2016 Colorado Design Snow Loads
2016 Colorado Design Snow Loads
Prepared By
The SEAC Snow Load Committee
D. Jared DeBock, Ph.D.
James Robert Harris, P.E., Ph.D.
Abbie B. Liel, Ph.D., P.E.
Robert M. Pattillo, P.E.
Jeannette M. Torrents, P.E., Chair
April 2016
The computation of loads for a target probability of failure results in loads appropriate for
strength-based structural design. However, for convenience of use with ASCE 7, the loads
presented in this report have been divided by the load factor (1.6) prescribed for snow loads in
the ASCE 7. Thus, the loads are also appropriate for use with allowable stress design methods
and for serviceability checks.
Compared to the 2007 recommended loads, there have been small decreases in design loads in
the mountains (approximately 10 percent), and increases in recommended design loads on the
plains (approximately 50 percent to100 percent). The increased design loads on the plains are
consistent with historic and current practice, where design roof loads of 20 to 30 psf have
typically been used instead of the 50-year values. A number of other improvements have been
made. First, the new analysis utilizes approximately seven additional years of weather data
generated since the development of the 2007 map. Second, improved relationships for snow
depth and snow weight have been used. Third, a method of using all the data for large regions of
the state to better predict rare events has been incorporated. Finally, the snow loads have been
correlated with the altitude of the site and maps have been produced that provide parameters to
compute the ground snow load given the altitude of the site. The mapping process introduces a
geographic smoothing, or averaging, on top of the reliability-targeted loads, which reduces some
of the “noise” inherent in the historical records. The recommended design loads are those
determined from the mapping process.
This report documents: (a) new mapped values, including comparison to previously used values,
(b) snow load and depth data used in the development of the maps, and (c) probabilistic
approaches used to evaluate roof reliability and conduct spatial smoothing. The report also
provides recommendations for use of these loads with ASCE 7 and for future improvements.
1.1.1. The Need for Revised Design Snow Load Recommendations and a New
Map
The design snow loads described in this report revise the existing maps for Colorado in a number
of ways. First, it incorporates new snow data not available in previous analyses. Second, the new
map smooths design values between nearby sites, eliminating large jumps between adjacent
communities, and provides updated guidance on the determination of snow loads as a function of
altitude that is based on the unique climatological conditions in our state.
Finally, and most importantly, the new map revises design snow loads to ensure that the risk of
roof failure due to snow loading, or, alternatively, the structural safety and reliability for snow
loading, are consistent across the state. This report quantifies safety in terms of the reliability
index (or safety index) β, which is inversely related to the probability of failure; a higher safety
index corresponds to lower probability of failure. The national standard for loads, ASCE/SEI7
(hereafter ASCE 7), targets a safety index of 3.0 (0.13 percent probability of failure in 50 years)
for failure mechanisms that are not sudden and do not lead to widespread progression in ordinary
occupancy (Risk Category II) buildings under snow loads1. Previously, designing roofs for a 50-
year snow load was assumed to satisfy these criteria, but analyses show that a 50-year load is
conservative in some areas of Colorado and non-conservative in others. The SEAC 2007 design
snow load recommendations, which are based on a uniform hazard of a 50-year mean recurrence
interval (MRI) snow load, produce safety indices ranging from approximately β = 2 on the plains
(2.3 percent probability of failure in 50 years) to β = 3.5 in the mountains (0.02 percent
probability of failure in 50 years) for ordinary occupancy buildings. The probability of failure is
higher on the plains because of the larger variability in annual maximum snow loads on the
plains as compared to the mountains, where snowfall and accumulation are more consistent from
year to year. The large variability in annual maximum snow loads means that plains sites are
more likely to experience loads that are significantly greater than their 50-year loads during the
life of the structure, causing roof failures. These discrepancies in safety and building
performance across the state of Colorado are in need of resolution.
1
The target of β = 3.0 is found in Table C3.1.3.1a of ASCE 7-10. These targets will be moved to the body of the
standard in future editions.
1
that are sudden or lead to wide-spread progression of damage through resistance factors and
other provisions.” ASCE 7 targets other safety levels for different Risk Categories and includes
load adjustment factors for other Risk Categories, and this report includes recommendations to
modify those adjusting factors to achieve consistent reliability targets. The design loads
recommended in this report are developed to achieve the target safety objective, an approach that
is fundamentally different than current practice, which is to design for a uniform hazard (e.g. a
50-year snow load). As a result, the recommended design ground snow loads are decreased in the
mountains and increased on the plains of Colorado to meet the uniform safety objective. The
concept of targeting a consistent safety or reliability rather than consistent hazard is not new to
the Structural Engineering profession. For example, Ellingwood and Tekie (1999) address the
need to target uniform reliability with regard to wind loading and the ASCE 7-10 Maximum
Considered Earthquake (MCE) values are risk-based rather than hazard-based (Luco et al. 2007).
In most parts of the state (except for locations east of the Rocky Mountains and below 6500 ft.
altitude), if the site of interest is higher altitude than a nearby tabulated site, the design ground
snow load should be adjusted from the tabulated values using Equation 1.1.
, = , ∗ 1.1,
where pg,site and pg,tabulated are the design ground snow load at the building site and at the
tabulated location, respectively, and Asite and Atabulated are the altitudes of the building site and the
tabulated location in thousands of ft., respectively. If the site of interest is lower in altitude than
For locations East of the Rocky Mountains and below 6500 ft. altitude, the tabulated loads may
be used without modification for sites lower in altitude than the tabulated location and also up to
250 ft. higher in altitude than the tabulated location. Otherwise, refer to Equation 1.2 in the
section entitled Mapped Design Values to determine the design ground snow load.
The development of the design snow load values is described in detail in Part 2 of this report.
Wolf Creek ski area base Mineral 37.47 -106.79 10650 295
In this map, the state is divided into three regions: (1) east of the Rocky Mountains below 6500
ft. altitude, (2) the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains above 6500 ft., and (3) the remainder
of the state.
East of the Rockies, below 6500 ft. altitude (i.e. the first region), Equation 1.2 should be used to
compute the ground snow loads:
, = 10 − 15 , 30 1.2,
In the second and third regions, a parameter K is mapped for determining design ground snow
loads. Design ground snow loads are determined based on K by Equation 1.3:
, = ∗ , 1.3,
100
where pg,site is the design ground snow load and Asite is the altitude of the building site in
thousands of feet. MIN is 50 psf for the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains above 6500 ft.
(i.e. region 2) and 25 psf for areas not on the eastern slope. Equation 1.3 is only applicable
below 11,500 ft. altitude, where contours of the parameter K are mapped. For sites between
contours K should be interpolated between the nearby contours. When determining the value of
K from the map, it is important to note that the map is partitioned along mountain ridges, where
the contour lines for the parameter K are interrupted. Therefore, when interpolating between
contours on the map for the value of K at a location, treat such discontinuities as a boundary and
extrapolate from contours on the same side of the ridge. Many, but not all, of these
discontinuities are locations above 11,500 ft. The detailed development of these equations and
the parameter map is discussed in Part 2 of this report.
Therefore, the committee recommends that the snow loading importance factor (Is) be computed
by Equation 1.4 for Risk Category IV buildings. For Risk Category III buildings, Is should be
taken as the average of Equation 1.4 and the value 1.0. No change is recommended for the
importance factors for Risk Category I and II buildings.
where A is the site altitude in thousands of feet. Development of Equation 1.4 is documented in
Appendix A4.3.
Drifting on Plains and Other High Exposure Areas
The ASCE 7 recommendation for snow drift loads are derived from data obtained across a wide
range of climates. More extreme drifts are known to occur where prolonged and strong winds are
typical, and studies are currently underway to attempt to quantify this effect. This type of
behavior has been observed on the plains of Colorado, as well as sites above timberline. The
committee does not have enough information to make a quantitative recommendation, but does
make a general recommendation that engineers consider maximum roof drift widths greater than
the maximum roof drift widths specified in ASCE 7 for buildings with roof steps that are located
on exposed sites on the plains. This phenomenon occurs because large snow storms in those
regions are often accompanied by long duration winds (on the order of days) oriented in a
consistent direction. If the wind direction is perpendicular to the roof step, a large snow drift will
form. Designing for snow drift widths beyond what is required in ASCE 7 is ultimately at the
discretion of the engineer and the authority having jurisdiction.
In addition to improving the recommendations for design snow loads, there are other
improvements that may be needed for snow design procedures more generally. Two areas of
possible improvement are the criteria for calculated snow drift loads on roofs with steps, ridges,
or valleys and the snow load duration factor for wood construction. Current snow drifting criteria
and duration factors are based on data sets that neither come from, nor are consistent with, snow
loading that is observed in portions of the state of Colorado. Therefore, Colorado-specific
analyses of snow drifting and load duration are important topics for future study.
1.4. Acknowledgments
The committee gratefully acknowledges Dick Cunningham for his extensive efforts in getting
this new edition of the SEAC snow loads started, Mike DePaolo for his innovative studies and
new techniques for classifying and determining ground snow loads, Bruce Ellingwood for his
counsel and advice on statistical analysis, and Derek Kozak and Dania Hussain for their work on
reliability assessment of buildings under snow loads. In addition, drafts of this report have been
reviewed by the members of SEAC and related experts in the fields of study; their review
comments are gratefully acknowledged.
2
Timberline is defined as 11,500 ft. altitude in this study, although the precise altitude varies across the state.
3
The ground to roof snow load conversion for the reliability assessments is discussed in Part 2 and in Appendix 2
The target safety index of 3 is for relatively benign4 structural failures in ordinary Risk Category
buildings (Risk Category II). Target safety indices for buildings belonging to risk categories I,
III, and IV, are 2.5, 3.25, and 3.5, respectively (ASCE 2010). Adjustments in snow loads to
achieve the different reliability targets for different Risk Category buildings are achieved through
snow load importance factors that are associated with each Risk Category in ASCE 7. As
recommended in Section 1.2.3, the snow load importance factors for non-Risk Category II
buildings should be adjusted to meet the desired safety objectives. The basis for these adjusted
importance factors is described in Appendix 4.
The procedures for determining the proposed design ground snow loads are outlined as follows:
(1) Data acquisition and processing; (2) Reliability analysis; (3) Mapping of reliability based
ground snow loads.
4
“Relatively benign” means a failure limit state that gives warning (generally, meaning the failure is ductile) and
does not precipitate a widespread failure vertically or horizontally. It is the intent of ASCE 7 that adjustments in
safety for other types of limit states are accomplished through resistance factors in material design standards.
5
These stations are distinctly different from the town/city locations listed in Table 1.1 of the report.
SNOTEL Stations
SNOTELs are automated stations that measure the weight of snow (SWE) via a fluid-filled
pillow that senses pressure from the snow on top of it (NRCS 2015). The data are electronically
transmitted to a central repository. SNOTEL stations are often located in remote mountainous
areas where accessibility is limited, and they have replaced a number of Snow Course stations
over the years. Many SNOTEL stations also have sensors to measure snow depth. Data from 117
SNOTEL stations are collected from the NRCS website for this study.
The following criteria are implemented to determine if snow stations are in close enough
proximity for their records to be combined: (1) plains stations (east of the Front Range and below
5,000 ft. altitude) within approximately twelve miles and 500 ft. altitude of each other, (2)
stations above 6,000 ft. altitude within approximately two miles and 300 ft. altitude of each
other, and (3) any other stations within approximately five miles and 300 ft. altitude of each
other. These criteria are based on observations of snow recordings at adjacent stations and the
judgment of the SEAC Snow Load Committee.
When a snow site consists of multiple stations that have data for the same year, direct weight
measurements are given priority over snow weights that are converted from depth measurements.
If there are multiple stations with the same data type in a given year (i.e., all having direct weight
measurements or all having depth measurements that are converted to weights), then the
maximum annual snow weight for that year is taken as the maximum from all of the contributing
stations.
6
The authors conducted sensitivity studies showing that the reliability analysis results are insensitive to the roof
geometry and other design assumptions.
7
The 0.7 factor increases to 1.0 as the ground snow load decreases from 28.6 psf to 20 psf, in accordance with the
minimum snow load provisions of ASCE 7.
Each simulation generates a random realization of demand on the roof and a random realization
of the capacity of the roof, considering uncertainties in these quantities as described in more
detail below. These values are compared to determine if the test structure fails in a given
realization. The total number of failures divided by the total number of simulations is the
expected annual rate of failure (λ). The probability of failure for a 50-year time period (Pf,50) is
then computed by the Poisson distribution in Equation 2.2 and converted to a reliability index β
by Equation 2.3:
where Φ:; is the inverse standard normal cumulative distribution function. The β defined by
ASCE 7 is based on a 50-year service life of the structure.
8
If the theoretical value of the safety index is β = 3.0, it can be shown by constructing a confidence interval with a
binomial distribution that β computed from 10 million Monte Carlo simulations will be within ± 0.03 of the true
theoretical value approximately 90% of the time.
9
For statistical analysis, we use our best estimate for the ground to roof conversion, which should not be confused
with the ground to roof conversion factor of 0.7 that is used for the design step.
10
Note that the Copper Mountain altitude that is cited here is for the recording station on the slope of the mountain
and not at the population center that is reported in Table 1.1.
The reason that mountain sites such as Copper Mountain tend to have reliability-targeted loads
that are lower than their 50-year loads is because the distribution of annual maximum snow loads
have relatively light upper tails (e.g. Figure 2.2); this means that loads significantly larger than
their 50-year load are extremely rare, so the 50-year load times the 1.6 factor is too conservative
for design. For example, the 50-year load for the Copper Mountain site is 110 psf and the
logarithmic standard deviation that describes the tail of the distribution is approximately 0.20;
therefore, an ultimate design load of 1.6 times the 50-year load (176 psf) has a mean recurrence
interval of approximately 146,000 years, which is extremely rare.. A design ground snow load of
98 psf, 11 percent lower than the 50-year load, results in β=3 at the Copper Mountain snow site.
The new design point (1.6 times 98 psf = 157 psf) has a mean recurrence interval of
approximately 13,000 years.
The opposite is true for sites like Denver-Stapleton. High variability of annual maximum snow
loads at these sites results in heavy-tailed ground snow load distributions (e.g. Figure 2.4), which
means that loads significantly higher than the 50-year load are much less rare at these sites. For
example, the 50-year load at Denver-Stapleton is approximately 20 psf and the logarithmic
standard deviation that describes the upper tail shape of the distribution is 0.75. A design point of
1.6 times the 50-year load (32 psf) has a mean recurrence interval of 265 years and has actually
been observed in Denver within the last 100 years. A design point with such a short mean
recurrence interval is inadequate for the desired structural safety, which is why design ground
snow loads at heavy-tailed snow sites need to be significantly larger than their 50-year values. A
design ground snow load of 34 psf, 70 percent higher than the 50-year load, results in β =3 at the
Denver-Stapleton snow site. The new design point (1.6 times 34 psf = 54 psf) has a mean
recurrence interval of approximately 2,700 years. This design ground snow load results in a
design flat roof snow load of 25 psf, which is consistent with local practice.
A third location, Yampa (Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6), is an example of a site whose annual
maximum ground snow load distribution has a shape that is consistent with the assumptions for
determining the ASCE 7 snow load factor of 1.6 for factoring 50-year snow loads. As seen in
Figure 2.5, the design ground snow load that leads to β=3.0 is 46 psf, which is very near the 50-
year load of 47 psf. The design point (1.6 x 46 = 74 psf) has a mean recurrence interval of
approximately 6,700 years.
Figure 2.2. Histogram of historical maximum annual ground snow loads at the Copper Mountain snow site
(altitude=10550 ft.). The fitted Lognormal Probability Density Function scaled to match the scale of the
histogram is overlain. The parameters of the distribution are: median=73 psf and logarithmic standard
deviation=0.20.
Figure 2.4. Histogram of maximum annual historical ground snow loads at the Denver-Stapleton snow site
(altitude=5290 ft.). The fitted Lognormal Probability Density Function scaled to match the scale of the
histogram is overlain. The parameters of the distribution are: median=4.3 psf and logarithmic standard
deviation=0.75.
Figure 2.6. Histogram of historical maximum annual ground snow loads at the Yampa snow site
(altitude=7860 ft.). The fitted Lognormal Probability Density Function scaled to match the scale of the
histogram is overlain. The parameters of the distribution are: median=25 psf and logarithmic standard
deviation=0.30.
The eastern portion of the state sees little change in design ground snow loads with location.
Therefore, the discussion in this section mostly focuses on the remainder of the state where
altitude and snow loading are both highly variable.
West of the 6500 ft. altitude contour on the eastern slope of the Rockies, a parameter K is
mapped. The parameter K is combined with altitude to compute the design ground snow load,
= ∗ , !"# 2.6,
100
where pg is the design ground snow load at a building location in psf, A is altitude in thousands
of feet, K is a parameter determined from the proposed map, and MIN is 50 psf on the eastern
slope of the Rockies and 25 psf elsewhere. Mapped values of K provide a cleaner, simpler map
than if we mapped pg directly, due to big changes in altitude in some parts of the state. Equation
2.6 applies at altitudes below 11,500 ft. wherever values of K are given on the map. Areas above
11,500 ft. require expert judgment and/or site-specific analysis to determine their ground snow
loads, as described in Section 1.2.3.
Consider the two-dimensional graphic of an example region in Figure 2.7. The reliability-
targeted snow loads at the snow sites with data available (blue triangles) are 30 psf, 80 psf, and
40 psf, from left to right. Suppose that one is interested in determining the design ground snow
loads at the intermediate sites marked by the two red stars. A contour map constructed from the
calculated design ground snow loads would interpolate between the known points, predicting
design ground snow loads of 55 psf and 60 psf at the base of the mountain and the top of the
mountain, respectively. Both of those estimations are inaccurate. The most obvious problem in
this example is that the site at the top of the mountain (9500 ft. altitude) would have a ground
snow load 25 percent lower than the site that is part way up the mountain (8300 ft. altitude).
Therefore, the option of generating a state-wide contour map of design ground snow loads from
the 327 discrete snow sites, without explicitly accounting for altitude, is ruled out.
Now let us reconsider the same two intermediate sites in Figure 2.7, but account for their
altitudes. Using the proposed mapping approach, one can determine that the value of the
parameter K in Equation 2.6 is approximately 14 for the example region. This K value is based
Snow Site
pg≠60 psf
Intermediate Location
pg≈120 psf
Ground Elevation
pg=80 psf
Figure 2.7. Two dimensional elevation view of three snow sites (blue triangles) and two intermediate sites (red
stars). Design ground snow loads (pg) at the intermediate sites are estimated by interpolation between the
snow sites with and without consideration of their altitudes. Estimates not accounting for altitude are pg≠XX
psf, and estimates that account for altitude are pg≈XX psf.
1) Compute the theoretical value of the map parameter K at each snow site (327 locations)
by rearranging Equation 2.6 and plugging in the altitude and reliability-targeted design
ground snow load.
2) Establish “Fault Lines,” which are lines of allowed discontinuity in the contour plot,
using expert judgment and local knowledge. These are mostly at mountain ridges that
separate areas with different snow accumulation patterns.
3) Establish a grid of approximately 50,000 points across the state, located at approximately
1.5 mile intervals, which provide the basis for the map.
4) For a grid point of interest, Surfer searches for the nearest 12 neighboring snow sites
without crossing fault lines.
5) A weighted average of the parameter K is computed for the grid point from the identified
12 neighboring snow sites. The contribution of each snow site to the weighted average is
inversely proportional to its distance from the point of interest to the power 2.0.
6) Steps 4 and 5 are repeated for every grid point in the state of Colorado and contours of K
are interpolated from the values at the grid points.
Figure 2.9. Design ground snow loads from the map, plotted against design ground snow loads that are
computed directly from reliability analysis for the four main regions of the state of Colorado. Each plot has a
blue 45 degree line to indicate what a perfect match would be.
Figure 2.10. Ratio of the computed reliability-targeted design ground snow load (for β=3) to the 50-year
ground snow load at the 327 snow sites in Colorado.
In addition to a having a different basis for determining design snow loading, the two older
editions of the SEAC snow load recommendations utilize different methods of mapping those
loads. The 2007 snow load map shows contours of design ground snow loads, but it does not do
any spatial smoothing of those loads before generating the contours, nor does it fully account for
altitude. The 1971 version maps a parameter that must be combined with a site’s altitude to
compute the design snow load. This approach is similar to the proposed mapping method that is
11
This indicates that a large number of snow-induced failures should have been observed on the plains over the
course of the last century. That is not the case, however, because it has been common practice to design for roof
snow loads of 20 psf – 30 psf on the plains, despite the 50-year load being much lower.
Lastly, more data are available now than were available at the time that previous editions of the
SEAC snow map were produced. However, we note that differences due to increases in available
data are less significant than the differences that are due to changes in the basis for computing
the design snow load values and the methods by which they are mapped.
General conclusions about the differences in recommended design snow loads between the three
editions of the snow map are made by comparing example design ground snow load values in
Table 2.1. The 2015 map tends to provide loads that are slightly lower than the 1971 map at most
locations. It also recommends loads that are lower than the 2007 map at high altitude locations,
but the loads are higher than the 2007 map at low altitude locations.
Table 2.1 Design ground snow loads (pg) at 17 example locations in Colorado
1971
1971 Map Tabulated
Lat. Lon. Alt. (Converted (Converted 2007 2007 2015 2015
City/Town (deg.) (deg.) (ft.) to pg) to pg) Map Tabulated Map Tabulated
Aspen 39.19 -106.82 7890 99 107 105 105 75 75
Boulder 40.01 -105.27 5330 45 43 28 25 38 40
Carbondale 39.40 -107.21 6170 50 57 90 90 49 50
Colorado
Springs 38.83 -104.82 6010 46 43 70 20 45 45
(downtown)
Colorado
Springs
38.81 -104.68 6150 48 NA 20 20 46 NA
Municipal
Airport
2.5. Conclusions
For the first time, a map of reliability-consistent design ground snow loads has been developed
for the state of Colorado. The development of this map was in response to a recognition that the
current LRFD design load factor for snow loads (i.e. 1.6), when applied to a ground snow load
that has a 50-year mean recurrence interval, does not lead to consistent safety against snow-
induced collapse across the state of Colorado. The committee believes that inconsistent
reliability is not a Colorado-specific issue, and this study is an example of one solution to that
problem.
The new reliability-targeted design ground snow loads target a safety index of β=3.0, which is
the stated safety objective of the ASCE 7 for relatively benign structural failures in ordinary Risk
Category buildings (Risk Category II). The new loads are on the order of 50 to 100 percent larger
than the 50-year loads in the plains and approximately 10 percent lower than the 50-year loads at
high elevation locations. Although the increases of design ground snow loads for the plains seem
large, they result in roof snow loads that are consistent with current and historic design practice
in that portion of the state, which is to design roofs for 20 to 30 psf of snow load.
Bartlett, F.M, Dexter, R.J., Graeser, M.D., Jelinek, J.J., Schmidt, B.J. & Galambos, T.V. (2003). “Updating
Standard Shape Material Properties Database for Design and Reliability” Eng. J., First Qrt.
DePaolo, M. (2013). A Proposal for a Unified Process to Improve Probabilistic Ground Snow Loads in the
Ellingwood, B., MacGregor, J.G., Galambos, T.V., & Cornell, C.A. (1982). “Probability based load criteria:
load factors and load combinations.” J. Struct. Div., 108(5), 978-997.
Galambos, T.V. & Ravindra, M.K. (1978). “Properties of Steel for use in LRFD.” J. Struct. Div., 104(9),
1459-1468.
Golden Software (2015). Surfer 12. Golden Software, Inc. Golden, CO.
Kennedy, D.J.L., & Aly, M.G. (1980). Limit states design of steel structures-performance
factors. Canadian J. Civil Eng, 7(1), 45-77.
Lind, N.C. (1977). “Rationalizations of Sections Properties Tables.” J. Struct. Div., Vol. 103, No. 3, March
1977, pp. 649-662.
NRCS (2015). Natural Resources Conservation Center: National Water and Climate Center.
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/. (Last accessed March 17, 2015).
Luco, N., Ellingwood, B. R., Hamburger, R. O., Hooper, J. D., Kimball, J. K., and Kircher, C. (2007).
“Risk-targeted versus current seismic design maps for the conterminous United States.” SEAOC 2007
Convention Proc., Structural Engineers Association of California, Sacramento, CA
NWS (2015). National Weather Service. http://www.weather.gov. (Last accessed March, 2015)
Schmidt, B. J., & Bartlett, F. M. (2002). “Review of resistance factor for steel: resistance distributions and
resistance factor calibration.” Canadian J. Civil Eng., 29(1), 109-118.
SEAC (1971). Snow Load Design Data for Colorado. Prepared by SEAC.
SEAC, (2007). Colorado Ground Snow Loads. Prepared by the SEAC Snow Load Committee.
WRCC (2015). Western Regional Climate Center. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/. (Last Accessed March, 2015)
Settled snow sites are at lower altitudes and are characterized by ground snow that tends to melt
off between snowstorms. The annual maximum snow loads at settled snow sites are often the
result of only one storm and snow at these sites is generally less dense because there is less time
for it to consolidate. This study considers settled snow sites in the state of Colorado to be those
located east of the Rocky Mountains with altitude less than 6500 ft. and those located in or west
of the Rocky Mountains with altitude less than 5500 ft. The criteria for settled snow sites are
based on the judgment and experience of the SEAC Snow Load Committee. The upper limit
altitude for settled snow sites is lower in the Rocky Mountains and western portion of Colorado
than in the eastern part of the state, because snow in mountain valleys tends to persist longer
without melting than snow in the eastern portion of the state at similar altitudes.
Separate depth-to-weight relationships are employed for compacted and settled snow sites,
because compacted snow is generally denser than settled snow. There is also a large portion of
the state of Colorado that does not meet the criteria for compacted or settled snow; snow sites in
these areas are termed “intermediate” snow sites. This study considers intermediate snow sites as
a hybrid combination of settled and compacted snow. Conversions of snow depth to snow weight
for the three snow types (compacted, settled, and intermediate) are presented in the sections that
follow.
Two possible depth-to-weight relationships are shown on Figure A1.1: (1) a power curve
developed by Tobiason and Greatorex (1997), and (2) a power curve fitted to the Colorado
specific data. The Tobiasson and Greatorex (1997) relationship and the power curve fitted to the
Colorado snow course data are described by Equations A1.1 and A1.2, respectively.
Examination of Figure A1.1 shows that the power curve that is fitted specifically to the Colorado
compacted snow data predicts snow weight better than the Tobiasson and Greatorex relationship,
which underestimates density at compacted snow sites. This is reasonable because their
relationship was not developed for high altitude sites where compacted snow conditions are
expected. Therefore, annual maximum depth data are converted to annual maximum weights by
Equation A1.2 at compacted snow sites where only snow depth data are available.
Figure A1.2 Annual maximum snow weight vs. annual maximum snow depth for settled snow sites in the
state of Colorado.
12
A fundamental difference, however, is that the Tobiasson and Greatorex relationship was fitted to 50-year maxima
of snow depth and weight, rather than annual maxima. This difference does not appear to bias the predictions for
Colorado settled snow data.
The analyses conducted to investigate the variability in the depth-to-weight conversions are
presented in Figure A1.3. Figure A1.3 compares statistics of annual maximum weight data that
are computed from two kinds of weight data: (1) weights computed indirectly from depth
measurements by depth-to-weight conversions (i.e. “converted” weight data) and (2) weight data
that are measured. For this comparison, only the 133 snow sites having both depth and weight
recordings are used. For each site, the ratio of four statistics that describe the annual maximum
weights are compared: mean, coefficient of variation, 50-year load (weight), and the design snow
load to produce a safety index of 3. On average, the ratio of the statistic computed from
converted weight data to that computed from recorded weight data is approximately 1.0,
although it varies from site to site as shown in Figure A1.3. First, we observe that our estimates
of those statistics are unbiased on average. Since our goal is to produce our best estimates of the
design loads that will result in a safety index of 3, annual maximum depth measurements are
converted directly to annual maximum weights, without incorporating the uncertainty of the
conversions, since this is shown to be an unbiased approach. However, our confidence in the
annual maximum weight statistics that are determined from converted weight data is lower than
if actual snow weights had been measured. This additional source of uncertainty is not
considered in the analysis.
SEAC (2007). Colorado Ground Snow Loads. Prepared by the SEAC Snow Load Committee.
Probabilistic models for determining roof snow loads based on ground snow loads have been
developed in the past, notably Ellingwood and O’Rourke (1985). Based on the data available at
the time, they determined that the ratio of roof snow load to ground snow load (i.e. GR) is
approximately lognormally distributed with a median of 0.47 and logarithmic standard deviation
of 0.42. Additional data has been collected since Ellingwood and O’Rourke published their
results in 1985, so this study uses a new data set to make a more refined GR model.
As shown in Figure A2.1, there is significant variability in GR, but there is also an apparent
downward trend such that the GR is smaller for higher roof loads. This occurs because large
ground snow loads are often the result of snow accumulating over time, and roof snow weight
tends to decrease more quickly with time than does ground snow weight, due to factors such as
wind removal, melting, and sublimation.
For use in Monte Carlo simulation analysis, it is ideal that the GR model have an analytical form
to aid fast simulation of large sets of random variables. However, the nature of the data does not
lend itself well to fitting an analytical function directly to it; specifically, it is not homoscedastic
and it is not linearized through a simple transformation (e.g. a log transformation). Consequently,
the GR model is fit to the data in two steps: a nonparametric model is fit to the data in step one,
and that model is used to inform an analytical model that is developed in step 2.
The local polynomial regression is a moving weighted regression of the natural log of GR vs.
ground snow weight. For each of the 25 selected ground snow weights, a weighted linear
regression is performed using the closest 20 percent of the data points (distances between data
points are measured by the difference in ground snow weight) to determine the median and
where - is the ground snow weight in psf and CDE is the logarithmic standard deviation of GR.
The analytical GR model, plus and minus one logarithmic standard deviation, is shown with solid
and dashed black lines in Figure A2.2, and the model for the logarithmic standard deviation of
GR is also shown in Figure A2.3.
Figure A2.2 Local polynomial (i.e. moving median) and analytical approximations of GR, with the ratio of
roof snow weight to ground snow weight for the recorded data underlain. Raw data was collected by Høibø
(1988, 1989) and obtained from Thiis and O’Rourke (2015).
The first limitation of the GR model is that there is insufficient data beyond ground snow weights
of approximately 80 psf. Due to a lack of knowledge about GR beyond 80 psf, the function that
is selected to model GR has an asymptote of 0.4, which is nearly reached at a ground snow load
of 80 psf. The SEAC Snow Load Committee hypothesizes that the median GR should decrease
below 0.4 at ground snow weights greater than those in the data set. However, without GR data
to confirm the hypothesis, we are compelled to constrain the GR model to a median value of 0.4
13
A sensitivity study showed that ground snow loads less than 25 psf would account for approximately 0%-1% of
roof failures in buildings designed for ground snow loads of 25 psf, assuming there are no design or construction
defects.
The second limitation is that the data used to fit the GR model was obtained from unheated roofs
with slopes up to 45° having a variety of exposures (Thiis and O’Rourke 2015), whereas the
reliability analyses in this study that utilize the GR model consider only flat roofs with normal
thermal conditions and exposure. Since the surfaces of the roofs represented by the data set were
primarily rough (non-slippery), it is unlikely that roof slope significantly affects the GR data.
However, it is highly likely that the recorded GRs are biased high (i.e. conservative), since the
data is mostly coming from unheated roofs, where snow melting occurs more slowly. In addition,
we note that the variety of exposure types and thermal conditions increases the scatter of the
data. As a result, the logarithmic standard deviation of the GR model is most certainly
overestimated, which adds to the conservatism of the model. Corrections could be made to the
GR model to account for roof thermal conditions and exposure, but the necessary information to
do so is not currently available.
The third limitation is that, if the GR model is used to simulate random values of GR in a Monte
Carlo reliability analysis, it is possible to get GR greater than 1.0, particularly at lower ground
snow loads. Physically, GR > 1 in the reliability assessment implies that the annual maximum
roof snow weight is greater than the annual maximum ground snow weight. The committee
acknowledges that there are circumstances under which the roof snow weight may be larger than
the ground snow weight (such as a roof that is colder than the ground and accumulates snow
more quickly), but it is unlikely that the difference between them is large. Therefore, for
simulation purposes, GR values are capped at 1.25; this upper bound is based on the judgment
and experience of the SEAC Snow Load Committee, and the committee expects that it is
conservative.
A2.5. Conclusions
An analytical model to predict the median and logarithmic standard deviation of the ground to
roof snow weight conversion factor (GR) is fit to a Norwegian data set that consists of
simultaneous measurements of roof snow weight and ground snow weight. The use of this new
data set allows us to quantify GR as a function of the ground snow load. This change reduces the
median GR at large loads (>80 psf) to approximately 0.4, rather than the 0.47 used in older
models. In addition, this change reduces the error term (i.e. the logarithmic standard deviation)
from 0.42 to 0.33. Nonetheless, the predictions of median GR and its logarithmic standard
deviation are conservatively high due to limitations of the model and of the data set to which it is
fit, particularly at large snow loads. Without additional data, there is not a statistically defensible
way to either quantify or eliminate these biases. Despite this conservatism, the use of the new
GR model reduces the estimates of roof loads compared to the previously used Ellingwood
model, thus improving the reliability assessed at all Colorado sites.
Fan, J., & Gijbels, I. (1996). Local polynomial modeling and its applications: Monographs on statistics and
applied probability 66 (Vol. 66). CRC Press.
Probability density functions that represent annual maximum ground snow loads at a given site
are computed in two stages. First, a distribution is fit specifically to the annual maximum snow
weight data at each individual site (“site-specific” distribution fitting). Next, the upper tail of the
distribution is adjusted to account for information from snow data at similar sites. This appendix
describes the site-specific tail-fitting approach that is used, as well as the method for adjusting
the distribution upper tails to account for observations at similar snow sites.
An example of the tail-fitting technique applied to the same Denver-Stapleton data is shown in
Figure A3.1. Figure A3.1 shows that the tail-fit distribution captures the tail behavior well,
whereas the upper tail of the recorded data is thicker than what is predicted by a lognormal
distribution fitted to the entire data set. For comparison, the 50-year load according to the tail-fit
Lognormal distribution is 20.5 psf, versus 17.1 psf for the Lognormal fitted to all of the data and
20.4 psf for the Type II distribution (which is the best fit distribution if the data are fit to the
entire data set). We note also that the tail-fit distribution often does not match the observed data
for low snow loads, but low snow loads are not important for the reliability assessment, because
they do not cause failures.
Figure A3.1 Probability plot of a tail-fit lognormal distribution for the Denver-Stapleton data alongside a
lognormal distribution fitted to the entire data set. The thickened part of the solid line represents the range
over which the tail-fitted distribution was fitted (i.e. upper 33 percent of the data points).
Figure A3.2 Histogram of the Denver-Stapleton annual maximum snow loads with four different tail-fit
distributions overlaid, in addition to a Type II distribution fitted to the entire data set.
Therefore, it is concluded that Lognormal tail-fit distributions are satisfactory for predicting rare
loads with up to approximately 50-year recurrence intervals, but they may be unsatisfactory for
predicting extremely rare loads (e.g. 500 or 1000 year loads) unless the data are actually
lognormally distributed in the far tail. In this study, Lognormal tail-fit distributions are used to
predict 20-year loads at each site, which is needed in the later analysis.
If the true underlying distribution of the data were known, then a simple solution for predicting
extreme loads would be to use the true distribution, rather than a lognormal distribution.
However, determining the true underlying distribution of annual maximum snow loads at a site is
not as simple as selecting the distribution that fits the data best. There are two reasons for this
assertion. The first is that randomness of the data can result in the selection of a best-fit
distribution that is not the true underlying distribution. For example, a sensitivity study showed
that random 50-year data sets generated from a Lognormal distribution with logarithmic standard
deviation of 0.6 are identified as being Type II distributions (i.e. best fit by a Type II) more often
than they are identified as Lognormal. This misidentification occurs partly because the Type II
distribution has three parameters and is therefore more adaptable to intricacies of a particular
dataset, even when those intricacies are random and not actually real properties of the true
underlying distribution. In this example, fitting a Type II distribution to data whose true parent
distribution is not Type II is relatively inconsequential for predicting loads with mean recurrence
intervals near or within the span of the data, but it results in large disparities at extremely large
loads, similar to the disparities shown among the various distributions in Figure A3.3 and Table
A3.1.
The second reason that determining snow load distributions based only site-specific analyses is
not practical is because data records at individual sites are not long enough to verify whether a
best-fit distribution for the 30 to100 years of recorded data is still applicable for loads as rare as
500-1000 years. It may be that the extreme upper tails are described by distributions that are
different than those that describe the bulk of the data below the extreme upper tail, or it may be
that they do not follow any particular probability density function at all. If each snow site is
analyzed in isolation, these problems are difficult to overcome. However, further insight about
the true shapes of the distribution tails over the range that is critical for the reliability assessment
is achieved by accounting for observations at several similar snow sites collectively, as described
in the following sections.
To explain, we start with a simple case, wherein several snow sites are assumed to have the same
underlying distribution, in terms of the mean as well as the shape of the upper tail of the
distribution. This assumption may be valid for the eastern plains of Colorado, for example,
where there are not big variations in climate from site to site. For this case, the procedure is as
simple as combining the data from multiple stations to create one large data set. A collection of
20 snow sites having 50 years of annual maximum snow data per site, for example, could be
combined to make a single station with 20x50=1000 data points. In this example, a distribution
fit to the enlarged data set can allow a better prediction of rare loads having up to a 1000-year
mean recurrence interval without extrapolation. If all of the contributing snow sites are expected
to have the same distribution shape and magnitude, then the enlarged data set provides a better
estimation of that distribution.
Combining data from multiple sites to obtain and enlarged data record assumes that the snow
data from the different sites are statistically independent. However, sites in a common region are
often affected by the same storm and, as a result, the annual maxima at different sites are likely
to be correlated. Some of this correlation is eliminated by combining nearby snow sites into
single stations before fitting the distributions. However the correlation is not entirely eliminated,
so its potential impact on the resulting fitted distributions was determined by a sensitivity study.
To test the impact of correlation between annual maximum snow loads, random sets of historical
snow data were sampled from a known distribution, with and without correlation between them.
The correlated data sets had correlation coefficients between them of 0.6, which is based on the
correlation coefficient between the Denver and Boulder historical snow records. The distribution
fitting methods that are explained in this appendix were applied to the simulated data. The results
showed that correlations between snow sites reduces the confidence in the fitted distribution
parameters, because the impacts of correlations among data are similar to the impact of reducing
the size of the data set. However, the presence of correlations did not bias the estimates of the
distribution parameters significantly (less than 5% bias was introduced by the correlation).
For the case where the magnitudes of the annual maximum snow weight distributions are
expected to vary among snow sites, the process of combining the data to make a single enlarged
data set is described by the following steps, which are illustrated in Figure A3.4 - Figure A3.7:
1. Select a group of snow sites whose distribution shapes are expected to be similar to that
of the site of interest (see Section A3.3.2).
2. For each site, determine the 20-year load using a site-specific tail-fit lognormal
distribution (refer to Section A3.2.2).
3. Scale each site’s historical record so that the 20-year load is equal to the average 20-year
load for all of the sites in the group.
4. Combine all of the scaled data into an enlarged data set.
The distributions resulting from this procedure match the 20-year load at each site, but have
upper tails whose shapes are informed by a number of sites whose upper tail behaviors are
expected to be similar. Therefore, they maintain a site-specific scale, or magnitude, but a
regionally-informed tail shape. This process is referred to as “clustered station distribution
fitting” for the remainder of this appendix, because clusters of sites are used for determining
distribution tail shapes.
This procedure is different than fitting a distribution to the data at one site without considering
adjacent and similar sites in another significant way. Considering one site at a time, it is not
unusual to discard the largest recorded value as an outlier based on statistical tests. Combined
normalized data from several similar sites results in such data points not being discarded,
because they represent the truly rare event for the group of sites.
Figure A3.4 Illustration of Steps 1-2 of the cluster station distribution fitting procedure, for four hypothetical
sites (noting that a minimum of 20 sites are used for the actual procedure). At this stage, tail-fit distributions
have been developed at each site and their 20-year loads have been determined. Historical records for each
hypothetical site are generated from lognormal distributions having σ=0.6, but different median values.
Figure A3.6 Illustration of Steps 4-6 of the cluster station distribution fitting procedure. The scaled data are
combined to make a single data set. The plot shows the data in their new rank-ordered plotting positions. A
Figure A3.7 Illustration of Step 7 of the cluster station distribution fitting procedure for the case where the
site of interest is Site 4. The cluster-fit distribution is scaled so that its 20-year load matches the 20-year load
that is determined for Site 4 by a site-specific tail-fit distribution.
A3.3.1. Accounting for Systematic Biases in the Distributions that are Fitted to the
Clustered Data Sets
Sources of Bias in the Distributions that are Fitted to the Clustered Data Sets
In scaling the data from several snow sites to create a clustered data set, a systematic bias is
introduced. The bias is a result of data sets with large rare loads tending to be scaled down,
because their calculated 20-year loads tend to be higher than those of sites that have not
experienced large rare loads; this leads to a systematic reduction of large rare loads in the
clustered data sets. This section explains, by example, the origin of that bias and is followed by
an explanation of how it is corrected.
Let us consider the data shown in Figure A3.8. The data represent two hypothetical sites, each
having the same parent distribution, i.e. following the same lognormal distribution with the same
mean and standard deviations, but with unique sets of random data representing their historical
records. In their 50 years of record, Site 1 has not experienced any significantly rare loads, but
Site 2 has. The largest loads at Sites 1 and 2 are 13.3 psf and 21 psf, respectively, which
correspond to mean recurrence intervals of 29 years and 199 years, according to the theoretical
parent distribution. As a result, the distributions that are fit to the two site’s data predict 20-year
loads of 11.3 psf and 14.0 psf, in comparison to the theoretical 20-year load of 12 psf.
The data from Sites 1 and 2 are combined to make a clustered data set, according to the clustered
station distribution fitting procedure described in Section A3.3. Each data set is scaled so that its
20-year load is equal to the average of the two (12.7 psf); the necessary scale factors for Sites 1
and 2 are 1.12 and 0.9, respectively. The top 10 percent of the clustered, scaled data set is shown
with the solid symbols in Figure A3.9. Accompanying it on the same figure is the same subset of
the data, but with no scaling.
Comparing the two distributions in Figure A3.9 shows that scaling the data before combining it
tends to reduce the logarithmic standard deviation (i.e. the shape parameter) of the distribution
that that is fitted to it. That is because rare loads (e.g. the largest load in Site 2 of the example)
tend to raise the 20-year load that is computed at a given site, thus reducing the scale factor
applied to sites with those data, and diminishing their impact on the distribution tail. In this
example, the unscaled combined data set has a logarithmic standard deviation of 0.6, which is
equal to that of the parent distribution. However, the scaled combined data set has logarithmic
standard deviation of 0.52, which is an underestimation of the true logarithmic standard
deviation. For groups of sites in which the shape and scale of the distribution are expected to be
the same, this problem could be circumvented by combining their data without performing any
scaling. However, with the exception of possibly the eastern plains, the groups of snow sites that
are formed are expected to vary in scale, so scaling must occur before combining them to make
an enlarged station.
Equation A3.1 is applicable for groups of snow sites where the parent distribution is expected to
be Lognormal. Equation A3.2 is applicable for groups of snow sites where the parent distribution
is expected to be Normal or Gamma.
Selection of either Equation A3.1 or A3.1 requires knowledge of the parent distribution family.
The likely parent distribution for a given group of stations is strongly related to the shape of a
lognormal distribution that is tail-fitted to their combined (scaled) data. Groups of snow sites
with larger logarithmic standard deviation terms are often fit better by more heavy tailed
distributions (i.e. Lognormal and sometimes even Loggamma). Based on sensitivity studies
conducted by the SEAC Snow Load Committee, groups of sites with uncorrected logarithmic
standard deviations greater than 0.6 are assumed to have parent distributions that are Lognormal,
so they are corrected with Equation A3.1. Those with logarithmic standard deviations less than
0.3 are assumed to have parent distributions that are Normal or Gamma, so they are corrected
with Equation A3.2. If the uncorrected logarithmic standard deviation is between 0.3 and 0.6,
then the underlying parent distribution is assumed to be thinner-tailed than lognormal, but
thicker-tailed than Gamma and Normal; in such cases the correction is computed by a weighted
The sufficiency of the Equations A3.1 and A3.2 for correcting distribution shapes (i.e.
logarithmic standard deviation, σ) for the clustered station distribution fitting method are tested,
starting with Equation A3.1. Recall that Equation A3.1 is intended to correct the distribution
shape that is determined from a clustered data set when the parent distributions of the individual
stations are assumed to be Lognormal. Therefore, it is tested by applying the correction to data
that is randomly generated from a Lognormal distribution. One-thousand sets of data are
generated from a lognormal distribution, each set containing 50 data points to represent a 50-year
historical record. Then, the clustered station distribution fitting approach is applied to the
simulated data to compute a distribution shape. The shape of the fitted distribution is compared
to the shape of the true underlying (parent) distribution by comparing their logarithmic standard
deviations. The results of several of these tests are shown in Figure A3.10, demonstrating that
Equation A3.1 is effective for correcting bias in the distribution shape that is introduced by the
clustered station distribution fitting method.
Testing Equation A3.2 for correcting the clustered station distribution fitting approach when it is
used to model Gamma or Normal distributed data is less straightforward, because there is no
direct comparison of parameters. Therefore, the correction for Normal and Gamma distributed
data is tested by comparing reliability analysis results from distributions fitted to randomly
generated historical records to reliability analysis results for the theoretical distributions from
which the random historical records were generated. As with the previous tests, 1,000 data sets,
each containing 50 data points, are generated from a theoretical distribution; then, a lognormal
distribution is fitted to the clustered data set by the clustered station distribution fitting method.
Reliability analyses performed with the theoretical distributions and with the fitted distributions
are compared in Figure A3.11 through Figure A3.14. These comparisons show that the
correction equation (Equation A3.2) corrects the shape of the distribution tail well enough to
compute reliability-consistent design ground snow loads (i.e. the design ground snow load that
would result in a reliability index of 3.0) that are nearly indistinguishable from those that are
computed from the true theoretical parent distribution. These reliability results demonstrate that
the corrected distributions approximate well the theoretical distributions over the portion of the
distribution upper tails that is critical for the reliability assessment.
Figure A3.11 Reliability analysis results for a corrected Lognormal distribution that is fitted to data that are
generated from a Normal distribution with mean 100 psf and COV 0.3. Annual maximum ground snow load
distributions of this shape and scale are common at altitudes above 8,000 ft. in Colorado.
Figure A3.13 Reliability analysis results for a corrected Lognormal distribution that is fit to data that are
generated from a Gamma distribution with parameters k=6 and theta=7 (i.e. mean=42 psf and COV=0.4).
Annual maximum ground snow load distributions of this shape and scale are common at altitudes between
6,500 ft. and 8,500 ft. in Colorado.
For the purpose of examining annual maximum snow load distribution properties on a regional
basis, the COV is taken as a proxy for the distribution shape. Distributions with heavy upper tails
tend to have larger COV, as compared to distributions with light upper tails. Another proxy for
distribution shape, skewness, is not discussed, but additional studies by the committee show that
trends in skewness and COV are very similar, and that skewness and COV are strongly
correlated for Colorado snow sites (correlation coefficient = 0.8).
Figure A3.15 Map of sites by topographic region assignment. The base map has blue, green, and brown
altitude contours at 5,500 t., 8,500 ft., and 10,500 ft., respectively. Eastern slope sites are red triangles,
western slope sites are blue Squares, northern Rockies sites are black circles, east-central Rockies sites are
green diamonds, southwest Rockies sites are green squares, and San Luis Valley sites are green circles. The
latter three, represented by green markers, were eventually combined into one topographic region.
Analysis of the historical annual maximum snow loads in these regions shows that the proxy for
distribution shape, COV, is correlated with altitude and topographic region. For example, Figure
A3.16 shows the trends in COV with altitude for sites within the western slope and eastern slope
topographic regions. COV decreases with altitude for both regions, but the trend is somewhat
different for each of them. There is little distinction in the trends of COV with altitude among
the east central Rocky Mountains, southwest Rocky Mountains, and San Luis Valley sites (i.e. all
of the snow sites plotted in green in Figure A3.15) so these are combined into one topographic
region for analysis. The remaining three topographic regions are considered separately, so a total
of four topographic regions are used.
Cluster Analysis
Clusters of snow sites for performing the clustered station distribution fitting method at each site
are formed by selecting all snow sites that are: (a) within the same topographic region as the site
of interest and (b) within 1000 ft. altitude of the site of interest. If a cluster contains less than 20
snow sites, the altitude criterion is relaxed until a minimum of 20 snow sites are included. This
approach implies that each site is grouped with its 20 (or more) most similar sites on the basis of
region and altitude. This cluster is used in determining the shape of the tail for the site of interest,
as described in Section A3.2.2.
The method computes 20-year loads at each site from a Lognormal distribution that is fit to the
upper 33 percent of the site data. The shape of the distribution at each site is determined by
combining data from a minimum of 20 stations to make an enlarged data set and fitting a
lognormal distribution to the top 10 percent of its data. This appendix shows that estimating the
Ellingwood, B. (1981). “Wind and snow load statistics for probabilistic design.” Journal of the Structural
Division, 107(7), 1345-1350.
Ellingwood, B., & Redfield, R. (1983). “Ground snow loads for structural design.” Journal of Structural
Engineering, 109(4), 950-964.
SEAC, 2007. Colorado Ground Snow Loads. Prepared by the SEAC Snow Load Committee.
In addition, the large range of mean recurrence intervals of the design ground snow loads raises
the following question: will snow load importance factors (Is) for Risk Category III and IV lead
to uniform increases in structural reliability across all sites in the state of Colorado?
Given the approximations involved in the statistical analysis and especially the mapping, the
SEAC Snow Load Committee believes that the reliability targeted loads are sufficient for
serviceability checks in most structures. For sensitive structures at high altitudes, the rservice
could be used to increase the reliability-targeted load to a 50-year load. If rservice values less than
1.0 are used at lower altitudes, the SEAC Snow Load Committee recommends that the ground
snow load for serviceability not be taken less than 25 psf.
Figure A4.2. Importance factors to achieve a safety index of b=3.5 at Colorado snow sites.
The relationship between altitude and Is for Risk Category IV buildings is approximated by the
empirical equation,
The performance of the empirical equation for computing Is for Risk Category IV buildings
(Equation A4.2) is compared to the performance of Risk Category IV buildings designed for a
constant snow importance factor of 1.2, as in ASCE 7. Calculations of the safety index β at each
snow site for the design load factored by Is are displayed in Figure A4.3 and Figure A4.4. By
visual inspection, a constant Is of 1.2 is conservatively biased for sites with altitudes above 8000
ft. and non-conservatively biased for sites with altitudes below 7500 ft. in the state of Colorado
(Figure A4.3). However, when Is is computed with Equation A4.2, the biases are removed
(Figure A4.4).
Therefore, the SEAC Snow Load Committee recommends that Is be determined by Equation
A4.2 for Risk Category IV buildings in Colorado. For Risk Category III buildings, Is should be
the average of 1.0 and Equation A4.2.
Figure A4.4. Calculations of the safety index β for each snow site, using Is from Equation A4.2.
The raw data come from four types of snow recording stations: first-order National Weather
Service (NWS) stations, CO-OP NWS stations, snow courses, and SNOTEL (short for
SNOwpack TELemetry) stations. Descriptions of each station type are available in Section 2.1.1.
In the raw data summary, first order NWS stations are denoted “First Order,” NWS Co-op
stations are denoted “NWS,” snow courses are denoted “SNOW,” and SNOTEL stations are
denoted “SNTL.”
The assembled snow site data are the result of combining snow stations that are either at the
same location or very near each other. For example, many snow courses have been replaced by
SNOTEL stations at the same location; these are combined to make one snow site. The
procedure for combining snow stations to assemble the snow sites is described in Section 2.1.2.
When tabulating the assembled site data, only the station name with the longest data record is
reported (in most cases, the stations from which a snow site is assembled have the same name).
Recorded snow weights are reported as snow water equivalents (SWE), which is the height in
inches of an equivalent (weight) column of water. Each inch of SWE is approximately 5.2 psf.
Table A6.1 Comparison of 2015 design ground snow loads to previous editions
Altitude (ft.)
City/Town
County
Altitude (ft.)
City/Town
County
Collbran Mesa 39.24 -107.96 5980 45 55 22%
Commerce City Adams 39.81 -104.93 5160 35 25 -29%
Conifer Jefferson 39.52 -105.31 8280 100 70 -30%
Cortez Montezuma 37.35 -108.59 6190 30 20 -33% 25 36 19%
Craig Moffat 40.52 -107.55 6200 30 55 83% 35 50 67%
Crawford Delta 38.70 -107.61 6560 45 20 -56%
Creede Mineral 37.85 -106.93 8800 65 55 -15% 65 93 43%
Crested Butte Gunnison 38.87 -106.98 8910 125 100 -20% 100 143 14%
Crestone Saguache 38.00 -105.70 7930 35 30 -14%
Cripple Creek Teller 38.75 -105.18 9490 70 35 -50% 40 57 -18%
De Beque Mesa 39.33 -108.22 4950 30 65 117%
Del Norte Rio Grande 37.68 -106.35 7880 30 20 -33% 20 29 -5%
Denver Denver 39.74 -104.98 5280 35 30 -14% 30 43 22%
Dillon Summit 39.63 -106.04 9110 65 65 0% 50 71 10%
Dinosaur Moffat 40.24 -109.01 5920 35 30 -14%
Dolores Montezuma 37.47 -108.50 6940 55 85 55% 40 57 4%
Dove Creek Dolores 37.77 -108.91 6840 45 50 11% 25 36 -21%
Durango La Plata 37.28 -107.88 6530 55 60 9% 40 57 4%
Eagle Eagle 39.66 -106.83 6600 45 55 22% 40 57 27%
Edwards Eagle 39.64 -106.59 7220 55 100 82%
Elbert Elbert 39.22 -104.54 6720 55 20 -64%
Empire Clear Creek 39.76 -105.68 8620 60 80 33%
Estes Park Larimer 40.43 -105.52 7520 65 45 -31% 40 57 -12%
Evergreen Jefferson 39.63 -105.32 7050 70 45 -36% 40 57 -18%
Fairplay Park 39.22 -106.00 9950 55 95 73% 50 71 30%
Fort Collins Larimer 40.59 -105.08 5000 35 20 -43% 30 43 22%
Fort Garland Costilla 37.43 -105.43 7940 25 40 60%
Fort Morgan Morgan 40.25 -103.80 4330 30 20 -33% 25 36 19%
Fountain El Paso 38.68 -104.70 5550 35 20 -43%
Franktown Douglas 39.39 -104.75 6160 45 25 -44%
Fraser Grand 39.94 -105.82 8580 75 105 40% 65 93 24%
Frisco Summit 39.57 -106.10 9080 65 100 54%
Georgetown Clear Creek 39.71 -105.70 8520 60 65 8% 75 107 79%
Altitude (ft.)
City/Town
County
Glenwood
Garfield 39.55 -107.32 5760 40 30 -25% 40 57 43%
Springs
Granby Grand 40.09 -105.94 7980 55 65 18%
Grand Junction Mesa 39.06 -108.55 4590 25 20 -20% 20 29 14%
Grand Lake Grand 40.25 -105.82 8390 70 80 14% 65 93 33%
Greeley Weld 40.42 -104.71 4680 30 30 0% 30 43 43%
Green Mountain
Teller 38.93 -105.02 7760 70 65 -7%
Falls
Gunnison Gunnison 38.55 -106.93 7700 45 40 -11% 50 71 59%
Gypsum Eagle 39.65 -106.95 6310 40 45 13%
Hartsel Park 39.02 -105.80 8870 35 20 -43% 30 43 22%
Hayden Routt 40.50 -107.26 6350 55 70 27% 50 71 30%
Highlands Ranch Douglas 39.54 -104.97 5900 45 30 -33%
Hot Sulphur
Grand 40.07 -106.10 7730 45 90 100%
Springs
Howard Fremont 38.45 -105.84 6720 40 25 -38%
Idaho Springs Clear Creek 39.74 -105.51 7530 60 55 -8% 50 71 19%
Ignacio La Plata 37.12 -107.63 6450 45 30 -33% 40 57 27%
Kremmling Grand 40.06 -106.39 7310 40 75 88% 50 71 79%
La Junta Otero 37.99 -103.54 4080 30 20 -33% 25 36 19%
La Veta Huerfano 37.51 -105.01 7040 50 90 80% 50 71 43%
Lake City Hinsdale 38.03 -107.32 8660 55 70 27% 65 93 69%
Lakewood Jefferson 39.70 -105.08 5520 40 35 -13%
Lamar Prowers 38.09 -102.62 3620 30 30 0% 20 29 -5%
Larkspur Douglas 39.23 -104.89 6730 55 35 -36%
Leadville Lake 39.25 -106.29 10160 75 115 53% 80 114 52%
Littleton Arapahoe 39.61 -105.02 5350 40 40 0%
Livermore Larimer 40.79 -105.22 5900 45 35 -22%
Longmont Boulder 40.17 -105.10 4980 35 20 -43%
Loveland Larimer 40.40 -105.07 4980 35 20 -43%
Lyons Boulder 40.22 -105.27 5370 40 20 -50% 30 43 7%
Mancos Montezuma 37.34 -108.29 7030 45 30 -33% 50 71 59%
Manitou Springs El Paso 38.86 -104.92 6360 50 100 100%
Marble Gunnison 39.07 -107.19 7990 90 155 72%
Meeker Rio Blanco 40.04 -107.91 6240 40 20 -50% 30 43 7%
Altitude (ft.)
City/Town
County
Mesa Mesa 39.17 -108.14 5640 35 120 243%
Mesa Verde Montezuma 37.15 -108.52 6770 50 60 20% 50 71 43%
Minturn Eagle 39.59 -106.43 7860 70 170 143%
Monte Vista Rio Grande 37.58 -106.15 7660 25 20 -20% 20 29 14%
Montezuma Summit 39.58 -105.87 10310 105 80 -24%
Montrose Montrose 38.48 -107.88 5810 25 30 20% 25 36 43%
Monument El Paso 39.09 -104.87 6980 60 45 -25%
Nederland Boulder 39.96 -105.51 8230 70 40 -43% 50 71 2%
Newcastle Garfield 39.57 -107.54 5600 35 40 14%
Norwood San Miguel 38.13 -108.29 7010 35 25 -29% 30 43 22%
Nucla Montrose 38.27 -108.55 5790 25 75 200%
Oak Creek Routt 40.28 -106.96 7430 70 85 21%
Ophir San Miguel 37.86 -107.83 9700 125 170 36%
Ouray Ouray 38.02 -107.67 7790 65 50 -23% 50 71 10%
Pagosa Springs Archuleta 37.27 -107.01 7130 75 100 33% 65 93 24%
Palmer Lake El Paso 39.11 -104.91 7300 65 45 -31% 40 57 -12%
Paonia Delta 38.87 -107.59 5680 35 20 -43% 25 36 2%
Parker Douglas 39.52 -104.76 5870 45 30 -33%
Pitkin Gunnison 38.61 -106.52 9220 105 105 0%
Poncha Springs Chaffee 38.51 -106.08 7470 45 70 56%
Pueblo Pueblo 38.25 -104.61 4690 30 20 -33% 25 36 19%
Rangely Rio Blanco 40.09 -108.80 5230 35 20 -43% 20 29 -18%
Red Cliff Eagle 39.65 -106.37 8750 85 110 29%
Rico Dolores 37.69 -108.03 8830 100 145 45%
Ridgway Ouray 38.15 -107.76 7050 40 20 -50%
Rifle Garfield 39.53 -107.78 5350 40 20 -50% 30 43 7%
Rye Pueblo 37.92 -104.93 6800 60 35 -42%
Salida Chaffee 38.53 -106.00 7080 45 50 11% 40 57 27%
San Luis Costilla 37.20 -105.42 7980 30 20 -33%
Sawpit San Miguel 37.99 -108.00 7590 55 85 55%
Sedalia Douglas 39.44 -104.96 5840 50 30 -40%
Silt Garfield 39.55 -107.66 5460 35 30 -14%
Silver Cliff Custer 38.14 -105.45 7990 55 35 -36%
Silver Plume Clear Creek 39.70 -105.73 9100 70 65 -7%
Altitude (ft.)
City/Town
County
Silverthorne Summit 39.63 -106.07 8760 65 70 8%
Silverton San Juan 37.81 -107.66 9310 105 140 33% 90 129 22%
Snowmass
Pitkin 39.21 -106.94 8210 90 165 83%
Village
South Fork Rio Grande 37.67 -106.64 8210 70 55 -21%
Steamboat
Routt 40.48 -106.83 6730 85 100 18% 75 107 26%
Springs
Sterling Logan 40.63 -103.21 3940 30 20 -33% 20 29 -5%
Telluride San Miguel 37.94 -107.81 8790 75 100 33% 75 107 43%
Thornton Adams 39.87 -104.97 5350 40 25 -38%
Trinidad Las Animas 37.17 -104.50 6030 45 35 -22% 40 57 27%
Victor Teller 38.71 -105.14 9710 80 40 -50%
Walden Jackson 40.73 -106.28 8100 45 50 11% 50 71 59%
Walsenburg Huerfano 37.62 -104.78 6170 45 25 -44% 35 50 11%
Ward Boulder 40.07 -105.51 9150 75 75 0%
Westcliffe Custer 38.13 -105.47 7870 50 35 -30% 40 57 14%
Westminster Adams 39.84 -105.04 5380 40 25 -38%
Winter Park Grand 39.89 -105.76 9050 100 140 40% 100 143 43%
Woodland Park Teller 38.99 -105.06 8480 85 50 -41%
Yampa Routt 40.15 -106.91 7880 60 50 -17% 50 71 19%