ In humid areas, where the mean is high, monthly,
seasonal, or annual totals will approximate a normal
distribution.
§ In drier areas a skew distribution such as the Log-
Pearson, Log-Normal may give a better fit.
 Low Flow Analysis
§ The objective of low flow frequency analysis is to estimate
quantiles of annual d-day-average minimum flows.
§ These estimates are usually required for reaches without
long-term stream flow records. These estimates are first
developed by analyzing low flows at gauging stations.
§ Flow-duration curve; is an important tool for low-flow
analysis.
§ Most of the time, the flow exceeded 95% of the time, q95,
is a useful index of water availability that is often used for
design purposes.
§ For purposes of statistical analysis, low flows are defined
as annual minimum flows averaged over consecutive-day
periods of varying length.
 Cont…
§ The most commonly used averaging period is d = 7days, but
analyses are often carried out for d = 1,3, 15, 30, 60, 90 and
180 days as well.
§ Low-flow quantile values are cited as "dQp,"
Where: p is annual non-exceedence probability (in percent)
for the flow averaged over d-days.

§ The 7-day average flow that has an annual non-exceedence

probability of 0.10 (a recurrence interval of 10 yr), called
"7Q10," is commonly used as a low-flow design value. The
“7Q10” value is interpreted as follows:
§ In any year there is a 10% probability that the lowest 7-
consecutive-day average flow will be less than the 7Q10
value.
 Low flow analysis at gauging stations:
For gauged reach, low flow analysis involves development
of a time series of annual d- day low flows, where d is the
averaging period.
§ The analysis begins with a time series of average daily
flows for each year.
§ Then the overlapping d-day averages are computed for
the d values of interest.
§ For each value of d, this creates 365-(d-1) values of
consecutive d-day averages for each year.
§ The smallest of these values is then selected to produce
annual time series of minimum d-day flows.
§ It is this time series that is then subjected to frequency
analysis to estimate the quantiles of the annual d-day
flows.
 Low flow analysis at un-gauged stations:
Estimates of low flow quantiles are usually required for
stream reaches where there are no long-term gauging
station records.
There are two basic approaches to develop such
estimates:
1. Relate dQp values to drainage-basin characteristics
via regression analysis.
2. During the low flow season, make a number of spot
measurements of discharge at the un-gauged stream
reach where the dQp estimate is needed. Then relate
those flows to concurrent flows at a nearby gauging
station using.
 Cont…
qu = a + bqg
Where: qu = flow at the un-gauged site,
qg = concurrent flow at the gauged site, and
a and b are estimated via regression analysis.
Then estimate the dQp at the un-gauged site, dQpu, as:
dQpu = a + b. dQpg
Where: dQpg is the dQp value established by frequency
analysis at the gauged site.
To minimize errors when using this procedure, each pair of
flows used to establish equation should be from a separate
hydrograph recession, r2 value for the relation of equation
should be at least 0.70 and the two basins should be similar in
size, geology, topography, and climate.
 Droughts
§ Droughts are extended severe dry periods.
§ To qualify as a drought, a dry period must have
duration of at least a few months and be a significant
departure from normal.
§ Drought must be expected as part of the natural
climate, even in the absence of any long term climate
change.
§ However, “permanent” droughts due to natural climate
shifts do occur, and appear to have been responsible for
large scale migrations and declines of civilizations
through human history.
 Drought type
Meteorological drought: a deficit in precipitation that is
unusually extreme and prolonged relative to the usual climatic
conditions. Accompanied by:
§ Unusually high temperatures,
§ High winds, low humidity, and
§ High solar radiation that result in increased
evapotranspiration.
Agricultural drought: produce extended periods of unusually
low soil moisture, which affect: Agriculture
Natural plant growth and
The moisture of forest floor.
Hydrological drought: precipitation deficit continues for
extended periods, stream discharge, lake, wetland, and reservoir
levels, and water-table decline to unusually low levels.
 Cont…

Sequence of drought impacts

 Drought analysis
§ The objective of drought analysis is to characterize the
magnitude, duration, and severity of meteorological,
agricultural, or hydrological drought in a region of
interest.
§ The analysis process can be structured in terms of five
questions:
1. What type of drought of interest?
2. What averaging period will be used?
3. How will “drought” be quantitatively defined?
4.What are the magnitude-frequency relations of drought
characteristics?
5. How are regional aspects of drought addressed?
 Drought definition
§ A time series of a selected quantity, X (e.g.,
precipitation, stream flow, ground water level),
averaged over an appropriate dt.
§ The quantitative definition of drought is determined
by the truncation level, X0, selected by the analyst:
Values of X < X0 are defined as droughts.
Typical values for X0 might be:
X0 = X (mean of X)
X0 = X50 (median of X) or
X0 = X – σn-1 (mean minus standard deviation of X)
 Cont…
§ Dracup et al. (1980) suggested choosing X0 = X because
it standardizes the analysis and gives more significance
to extreme events, which are usually of most interest.
§ Once X0 is determined, each period for which X < X0
constitutes a “drought” and each “drought” is
characterized by the following measures:
§ Duration, D = length of period for which X < X0;
§ Severity, S = cumulative deviation from X0;
§ Intensity (or magnitude), I = S/D.

If X is stream flow [L3T-1], then the dimensions of S are

[L3T-1]x[T]=[L3] and the dimensions of I are [L3T-1]
 Averaging period
§ Drought analysis requires selection of an averaging
period (dt). Since drought by definition have significant
duration, one would usually select dt = 1 month, 3
months, or 1yr, with the choice depending on the
available data and the purposes of the analysis. For a
given record length the selection of dt involves a trade-
off in uncertainty of the analysis:
 Example
Computation of d-consecutive Day averages for low flow
analysis. Values in bold are minimum for the period shown
 Magnitude - Frequency Relations
§ Once the severities, durations, and intensities of “drought” have
been determined for a given time series, the magnitude-frequency
characteristics of each of those quantities can be analyzed.

Figure 3.4: Quantitative definition of droughts. X is a drought

measure, X0 is the truncation level. D1, D2, D3 are durations of
droughts 1, 2 and 3. The areas S1, S2, S3 are severities of droughts 1,
2 and 3.
 Risk, Reliability and Safety factor
§ The designer of a hydraulic structure always faces a
nagging doubt about the risk of failure of structure.
§ This is because the estimation of the hydrologic design
values (such as the design flood discharge and the river
stage during the design flood) involve a natural or
inbuilt uncertainty and as such a hydrological risk of
failure.
§ As an example, consider a weir with an expected life of
50 years and designed for a flood magnitude of return
period T=100 years.
 Cont…

§ This weir may fail if a flood magnitude greater than

the design flood occurs within the life period (50
years) of the weir.
§ The probability of occurrence of an event (X ≥ XT) at
least once over a period of n successive years is
called the risk, R .
§ Thus the risk is given by R = 1 - (probability of non-
occurrence of the event X ≥ XT in n years.
 Cont…..

The return period for which a structure should be

designed depends upon the acceptable level of risk.
In practice, the acceptable risk is governed by
economic and policy considerations.
 Safety Factor:
In addition to the hydrologic uncertainty, a water resource
development project will have many other uncertainties.
These may arise out of: structural,
§ constructional,
§ operational and
§ environmental causes
As well as from non-technological considerations such as
§ Economic,
§ Sociological and
§ Political causes.
As such, any water resource development project will have
a safety factor for a given hydrological parameter M as
defined below.
 Cont….
Safety factor (for the parameter M) = (SF) m =

The parameter M includes such items as

§ Flood discharge magnitude,
§ Maximum river stage,
§ Reservoir capacity and
§ Free board.
The difference (Cam - Chm) is known as Safety Margin.
 Example 3.5:
A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is designed for a
flood magnitude of return period 100 years. (a) What is the risk
of this hydrological design? (b) If 10% risk is acceptable, what
return period will have to be adopted?
Solution:
(a) The risk R for n = 25 years and T = 100 years is:

Hence, the inbuilt risk in this design is 22.2%.

Say 240 years. Hence to get 10% acceptable risk, the bridge will
have to be designed for a flood of return period T = 240 years.
 Cont….

Exercise: Annual flood data of a certain river

covering the period 1948 to 1979 yielded for the
annual flood discharges a mean of 29,600m3/s and a
standard deviation of 14,860m3/s. For a proposed
bridge on this river near the gauging site it is
decided to have an acceptable risk of 10% in its
expected life of 50 years.
 Cont…
(a) Estimate the flood discharge by Gumbel's method for
use in the design of this structure.
(b) If the actual flood value adopted in the design is
125,000m3/s, what are the safety factor and safety
margin relating to maximum flood discharge?
Answers:
(a) 105,000m3/s and
(b) (SF) flood = 1.19,
(c) Safety Margin for flood magnitude = 20,000m3/s