GATE1.

Which one of the following forecasting techniques is not suited for making
forecasts for planning production schedules in the shortrange? [GATE-1998]

(a) Moving average (b) Exponential moving average

(c) Regression analysis (d) Delphi

GATE-2. A moving average system is used for forecasting weekly demand. F1(t) and
F2(t) are sequences of forecasts with parameters m1 and m2, respectively, where m1
and m2 (m1 > m2) denote the numbers of weeks over which the moving averages are
taken. The actual demand shows a step increase from d1 to d2 at a certain time.
Subsequently, [GATE-2008]
(a) Neither F1(t) nor F2(t) will catch up with the value d2
(b) Both sequences F1(t) and F2(t) will reach d2 in the same period
(c) F1(t) will attain the value d2 before F2(t)
(d) F2(t) will attain the value d2 before F1(t)

GATE-3. When using a simple moving average to forecast demand, one would
[GATE-2001]

(a) Give equal weight to all demand data

(b) Assign more weight to the recent demand data
(c) Include new demand data in the average without discarding the earlierdata
(d) Include new demand data in the average after discarding some of the earlier demand
data

GATE-4. Which of the following forecasting methods takes a fraction of forecast error
into account for the next period forecast? [GATE-2009]

(a) Simple average method

(b) Moving average method
(c) Weighted moving average method
(d) Exponential smoothening method

GATE-5. The demand and forecast for February are 12000 and 10275,respectively.
Using single exponential smoothening method (smoothening coefficient = 0.25),
forecast for the month of March is:[GATE-2010]

(a) 431 (b) 9587 (c) 10706 (d) 11000

GATE-6. The sales of a product during the last four years were 860, 880, 870
and 890 units. The forecast for the fourth year was 876 units. If the forecast for the
fifth year, using simple exponential smoothing, is equal to the forecast using a three
period moving average, the value of the exponential smoothing constant a is: [GATE-
2005]

a) 1/7 b) 1/5 c) 2/7 d) 2/5

GATE-7. For a product, the forecast and the actual sales for December 2002 were 25
and 20 respectively. If the exponential smoothing constant (α) is taken as 0.2, then
forecast sales for January, 2003 would be: [GATE-2004]

(a) 21 (b) 23 (c) 24 (d) 27

GATE-8. The sales of cycles in a shop in four consecutive months are given as 70, 68,
82, and 95. Exponentially smoothing average method with a smoothing factor of 0.4
is used in forecasting. The expected number of sales in the next month is:
[GATE-2003]

(a) 59 (b) 72 (c) 86 (d) 136

GATE 9.In a forecasting model, at the end of period 13, the forecasted value for
period 14 is 75. Actual value in the periods 14 to 16 are constant at 100. If the
assumed simple exponential smoothing parameter is 0.5, then the MSE at the end of
period 16 is: [GATE-1997]

(a) 820.31 (b) 273.44 (c) 43.75 (d) 14.58

GATE-10. The most commonly used criteria for measuring forecast error is:
[GATE-1997]

(a) Mean absolute deviation (b) Mean absolute percentage error

(c) Mean standard error (d) Mean square error

GATE-11. In a time series forecasting model, the demand for five time periods was
10, 13, 15, 18 and 22. A linear regression fit resulted in an equation F = 6.9 + 2.9 t
where F is the forecast for period t. The sum of absolute deviations for the five data
is: [GATE-2000]

(a) 2.2 (b) 0.2 (c) –1.2 (d) 24.3

IES-1. Which one of the following is not a purpose of long-term forecasting? [IES
2007]

(a) To plan for the new unit of production

(b) To plan the long-term financial requirement.
(c) To make the proper arrangement for training the personnel.
(d) To decide the purchase programme.

IES-2. Which one of the following is not a technique of Long Range Forecasting? [IES-
2008]
(a) Market Research and Market Survey (b) Delphi
(c) Collective Opinion (d) Correlation and Regression

IES-3. Assertion (A): Time series analysis technique of sales-forecasting can be

applied to only medium and short-range forecasting. Reason (R): Qualitative
information about the market is necessary for long-range forecasting. [IES-2001]

(a) Both A and R are individually true and R is the correct explanation of A
(b) Both A and R are individually true but R is not the correct explanation of A
(c) A is true but R is false
(d) A is false but R is true

IES-4. Which one of the following forecasting techniques is most suitable for making
long range forecasts? [IES-2005]

(a) Time series analysis (b) Regression analysis

(c) Exponential smoothing (d) Market Surveys

IES-5. Which one of the following methods can be used for forecasting when a
demand pattern is consistently increasing or decreasing?

(a) Regression analysis (b) Moving average [IES-2005]

(c) Variance analysis (d) Weighted moving average

IES-6. Which one of the following statements is correct? [IES-2003]

(a) Time series analysis technique of forecasting is used for very long range forecasting
(b) Qualitative techniques are used for long range forecasting and quantitative techniques
for short and medium range forecasting
(c) Coefficient of correlation is calculated in case of time series technique
(d) Market survey and Delphi techniques are used for short range forecasting

IES-7. Given T = Underlying trend, C = Cyclic variations within the trend, S = Seasonal
variation within the trend and R = Residual, remaining or random variation, as per
the time series analysis of sales forecasting, the demand will be a function of: [IES-
1997]

(a) T and C (b) R and S

(c) T, C and S (d) T, C, S and R

IES-8. Which one of the following methods can be used for forecasting the sales
potential of a new product? [IES-1995]

(a) Time series analysis

(b) Jury of executive opinion method
(c) Sales force composite method
(d) Direct survey method

IES-9. Match List-I with List-II and select the correct answer using the codes given
below the lists: [IES-2001]
List-I
A. Decision making under complete certainty
B. Decision making under risk
C. Decision making under complete uncertainly
D. Decision making based on expert opinion
List-II
1. Delphi approach
2. Maximax criterion
3 Transportation mode
4. Decision tree
Codes: A B C D ABCD
(a) 3 4 1 2 (b) 4 3 2 1
(c) 3 4 2 1 (d) 4 3 1 2

IES-10. Assertion (A): Moving average method of forecasting demand gives

an account of the trends in fluctuations and suppresses day-to-day insignificant
fluctuations.
Reason (R): Working out moving averages of the demand data
smoothens the random day-to-day fluctuations and represents only
significant variations. [IES-2009]
(a) Both A and R are true and R is the correct explanation of A
(b) Both A and R are true but R is NOT the correct explanation of A
(c) A is true but R is false
(d) A is false but R is true

IES-11. Which one of the following is a qualitative technique of demand

forecasting? [IES-2006]

(a) Correlation and regression analysis (b) Moving average method

(c) Delphi technique (d) Exponential smoothing

IES-12. Match List-I (Methods) with List-II (Problems) and select the correct
answer using the codes given below the lists: [IES-1998]
List-I List-II
A. Moving average 1. Assembly
B. Line balancing 2. Purchase
C. Economic batch size 3. Forecasting
D. Johnson algorithm 4. Sequencing

Codes: A B C D ABCD
(a) 1 3 2 4 (b) 1 3 4 2
(c) 3 1 4 2 (d) 3 1 2 4
IES-13. Using the exponential smoothing method of forecasting, what will be the
forecast for the fourth week if the actual and forecasted demand for the third week is
480 and 500 respectively and α = 0·2? [IES-2008]

(a) 400 (b) 496 (c) 500 (d) 504

IES-14. The demand for a product in the month of March turned out to be 20 units
against an earlier made forecast of 20 units. The actual demand for April and May
turned to be 25 and 26 units respectively. What will be the forecast for the month of
June, using exponential smoothing method and taking smoothing constant α as 0.2?
[IES-2004]

(a) 20 units (b) 22 units (c) 26 units (d) 28 units

IES-15. A company intends to use exponential smoothing technique for making a

forecast for one of its products. The previous year's forecast has been 78 units and
the actual demand for the corresponding period turned out to be 73 units. If the
value of the smoothening constant α is 0.2, the forecast for the next period will
be: [IES-1999]

(a) 73 units (b) 75 units (c) 77 units (d) 78 units

IES-16. It is given that the actual demand is 59 units, a previous forecast 64 units and
smoothening factor 0.3. What will be the forecast for next period, using exponential
smoothing? [IES-2004]

(a) 36.9 units (b) 57.5 units (c) 60.5 units (d) 62.5 units

IES-17. Consider the following statements: [IES 2007]

Exponential smoothing
1. Is a modification of moving average method
2. Is a weighted average of past observations
3. Assigns the highest weight age to the most recent observation
Which of the statements given above are correct?
(a) 1, 2 and 3 (b) 1 and 2 only
(c) 2 and 3 only (d) 1 and 3 only

IES-18. In a forecasting situation, exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant

α = 0.2 is to be used. If the demand for nth period is 500 and the actual demand for
the corresponding period turned out to be 450, what is the forecast for the (n + 1) th
period? [IES-2009]

(a) 450 (b) 470 (c) 490 (d) 500

IES-19. Consider the following statement relating to forecasting: [IES 2007]

1. The time horizon to forecast depends upon where the product currently lies its life
cycle.
2. Opinion and judgmental forecasting methods sometimes incorporate statistical
analysis.
3. In exponential smoothing, low values of smoothing constant, alpha result in more
smoothing than higher values of alpha. Which of the statements given above are
correct?

(a) 1, 2 and 3 (b) 1 and 2 only

(c) 1 and 3 only (d) 2 and 3 only
IES-20. Which one of the following statements is not correct for the exponential
smoothing method of demand forecasting? [IES-2006]

(a) Demand for the most recent data is given more weightage
(b) This method requires only the current demand and forecast demand
(c) This method assigns weight to all the previous data
(d) This method gives equal weightage to all the periods

IES-21. Match List-I (Activity) with List-II (Technique) and select the correct answer
using the code given below the lists: [IES-2005]
List-I List-II
A. Line Balancing 1. Value analysis
B. Product Development 2. Exponential smoothing
C. Forecasting 3. Control chart
D. Quality Control 4. Selective control
5. Rank position matrix
Codes: ABCD ABCD
(a) 2 1 4 3 (b) 5 3 2 1
(c) 2 3 4 1 (d) 5 1 2 3

IES-22. For a product, the forecast for the month of January was 500 units.
The actual demand turned out to be 450 units. What is the forecast
for the month of February using exponential smoothing method
with a smoothing coefficient = 0.1? [IES-2005]

(a) 455 (b) 495 (c) 500 (d) 545

IES-23. Which of the following is the measure of forecast error? [IES-2009]

(a) Mean absolute deviation (b) Trend value

(c) Moving average (d) Price fluctuation

IAS-1. For sales forecasting, pooling of expert opinions is made use of in

(a) Statistical correlation (b) Delphi technique [IAS-1996]

(c) Moving average method (d) Exponential smoothing
IAS-2. To meet short range changes in demand of a product, which of the following
strategies can be considered? [IAS-2004]

1. Overtime 2. Subcontracting
3. Building up inventory 4. New investments
Select the correct answer from the codes given below:

(a) 1, 2 and 3 (b) 1, 3 and 4

(c) 2 and 3 (d) 1 and 2

Solution

IES-1. Ans. (c)

IES-2. Ans. (d) Correlation and Regression method is used for short and medium range
forecasting.
IES-3. Ans. (b)
IES-4. Ans. (d)
IES-5. Ans. (a)
IES-6. Ans. (b)
IES-7. Ans. (c) Sale forecasting should not be influenced by the random variations in
demand.
IES-8. Ans. (d)
IES-9. Ans. (c)
IES-10. Ans. (a)
IES-11. Ans. (c)
IES-12. Ans. (d)

IAS-1. Ans. (b)

IAS-2. Ans. (b)

Which of the following is not a part of Five M’s?

a. Material
b. Machine
c. Motion
d. Method

(Ans:c)