Persuasive problem solving in

7 steps

Training session materials

October 2011

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY

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 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

8:00 – 8:15 Introduction & ice-breaker

8:15 – 8:45 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

8:45 – 9:00 Pak Haryanto’s speech

9:00 – 10:00 Break-out

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 10:30 Issue analyses

10:30 – 11:15 Break-out

11:15 – 11:30 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:30 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 1
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

8:00 – 8:15 Introduction & ice-breaker

8:15 – 8:45 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

8:45 – 9:00 Pak Haryanto’s speech

9:00 – 10:00 Break-out

10:00 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 10:30 Issue analyses

10:30 – 11:15 Break-out

11:15 – 11:30 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:30 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 2
 Executive

Share with us…

• Your name

• 1 thing that no one in office knows about you

• What do you expect to get out of this course

page 3
 Executive

How can we make the programme a success?

Rules for the programme Rules for group work

• Take responsibility for your own • Be open to test creative techniques –

development also when under pressure

• Be fully attentive (turn off mobile, SMS, • Assign a rotating facilitator when working
Internet, daily routines) in groups.

• Participate – make sessions interactive • Encourage all group members to

participate
• Be open-minded – don’t fight the setting
• If confused, ask openly: there are no
stupid questions

• This is a training environment – take

some risk

• Challenge assumptions – dare to think,

“why not?”

• Focus on ‘process’ rather than

‘answer’/’solution’

page 4
 Executive

Importance of good problem-solving, decision-making and communication

• Get to answers faster

• Use time and resources more efficiently

• Have greater impact on the business

• Free up time to do other things

page 5
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 6
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 7
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 8
 Executive

Problem statement

Clear statement of problem to be Characteristics of good problem statement

solved

• Thought-provoking (not factual) Specific: • Be precise with regards to what you want
– Should intrigue and generate to achieve
interest
• Debatable (not Measurable: • Include a certain figure/amount reflecting
a measurement of quality, quantity, cost,
statement/assertion)
timeliness, or a combination of these
– No single obvious answer
• Focused on what decision maker
needs to move forward Attainable: • Ensure that people can be motivated to
work towards the problem statement
• Pointing towards necessary
analysis • Ensure that each person in their role can
Relevant:
clearly contribute to achieving the overall
target

Time-bound: • Provide certain dates by which results

need to happen. Ongoing expectations
should specify how often

page 9
 Executive

Examples of poor problem statements: Oilco refinery is losing money

The Oilco refinery is suffering from poor Statement of fact

profitability despite a strong market niche • Snap-shot of the situation
position • No question or hypothesis

Should the Oilco refinery improve its Indisputable

deteriorating position? • The answer is obvious but does not
address the problem of how to
improve

Can the Oilco refinery be managed Too general

differently to increase profitability? • Closer to a problem statement but not
actionable
• Does not point towards the required
analysis

page 10
 Executive

Examples of good problem statements for the Oilco Refinery case

What opportunities exist for Oilco to improve

annual profitability by USD 40 million from 2007
on, through cost reductions and sustainable
revenue increases?
Significant and realistic
• Identifies objectives that are
valuable to the organisation
OR • Points towards a complete set of
analyses
Oilco should shift to a low-cost local operator
approach, cut overheads, redesign operations
and restructure non-core assets to improve
annual profitability by USD 40 million

Hypothesis-
driven
page 11
 Executive

Problem definition worksheet

Problem statement
• The basic question

Decision makers Criteria for successful effort

• Audience • “What does success look like”?
• Key decision maker Measures
• Quantifiable target

Key forces acting on decision makers Key sources of insight

• Concerns and issues around the decision • Where are we going to get the
• How will you address conflicting agendas perspectives/input that we need to solve
the problem?

Boundaries and constraints Accuracy

• Time, capital, etc. • How accurate does the solution have to be

page 12
 Executive

Problem definition example: Oilco Refinery case

Problem statement
• What opportunities exist for Oilco to improve annual profitability by USD 40 million from 2007 on, through
cost reductions and sustainable revenue increases?

Decision makers Criteria for successful effort

• CEO Oilco 1. Very significant improvement in refinery profitability
• President, Refinery Business 2. Lower capital expenditure plan
• Oilco Board 3. Clear set of actions developed to move forward
4. Clear definition of refinery strategic orientation
Key forces acting on decision makers (growth platform, low cost operator or other)
CEO • Difficult to get approval for other capital Measures
plans until refinery is under way • Change in cash flow, profit (USD 30 million-40
million annually)
GM • Political and community pressures for a • Return on investment
refinery high-employment, prominent refinery • Cost taken out, capex reduced
role
• Own improvement plan is under way
Key sources of insight
• Lack of competent people who can
• Insights from industry initiatives in recent years
drive the improvement process

Boundaries and constraints Accuracy

• No solutions with greater than 18-month time • Strong directionality more important than detailed
frames accuracy
• No solutions with big capital expenditure needs

page 13
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 14
 Executive

What is a logic tree?

Issue 1

Issue 2

A problem solving tool

that breaks a problem
Problem Issue 3
into discrete chunks
with similar properties

Issue 4

Issue 5

page 15
 Executive

Logic trees answer specific questions at different levels of detail

How / What?
How / What?
Idea 1.1
Problem definition Idea 1
Idea 1.2

Consistent
Mutually
Idea 2.1
Question Idea 2 Exclusive
Idea 2.2 Collectively
Exhaustive
Idea 3.1
Idea 3
Idea 3.2

Formulation of the Complete but non- Further levels of

basic question to be overlapping list of detail for ideas, also
resolved – should conceivable complete and non-
be as specific as solutions overlapping
possible

Level of detail
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 Executive

Start building the logic tree “top down” – if stuck, try “bottom up”

Idea 1

• Start with the overall question

Top down • Break it down into logical, MECE Question Idea 2
components
• Work your way down the tree,
identifying the issues you need to
resolve to answer the question
Idea 3

Idea 2.1

Idea 2.2
Bottom up
• Start with sub-issues, focusing on the
most important
Question Idea 3.1
• Group them into logical themes
• Construct the tree backwards to the
question Idea 3.2
• Check for “MECEness” and consistency
??

page 17
 Executive

Why use logic trees?

Why • Gain a common understanding within the team

• Solving the parts will really solve the problem
• Help focus on key frameworks and theories
• Can even be used to structure (first) documents

How • Sort out logic and conduct analyses

• Set priorities
• Divide and allocate work

page 18
 Executive

Link logic tree to the character of the problem and try different approaches

Alternative 1 Alternative 2

Revenue Lodging

Clothes
How to How to
have have
more more Food
money… money…

Leisure activities

Day shift
Costs
Transportation

Different approaches give different insights – don’t be

afraid to try multiple angles before deciding

page 19
 Executive

Two main types of logic trees

Description Why use it? When to use it?

• Deconstructs an issue • Addresses the • Early in the

into smaller sub- entire solution problem solving
issues (e.g., space process, when
measures, criteria) you know little
Logic • Sub-issues answer • Slow, but steady,
tree about the
the question “What?” reliable approach to
or “How?” problem
problem solving

• Proposes a potential • Focuses early on • When you know

Argument 1 solution and identifies part of the enough about
the arguments solution space, to the problem to
Hypothesis- needed to prove or accelerate formulate sound
Argument 2 disprove it
driven tree problem solving hypotheses
• Arguments answer
the question “Why?”
Argument 3

page 20
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 21
 Executive

The 80/20 rule

Percent

Benefit achieved
in solving the
problem
Perfect
100

80 Useful
“Is it better to
be roughly
right than
exactly wrong”
Cost effectiveness?

20 100
Time and effort invested

page 22
 Executive

Prioritise: Cut off the less important issues

Grocery

Clothing • Focus on key issues

• Prioritise your effort on what is
How to most important – Ask “so what”
have • Look for gaps
more • Get agreement in the team
money… Lodging

Transpo ”There is nothing so useless

rtation
Cut off less as doing efficiently that
important which should not be done at all”
“branches” – Peter F. Drucker

page 23
 Executive

How to prioritize

Use judgement/intuition Involve your team

Be practical!

20

Polishing 80

80

Focusing
20
on impact
Time and Benefit for
effort problem
solving
Do back-of-the-
envelope calculations Take risks
page 24
 Executive

Example of framework for prioritising ideas

Discard Recommend
for later action
Difficulty of implementation

(Possibly
High

recommend for
later action)
Other potential criteria:
• Cost to execute
• Time to impact
Do now Do now
• Risk
• Management focus
(perceived or real)
(Low priority) (High priority)
Low

Low High

Potential impact

page 25
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 26
 Executive

Objectives of the exercise

1. Develop a problem definition sheet for Save-a-Penny

2. Structure the problem by using a logic tree

3. Prioritize the key issues in the logic tree (wait for

faculty to come by and help start this off)

page 27
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 28
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 29
 Executive

Build a detailed work plan to go from issue to analyses

Key issues in hypothesis-driven
tree (after prioritisation) Analyses

2 1
3

2
1
3

Responsibility
Issue Hypothesis Analysis Source and timing End-product

Starts with A statement Work to be Likely Person who will Statement of the
issues from of the likely done to prove/ location obtain the data output from the
issue tree resolution of disprove of data and undertake analysis
the issue hypothesis the analysis What would the
and therefore By when “key analysis” look
resolve the like?
issue

In the end – Look for

the selected few!!
page 30
 Executive

Tactics for successful issue analysis

Be specific Be realistic

Determine the best Frame each analysis so

sources and means that one team member
for obtaining can cope with it
information

Update your Issue

Use your teammates
Analysis Worksheet and
as sounding boards
work plan as you
for hypotheses
proceed with problem
solving

Syndicate
with the team Revisit
page 31
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 32
 Executive

Plan around the fact that data is often neither available nor accurate

page 33
 Executive

Making analyses with no hard data

None
Interviews – ask the
Get samples same questions and
make a chart

Make surveys
Availability
of data

Use alternative sources

of data (experts, press-
clippings, etc.)
Reports, databases, etc.

Complete
Hard, quantitative Soft, qualitative

Character of data

page 34
 Executive

Be extra critical of data if results are inconclusive or dubious…

Do sanity
checks and use
common sense
• What would it
mean…

Try different
Seek advice
data sources
• Team • Exports to DE
• Expert Validation of results from DK vs.
interviews
imports to DE
from DK

Go back 1 step
• Have you
overlooked a
factor?

page 35
 Executive

Tips and tricks for conducting analysis

• A few good analyses can make or break a business case

• You will never get all the data you would like to have, so be pragmatic and
flexible from the beginning

• Keep searching for other, less obvious answers, and make sure to sanity check
your results – do they make sense?

• Be prepared to revise your hypotheses as evidence accumulates – even at the

last minute

page 36
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 37
 Executive

Exercise information: Issue analysis and work planning BREAKOUT EXERCISE

for Save-a-Penny

What? • Break down the core issues for Save-a-Penny to determine what
analysis to make
• Develop a 5-hour work plan for Save-a-Penny analysis, including
data collection and interviews; include analysis, data requests,
and interview guide
– Focus on the “killer analysis” that will help you the most

Who? • You and your breakout team

End • Detailed issues and analysis overview

products? • Work plan for how to crack the Save-a-Penny case

page 38
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 39
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 40
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 41
 Executive

Summary versus synthesis: what’s the difference?

SUMMARY SYNTHESIS

? ?

FACTS
• I have misplaced my keys
• My passport isn't where
I thought it was
• I'm 2 months behind
on my tax return

page 42
 Executive

Summary versus synthesis: extracting a higher level of meaning

SUMMARY SYNTHESIS
I’ve lost my keys I’ve been sloppy
and passport and ?
I'm behind on my
tax return

FACTS
• I have misplaced my keys
• My passport isn't where
I thought it was
• I'm 2 months behind
on my tax return

page 43
 Executive

Structure messages into pyramids with one governing thought

Resolution Governing Recommendation

thought

Co
What should be
Particular insights, reasons,

m
done?

m
steps, benefits, etc.
s

un
si
he

ic
nt

at
Why should it be
Sy

io
Analyses, results done?

n
Facts,
assumptions, How do you know?
etc.
Coherence*
Back-up Back-up

page 44
* Same degree of abstraction at each level
 Executive

Group insights logically to answer your audience’s

anticipated sequence of questions

1. Do the points address the same

kind of issue at each level:
reasons, steps, actions,
What? examples, etc?

Why? 2. Are the points in logical order?

3. Do they answer decisive

questions in the right order
“What?”
How? “Why?”
“How?”

4. Are points full messages (full

statements)?

5. Are points at the same level

of structure and abstraction?

6. Is it MECE? (Mutually Exclusive,

Collectively Exhaustive)

page 45
 Executive

Choose right structure for your audience

Grouping Argument

Governing Governing
thought thought

Reasons vs. Reasoning

Actions vs. Need for action
Receptive audience vs. Resistant audience

page 46
 Executive

Synthesis helps develop a powerful and effective main message

What is the one thing I Main message must be:

want my audience to
think or do as a result of • Targeted
this communication? • Overarching
• Powerful
• Supportable

page 47
 Executive

Example grouping structure

One governing
thought at the top
(key message)

Good project
managers contribute
Overarching extensive
conclusions capabilities in 3
in complete dimensions
sentence

Their professional
They possess a set qualifications are
They have polished
of broad outstanding
interpersonal skills
management skills (specialised
expertise)

Sufficient
Familiarity Understanding Ability to
Results- Leadership Ability to Good time knowledge Conflict
with the of market work well Coaching
oriented skills delegate management of subject management
organisation requirements in a team
area

page17a
Module 12 – page 48
Source: McKinsey
 Executive

Example argument structure

We should enter the One key

market for fashionable statement
shoes for young people at the top
Why?

(“However..") ("Therefore ...")

Our current focus is on The market outlook for

the stagnating market for We should develop a
young shoe fashions is
customers over 35 market entry strategy for
attractive
young shoe fashions
Evidence? Evidence? Evidence?

85% of our Purchasing High market High buying We should Our

customers power of potential – power among offer more advertising
are over 35 consumers 60% of young young fashionable strategy
over 35 is consumers are consumers – products that should be
declining – interested in disposable target a aligned to
they are fashionable, income younger young
investing in unconventional among young clientele consumers
other products shoes people is up

page 49
 Executive

The 7-step problem solving approach

1 2 3
Define the Break the Prioritise issues
problem problem into
issues
Problem

?
4 5 6 7
Build a detailed Conduct critical Interpret Tell the story
work plan analyses findings and
build argument

Do it again!

page 50
 Executive

Transferring the storyline into a storyboard or “dummy pack”

ILLUSTRATIVE

Agenda
Steps (Cover Page: Title) • Introduction (why act) (Introduction: why are
• Succeeding with X requires we where?)
1+2+3
1 Determine the title – Which topic (Governing thought • Next steps
• Who does what Situation
am I dealing with/what is my main • “Y” is attractive (assessment Complication
message? of that other thing you wanted
Resolution
Write story (storyline/key 1 2 (recommendation) 3
2
messages) – What are my key Succeeding with Message Message
resolution requires exhibit title exhibit title
messages?
• Point 1
3 This can serve as agenda • Point 2 ?
• Point 3 4 5 6
4 Formulate message for all charts
in complete sentences – normally Message Message
Succeeding with
resolution requires exhibit title Title exhibit title
according to the storyline 100% = xxx
• Point 1 • …
5 Roughly sketch out charts – With • Point 2 • …
which visualisation can I support • Point 3 7 8 • … 9
the charts? Message Message
Succeeding with
resolution requires exhibit title exhibit title
6 Divide charts among workstreams • Point 1 … … … …
• …
• …
(if working in team) and add detail • Point 2 • … • … • … • … • …

• Chart title • Point 3 10 11 • …

12
• Visual/verbal support Agenda Next steps
• Introduction (why act) • …
7 Put charts together accordingly for • Succeeding with X requires • …
1+2+3
the presentation • Next steps • …
• Who does what
• “Y” is attractive 13 14

page 51
 Executive

Reasons for drafting a storyboard or “dummy pack” first

A storyboard or “dummy pack”

• Communicates your end product well in advance

– Increases the comfort level of others
– Allows you to capture input from the team and modify your direction
early

• Structures your analysis by tying your work to the issue tree

• Focuses your analysis on the critical questions and indicates the

appropriate level of detail

• Ensures your analysis most effectively proves the point you are trying
to make

• Clarifies your data needs and the format you need for your data

page 52
 Executive

Try to make visual slides rather than text slides

• An image can synthesise a great mass of facts into an effective

message

• Images help the audience remember what they have seen

• Relationships between numerical data are intuitively understood

when presented graphically instead of as text points

page 53
 Executive

Key success factors for exhibit design

The
message
drives the
design
One clear Legible! Content
message and title work
per chart together
Sales of X are steadily increasing
USD Millions

500

400

300
Less is Simplicity
better 200
and
consistency
100 in format

0
Jan Feb 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

page 54
Source: Zelazny, Say It with Charts
 Executive

Message titles tell the audience your interpretation of the data

“Message title”
Briefly states the
“so what” of the Cash flow turns positive by 2003 PRELIMINARY
USD Millions*
chart Annual cash flow
Cumulative cash
flow

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

* In 2000 dollars
Source: Team analysis

page 55
Source: Zelazny, Say It with Charts
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 56
 Executive

Objectives for this exercise

1. Synthesize key findings from the analyses provided

2. Finalize recommendations based on findings

3. Develop a storyline using the pyramid principle

page 57
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 58
 Executive

Share with us…

• 1 learning from this course (cannot be

repeated)

page 59
 Executive

Problem Solving Techniques Workshop Agenda

Tuesday, October 11

9:20 – 9:35 Problem definition, structuring & prioritization

9:35 – 10:20 Break-out

10:20 – 10:35 Issue analyses

10:35 – 11:20 Break-out

11:20 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 11:45 Synthesis and recommendation development

11:45 – 12:30 Break-out

12:30 – 13:00 Wrap-up (learnings & feedback)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

page 60