Chapter 2

Probability
2.1. Sample Space and Relationships among Events
2.2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
2.3. Rules of Probability

After careful study of this chapter, the students will be able to:

1. Understand and describe sample spaces and events for random experiments with graphs, tables,
lists or tree diagrams
2. Interpret probabilities and use the probabilities of outcomes to calculate probabilities of events in
discrete sample spaces
3. Use permutations and combinations to count the number of outcomes in both an event and the
sample space

Statistics is basically concerned of presentation and interpretation of chance outcomes that occur in a planned study or
scientific investigation. Jointly with statistics, probability theory is a branch of mathematics that has been developed to deal
with uncertainty.

Stimulated initially by the mathematician’s desire to analyze gambling games and later by the scientific analysis of mortality
tables within the medical profession, the theory of probability has been developed as a scientific tool dealing with chance.
Consequently, knowledge of how to manipulate probabilities in order to assess risks and make better decisions is important
throughout scientific and engineering disciplines.

2.1. Sample Space and Relationships among Events

Random Experiment
An experiment that can result in different outcomes, even though it is repeated in the same manner every time, is called a
random experiment.

Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample space (S) of the experiment.

Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space, or simply a sample point. If the
sample space has a finite number of elements, we may list the members separated by commas and enclosed in braces. Thus,
the sample spaces S1 and S2, of possible outcomes when a dice is rolled, may be written
S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and S2 = {even, odd}

where 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (elements of S1) correspond to the top face of a dice, while the odd and even (elements of S2)
correspond to whether the number is odd or even.

Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are best described by a statement or rule method. For
example, if the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in the world with a population over 1 million, our
sample space is written
S = {x | x is a city with a population over 1 million},

which reads “S is the set of all x such that x is a city with a population over 1 million.” The vertical bar is read “such that.”
Similarly, if S is the set of all points (x, y) on the boundary or the interior of a circle of radius 5 with center at the origin, we
write the rule
S = {(x, y) | 𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2≤ 25}.

Sample spaces can also be described graphically with tree diagrams. When a sample space can be constructed in several
steps or stages, we can represent each of the n1 ways of completing the first step as a branch of a tree. Each of the ways of
completing the second step can be represented as n2 branches starting from the ends of the original branches, and so forth.

Examples:
1. List the elements of each of the following sample spaces:
(a) the set of integers between 1 and 50 divisible by 8;
(b) the set S = {x | x2 + 4x − 5 = 0};
(c) the set of outcomes when a coin is tossed until a tail or three heads appear;
(d) the set S = {x | x is a continent};

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 (e) the set S = {x | 2x − 4 ≥ 0 and x < 1}.

Answer:
(a) S = {8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48}
(b) 𝑥 2 + 4𝑥 − 5 = (𝑥 + 5)(𝑥 − 1) = 0, the solutions are (𝑥 = −5) and (𝑥 = 1). Therefore, 𝑆 = {−5,1}.
(c) S = {T,HT,HHT,HHH}
(d) S={Africa, Antarctica, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, South America}
(e) Solving for 2𝑥 − 4 ≥ 0, we have 𝑥 ≥ 2. Since, we must also have x < 1, it follows that 𝑆 = 𝜙

2. Four students are selected at random from a chemistry class and classified as male or female. List the elements of the
sample space S1, using the letter M for male and F for female. Define a second sample space S2 where the elements
represent the number of females selected.

Answer:
S1 = {MMMM, MMMF, MMFM, MFMM, FMMM, MMFF, MFMF, MFFM, FMFM, FFMM, FMMF, MFFF, FMFF,
FFMF, FFFM, FFFF};
S2 = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4}

3. An order for an automobile can specify either an automatic or a standard transmission, either with or without air-
conditioning, and any one of the four colors red, blue, black or white. Construct a tree diagram to show the set of possible
orders for this experiment.

Figure 1: Tree diagram for different types of vehicles.

4. An experiment consists of tossing a die and then flipping a coin once if the number on the die is even. If the number
on the die is odd, the coin is flipped twice. Using the notation 4H, for example, to denote the outcome that the die comes
up 4 and then the coin comes up heads, and 3HT to denote the outcome that the die comes up 3 followed by a head and
then a tail on the coin, construct a tree diagram to show the 18 elements of the sample space S.

Figure 2: Tree diagram for 18 possible outcomes.

Events
Any subset E of the sample space of a random experiment is known as an event. That is, an event is a set consisting of
possible outcomes of the experiment. If the outcome of the experiment is contained in E, then we say that E has occurred.

We can also be interested in describing new events from combinations of existing events. Because events are subsets, we
can use basic set operations such as unions, intersections, and complements to form other events of interest. Some of the
basic set operations are summarized below in terms of events:

 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵, is the event containing all the elements that
belong to A or B or both.

 The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵, is the event containing all elements that are
common to A and B.

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  The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of S that are not in A. We denote the
complement of A by the symbol 𝐴’.

Diagrams are often used to portray relationships between sets, and these diagrams are also used to describe relationships
between events. We can use Venn diagrams to represent a sample space and events in a sample space. For example, in
Fig. 3(a) the sample space of the random experiment is represented as the points in the rectangle S. The events A and B are
the subsets of points in the indicated regions. Figure 3(b) illustrates two events with no common outcomes; Figures 3(c) to
3(e) illustrate additional joint events.

Figure 3: Venn diagrams.

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙, that is, if A and B have no elements in common.

Examples:

1. An experiment involves tossing a pair of dice, one green and one red, and recording the numbers that come up. If x
equals the outcome on the green die and y the outcome on the red die,
(a) list the elements corresponding to the event A that the sum is greater than 8;
(b) list the elements corresponding to the event B that a 2 occurs on either die;
(c) list the elements corresponding to the event C that a number greater than 4 comes up on the green die.

Answer:
(a) A= {(3,6), (4,5), (4,6), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
(b) B= {(1,2), (2,2), (3,2), (4,2), (5,2), (6,2), (2,1), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)}
(c) C= {(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

2. The résumés of two male applicants for a college teaching position in chemistry are placed in the same file as the
résumés of two female applicants. Two positions become available, and the first, at the rank of assistant professor, is
filled by selecting one of the four applicants at random. The second position, at the rank of instructor, is then filled by
selecting at random one of the remaining three applicants. Using the notation M2F1, for example, to denote the simple
event that the first position is filled by the second male applicant and the second position is then filled by the first female
applicant,
(a) list the elements of a sample space S;
(b) list the elements of S corresponding to event A that the position of assistant professor is filled by a male applicant;
(c) list the elements of S corresponding to event B that exactly one of the two positions is filled by a male applicant;
(d) list the elements of S corresponding to event C that neither position is filled by a male applicant;
(e) list the elements of S corresponding to the event 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵;
(f) list the elements of S corresponding to the event 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶;
(g) construct a Venn diagram to illustrate the intersections and unions of the events A, B, and C.

Answer:
(a) S= {M1M2, M1F1, M1F2, M2M1, M2F1, M2F2, F1M1, F1M2, F1F2, F2M1, F2M2, F2F1}
(b) A = {M1M2, M1F1, M1F2, M2M1, M2F1,M2F2}

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 (c) B = {M1F1, M1F2, M2F1, M2F2, F1M1, F1M2, F2M1, F2M2}
(d) C = {F1F2, F2F1}
(e) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {M1F1, M1F2, M2F1, M2F2}
(f) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶 = {M1M2, M1F1, M1F2, M2M1, M2F1, M2F2, F1F2, F2F1}
(g) Venn diagram

Figure 4: Venn diagram for the intersections and unions of the events A, B, and C

3. Consider the sample space S = {copper, sodium, nitrogen, potassium, uranium, oxygen, zinc} and the events
A = {copper, sodium, zinc},
B = {sodium, nitrogen, potassium},
C = {oxygen}.
List the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
(a) 𝐴’;
(b) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐶;
(c) (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵’) ∪ 𝐶’;
(d) 𝐵’ ∩ 𝐶’;
(e) 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶;
(f) (𝐴’ ∪ 𝐵’) ∩ (𝐴’ ∩ 𝐶).

Answer:
(a) {nitrogen, potassium, uranium, oxygen}
(b) {copper, sodium, zinc, oxygen}
(c) {copper, sodium, nitrogen, potassium, uranium, zinc}
(d) {copper, uranium, zinc}
(e) 𝜙
(f) {oxygen}

4. Let A, B, and C be events relative to the sample space S. Using Venn diagrams, shade the areas representing the
following events:
(a) (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ ;
(b) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)’ ;
(c) (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) ∪ 𝐵.

Answer:
From the Venn diagram shown in Figure 5,
(a) (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ contains the regions of 1,2, and 4.
(b) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)’ contains region 1.

Figure 5: Venn diagram for (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ and (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)’

From the Venn diagram shown in Figure 6,

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Figure 6: Venn diagram for (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) ∪ 𝐵