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Stream Flow, Predictions of 100 Year Floods Due April 17 at 6pm Instructions

The document provides instructions for analyzing stream flow data from two streams, Mercer Creek and Green River, located in Seattle, Washington. Students are asked to analyze four 11-year data sets to estimate the 100-year flood discharge for each period. They should rank the annual peak discharges, calculate recurrence intervals, plot the data, draw best-fit lines extended to 100 years, and answer questions about flood predictions and implications.

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82 views4 pages

Stream Flow, Predictions of 100 Year Floods Due April 17 at 6pm Instructions

The document provides instructions for analyzing stream flow data from two streams, Mercer Creek and Green River, located in Seattle, Washington. Students are asked to analyze four 11-year data sets to estimate the 100-year flood discharge for each period. They should rank the annual peak discharges, calculate recurrence intervals, plot the data, draw best-fit lines extended to 100 years, and answer questions about flood predictions and implications.

Uploaded by

joseph
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Stream Flow, Predictions of 100 Year Floods

Due April 17th at 6pm


Instructions
There are 4 data sets for you to analyze from two different streams
(Mercer Creek and Green River) located in the Seattle, Washington area.
Each data set spans 11 years of record along the stream. Use these data
sets to estimate the likely discharge for a 100-year flood for each 11-
year period. You should follow this procedure:

1. For each data set, rank the peak flood discharge in order of magnitude,
starting with 1 for the largest and ending with 11 for the smallest. Write
these results in the “Rank” column of the table that follows.

2. Use the formula (T= (n+1)/m) to determine the recurrence interval (T)
of each of the 11 floods in each of the two data sets where n is the
number of years of data and m is the rank of the flood. The results
should be recorded in the “Recurrence Interval” column of the table.

3. Make two plots of the Recurrence Intervals and discharge for the 11 floods
in each your data sets, one for the Mercer Creek Data sets and one for the
Green River Data sets. Plot the recurrence intervals on the horizontal axis
(logarithmic axis scale) and the discharge on the vertical axis (linear axis
scale). Choose a vertical scale so that the numbers you plot from your data
fill about one-half of the length of the vertical axis.

4. Using a ruler, draw a best-fit straight line through the data points for
the Data Set 1. The line should be extended all the way to the right-side
edge of the graph to 100 years. Do the same for Data Set 2.
ONCE YOU HAVE COMPLETED THE GRAPHS PLEASE ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS.

1. Based on your data, what is the predicted discharge for a 100-year


flood? To find this information, you must read the value from your
graph where it intersects the 100 yr recurrence interval line.
Data Sets Predicted discharge for a 100-year
flood
Mercer Creek – Data Set 1 (1957-
1967) 185
Mercer Creek – Data Set 2 (1979-
1989) 504
Green River – Data Set 1 (1941-
1951) 870
Green River – Data Set 2 (1976-
1986) 920

2. How do your predictions for the two streams compare to each other? Remember,
you are comparing for the same stream, Data Set 1 and 2. Describe it in words.

The predictions for both streams are different to each other. Both
increase at different rates which means that the flood is not a one-
time occurrence. In other words, the flood will happen again in the
future.

3. Suggest possible human activities in the watershed that could have


caused the differences in predicted floods that result from the two
sets of data for your stream.

If farms begin to be plotted around the watershed it could change the


predictions made. If more water is redirected for irrigation it can
alter the water level in the watershed. Also, if humans begin to use
the watershed to dispose of waste it can alter the water levels and
cause more floods to happen around the watershed. Even by humans
building dams it can cause the water levels in the watershed to change
because it would alter the path of the flowing water.
4. Based on the flood predictions for all four data sets, what does the
contrast in predicted flood discharges imply about the usefulness of
the 100-year flood as a legal designation for these two streams?
For the data sets to be useful they must be updated regularly. Many
different variables can make these data points change, ex. Weather
changes, global warming, human interaction. Because of this one must
frequently update the data sets to make accurate predictions.

5. What information do you need to know if you are about to buy a house
that is located adjacent to, but just outside the 100-year floodplain?

If you were to buy a house near a flood plain, it would be wise to


know what the future predictions of flooding are. Even though the
house is not directly in the flood path, it does not mean that the
water level can’t rise high enough to potentially damage your home.
Another useful thing to know is when the last flood happened and how
much damage it caused to the homes it affected to fully understand
the risks.
Mercer Creek – Data Set 1 Mercer Creek – Data Set 2
Year Peak Flood Rank (1 = Recurrence Year Peak Flood Rank (1 = Recurrence
Discharge greatest) interval Discharge greatest) Interval
(ft**3/sec) (ft**3/sec)
1957 180 9 217 1979 518 5 394
1958 238 2 976 1980 414 7 283
1959 220 4 490 1981 670 2 991
1960 210 5 392 1982 612 4 496
1961 192 7 280 1983 404 8 248
1962 168 10 196 1984 353 9 221
1963 150 11 179 1985 832 1 1986
1964 224 3 655 1986 504 6 331
1965 193 6 328 1987 331 10 199
1966 187 8 246 1988 228 11 153
1967 254 1 1968 1989 664 3 663
Green River – Data Set 1 Green River – Data Set 2
Year Peak Flood Rank (1 = Recurrence Year Peak Flood Rank(1 = Recurrence
Discharge greatest) interval Discharge greatest) Interval
(ft**3/sec) (ft**3/sec)
1941 9310 10 980 1976 4490 10 956
1942 10900 7 682 1977 9920 4 380
1943 12900 4 385 1978 6450 9 870
1944 13600 3 286 1979 8730 7 677
1945 12800 5 485 1980 5200 11 1062
1946 22000 1 .91 1981 9300 5 479
1947 9990 8 781 1982 10800 3 282
1948 6420 11 1070 1983 9140 6 578
1949 9810 9 880 1984 10900 2 182
1950 11800 6 583 1985 7030 8 772
1951 18400 2 190 1986 11800 1 832

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