MATH 230 Probability: Exercise 5

S. Bashir
Spring, 2019

Problem 1
A student makes a trip once per day to the store, and he always buys a snack. The
student eats the snack 70% of the time, but the other 30% of the time, his roommate
eats it first.

a. During a period of four days, the student keeps track of whether he gets to eat his
snack. What is the sample space of possible outcomes?

b. Let X be the number of times, within the four day period, that he gets to eat his
snack. What is the mass of X?

c. What is the CDF of X?

.........
Solution:

a.S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}

b.
y 0
1 2
33 4
4 4 4


P (y) 0.34 1
0.7 × 0.33 2
2 2
0.7 × 0.3 3
0.7 × 0.3 0.74
= 0.0081 = 0.0756 = 0.2646 = 0.4116 = 0.2401
c.

y 0 1 2 3 4
F (y) 0.0081 0.0081 + 0.0756 = 0.0837 0.0081 + 0.0756 + 0.2646 = 0.3483 0.7959 1.00
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Problem 2
A cereal company puts a Star Wars toy watch in each of its boxes as a sales promotion.
Twenty percent of the cereal boxes contain a watch with Obi Wan Kenobi on it. You
are a huge Obi Wan fan, so you decide to buy 8 boxes of the cereal in hopes that you
will find an Obi Wan watch. Let X denote the number of Obi Wan watches you will
have from these boxes.

a. Construct pmf of X and plot it

b. What is the CDF of X? Make a plot of the CDF.

.........
Solution:

y P(y)
0 0.88
8


1 1

0.2 × 0.87
8
2 2

0.22 × 0.86
8
3 3

0.23 × 0.85
a. 8
4 4

0.24 × 0.84
8
5 5

0.25 × 0.83
8
6 6

0.26 × 0.82
8
7 7
0.27 × 0.8
8 0.28

y F(y)
8
0 0.8
8


1 0.88 + 1 0.2 × 0.87
2
3
b.
4
5
6
7
8

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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Problem 3
(Netty’s Scam): Netty the Incredible runs the following scam in her spare time:
She has a business where she forecasts the gender of the unborn child for expectant
couples, for a small price. The couple come for a visit to Netty’s office and, having
met them, Netty retires to her ante-room to gaze into her Crystal Ball. In reality,
Netty flips a coin. If the result is “Heads” , she will predict a boy and if the result
is “Tails”, she will predict a girl. Netty returns to her office and tells the couple of
what she saw in her crystal ball. She collects her fee of $100 from the couple and
promises to return $150 if she was wrong. What is the probability distribution for
Netty’s earnings per consultancy in this business?

.........
Solution:

Netty will win $100 if she wins and lose ($100 − $150 =)$50 if she loses. Let X
be the random variable which is the amount Netty wins in one consultancy. Hence
her earnings are P (X = 100) = 0.5 and P (X = −50) = 0.5.

Problem 4
An optical inspection system is to distinguish among different part types. The prob-
ability of a correct classification of any part is 0.98. Suppose that three parts are
inspected and that the classifications are independent. Let the random variable X
denote the number of parts that are correctly classified. Determine the probability
mass function of X.

.........
Solution:

X 0 1 2 3
3 3



P (X) 0.023 1
0.98 × 0.022 2
0.982 × 0.02 0.983

Problem 5
Suppose that a days production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that
do not conform to customer requirements. Two parts are selected at random, with-
out replacement, from the batch. Let the random variable X equal the number of
nonconforming parts in the sample. What is the probability mass function of X

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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.........
Solution:

50
P (N on − conf orming) = 850 = 0.059
50
P (Conf orming) = 1 − 850 = 0.941

X 0 1 2
P (X) 0.9412 2 × 0.941 × 0.059 0.0592

Problem 6
In roulette, when you bet $1 on red, if the ball lands on a red number you get your $1
back plus $1 profit, and if the ball lands on a black or a green number, you lose your
initial dollar. What is your expected earnings for this game if you bet $1 on red?

.........
Solution:

X P (X)
20 20 18 2
-1 38
E(earnings)= −1 × 38
+1× 38
= − 38
18
1 38

Problem 7
The manager of an industrial plant is planning to buy a new machine of either type
A or type B. If t denotes the number of hours of daily operation, the number of daily
repairs Y1 required to maintain a machine of type A is a random variable with mean
and variance both equal to .10t. The number of daily repairs Y2 for a machine of type
B is a random variable with mean and variance both equal to .12t. The daily cost of
operating A is CA (t) = 10t + 30Y1 ; for B it is CB (t) = 8t + 30Y2 . Assume that the
repairs take negligible time and that each night the machines are tuned so that they
operate essentially like new machines at the start of the next day. Which machine
minimizes the expected daily cost if a workday consists of

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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a. 10 hours and
b. 20 hours?

.........
Solution:

E[CA (t)] = E(10t + 30Y1 )

= 10t + 30E(Y1 )
= 10t + 30 × 0.1t
= 13t

E[CB (t)] = E(8t + 30Y2 )

= 8t + 30E(Y2 )
= 8t + 30 × 0.12t
= 11.6t
a. E[CA (t)] = 13(10) = 130 and E[CB (t)] = 11.6(10) = 116; B
b. E[CA (t)] = 13(20) = 260 and E[CB (t)] = 11.6(20) = 232; B

Problem 8
An insurance company issues a one-year $1000 policy insuring against an occurrence
A that historically happens to 2 out of every 100 owners of the policy. Administrative
fees are $15 per policy and are not part of the companys ’profit.’ How much should
the company charge for the policy if it requires that the expected profit per policy be
$50? [Hint: If C is the premium for the policy, the companys ’profit’ is C − 15 if A
does not occur and C − 15 − 1000 if A does occur.]

.........
Solution:

E(profit)=0.98(C − 15) + 0.02(C − 15 − 1000) = 50 → C = $85

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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Problem 9
A manufacturing company ships its product in two different sizes of truck trailers.
Each shipment is made in a trailer with dimensions 8 feet ×10 feet ×30 feet or 8 feet
×10 feet ×40 feet. If 30% of its shipments are made by using 30-foot trailers and 70%
by using 40-foot trailers, Find the mean volume shipped per trailer load. (Assume
that the trailers are always full.)

.........
Solution:

8 feet × 10 feet × 30 feet = 2400f t3

8 feet × 10 feet × 40 feet = 3200f t3
E(V olume) = 2400 × 0.3 + 3200 × 0.7 = 2960f t3

Problem 10
Approximately 10% of the glass bottles coming off a production line have serious flaws
in the glass. If two bottles are randomly selected, find the mean number of bottles
that have serious flaws

.........
Solution:

Let X be the number of flawed bottles. The probability mass function of X is

X 0 1 2
P(X) 0.92 2 × 0.9 × 0.1 0.12

E(X) = 0 + 2 × 0.9 × 0.1 + 2 × 0.12 = 0.182

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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Problem 11
Two construction contracts are to be randomly assigned to one or more of three firms:
I, II, and III. Any firm may receive both contracts. If each contract will yield a profit
of $90,000 for the firm,

a. find the expected profit for firm I.

b. If firms I and II are actually owned by the same individual, what is the owners
expected total profit?

.........
Solution:

a. P (C) = 13 .P (C 0 ) = 23 ;

X 0 1 2
22 1 2 12
P(X) 3
2× × 3 3 3

1 2 12
E(Profit for I) = 0 + 2 × × × 90000 + 2 × × 90000 = 60, 000
3 3 3
b. P (C) = 23 .P (C 0 ) = 13 ;

X 0 1 2
12 2 1 22
P(X) 3
2× × 3 3 3

2 1 22
E(Profit for owner) = 0 + 2 × × × 90000 + 2 × × 90000 = 120, 000
3 3 3

Problem 12
The manager of a stockroom in a factory has constructed the following probability
distribution for the daily demand (number of times used) for a particular tool.
y 0 1 2
P (y) 0.1 0.5 0.4
It costs the factory $10 each time the tool is used. Find the mean daily cost for
use of the tool.

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5

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.........
Solution:

Cost = 10y
E(y) = 0 + 1 × 0.5 + 2 × 0.4 = 0.5 + 0.8 = 1.3

E(Cost) = 10E(y) = 10 × 1.3 = 13

MATH 230 Probability Exercise 5