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See Also Illusion of Control (Ch. 17) Coincidence (Ch. 24) False Causality (Ch. 37)

This document discusses the human tendency towards pattern recognition and the influence of social proof. It provides three examples: 1) A friend who believed he discovered a pattern in financial data that did not actually exist. 2) Londoners during WWII who thought they saw a pattern in bomb impact sites but it was actually random. 3) Psychological experiments that show people conform to group answers even if they conflict with obvious truths due to social proof. The document cautions against overestimating patterns from chance and being influenced by what others think rather than independent evaluation of the facts.

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48 views2 pages

See Also Illusion of Control (Ch. 17) Coincidence (Ch. 24) False Causality (Ch. 37)

This document discusses the human tendency towards pattern recognition and the influence of social proof. It provides three examples: 1) A friend who believed he discovered a pattern in financial data that did not actually exist. 2) Londoners during WWII who thought they saw a pattern in bomb impact sites but it was actually random. 3) Psychological experiments that show people conform to group answers even if they conflict with obvious truths due to social proof. The document cautions against overestimating patterns from chance and being influenced by what others think rather than independent evaluation of the facts.

Uploaded by

CITRIX
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Grinning ear to ear, a friend told me that he had discovered a pattern in the sea of

data: ‘If you multiply the percentage change of the Dow Jones by the percentage
change of the oil price, you get the move of the gold price in two days’ time.’ In
other words, if share prices and oil climb or fall in unison, gold will rise the day
after tomorrow. His theory worked well for a few weeks, until he began to
speculate with ever-larger sums and eventually squandered his savings. He had
sensed a pattern where none existed.

oxxxoxxxoxxoooxooxxoo. Is this sequence random or planned? Psychology


professor Thomas Gilovich interviewed hundreds of people for an answer. Most
did not want to believe the sequence was arbitrary. They figured some law must
govern the order of the letters. Wrong, explained Gilovich, and pointed to some
dice: it is quite possible to roll the same number four times in a row, which
mystifies many people. Apparently we have trouble accepting that such events
can take place by chance.
During WWII, the Germans bombed London. Among other ammunition, they
used V1 rockets, a kind of self-navigating drone. With each attack, the impact
sites were carefully plotted on a map, terrifying Londoners: they thought they had
discovered a pattern, and developed theories about which parts of the city were
the safest. However, after the war, statistical analysis confirmed that the
distribution was totally random. Today it’s clear why: the V1’s navigation system
was extremely inaccurate.

In conclusion: when it comes to pattern recognition, we are oversensitive.


Regain your scepticism. If you think you have discovered a pattern, first consider
it pure chance. If it seems too good to be true, find a mathematician and have the
data tested statistically. And if the crispy parts of your pancake start to look a lot
like Jesus’ face, ask yourself: if he really wants to reveal himself, why doesn’t he
do it in Times Square or on CNN?
See also Illusion of Control (ch. 17); Coincidence (ch. 24); False Causality (ch. 37)
4
IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL
FOOLISH
Social Proof

You are on your way to a concert. At an intersection, you encounter a group of


people, all staring at the sky. Without even thinking about it, you peer upwards
too. Why? Social proof. In the middle of the concert, when the soloist is displaying
absolute mastery, someone begins to clap and suddenly the whole room joins in.
You do, too. Why? Social proof. After the concert you go to the coat check to pick
up your coat. You watch how the people in front of you place a coin on a plate,
even though, officially, the service is included in the ticket price. What do you do?
You probably leave a tip as well.

Social proof, sometimes roughly termed the herd instinct, dictates that
individuals feel they are behaving correctly when they act the same as other
people. In other words, the more people who follow a certain idea, the better
(truer) we deem the idea to be. And the more people who display a certain
behaviour the more appropriate this behaviour is judged to be by others. This is,
of course, absurd.

Social proof is the evil behind bubbles and stock market panic. It exists in
fashion, management techniques, hobbies, religion and diets. It can paralyse
whole cultures, such as when sects commit collective suicide.

A simple experiment carried out in the 1950s by legendary psychologist


Solomon Asch shows how peer pressure can warp common sense. A subject is
shown a line drawn on paper, and next to it three lines – numbered 1, 2 and 3 –
one shorter, one longer and one of the same length as the original one. He or she
must indicate which of the three lines corresponds to the original one. If the
person is alone in the room, he gives correct answers – unsurprising, because
the task is really quite simple. Now five other people enter the room; they are all
actors, which the subject does not know. One after another, they give wrong
answers, saying ‘number 1’, although it’s very clear that number 3 is the correct
answer. Then it is the subject’s turn again. In one third of cases, he will answer
incorrectly to match the other people’s responses.

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