Lecture 14.

Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and
Probability
Lecture 14. Combinatorics and Probability (§3.4)

13 March (Mon)
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Prologue
(§3.4)
• Apply the concepts of permutations and combinations to probability
Combinatorics
calculations.
and
Probability
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
A Birthday Probability
(§3.4)
Example 1. A group of three people is selected at random. What is the probability
that at least two of them will have the same birthday?
Combinatorics
and
Probability
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
A Birthday Probability
(§3.4)
Example 1. A group of three people is selected at random. What is the probability
that at least two of them will have the same birthday?
Combinatorics
and • We will assume that all birthdays are equally likely, and for the sake of
Probability
simplicity, we will ignore leap-year day (February 29).
• The experiment E is to ask three people their birthdays. One possible
outcome is (May 1, May 3, August 23).
• The sample space S is the set of all possible lists of three birthdays.
• Recall that “How to compute probability”
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)
• Finding n(S) by counting the elements in S is impractical, so we will use
Combinatorics
combinatorics as described in “Which Combinatorics Method”.
and
Probability
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)
• Finding n(S) by counting the elements in S is impractical, so we will use
Combinatorics
combinatorics as described in “Which Combinatorics Method”.
and
Probability The selected items are birthdays. They are selected with replacement because
people can share the same birthday. This tells us to use
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)
• Finding n(S) by counting the elements in S is impractical, so we will use
Combinatorics
combinatorics as described in “Which Combinatorics Method”.
and
Probability The selected items are birthdays. They are selected with replacement because
people can share the same birthday. This tells us to use the Fundamental
Principle of Counting:

Each birthday can be any one of the 365 days in a year, so

n(S) = 365 · 365 · 365 = 3653 = 48, 627, 125.

 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4) • The event E is the set of all possible lists of three birthdays in which some
birthdays are the same. It is difficult to compute n(E) directly; instead, we
Combinatorics
and
will compute n(E 0 ) and use the Complement Rule. E 0 is the set of all
Probability possible lists of three birthdays in which no birthdays are the same.
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4) • The event E is the set of all possible lists of three birthdays in which some
birthdays are the same. It is difficult to compute n(E) directly; instead, we
Combinatorics
and
will compute n(E 0 ) and use the Complement Rule. E 0 is the set of all
Probability possible lists of three birthdays in which no birthdays are the same.
• Finding n(E 0 ) using “Which Combinatorics Method”:
The birthdays are selected without replacement, because no birthdays are the
same.
There is only one category: birthdays.
The order of selection does matter. (May 1, May 3, August 23) is a different
list from (May 3, August 23, May 1) - so use
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4) • The event E is the set of all possible lists of three birthdays in which some
birthdays are the same. It is difficult to compute n(E) directly; instead, we
Combinatorics
and
will compute n(E 0 ) and use the Complement Rule. E 0 is the set of all
Probability possible lists of three birthdays in which no birthdays are the same.
• Finding n(E 0 ) using “Which Combinatorics Method”:
The birthdays are selected without replacement, because no birthdays are the
same.
There is only one category: birthdays.
The order of selection does matter. (May 1, May 3, August 23) is a different
list from (May 3, August 23, May 1) - so use permutations

n(E 0 ) = 365 P3
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and • Finding p(E 0 ) and p(E ):
Probability

n(E 0 ) 365 P3
p(E 0 ) = = so that p(E ) = 1 − p(E 0 ) = 0.008204... ≈ 0.8%
n(S) 3653

This result is not at all surprising. It means that two or more people in a
group of three share a birthday slightly less than 1% of the time. In other
words, this situation is extremely unlikely.
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and Problem. A group of thirty people is selected at random. What is the probability
Probability
that at least two of them will have the same birthday?
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and Problem. A group of thirty people is selected at random. What is the probability
Probability
that at least two of them will have the same birthday?
Answer.

n(S) = 36530 , n(E 0 ) = 365 P30 = 2.1710302 × 1076 , p(E ) ≈ 0.7063

over 70%
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Cards: Getting Four Aces
(§3.4)
One common form of poker is five-card draw, in which each player is dealt five
cards. The order in which the cards are dealt is unimportant, so we compute
Combinatorics
and probabilities with combinations rather than permutations.
Probability
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Example 2. Find the probability of being dealt four aces.
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and
Probability
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Example 2. Find the probability of being dealt four aces.
(§3.4) Solution. The sample space consists of all possible five-card hands that can be
dealt from a deck of fifty-two cards
Combinatorics
and
• Finding n(S):
Probability • Selection is done without replacement.
• Order does not matter, so use combinations.
• n(S) = 52 C5
• The event E consists of all possible five-card hands that include four aces and
one non-ace.
• There are two categories-aces and non-aces-so use the Fundamental Principle of
Counting.
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Example 2. Find the probability of being dealt four aces.
(§3.4) Solution. The sample space consists of all possible five-card hands that can be
dealt from a deck of fifty-two cards
Combinatorics
and
• Finding n(S):
Probability • Selection is done without replacement.
• Order does not matter, so use combinations.
• n(S) = 52 C5
• The event E consists of all possible five-card hands that include four aces and
one non-ace.
• There are two categories-aces and non-aces-so use the Fundamental Principle of
Counting.
• Use combinations as with n(S).
• The gambler is to be dealt four of four aces. This can happen in 4 C4 ways.
• The gambler is to be dealt one of 52-4=48 non-aces. This can be done in 48 C1
ways.
• Thus n(E ) = 4 C4 · 48 C1
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)
• Finding p(E):
Combinatorics
and · 48 C1
4 C4
Probability p(E ) =
52 C5
= 0.000018...
≈ 0.00002
= 2/100, 000
= 1/50, 000
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
(§3.4)
• Finding p(E):
Combinatorics
and · 48 C1
4 C4
Probability p(E ) =
52 C5
= 0.000018...
≈ 0.00002
= 2/100, 000
= 1/50, 000

• This means that if you play cards a lot, you will be dealt four aces about once
every 50,000 deals.
 Lecture 14.
Combinatorics
and
Probability
Exercises
(§3.4)

Combinatorics
and
Probability
1 Find the probability of being dealt five hearts.
2 You order twelve burritos to go from a Mexican restaurant, five with hot
peppers and seven without. However, the restaurant forgot to label them. If
you pick three burritos at random, find the probability of each event.
(a) All have hot peppers.
(b) None has hot peppers.
(c) Exactly two have hot peppers.
(d) At most one has hot peppers.
(e) At least one has hot peppers.
(f) At least two have hot peppers.
(g) At most two have hot peppers.