Bangladesh Economic and Financial Indicators, April 2018

Bangladesh: Selected Indicators

Bangladesh economy maintained an average annual 2.5% population growth rate in 1990 declined to 1.1%
growth rate of six percent plus over the last decade, in 2016, with population reaching 163 million
with 7.28% outturn in FY17

Trend of Demographic Indicators

Trend of Real GDP Growth and GDP per capita 1/
1990-2016
FY91-FY17 (y/y, in percentage points)
Population ages 65 and above (% of total)
Population ages 15-64 (% of total)
Population ages 0-14 (% of total)
GDP per capit (current US$)
Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population)
GDP growth (annual %, RHS) Population growth rate (%, RHS)
Linear (GDP growth (annual %, RHS) ) 100 3.0
1600 8 90
2.5
1400 7 80

1200 6 70
2.0
60
1000 5
50 1.5
800 4
40
600 3 1.0
30
400 2 20
0.5
200 1 10

0 0 0 0.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17

Income poverty incidence (national measure-upper

ILO estimates 56.5% of population aged 15+ are in labor
poverty line) came down from 57% in 1991 to 24% in
force in 2017; the female participation rate is only 33.04%
2016

Trend of Labor Force Participation 4/

Trend of Poverty Reduction and Gini Index 2, 3/
1991-2017
1991-2016

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.20 a day (2011 PPP) (% of Labor force participation rate, female (% of female
population) population ages 15+) (national estimate)
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population
population) ages 15+) (national estimate)
Poverty headcount ratio at national upper poverty lines (% Labor force participation rate, female (% of female
of population) population ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate)
GINI index (World Bank estimate, RHS) Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population
ages 15+) (modeled ILO estimate)
100 40 80
70
80
30 60
60 50
20 40
40 30
10 20
20
10
0 0 0
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

1/ July-Jun period is considered as FY in Bangladesh. In calculating GDP per capita, population data is taken from the WDI. To calculate FY17
WDI population data, FY17 national population growth rate is used. 2/ In national measure, up to 1991 a man having intake of less than 2,122
kilo-calories daily was considered as absolute poor (upper poverty line), and one having intake of below 1,805 kilo-calories was considered as
hard-core poor. Since 1995, the ‘Cost of Basic Needs (CBN)’ method has been used. 3/ Gini Index ranges from 0 to 100, higher value shows
higher inequality. Gini index of 0 means perfect equality, while an index of 100 indicates perfect inequality. 4/ National estimates of labor force
participation rate for 2016 and 2017 are respectively of FY2016 and FY2017.
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), World Development Indicators (WDI); and IMF staff calculations
 Bangladesh: Real Sector Developments
Private consumption contributed about 2/3rd of FY17 GDP
Consumption-GDP ratio fell from 80.81% in FY08 to 74.67%
growth, while worsening net exports weakened the
in FY17, while during this period investment-GDP ratio
momentum
edged up from 26.2% to 30.51%.

Contributions to Real GDP Growth

Selected indicators’ share in Nominal GDP
FY06-FY17 (y/y, in percentage points)
FY06-FY17 (in percentage points)
Private Consumption Public Consumption Investment Export
Private Investment Public Investment
Import Remittance
Net exports Statiscal discrepency
GDP growth Consumption (RHS)
10
40 82

30
6

20 78

2 10

0 74
-2

FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

On the production side, service sector contributed 3.41% of 7.28% GDP growth in FY17, and industry sector 3.1%. Provisional
estimate of 7.65% GDP growth in FY18 accounts for higher contribution from manufacturing led industrial sector.

Sectoral Contributions to Real GDP Growth (Contd.)

Sectoral Contributions to Real GDP Growth
FY11-FY18p (y/y, in percentage points)
FY11-FY18p (y/y, in percentage points)
9
Tax less subsidy
Agriculture Industry 8
Other services
Service Tax less subsidy 7
GDP Growth Transport, storage,
6
9 communication
5 Wholesale and retail
trade
4 Other Industry
4 3
Construction
2
Manufacturing
1
0 Agriculture, Forestry
-1
and Fisheries
FY18p
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18p

GDP growth

Headline inflation of 5.82 percent in Mar 2018 is below In Mar 2018 y/y inflation of non-food and core items slightly
H2FY18 upper limit 6 percent ticked up, while for food items the rate edged down a little

Twelve Month Average Inflation Point-to-Point Inflation

Sep 15-Mar 18 (y/y, in percentage points) Sep 15-Mar 18 (y/y, in percentage points)
General Food General Food
Non Food Core
Non Food Core
10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

2 2
Sep-15
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jul-16

Jul-17
May-16

May-17
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
Sep-15
Nov-15

Sep-16
Nov-16

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jul-16

Jul-17
May-16

May-17
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

P stands for provisional.

Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

2
 Bangladesh: External Sector Developments

Intermediate goods account for 54.99% of USD 35.82 billion

In FY18 (Jul-Feb) BOP deficit stands at USD 978 million,
imports during Jul-Feb of FY18, while food and consumer
driven by current account (CA) deficit of USD 6.32 billion.
goods account for 13.56%, followed by 10.25% for capital
93.42% of CA deficit is met by financial and capital
machinery
account surplus
Item-wise Contributions to Import Growth
Balance of Payments Components
FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb)
FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb)
(y/y growth, in percentage points)
(in billion USD, unless otherwise mentioned) 1/
Current account balance Capital account balance Others Capital machinery
Financial account balance Errors and omissions Intermediate goods Food and consumer goods
Overall balance Total
10 60
5
0 40
-5 20
-10
0
FY17 (Jul-Feb)

FY18 (Jul-Feb)
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18 (Jul-

FY18 (Jul-
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

Feb)
Jan)
Exports to Europe, destination for 61.22% of exports,
contributed about 6.29% of total 6.33% exports growth GCC countries account for 56.45% of USD 10.76 billion
during Jul-Mar of FY18 remittance inflows in FY18 (Jul-Mar) where KSA accounts for
Destination of Goods Exports 17.24% of total inflows, followed by 15.88% from UAE and
FY16-FY18 (Jul-Mar) about 13.25% from USA
(country/regional share, billion USD) Contributions to Workers’ Remittances
FY11-FY18 (Jul-Mar), (y/y percentage change)
Other Countries Other European Countries
Saudi Arabia U.A.E. Oman
France Germany U.K. U.S.A. Other Countries
UK USA Total
60
40 40
30 20
0
20 -20
10
FY 11

FY 12

FY 13

FY 14

FY 15

FY 16

FY17

FY18 (Jul-

FY18 (Jul-
Mar)
Feb)
0
FY16

FY18

FY18

FY18

Mar)
Dec)
Sep)
(Jul-

(Jul-

(Jul-
FY17

Since early 2017 FX reserves have been hovering around In Q1 2018, BB mopped up Taka 54.22 billion from the
USD 33 billion, currently covering 6 months of imports market through USD transactions, containing depreciation of
International Reserves BGD Taka
Jun 2011-Feb 2018 2/ Exchange Rates 3/
(In billions of USD, unless otherwise indicated) Sep 2015-Mar 2018
Gross International Reserves (RHS) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (2015-16=100)
Net International Reserves (BB definition, RHS)
Reserves (months of imports, valuation adjust.)
Real Effective Exchange Rate (2015-16=100)
8 40 Taka per USD (RHS)
105 85
6
100
4 20
95 80
2 90
0 0 85 75
Nov-15

Mar-16

Nov-16

Nov-17
May-16

Mar-17
May-17

Mar-18
Sep-15

Jan-16

Sep-16

Jan-17

Sep-17

Jan-18
Jul-16

Jul-17
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16

Jun-17

Sep-17

Nov-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Feb-17

Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17

Feb-18
Dec-17
Jan-18
Oct-17

1/ FY17 (Jul-Feb) GDP data is annualized using actual GDP for FY17; FY18 (Jul-Jan), FY18 (Jul-Feb) and FY18 (Jul-Mar) GDP data are annualized
using FY17 actual GDP and IMF staff projected GDP for FY18. 2/ Net international reserve (NIR) is gross international reserves (excluding
investment on bonds below the grade BBB, Silver Acquisition A/C, deposit with Rupali Bank, Pakistan & deposit with Sonali Bank, UK) minus
total liabilities. Total liabilities comprise reserve liabilities in ACU, IMF Trust Fund Account (ECF) and other foreign currency clearing accounts,
and deposits of IBRD/IDA, and SDR allocation. 3/ Since Jan 2018, REER is estimated.
Sources: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF staff calculations

3
 Bangladesh: Fiscal Sector Developments

In FY18 (Jul-Feb) revenue-GDP ratio stands at 5.93% Revenue grew by 2.78% in FY18 (Jul-Feb), significantly lower
compared to 6.58% in the same period of FY17 than targeted 43% for FY18
Central Government Revenue Contributions to Total Revenue Generation
FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb) (In percent of GDP) 1/ FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb) (y/y, in percentage points) 1/

Other Other
VAT and supplementary duties VAT and supplementary duties
Customs duties Customs duties
Taxes on income and profits Taxes on income and profits
Total revenue Total revenue
12 25
8 15
4 5
0 -5

FY17(Jul-

FY18 (Jul-
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18 (Jul-Feb)
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17
Feb)

Feb)
Budget execution is 6.57% of GDP in FY18 (Jul-Feb) 7.72% growth of spending in FY18 (Jul-Feb) is significantly
compared to 6.97% in the same period of FY17, with ADP of lower than targeted 58% for FY18
1.53% of GDP compared to 1.61% in the same period of FY17
Contributions to Total Expenditure Growth
Central Government Expenditure FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb) (y/y, in percentage points) 1/
FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb) (In percent of GDP) 1/
Other expenditure Interest payments Other expenditure Interest payments
ADP expenditure Subsidies and net lending ADP expenditure Subsidies and net lending
Pay and allowances Total expenditure Pay and allowances Total expenditure
16
30
12 20
8 10
0
4 -10
0

FY18 (Jul-Feb)
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17
FY17(Jul-

FY18 (Jul-
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

Feb)

Feb)

In FY18 (Jul-Feb), NSD tools contributed 85.16% of net

financing (Taka 243.2 billion), external sources
contributed 83.41%, while bank borrowing was negative In Feb 2018 central government debt in percent of GDP
72.92% increased to 33.71% from 29.76% in Oct 2017

Fiscal Balance and Sources of Financing Central Govt. Debt

FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb) (Percent of net FY11-FY18 (Jul-Feb)
financing, unless otherwise indicated) 1,2 / (In percent of GDP) 3/
Net domestic financing: nonbanks, except NSD
External debt Domestic debt
Net domestic financing: NSD
Net domestic financing: net banks Total debt
40
Net external financing
Net financing (% of GDP), RHS 30
160 4
100 3 20
40 2
-20 1 10
-80 0
0
FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18(Jul-

FY18(Jul-

Nov-17
Jun-11

Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Feb-18
Jan-18
Oct-17
Feb)
Jan)

1/ FY17 (Jul-Feb) GDP data is annualized using actual GDP for FY17; FY18 (Jul-Jan) and FY18 (Jul-Feb) GDP data are annualized using FY17 actual
GDP and IMF staff projected GDP for FY18. 2/ Net external financing is net MLT data taken from the Balance of Payments; National Savings
Directorate (NSD) tools data and other domestic financing data are taken from Bangladesh Bank. 3/ Central govt. debt data are calculated as per
note 2/.
Sources: Office of the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), Ministry of Finance; Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations

4
 Bangladesh: Monetary and Financial Market Developments

Broad money growth in Feb 2018 reached 9.78%, below Upward edging of interest rates indicates tightening liquidity
13.3% target, with about 14.04% contribution from market
buoyant private sector credit
Contributions to Broad Money Growth Lending Rate, Deposit Rate and Call Money Rate
Jun 2011-Feb 2018 (y/y, in percentage points) Jun 2011-Jan 2018 (in percentage points)
Other domestic assets
Deposit Rate Lending Rate
Claims on the private sector
Net claims on central government Call Money Rate
Net foreign assets 15
Broad money
30
10
20

10 5

0
0
-10

Jun-11

Jun-13

Jun-15

Sep-17

Nov-17
Jul-17
May-17
Mar-17
Jan-17

Jan-18
Jun-11

Jun-13

Jun-15

Jun-17

Aug-17
Feb-17

Apr-17

Feb-18
Dec-17
Oct-17

As high as 11.76%, the return from NSD instruments

propels excess demand, placing stress on core liquidity in At end Dec 2017, state owned banks (SOBs) maintained
the banking system 5.04% CAR- below regulatory requirement of 10%

Postal Savings, NSC and Commercial Banks’ Rates Capital Adequacy Ratio
Jun 2011-Mar 2018 (in percentage points) Dec15-Dec 2017 (in percentage points)

Postal Savings Rate (1-year, interest after maturity) 30

National Savings Certificate (NSC) rate (3 months) 25
NSC rate (5-year BGD certicates) 20
NSC rate (5-year Pensioner certificates, interest after 3 months)
15
Deposit Rate
10
15 5
10 0
5
Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
0
Nov-17
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16

Jun-17

Sep-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Feb-17

Apr-17
May-17
Mar-17

Feb-18
Dec-17

Mar-18
Jan-18
Oct-17

Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs

Market capitalization of country’s two stock bourses- Dhaka

In 2017, the NPL ratio rose to 9.31% compared to 9.23 % Stock Exchange (DSE) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE)
in 2016, with rise in case of SOBs from 25.05% to 26.52%, respectively, amounts to 19.2% and 15.8% of GDP in FY17.
and for private commercial banks (PCBs) from 4.58% to The 3-mma DSE turnover has been falling since Sep 2017
4.87%
Dhaka Stock Market Performance
Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio Sep 2010-Mar 2018
Dec 15-Dec 2017 (in percent of loans) (3-month moving average)
35
Dhaka Stock Index
30 Turnover (in billions of Taka, RHS)
25 Price Volatility (3 months moving standard deviation, RHS)
20 1200
8000 1000
15
6000 800
10
4000 600
5 400
2000 200
0
0 0
Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17

Sep-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17
Dec-15
Dec-16

Dec-17

Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18

Banking Sector SOBs PCBs FCBs

Source: Bangladesh Bank; and IMF Staff calculations