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Types Probability

This document discusses different types of probability, including subjective and mathematical probability. It provides examples and explanations of: - Subjective probability, which is based on personal judgment rather than calculations - Mathematical probability, which is a ratio based on possible outcomes of an experiment - Single event probability, complementary events, mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events, and dependent and independent events Key concepts covered include basic probability calculations and distinguishing between different probability terms and situations.

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431 views

Types Probability

This document discusses different types of probability, including subjective and mathematical probability. It provides examples and explanations of: - Subjective probability, which is based on personal judgment rather than calculations - Mathematical probability, which is a ratio based on possible outcomes of an experiment - Single event probability, complementary events, mutually exclusive and non-mutually exclusive events, and dependent and independent events Key concepts covered include basic probability calculations and distinguishing between different probability terms and situations.

Uploaded by

Live Love
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

When an assertion refers to testing


of doubt or confidence with regard
to future outcome, such assertion
is subjective/ personalistic type of
probability
Subjective probability is a type of probability
derived from an individual's personal judgment
or own experience about whether a specific
outcome is likely to occur.
• It contains no formal • Subjective probabilities
calculations and only differ from person to
reflects the subject's person and contain a
opinions and past high degree of
experience rather than on personal bias.
data or computation.
Subjective Probability
Examples:
 You think you have an 80% chance of your best
friend calling you today, because her car broke
down yesterday and she'll probably need a ride.

 A "gut instinct" when making a trade.


MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY

When an assertion with regard to


future outcomes is based on the
ratio of the number of all possible
outcomes in an event (n) to the
number of all possible outcomes in
an experiment (N) probability.
Statistical Probability

Examples:
 What is the probability of getting a head when
you flip a die?
 What is the probability of getting a 5 when you roll
a die?
 What is the probability of getting a head and a tail
in a toss of two dice?
 What is the probability of getting a hand of five
cards from a deck of 52 cards?
MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY

In symbol,

𝑛 𝑛(𝐴)
P(A) = ; = ; 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
𝑁 𝑛(𝑆)
PROBABILITY of Single Events
1. A visitor will arrive next week ,
what is the probability that he
will arrive on a Monday? 1/7
2. What is the probability of
guessing a strangers’ birthday
correctly? 1/365
PROBABILITY of Single Events
3. A number is chosen from integers 1
through 15. find the probability of
choosing
a. multiple of 3. 5/15 or I/3
b. two digit numbers. 6/5 or 2/5
c. number greater than 5 but less
than 11. 5/15 or I/3
PROBABILITY of Single Events
4. A box contains 3 red marbles, 2
green marbles and 3 yellow
marbles. What is the probability of
obtaining
a. a green marble. 2/8 or I/4
b. a green or red marble. 5/8
c. not a red marble. 5/8
PROBABILITY of Single Events
5. In a deck of 52 cards, what is the
probability of drawing
a. an ace?
b. a red royal card?
c. a numbered card?
d. a Queen of Hearts?
e. a Queen or King?
f. not a diamond?
PROBABILITY of Single Events

a. 6. In a multiple choice type of


test consisting of 5 options, what
is the probability of guessing
the correct answer in a single
item?
PROBABILITY of Single Events
7. Two fair dice, one red, the other white are rolled.
Find the probability that
a. the sum of the numbers showing will be 9
b. the sum of the numbers showing will be less than 4
c. the red die shows a factor of 6 and the white die shows
multiple of 3
d. the number on exactly one of the dice is a perfect
square
e. the number on at least one of the dice is an even
number
f. the two numbers showing are relatively prime.
PROBABILITY of Single Events
8. A three digit number with no digit repeated is made
from the digits 5, 6, 7, 8. if you are asked to choose a
number, what is the probability that the number is
a. odd
b. even
c. a multiple of 5
d. a number greater than 750.
PROBABILITY of Single Events
9. A committee of 2 is selected from a group
consisting of five people, Juan, Dick, Mary, Paul and
Jane. What is the probability that

a. both members are male

b. the committee consists of a male or a female


PROBABILITY of Single Events
10. Among 100 new cars delivered to the dealer, 75 have power
windows, 85 have dual air bags, 80 have ABS brakes, 65 have
power windows and dual air bags, 60 have power windows and
ABS brakes, 70 have dual air bags and ABS brakes and 55 have
all three. Compute the probability that a car selected at
random has the following equipment:
a. only dual air bags
b. at least two of the three options
c. exactly two of the three options
d. have power window but no ABS brakes
e. either have dual air bags or power windows but have no ABS brakes
f. have both dual air bags and ABS brakes but have no power window
g. no ABS brakes nor dual air bags
PROBABILITY of COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

𝒏(𝒔) 𝒏(𝑨) 𝒏(𝑨′)


= +
𝒏(𝒔) 𝒏(𝒔) 𝒏(𝒔)
S
A P(S)= P(A) + P(A’)
A’
1 = P(A) + P(A’)
1 - P(A) = P(A’)
P(A’) = 1 - P(A)
PROBABILITY of COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

1. A number is chosen from integers 1 through 15. Find


the probability of NOT choosing a number less than 10.

2. In a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability of NOT


drawing a diamond?

3.Two fair dice, one red, the other white are rolled. Find
the probability of NOT obtaining the same faces.
PROBABILITY of COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

4. If the probability of passing a test is 0.75, what is the


probability of NOT passing the test?

5. Nina has two kids. What is the probability that the two
kids are NOT of the same gender?
PROBABILITY of MUTUALLY/NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS “OR”
Definition: If two events do not have points/elements in common,
then the two events are mutually exclusive events.

A B

Definition: If the two events do have points/elements in common,


then the two events are not mutually exclusive events.

A AB B
PROBABILITY of MUTUALLY/NOT MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS “OR”

Identify whether the following are mutually or not


mutually exclusive events:
Experiment: tossing a die
1. Event of obtaining an odd or an even number
2. Event of obtaining a “3” or a “2”
3. Event of obtaining a number greater than 4 or an odd
number
4. Event of obtaining an odd number or a multiple of 3
PROBABILITY of MUTUALLY/NOT MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS “OR”

Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events


P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)

Probability of NOT Mutually Exclusive Events


P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A∩B)
1. In drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards,
what is the probability of drawing:

a. A spade or a red card

b. A queen of hearts or a king

c. An ace or a black card

d. A diamond or a numbered card


2. In a bag of 4 blue balls, 5 red balls, 2 green
balls and 3 white balls, what is the probability of
picking:

a. A white or a red ball

b. Not a white nor a green ball

c. A white or a blue ball

d. Not a red ball


3. Every two digit numbers formed on the digits 1
though 5 (without repetition of the digits) were written
on paper slips. If one paper is drawn from the set of
papers, what is the probability that it is:
{1,2,3,4,5}
a. An odd number or a multiple of 5

b. An even number or a number greater than 20

c. An odd number or a prime number

d. An odd number or a number that starts with an even


number
DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS “AND”

Independent Events
The outcome of one event does not affect the
outcome of the other event. Sample space is not
altered.

Dependent Events
The outcome of one event affects the outcome of
the other event.
DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS “AND”
sample space is not altered
Identify whether the following events are dependent or independent events:
1. Rolling a die and a blue die
2. Drawing 2 cards in succession in a deck of cards without replacements of
the cards
3. Drawing a red and a blue ball in a box of red, blue, and green balls where
replacement is allowed
4. Choosing a boy from a group of boys and a girl from a group of girls
5. Awarding a first, second and third honors to a set of 10 students
6. Tossing two coins
7. Drawing a card from a complete deck of cards and another card from the
other set of complete cards
8. Tossing a coin, rolling a die
 For you to understand the concepts of
Independent and Dependent events and
its examples, please access the given
website or URL below:

https://www.onlinemathlearning.com/inde
pendent-dependent- events.html
Examples:
1. In two tosses of a die, find the
probability of obtaining

a. a “3” on the first toss and a


prime on the second toss?

b. an even number on the first toss and


at least a 5 on the second toss?
Examples:

c. a “2” or a “5” in the first toss and a


multiple of 3 in the second toss?

d. an odd number or a mulyiple of 5


on the first toss and a “5”on the
second toss?
Examples:

2. A bag contains 4 red balls, 3 blue


balls, and 4 white balls, another bag
contains 6 red balls and 4 white balls,
and a third bag contains 3 white balls
and 2 red balls. One ball is to be drawn
from each bag, what is the probability
that
Examples:
a. all three are red

b. a red is drawn from the first bag and


white balls on the remaining bags.

c. a red or a blue on the first bag, a red ball


on the second and a white on the third
bag.
Examples:

3. In a single deck of cards, three cards


are drawn in succession, what is the
probability that

a. a jack, a king and a queen are


drawn respectively if replacement
is not allowed?
Examples:

b. three red cards if replacement


is allowed
c. three Jacks cards if replacement
is NOT allowed
d. a spade, a diamond and a club if
replacement is NOT allowed
Examples:
4. The probability that a passenger lands
safely in Cagayan de Oro from Manila is
0.95 and the probabilty that he lands
safely in Davao from Cagayan de Oro is
0.98. Find the probability that the passenger

a. lands safely in Cagayan de Oro and Davao


b. lands safely in Cagayan de Oro but not in
Davao
Examples:

5. For the first three items in a TRUE or FALSE


type of test, what is the probability of
guessing the correct answer in all the
three items
Conditional Probability
P(A│B) = P(A∩B)/ P(B)
= n(A∩B)/n (B)

P(A│B) , notation for the probability of B given A.


In the case where events A and B are
independent (where event A has no effect on the
probability of event B), the conditional probability
of event B given event A is simply the probability
of event B, that is P(B). P(A and B) = P(A)P(B).
Examples:
1. Two dice, one red, the other white are
rolled. what is the probability of
a. obtaining a sum of seven given that the
number on each die is less than 5?
b. obtaining the same numbers given that
none of the dice show a prime number?
c. obtaining a sum greater than 9 given that
a 6 occurs on at least one die?
Examples:
2. Two babies were born. what is the
probability that these are two boys
given that at least one is a boy?

3. Three coins are tossed. What is the


probability of obtaing at least two
heads given that the first coin shows a
tail?

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