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Calculating Slack Time and Identifying The Critical Path

The document discusses calculating slack time and identifying critical paths in project management. It explains that slack time is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project completion date. Activities with zero slack time are on the critical path. The critical path is the longest continuous chain of activities that determines the project duration. The document then discusses incorporating variability in activity times using the PERT method, which uses three time estimates - optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic - to calculate expected activity times and project variance. This allows determining the probability of completing the project on time.

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kharisma
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557 views

Calculating Slack Time and Identifying The Critical Path

The document discusses calculating slack time and identifying critical paths in project management. It explains that slack time is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire project completion date. Activities with zero slack time are on the critical path. The critical path is the longest continuous chain of activities that determines the project duration. The document then discusses incorporating variability in activity times using the PERT method, which uses three time estimates - optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic - to calculate expected activity times and project variance. This allows determining the probability of completing the project on time.

Uploaded by

kharisma
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Calculating Slack Time and Identifying the Critical Path(s)

After we have computed the earliest and latest times for all activities, it is a simple matter to
find the amount of slack time that each activity has. Slack is the length of time an activity
can be delayed without delaying the entire project. Mathematically:
Slack time= Free time for an activity. Also referred to as free float or free slack.
Slack = LS − ES or Slack = LF – EF
The activities with zero slack are called critical activities and are said to be on the critical
path.
The critical path is a continuous path through the project network that:
◆ Starts at the first activity in the project (Start in our example).
◆ Terminates at the last activity in the project (H in our example).
◆ Includes only critical activities (i.e., activities with no slack time).
Total Slack Time
Look again at the project network in Overlay 3 of Figure 3.10 . Consider activities B and D,
which have slack of 1 week each. Does it mean that we can delay each activity by 1 week,
and still complete the project in 15 weeks? The answer is no.
Let’s assume that activity B is delayed by 1 week. It has used up its slack of 1 week and now
has an EF of 4. This implies that activity D now has an ES of 4 and an EF of 8. Note that these
are also its LS and LF values, respectively. That is, activity D also has no slack time now.
Essentially, the slack of 1 week that activities B and D had is, for that path, shared between
them. Delaying either activity by 1 week causes not only that activity, but also the other
activity, to lose its slack. This type of a slack time is referred to as total slack . Typically,
when two or more noncritical activities appear successively in a path, they share total slack.

Variability in Activity Times


In identifying all earliest and latest times so far, and the associated critical path(s), we have
adopted the CPM approach of assuming that all activity times are known and fixed
constants. That is, there is no variability in activity times. However, in practice, it is likely
that activity completion times vary depending on various factors.
For example, building internal components (activity A) for Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing
is estimated to finish in 2 weeks. Clearly, supply-chain issues such as late arrival of materials,
absence of key personnel, and so on could delay this activity. Suppose activity A actually
ends up taking 3 weeks. Because A is on the critical path, the entire project will now be
delayed by 1 week to 16 weeks. If we had anticipated completion of this project in 15
weeks, we would obviously miss our Earth Day deadline.
Although some activities may be relatively less prone to delays, others could be extremely
susceptible to delays. For example, activity B (modify roof and floor) could be heavily
dependent on weather conditions. A spell of bad weather could significantly affect its
completion time.
This means that we cannot ignore the impact of variability in activity times when deciding
the schedule for a project. PERT addresses this issue.

Three Time Estimates in PERT


In PERT, we employ a probability distribution based on three time estimates for each
activity,
as follows:
Optimistic time ( a ) = time an activity will take if everything goes as planned. In estimating this value,
there should be only a small probability (say, 1/100) that the activity time will be < a .

Pessimistic time ( b ) = time an activity will take assuming very unfavorable conditions. In estimating
this value, there should also be only a small probability (also 1/100) that the activity time will be > b .

Most likely time ( m ) = most realistic estimate of the time required to complete an activity.

When using PERT, we often assume that activity time estimates follow the beta probability
distribution (see Figure 3.11 ). This continuous distribution is often appropriate for determining the
expected value and variance for activity completion times.

Optimistic time = The “best” activity completion time that could be obtained in a PERT
network
Pessimistic time = The “worst” activity time that could be expected in a PERT network.
Most likely time = The most probable time to complete an activity in a PERT network.

When using PERT, we often assume that activity time estimates follow the beta probability
distribution (see Figure 3.11 ). This continuous distribution is often appropriate for
determining the expected value and variance for activity completion times.

To find the expected activity time , t , the beta distribution weights the three time estimates as
follows:

t=(a+4m+b)∕6
That is, the most likely time ( m ) is given four times the weight as the optimistic time ( a )
and pessimistic time ( b ). The time estimate t computed using Equation (3-6) for each
activity is used in the project network to compute all earliest and latest times.
To compute the dispersion or variance of activity completion time , we use the formula
Variance = [( b − a ) ∕ 6]

Probability of Project Completion


The critical path analysis helped us determine that Milwaukee Paper’s expected project
completion time is 15 weeks. Julie Ann Williams knows, however, that there is significant
variation in the time estimates for several activities. Variation in activities that are on the
critical path can affect the overall project completion time—possibly delaying it. This is one
occurrence that worries the plant manager considerably.
PERT uses the variance of critical path activities to help determine the variance of the
overall project. Project variance is computed by summing variances of critical activities:
s2p = Project variance = Σ(variances of activities on critical path)
How can this information be used to help answer questions regarding the probability of
finishing the project on time? PERT makes two more assumptions: (1) total project
completion times follow a normal probability distribution, and (2) activity times are
statistically independent.
With these assumptions, the bell-shaped normal curve shown in Figure 3.12 can be used to
represent project completion dates. This normal curve implies that there is a 50% chance
that the manufacturer’s project completion time will be less than 15 weeks and a 50%
chance that it will exceed 15 weeks.

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