American International Journal of Business Management (AIJBM)

ISSN- 2379-106X, www.aijbm.com Volume 3, Issue 7 (July 2020), PP 58-63

Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

1
Dr. Preye E. G. Angaye, 2Bingilar Paymaster Frank Phd
1
Head, Business Strategy, Century Group, Ibukun House, Block 105, No 8 Baderinwa Alabi Street,
Lekki Phase 1, Lagos State, Nigeria Tel: +2348068802248,
2
Department of Accounting Faculty of Management Sciences Niger Delta University, Wilberforce Island,
Bayelsa State. Tel: +2348036620418,
*Corresponding Author: 2Bingilar Paymaster Frank Phd

ABSTRACT:- This study examined the effect of capital market development on economic growth in Nigeria
from 2008-2018. The stock market development was proxy by market capitalization rate; interest rate and
inflation rate while economic growth variable considered was GDP. The study utilizes the multiple regression
analysis test in establishing if a positive and significant relationship does exist between stock market
development and economic growth in Nigeria. The empirical result suggests that stock market is positively
related to economic growth in Nigeria but has insignificant effect on economic growth. It is recommended that
Capital market regulators like the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) should be more open to
innovations and be flexible without jeopardizing the interest and protection of investors as well as the efficiency
of the market. Furthermore, government should discourage Nigerian investors' attitude of buy and hold
securities instead of trading in the capital market. Communication and information network should be upgraded.
Lastly, the government should invest more and develop the nation's infrastructure in order to create an enabling
environment for businesses to grow and for productivity and efficiency to thrive which will boost economic
activities.

Keywords: Capital market, Economic growth, Interest Rate, Market capitalization. Inflation rate, Productivity,
Business environment

I. BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

The capital market is a network of financial institutions that interact to mobilize and allocate long term
funds in the economy. According to Al-Faki (2006), The capital market refers to a network of specialized
financial institutions , series of mechanism, processes and infrastructure that in various ways facilitate the
bringing together of suppliers and users of medium and long term capital for investment in any economy. The
sourcing of long term finance through the capital market is essential for sustainable economic growth which is
consistent with external adjustment and rapid economic growth (Iyola, 2004). Osaze and Anal (1999) asserts
that capital market is the corner Stone of any financial system since it provides the fund needed for financing not
only business and other activities but also the programs of government as a whole.
Hailstorm and Smith (1996), and Nwude and Agbo(2013) all strongly emphasized the need for nations
to maintain a dynamic and vibrant stock market in order to guarantee easy and faster investment for all
stakeholders. According to Ezeoha (2009), capital market provides liquidity which contributes to capital
formation, and investment risk reduction by offering opportunities to portfolio diversification. Nyong (1997)
emphasized that financial structure of a firm, that is, the mix of debt and equity financing changes as economies
develop. It moves towards equity financing through the capital market.
Omotor (2011) said that maintaining market liquidity highly rest on stable equity pricing which is
greatly influenced by the purchasing power of both domestic and foreign investors. Price stability helps in
determining whether the economy is stable or not. Inflation creates uncertainty in the economy and make both
domestic and foreign investors unwilling to invest (Mobolaji 2005). Inflation impacts negatively on the savings
ability of citizens and as a result, low savings which leads to a fall in demand for stock and equity as financial
wealth. This decrease in demand causes the price of equities to decline thereby reducing returns, in equity and
stocks (Joyce 2012). Olagunde, Elumilade and Asaolu (2016) mentioned that good investors always look for
investing in an efficient market. In an inefficient market, only few people are able to generate extra ordinary
profit which causes the general public to lose confidence in the market. They also mentioned that if the rate of
interest paid by banks to depositors increased, people switch from the capital market to money market. This
leads to decrease in the demand of shares and in turn decrease the price of share. On the other way, when rate of
interest paid by banks to depositors increase, the lending rate also increased which leads to decrease of
investment in the capital market.

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 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

1.2 Statement of the Problem

According to L.U Okoye (2016) capital market plays an important role in the economic health of most
developed countries while developing economies rely extensively on the operations of the money market.
In recent times, the impact of capital market on economic growth has been a great concern due to the
perceived benefit it provides to the economy. Research has been carried out on this topic using different
variables to determine the relationship between capital market and economic growth and has led to controversies
in the results obtained. Therefore, this leads to further research on effect of capital market development on
economic growth using variables such as market capitalization ; inflation rate ; and interest rate.

1.3 Research Objectives

The primary objective of this study is to analyze the effect of capital market development on economic growth
in Nigeria.
To actualize this, the main objective is broken down into the following specific objectives:
1. To evaluate the effect of market capitalization on gross domestic product.
2. To examine the effect of interest rate on gross domestic product.
3. To determine the effect of Inflation rate on gross domestic product.
1.4 Research Questions
1. How does market capitalization affects gross domestic product in Nigeria?
2. To what extent does interest rate affect gross domestic product in Nigeria?
3. How does Inflation rate affects gross domestic product in Nigeria?
1.5 Research Hypotheses
Ho1: Market capitalization has no significant effect on gross domestic product in Nigeria
Ho2: Interest rate has no significant effect on gross domestic product in Nigeria.
Ho3: Inflation rate has no significant effect on gross domestic product in Nigeria.
1.6 Significance of the Study
The result of this study will provide a working tool for regulatory bodies and policy makers to enable them take
decisions that will contribute to capital market development and economic growth. The outcome of this study
will also be of benefit to investors, financial analysts, stock brokers, etc. It will also add to the available
literature and provide a platform for further research by other researchers.
1.7 Scope and Limitation of the Study
The scope and limitation of this study is to examine the relationship between capital market and economic
growth. This study adopts a time series design and will cover the period between 2008 and 2018, which is 11
years.

II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.1 Theoretical Review
Kumar (1984) stated that the capital market contributes to economic growth through mobilization of
savings, creation of liquidity, risk diversification, improved dissemination and acquisition information and
enhanced incentive for corporate control. Improving the efficiency and effectiveness of these functions through
prompt delivery of their services can spur economic growth.
Obstfeld (1994) also stated that capital market may also have an effect on economic growth activities
through the creation of liquidity. Liquid equity market makes available savings for profitable investment that
requires long term commitment of capital. Illiquid stock market makes it difficult for investors to invest in large,
long term projects. He also said that it can affect economic growth through the function of risk diversification.
When stock markets are internationally integrated, it enables greater economic risk sharing. Because high return
projects are tend to be comparatively risky.
Filler et el (1999) mentioned that the relationship between capital market development and economic
growth varies according at the country's level of economic development with a large impact on less developed
economies.
Bencivenga, Smith and Stan (1996) and Levine (1991) argues that stock market (the ability to trade
equity easily) is important for growth. In the contrary, Conte and Dairat (1988) argue that stock market liquidity
no matter how large is an unimportant source of corporate finance.
According to Spears (1991) and Kiviet (1995), stock market can spur economic growth through
acquisition of information. Levine and Zenlos (1996) noted that larger and more liquid stock market will make
it easier for investors who have gotten information to trade at posted prices. The investors are able to make
money before the information become widespread and prices change.
evine and Zenlos also stated that stock market affect economic growth through savings mobilization.
They opined that large, liquid and efficient stock markets can cause savings mobilization.

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 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

2.2 EMPIRICAL REVIEW

F.T Kolapo and A.O Adaramola (2012) studied the impact of the Nigerian Capital Market on economic
growth from the period of 1990-2010. Using Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as variable for economic growth
and market capitalization, total new issues, value of transactions, and total listed equity and government stocks.
Applying Johansen co-integration and granger casualty tests, the result shows that a long run relationship exist
between capital market and economic growth in Nigeria.
Ologunwa O.P and O.D Sadibo (2016) also examined the effect of capital on economic growth. Market
capitalization and turnover ratios were used as indicators for capital market; and GDP for economic growth. The
result from this study showed that capital ratio and turnover ratio are both significant and postive drivers of
economic growth in Nigeria and that the stock markets affects economic growth through savings mobilization.
Okoye Lawrence, ModeleNwanneka, Taiwo and OkorieUchnna (2016) investigated the relationship between
capital market development and economic growth using data on GDP (indicators for economic growth), market
capitalization ratio, value traded ratio and stock market turnover ratio (indicators for capital market
development) over the period (1981-2014). Using the econometric methodology of the vector and correction
model, they came to a conclusion that stock market constitutes a significant determinant of economic growth in
Nigeria. That is, there is positive effect of value traded ratio as well as negative effect on inflation rate on GDP
though not significant. And there is also a negative effect of market capitalization ratio and turnover ratio on
GDP.
To examine the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, Osakure C.I and
Ananwud A.C (2017) used a time series data from 1981 to 2015, market capitalization ratio and turnover ratio
as stock market indicators while GDP was used to measure economic growth. The methodology used to analyze
data was Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and Granger Casualty Analysis model. The result showed
that stock market development has positive but insignificant relationship with economic growth both in short
and long run.
Okonkwo Ikeoturunye V., Ananwud A.C., Echekoba F.N (2015) examined the impact of stock market
development and economic growth in Nigeria using a time series data from 1993-2013. They applied the
Johansen Co-integration Model to evaluate the stock market development and economic growth and casual
relationship using four (4) stock market development indices which are; share indices, market capitalization,
number of deals and total value of market transaction.
The results suggest that there is an existence of unidirectional relationship between stock market
development and economic growth which means that the state of development of the economy will determine
the development and operations of the stock market. And that there is also a correlation between stock market
development and economic growth, via all share indices, market capitalization, number of deals and total value
of market transaction.
Adam and Sanni (2005) studied the roles of stock market on economic growth in Nigeria using the
Granger Casualty test and regression analysis. The result showed a one-way casual relationship between GDP
growth and market turnover. They also discussed a positive and significant relationship between GDP growth
and turnover ratios. Therefore, government was advised to encourage the development of capital market since it
has positive effect on economic growth.

III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1.1 Research Design
Descriptive Research Design has been adopted for the purpose of this study. Descriptive Research
Design is used because it deals with the collection and analysis of data for the purposes of describing and
interpreting existing conditions and also make discovery and explanation of past events. It enables exploring
relationship between two or more variables.

3.1.2 Sources of Data Collection

The study adopts a time series research design with reliance on secondary data from the CBN statistical
bulletin and the NSE annual reports. This study will cover the period 2008-2018.

3.1.3 Methods/Techniques of Data Analysis

The data analysis method that will be used in this study is multiple regression analysis in which the
multivariate co-integration and error correction model will be used in order to undertake a thorough examination
of the characteristics of the time series economic data. Four (4) analytical procedures are involved in the co-
integration and error correction model. First, the unit root test will be carried out for each of the variables so as
to ascertain the time series properties of the data set and obtain the stationary status. This is necessary in order to
ensure that the variables are stationary and that stocks are only temporary and will dissipate and revert to their
long-term mean. Next, the test of co-integration is performed in order to discover the long-run rational

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 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

properties of data. The third step is to obtain the error correction representation for the model which helps to
analyze the dynamic short run and long run behavior of the model.

3.1.4 Model Specification

A multivariate econometric model will be specified and estimated for the purpose of this study. The
model examines the relationship between the capital market and economic growth using some selected capital
market variables such as market capitalization rate (MCG), interest rate (INT) and inflation rate (INF). The
functional specification is shown thus;
GDP= β0 + β1 MCG + β2 INT + β3 INF + µ
Where;
GDP= Gross Domestic Product
MCG= Market Capitalization rate
INT= interest Rate
INF= Inflation Rate
U= Error Term
Appropriate Expectation;β1, β2, β3≥ 0

IV. DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

4.1 Data Presentation
This chapter deals with the presentation and analysis of data collected. Multiple regression model is
used to test the hypotheses. The findings and policy implication are discussed. The table that follows contains
the data extracted from the Nigerian stock exchange bulletin and the Central Bank statistical bulletin which was
used in running the regression and obtaining the results of this study.
Multiple regression has been used to estimate the relationship between the independent variables of
capital market development (market capitalization, growth rate, interest rate and inflation rate) and the
dependent variable (Gross domestic product).
TABLE 1
YEAR MCG INT INF GDP
2008 -0.43 3.27 11.60 7.2
2009 -0.33 6.03 12.50 8.4
2010 0.57 11.06 13.7 11.3
2011 -0.23 10.33 10.8 4.9
2012 0.44 8.39 12.2 4.3
2013 0.43 8.78 8.5 5.4
2014 -0.22 7.21 8.0 6.3
2015 -0.20 7.70 9.0 2.7
2016 -0.40 9.37 15.7 -1.6
2017 0.25 8.00 16.5 0.8
2018 -0.15 7.20 12.1 1.9
MCG = Market Capitalization Growth rate
INT = Interest Rate
INF = Inflation Rate
GDP = Growth Domestic Product

4.2 Descriptive Statistics

This shows the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum and skewness values of the variables used in the
study.
TABLE 2

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 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

The independent variables MGS, INT and INF have minimum values of -0.43, 3.27 and 8.00
respectively, with maximum values of 0.57, 11.06 and 18.50 respectively while the dependent variable (GDP)
has a minimum value of -1.60 and maximum value of 11.30.
MCG has a mean of 0.0245 and a standard deviation of 0.37106, INT has a mean of 7.9400 and a standard
deviation of 2.12128, while INF has a mean of 11.8727 and standard deviation of 2.75321. However, GDP has a
mean of 4.6909 and a standard deviation of 3.65362.
This shows that they have low variability but the dependent variable (GDP) has the highest risk of variability
while MCG has the lowest risk of variability.
MCG has a skewness of 0.606 which is close to +1 so is positively skewed. INT has a skewness of -0.794 which
is closer to -1 so is negatively skewed. INF is skewed with 0.235 which is closer to zero with a normal
distribution implication. Whereas, GDP was skewed with 0.056 which is also a normal distribution.

4.3 MODEL SUMMARY

TABLE THREE Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of Durbin-Watson
Square the Estimate
1 .476a .227 -.105 3.83993 .579
a. Predictors: (Constant), INF, MCG, INT
b. Dependent Variable: GDP

From table 3, R represents correlation coefficient of 0.476 which indicates a positive but not significant
relationship between the variables.
R square is 0.227 which shows that a change in the dependent variable is a result of 0.227 changes in the
independent variable (MCG, INT and INF).
AR square represents Adjusted R square which indicates less than 0% of influence of the independent variables
(MCG, INT and INF) on the dependent variable (GDP).
Durbin Watson is 0.579 which show that the dependent and independent variables are positively auto correlated
and can be used for predictions and further studies.

4.4 Test of Hypotheses

Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig. 95.0% Confidence Interval for B
Coefficients
B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound
1 (Constant) 13.027 7.173 1.816 .112 -3.935 29.989
MCG 4.092 3.865 .416 1.059 .325 -5.048 13.232
INT -.404 .683 -.235 -.592 .572 -2.019 1.210
INF -.423 .447 -.319 -.947 .375 -1.481 .634
a. Dependent Variable: GDP
TABLE FOUR

The result of data analysis used for test of hypotheses:

1. There is no significant relationship between market capitalization and GDP.
2. Interest rate has no significant relationship with GDP.
3. Inflation rate is not significantly related to GDP.
DECISION RULE: Accept the null hypothesis if the P value of the t statistics is higher than 0.05 and reject the
null hypothesis if the P value of the t statistics is lower than 0.05.
From table 4, MCG has t value of 1.059 with a probability of 0.325 which is higher than 0.05. We therefore
accept the null hypothesis and conclude that there is no significant relationship between market capitalization
and GDP.
The t value and probability of INT are -0.592 and 0.572 respectively which is higher than 0.05. We
therefore draw conclusion that there is a positive but not significant relationship between Interest rate and GDP.
INF has a t value of -0.947 and probability of 0.375 which is less than 0.05. It is therefore concluded that INF is
not significantly related to GDP.

4.5 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS

This study investigated empirically the effect of capital market development on economic growth in
Nigeria using annual time series of a period of 2008-2018. The multiple regression analysis was used to achieve
*Corresponding Author: Bingilar Paymaster Frank1 www.aijbm.com 62 | Page
 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria

this objective. It was revealed that market capitalization rate, interest rate and inflation rate have positive but
significant relationship with GDP. This indicates that the stock market is not developed and thus, does not
contribute to the growth of the Nigerian economy.

V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 CONCLUSION
This study examined the effect of capital market development on economic growth and it is found
positive. This suggests that for a significant growth to be achieved, the focus of policy makers should be on
measures to provide growth in the stock market.

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
The findings from this study raise the following recommendations:
1. Capital market regulators like the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) should be more open to
innovations and be flexible without jeopardizing the interest and protection of investors as well as the
efficiency of the market.
2. Furthermore, government should discourage Nigerian investors' attitude of buy and hold securities
instead of trading in the capital market. Communication and information network should be upgraded.
3. Lastly, the government should invest more and develop the nation's infrastructure in order to create an
enabling environment for businesses to grow and for productivity and efficiency to thrive which will
boost economic activities.

REFERENCES
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*Corresponding Author: 2Bingilar Paymaster Frank Phd

2
Department of Accounting Faculty of Management Sciences Niger Delta University,
Wilberforce Island, Bayelsa State. Tel: +2348036620418,

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