GroundMotion DSHA-PSHA PDF
GroundMotion DSHA-PSHA PDF
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Strong Ground Motion
Evaluation of the effects of earthquakes requires the
study of ground motion
Engineering Seismology deals with vibrations related
to earthquakes, which are strong enough to cause
damage to people and environment
Time (sec)
2
Components of Ground Motion
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Measuring ground motion
Seismographs are used to measure the
ground motion. Seismogram is the
output from the seismograph. It is a
record of the ground motion at a
measuring station as a function of time.
Seismograms typically record motions
in three cartesian axes (x, y, and z),
with the z axis perpendicular to the
Earth's surface and the x- and y- axes
parallel to the surface. Three inertial
seismometers are commonly used in
one instrument housing to measure
up-down, east-west, north-south
motions simultaneously. 4
Seismogram interpretation
Seismograms can provide
information on
location of epicenter
magnitude of
earthquake
source properties
Most seismograms record P, S
& surface waves
First arrival is P wave - surface waves follow and may
After a pause of several continue for tens of seconds
seconds/10s of seconds - surface waves are slower but
persist to greater distances than
the higher amplitude S
P & S waves
wave arrives
5
Wave terminology
Wave amplitude
displacement, y
height of a wave above its
zero position T= 1/f
Wave period
time taken to complete one A
cycle of motion time, t
Frequency
number of cycles per second
(Hertz)
— human ear can detect
frequencies in range
15-20000 Hz A= amplitude
— felt shaking during
quake has frequencies T= Period
from 20 down to 1
Hertz f = frequency
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Ground Motion Recording
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Vertical Benioff Seismometer
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Piezoelectric Accelerometer
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Geophone
Geophones (velocity transducers) are used to measure the
seismic wave velocities. They transform the mechanical wave
energy to electrical voltage and the response is captured with
time to obtain the velocity of seismic waves
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Geophone
Traditional geophones consist of a magnetized mass fixed to
the container and a surrounding coil suspended by springs.
Natural frequency is controlled by the mass and spring
constant.
Response curve is the plot of the electric voltage output from
a geophone as it changes with different wave frequencies.
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Array of Geophones
Coil
MEMS
Acceleration sensitive 17
Hydrophones
Instead of recording displacement, hydrophones record changes
in pressure. A piezo-electric crystal senses the pressure change
and creates a voltage. This sensor is used for ocean floor seismic
sensing.
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Broadband Seismometer
Broadband seismometers can detect motion over a wide range
(or band) of frequencies and usually over a large range of
amplitudes (the dynamic range). Broadband sensors respond to
most frequencies from 0.01 Hz to 50 Hz. For regional seismology,
the frequency range of interest is from 0.05 to 20 Hz therefore;
broadband sensors are most useful for recording regional
earthquakes .
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Strong motion seismographs
21
http://200.119.88.135/RSNC/index.php/joomla-overview/red-sismologica-nacional-de-colombia
Recommended Reading
Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.
http://www.iris.edu/stations/seisWorkshop04/iris_sensor_ws_9.19.05.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerometer
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Ground Motion Parameters
An earthquake history can be described using Amplitude, Frequency
content, and Duration.
Amplitude: The most common measures of amplitude are
PGA: Peak ground acceleration (Horizontal- PHA & Vertical- PVA)
EPA: Effective peak acceleration
PGV: Peak ground velocity (PHV & PVV)
EPV: Effective peak velocity
PGD: Peak ground displacement
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Ground Motion Parameters
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Measurement of ground acceleration
A seismograph can be illustrated by a mass-spring-dashpot
single degree of freedom system.
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PGA = 0.106 g
PGA = 0.08 g
PGA = 0.07 g
Strong motion accelerograms recorded on the ground floor of the Passport Office Building at
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Ahmedabad during 2001 Bhuj earthquake.
Amplitude Parameters
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Design ground motion parameters
Complete reliance on peak ground acceleration for
design proved to give wrong results.
This is because, more often the peak acceleration
corresponds to very high frequencies which are out of the
range of the natural frequencies of most structures.
Therefore, large values of peak ground acceleration alone can
seldom initiate either resonance in the elastic range or be
responsible for large scale damage in the inelastic range.
Therefore, different parameters are required to characterize
the severity and the damage potential of the earthquake
ground motion. In general, these parameters are frequency
and duration of strong ground motion
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Frequency Content Parameters
The frequency content
describes clearly how the
amplitude of ground motion is
distributed among different
frequencies. The frequency
content of a ground motion
can be obtained by
transforming the ground
motion from time domain to a
frequency domain through a Source: Kramer (1996)
Fourier transform.
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Frequency Content Parameters
The frequency content of an earthquake history is often
described using Fourier Spectra, Power spectra and
response spectra.
Fourier Spectra
A periodic function (for which an earthquake history is an
approximation) can be written as
x(t ) c0 cn sin( n t n )
n 1
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Fourier Spectra
The Fourier amplitude spectrum is a plot of cn versus n
Shows how the amplitude of the motion varies with
frequency.
Expresses the frequency content of a motion
The Fourier phase spectrum is a plot of n versus n
Phase angles control the times at which the peaks of
harmonic motion occur.
Fourier phase spectrum is influenced by the variation of
ground motion with time.
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Fourier Spectra
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Fourier Amplitude Spectrum
Fourier Amplitude
Predominant Period (Tp): Period of GM1
vibration corresponding to the maximum GM2
value of the Fourier amplitude spectrum.
This parameter represents the frequency
content of the motion.
Tp
The predominant period for two Period
different ground motions (GM1 & GM2) Tp is same for the two
with different frequency contents can be ground motions, though
the frequency content is
same, making the estimation of
different
frequency content crude.
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Predominant Period
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Duration
Duration of an earthquake is a very important parameter that
influences the amount of damage due to an earthquake. A
strong motion of very high amplitude of short duration may
not cause as much damage to a structure as a motion with
moderate amplitude and long duration. This is because ground
motions with long durations cause more load reversals, which
is important in the degradation of stiffness of the structures
and in building up pore pressures in loose saturated soils.
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Duration
Source: Kramer (1996)
The duration of an
earthquake history is
somewhat dependent
on the magnitude of
the earthquake. Figure
below shows
accelerograms from six
earthquakes of the
Pacific coast of Mexico.
The epicentral distance
was the same for all six
earthquakes.
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Duration
Bracketed duration is the measure of time between the first
and last exceedence of a threshold acceleration 0.05 g.
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Source: Kramer (1996)
Bracketed Duration
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Recommended Reading
http://webshaker.ucsd.edu/homework/Ground_motion_parameters.pdf
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Other Spectral Parameters
RMS acceleration : This is the parameter that includes the
effects of amplitude and frequency, defined as
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Other Spectral Parameters
SI - The Spectrum Intensity is defined as the integral of the
psuedo-spectral velocity curve (also known as the velocity
response spectrum), integrated between periods of 0.1 - 2.5
seconds. These quantities are motivated by the need to
examine the response of structures to ground motion, as
many structures have fundamental periods between 0.1 and
2.5 sec. The SI can be calculated for any structural damping
ratio.
Dominant frequency of ground motion (Fd) is defined as the
frequency corresponding to the peak value in the amplitude
spectrum. Thus, Fd indicates the frequency for which the
ground motion has the most energy. The amplitude
spectrum has to be smoothed before determining Fd.
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Other Spectral Parameters
Bandwidth BW - of the dominant frequency; measured
where the amplitude falls to 0.707 (1 /2) of the amplitude
of the dominant frequency. Again, this is based on a
smoothed amplitude spectrum.
Fourier Amplitude
Band
Period
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Spatial variability of ground motions
The ground motion parameters at any site depend upon the
magnitude of earthquake and the distance of the site from
epicenter.
The ground motion parameters measured at a site have been
used to develop empirical relationships to predict the
parameters as functions of earthquake magnitude and source-
to-site distance. But these predictions are not accurate.
For structures that extend over considerable distance (such as
bridges and pipelines), the ground motion parameters will be
different at different part of the structure, causing differential
movement of the supports. Local variation of ground motion
parameters need to be considered for the design of such
structures.
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Ground Motion Parameters
One of the most important decisions in carrying out proper
design is to select a design earthquake that adequately
represents the ground motion expected at a particular site and in
particular the motion that would drive the structure to its critical
response, resulting in the highest damage potential.
The quantification of such ground motion is not easy. It requires
a good understanding of the ground motion parameters that
characterize the severity and the damage potential of the
earthquake ground motion and the seismological, geological, and
topographic factors that affect them.
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Why is PHA important?
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Why vertical accelerations are not very
important?
Structures have gravity acting against vertical
accelerations due to earthquake. Static forced
induced due to gravity provide adequate resistance
to dynamic forces induced due to vertical
accelerations during earthquake.
PVA 2/3 PHA
PVA > 2/3 PHA near epicenter
PVA < 2/3 PHA at distances far from epicenter
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Why high peak accelerations
cause little damage?
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Why can’t peak amplitudes quantify
destruction?
time time
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Peak acceleration and effective
acceleration
Peak accelerations correspond to the highest acceleration
value recorded during earthquake at a specific location.
Effective acceleration is the acceleration which is most
effective in causing damage to structure.
Peak acceleration is independent of structural response.
Effective acceleration is based on structural response
In a free field, effective and peak accelerations are equal
Near the structure, effective acceleration is generally less
than the peak acceleration.
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Effective
acceleration
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PHA and Earthquake
Intensity
Many researchers tried to correlate PHA to
earthquake intensity and magnitude.
Though, this procedure is not accurate.
Many times, these relations are useful to
obtain PHA from Mercalli’s intensity,
especially for earthquakes which have
occurred prior to strong motion instruments
were available.
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PHA and PHV
Peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and peak horizontal
velocity (PHV) do not occur at same frequencies. Peak
accelerations and peak velocities are associated with higher
and intermediate frequencies, respectively.
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PHA and PHV
Recall that T is the period of vibration of an equivalent
harmonic wave.
This period provides information on what frequencies are
more significant dominant in a given ground motion. Thus,
this is called the predominant period.
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Estimation of Ground Motion Parameters
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Estimation of Ground Motion Parameters
Predictive relationships are often arrived at by
regression analysis of the available strong motion
data
These relationships have to be updated time to
time after major earthquakes in the region.
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Estimation of Ground Motion Parameters
Common forms of predictive relations are based on the following
observations:
1. Peak values of strong motion parameters are usually lognormally
distributed.
2. Earthquake magnitude M is typically defined as the logarithm of some peak
ground motion parameter Y. Thus M proportional to ln Y
3. The spreading of stress waves as they travel away from the earthquake
source attenuates the body wave and surface wave amplitudes
4. The area over which the fault rupture occurs, increases with increase in the
earthquake magnitude. Thus the effective distance R increases with the
earthquake magnitude
5. The material damping decreases the ground motion amplitudes with
distance exponentially
6. Ground motion parameters may be influenced by source characteristics like
type of fault or the site characteristics like the type of soil and topography
of the region. 67
Typical Predictive relationship
Campbell (1981) used worldwide data to obtain a relationship for the
mean PHA for sites within 50 km of fault rupture in magnitude 5.0 to 7.7
earthquakes as:
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Predictive (Attenuation) Relationships
Ground Motion Parameter
1) Basin Effects
2) Site Response Effects
3) Fault Type
4) Fault geometry
5) Hanging Wall/ Foot Wall
6) Main and after shock effects
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Example Problem
The strong motion data of an earthquake recorded for 3 seconds near epicenter with a
sampling interval of 0.1 sec is given in the table below. Plot acceleration-time history of the
earthquake. Find out PHA, PVA, vmax, maximum displacement, bracketed duration,
predominant period, sustained maximum acceleration (peaks need not be successive)
and local magnitude of the earthquake [ML = log10 A (A in micrometers)]. Comment on the
intensity of this earthquake and expected hazards.
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Solution
0.60
PHA = 0.49 g
PVA = 2/3 PHA = 0.327 g
0.50 Bracketed duration = 2.7-0.3 = 2.4 sec
vmax = 48.31cm/sec
predominant period = 2 p vmax/amax = 0.63 sec
0.40 (amax = 0.49 g = 480.69 cm/sec2)
sustained max. acceleration ( 3cycle) = 0.2 g (3rd
highest)
0.30 maximum displacement = 35.04 cm
0.20
0.10
0.05 g
0.00
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0.05 g 3.5
-0.10
2nd exceedence of
1st exceedence of
-0.20
-0.30 2
1 cycle
-0.40
3
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Exercise Problems
1. If an earthquake is recorded at four equally spaced locations along a
straight line, show the variation of all the following parameters along
the straight line if the epicenter lies on the straight line, dividing it into
two equal parts
(a) Magnitude (b) PHA (c) Duration (d) Predominant period
2. Obtain the time-acceleration response for any earthquake.
Determine the bracketed duration, predominant period and Arias
intensity
3. Download the software Seismosignal, which is a freeware. Analyze
any earthquake record in the program and obtain all possible ground
motion parameters.
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Recommended Reading
Kramer (1996) Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering, Prentice Hall.
Iyengar, R.N. and Raghu kanth, S.T.G. (2004) Attenuation of Strong Ground
Motion in Peninsular India. Seismological Research Letters, 75(4), 530-540
Sharma, M. L. (2000) Attenuation relationship for estimation of peak ground
vertical acceleration using data from strong motion arrays in India. 12th World
conference on Earthquake Engineering, New Zealand, 1964/ 4 / A, pp1-8.
Stein, S. and Wysession, M. (2003). An introduction to seismology, earthquakes,
and earth structure, Blackwell Science.
http://webshaker.ucsd.edu/homework/Ground_motion_parameters.pdf
Download free software for the estimation of ground motion parameters :
http://www.seismosoft.com/SeismoSignal-2016-Release-1
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Seismic Hazard Analysis
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Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismic hazard analysis is concerned with getting an
estimate of the strong-motion parameters at a site for
the purpose of earthquake resistant design or seismic
safety assessment.
For generalized applications, seismic hazard analysis can
also be used to prepare macro or micro zoning maps
of an area by estimating the strong-motion parameters
for a closely spaced grid of sites.
Seismic hazard analysis can be done in two ways
1. Deterministic seismic hazard Analysis (DSHA)
2. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA)
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Seismic Hazard Analysis
DSHA
In the deterministic approach, the strong-motion
parameters are estimated for the maximum
credible earthquake, assumed to occur at the
closest possible distance from the site of interest,
without considering the likelihood of its
occurrence during a specified exposure period.
PSHA
Probabilistic approach integrates the effects of all the
earthquakes expected to occur at different
locations during a specified life period, with the
associated uncertainties and randomness taken
into account.
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
The DSHA approach uses the known seismic sources
sufficiently near the site and available historical seismic
and geological data to generate discrete, single-valued
events or models of ground motion at the site.
Characterization
Definition of source geometry
Establishment of earthquake potential
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Site 83
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Site
Source
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
Parametric definition
Peak acceleration - usually ~0.05g
Spectral acceleration - at fundamental period, if known
Other parameters
Use predictive (attenuation) relationship to determine distance of
interest
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
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Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
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Determination of source-site distance
M1 M3
M2
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Selection of controlling earthquake
Empirical correlations
Rupture length correlations
Rupture area correlations
Maximum surface displacement correlations
“Theoretical” determination
Slip rate correlations
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Active Fault
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Magnitude Indicators
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Magnitude Indicators
Scatter inherent in databases used by Wells and
Coppersmith (1994) in developing the correlations.
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Magnitude Indicators
Comparison of several empirical relationships used to
find the maximum magnitude from
(a) the fault rupture length and (b) the fault rupture
area
Diagonal lines in figure correspond to the equation. Data points represent actual
earthquakes 95
Historic Seismicity
Major tectonic
features and the
distribution of
epicenters of
available data on
past earthquakes
in a typical
segment of the
Himalayan region
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“Theoretical” Determination of Mmax
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Selection of controlling earthquake
Decision should be based on ground motion parameters of
greatest interest
• Consider all sources
• Assume Mmax occurs at Rmin for each source
• Compute ground motion parameter(s) based on Mmax
and Rmin
• Determine critical value(s) of ground motion
parameter(s)
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Selection of controlling earthquake
R3
R1
M1 M3
R2
M2
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Selection of controlling earthquake
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Selection of controlling earthquake
Predictive relationships are used to estimate the ground motion
parameter (Y).
Most commonly used ground motion parameter is PHA
Typical predictive relationship for PHA (Cornell, 1979)
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Selection of controlling earthquake source
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Hazard Estimation from Mmax and R
Peak acceleration
Spectral accelerations
Duration
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Steps in DSHA: Summary
R3
R1
M3 M1 M3
M1
R2
M2 M2
(i)
(ii)
Y1
Y
2
Y .
.
Yn
105
(iii) (iv)
Deterministic seismic hazard analysis
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Example:
Theoretical Determination of Mmax for
Himalayas
From west to east, the entire Himalaya has a length of
about 2500 km, and the width of the associated
seismic source is about 100 km.
The source of major earthquakes along the Himalaya
has been postulated as a gently dipping detachment
plane, north of the main boundary fault (MBF), at a
depth of about 20 to 30 km.
Thus, the total rupture plane of the Himalaya has an
area A of about 2.5 x 105 km2.
The shear modulus, µ for the Himalayan rocks can be
taken as 34 GPa (3.4 x 1011 dyne/cm2).
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Theoretical Determination of Mmax for Himalayas
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Example Problem
The site shown in the Figure below is located near four active faults.
Fault A is a normal fault, faults B and C are strike-slips faults and
fault D is a reverse fault. The coordinates of the site and faults given
in the figure are in km. Assuming that only linear segment can
rupture in an individual event, determine the anticipated peak
acceleration at the site.
Magnitude Indicators
Empirical relationships between Mw, Surface rupture
length L (km), rupture area A (km2) and maximum
surface displacement D (m)
110
Example Problem
Using DSHA compute the PHA for the site below. Use the
following attenuation relationship.
Source 3, Mmax= 6
site
40 km
40 km
Recommended Reading
116
Probabilities
Supongamos que la estadística
muestra que hay una correlación
entre que los partidos ganados de
la Selección Colombia y los goles
que metió el Tino cuando jugaba
de titular. Sí el Tino mete un gol,
Colombia tiene 50% de
“probabilidad” de ganar. Sí hace
dos goles, 60%; y si hace tres
goles 70%. Sí al Tino lo echan por
cochino, la probabilidad baja a
25%. Sí no hace goles, de 50%.
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Además, las estadísticas futboleras muestran que
cuando el Tino se enfrenta a Chilavert (Mostro
Arquero de Paraguay), tiene las siguientes
“probabilidades”:
Echan = 20%
Sin goles = 20%
Un gol = 30%
Dos Goles = 15%
Tres Goles = 10%
DSHA PSHA
Assumes single scenario Assumes many scenarios
Selects single magnitude for Considers all magnitudes
each seismic source associated with all seismic
sources
Selects the closest distance Considers all possible
between the source and site distances between source
and site
Assumes effects due to Considers all effects
magnitude and distance
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Why PSHA?
Because there is lot of
uncertainty involved in the
time of occurrence,
magnitude and size of the
earthquakes
Source
Site
Source to site
distance depends on
where rupture occurs
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Source
Site
Source to site
distance depends on
where rupture occurs
Probability Distribution Function
l
rmin dl Lf
r source
For linear source shown, the r+dr
probability of earthquake to site
occur on the small segment of
the fault between L=l and L=l+dl
is same as the probability that it
occurs between R=r and R=r+dr
fR(r)
125
Probability Distribution Function
l
rmin
r dl Lf source
r+dr
site
r
rmin rmax
126
Probability Distribution Function
rmax
Create histogram of source
to site distance. Accuracy
increases with increasing
number of segments
Probability Distribution
For example if we roll a single die, the probability we roll a 2 = 1/6
We usually write this in "short-hand" as Pr (2) = 1/6
So, Pr (even number) = 3/6 or 1/2
If we toss a single coin, Pr(heads) = 1/2
If we toss two coins, Pr (exactly 2 heads) = 1/4
For any event like this, we can draw a probability histogram, which
is simply a picture that shows all the possible outcomes and their
corresponding probabilities.
For a single roll of a die, the probability histogram looks like:
1/6
1 2 3 4 5 6 129
Probability Histogram
For the number of heads in a toss of two coins, the
probability histogram is:
1/2
1/4
No heads 0 1 2
130
Probability Histogram
Uncertainty in source to site distance:
NM log N M
M M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
log M
log M
log M
10a
Gutenberg-Ritcher log TR
Recurrence Law 0
M
log λM = a-bM
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Where n = exp [a – m0) and a a ln (10 )and b ln (10 ) 141
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Bounded G-R
logλm Recurrence Law
Mmax M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Paleoseismic investigations
Show similar displacements in each earthquake
Individual faults produce characteristic earthquakes
Characteristic earthquake occur at or near Mmax
Could be caused by geologic constraints
More research, field observations needed
143
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Distribution of earthquake magnitudes
Characteristic Earthquake Recurrence Law
Seismicity data
Geologic data
Mmax M
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Predictive relationships
Standard error –use to evaluate conditional probability
ln Y
P[Y > Y*l M=M*, R=R*]
Y=Y*
lnY
M=M*
R=R* log R
145
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Predictive relationships
Standard error –use to evaluate conditional probability
ln Y
R=R* log R
146
Recommended Reading
148
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process- describes number of occurrences of an
event during a given time interval or spatial region.
1. The number of occurrences in one time interval are
independent of the number that occur in any other time
interval.
2. Probability of occurrence in a very short time interval
is proportional to length of interval.
3. Probability of more than one occurrence in a very
short time interval is negligible.
149
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
m ne m
P[N n]
n!
where n is the number of occurrences and μ is the
average number of occurrences in the time interval of
interest.
150
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
Poisson process
Letting μ= λt
P[N n]
t n e t
n!
Then
P[ N 0] P[ N 1] P[ N 2] P[ N 3] .....P[ N ]
=1- P[N=0]
=1- e-λt
151
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
152
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
ln(1 P)
t
153
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Temporal uncertainty
Then, the annual rate of exceedance for an event with a 10%
probability of exceedance in 50 yrs is
ln(1 0.1)
0.0021
50
154
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Summary of uncertainties
Magnitude pdf
Size fM(m)
155
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Total Probability
B2 B3 Theorem
B1
A BB
B4 B5
156
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
157
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
where
158
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
159
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
160
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Y = Y*
ln Y
r1 r2 log R
r3
rN
162
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Combining uncertainties-
probability computations Seismic hazard curve shows the
mean annual rate of exceedance of
a particular ground motion
parameter. A seismic hazard curve
is the ultimate result of a PSHA.
log λamax
log TR
amax
163
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Using seismic hazard curves
Combining uncertainties-probability
computations
Contribution of sources
Can break λ values down into
contributions from each source.
Plot seismic hazard curves for each
Total
source and total seismic hazard
curve (equal to sum of source
log λamax
curves)
log TR
amax
164
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Special accelerations
log TR
Other
Choose desired λ value
Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
165
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Contribution of sources
Can develop seismic hazard curves
for different ground motion
parameters
Peak acceleration
log λamax
Special accelerations
log TR
Other
Choose desired λ value
Read corresponding parameter
values from seismic hazard curves
amax, Sa
166
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Disaggregation (De-aggregation)
Common question:
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond
to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 Total hazard
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 includes contributions
from all combinations
50km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 of
M&R
75km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02
What magnitude & distance does that amax value correspond to?
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Total hazard includes
25km 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 contributions from all
combinations of M & R.
50km 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02
Break hazard down into
75km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.02 contributions to “see
where hazard is coming
100km 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.02 from.”
125km 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01 M=7.0 at R=75km
169
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
170
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
m Model Distribution Mmax
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
171
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Model Distribution Mmax
m
7.0 (0.2)
Sum of weighing factors G-R 7.2 (0.6)
coming out of each
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
node must equal 1.0
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
172
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
Attenuation Magnitude
Model Distribution Mmax
m
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S 0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
173
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
m
Attenuation Magnitude
Model Distribution Mmax
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
BJF
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5) Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
7.0 (0.2)
G-R 7.2 (0.6)
(0.7) 7.5 (0.2)
A&S 0.5x0.7x0.2 = 0.07
7.0 (0.2)
(0.5)
Char 7.2 (0.6)
(0.3) 7.5 (0.2)
174
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Logic tree methods
175
Recommended Reading
176
Exercise Problems in PSHA
177
Problem 1
The hypothetical vertical fault segment shown in Fig.1 is represented as a quarter-
circle. On the same graph, plot histograms of expected epicentral distance for
motions at site A and site B assuming:
(a) Earthquakes are equally likely to occur at any point on the fault segment.
(b) Earthquakes are twice as likely to occur at the midpoint of the fault segment as
at either end and the likelihood is linearly distributed between the midpoint
and the ends.
Site B
12km
Fault
Fig 1 N
30km
Site A
30km 12km 178
Problem 2
3-4 1800
4-5 150
5-6 11
>6 1
179
Problem 3
The seismicity of a particular region is described by the Gutenberg-Ritcher
recurrence law:
log λm=4.0-0.7M
(b) What is the probability that exactly one earthquake of magnitude greater
than 7.0 will occur in a 10-year period? In a 50 year period? In a 250-year
period?
180
Problem 4
Using given seismic hazard curve, estimate the probability of exceeding
amax = 0.3g in a 50 year period and in 500 years period
log λamax
log TR
0.001
amax
181
Problem 5
Using seismic hazard curve, estimate the peak acceleration that has 10%
probability of being exceeded in a 50 yr period.
Combining uncertainties-probability computations
log λamax
0.0021 log TR
183
Wave Propagation Theories
Flexural Vibration
(Surface waves)
Particle
movemen
t
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
Dynamic equilibrium of
element requires
x 2u
x0 dx A x0 A Adx
x t 2
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
dx
Cross-sectional Area = A
Young’s modulus = E
Poisson’s ratio = n
Density =
Wave propagation velocity = vp
Vp = sqrt (M/)
M = Constrained modulus
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
x 0
x0 dx
xo = x (x0 , x
t)
M
vp p wave velocity
u
x Mx , x
x
Stress-strain Strain-
relationship displacement
relationship
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
, E n, A
dx
x 0
xo = x (x0 , t) x0 dx
x
u= u (x0 , t) u
u dx
x
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
x 0
x0 dx
xo = x (x0 , t) x
x u 2
x0 dx A x 0 A A dx 2
x t
x 2u
2
x t
stresses displacements
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
x u 2
x dx A x 0 A Adx 2
x t
Simplifying and expressing stress in terms of
displacement, we get one dimensional wave equation
as
x 2u
x t 2
2u 2 2
u
vp
t 2 x 2
Constrained Modulus M
dx
Cross-sectional Area = A
xx =1/E [xx – nyy – n zz ]
Young’s modulus = E
Poisson’s ratio = n
yy =1/E [yy – nxx – n zz ] Density =
Wave propagation velocity = vp
zz =1/E [zz – nxx – n yy ] vp = sqrt (M/ )
M = Constrained modulus
yy and zz are zero for constrained conditions
M = xx/ xx
xx = M xx = M u/ x
x 2u
x t 2
2u 2u 2u M 2u
M ;
x 2 t 2 t 2 x 2
2u 2 2
u
vp
t 2 x 2 M
vp
Longitudinal waves in infinitely long rod
x 0
x0 dx
xo = x (x0 , t) x
M
vp
x 0
x0 dx
xo = x (x0 , t) x
x 2u
2
x t
u
x Mx , x
x
1 n
M E
1 n (1 2n )
2u M 2u 2u 2 u
2
or vp 2
t 2
x 2 t 2
x
Torsional waves in an infinitely long rod
Tx0 d
Tx0+( T/ x) dx
dx
own axis.
The particle motion is T 2
Tx0 dx Tx0 J dx
x t 2
constrained to planes
perpendicular to the direction Where J = Polar moment of
of wave propagation. inertia of the rod about its axis
For a bar of constant cross- T GJ
section, the equation of motion x
here is T 2
J
2 G 2 2
x t 2
v s2
t 2 x 2 x 2
Torsional waves in an infinitely long rod
T 2
Tx 0 dx Tx0 J dx
x t 2
T 2
J
x t 2
Torque Rotation
Torsional waves in an infinitely long rod
T 2
Tx 0 dx Tx 0 J dx
x t 2
T 2
J
x t 2
T GJ
x
2 G 2 2
2
vs
t 2 x 2 x 2
2u 2 2u T = 2p/
vp
1 D wave equation: t 2 x 2
u
Solution for the above equation can be expressed as t
u (x, t) = A cos (t – k x) + B cos (t + k x)
First and seconds terms represent harmonic waves
u
propagating in positive and negative x directions respectively
k = wave number = /v x
= 2p/k
The same solution can be written using complex notation
u ( x , t ) C e i ωt kx D e i wt kx
Recommended Reading
http://geo.cv.nctu.edu.tw/EngGeo/download/Seismic_Wav
e_Propagation1D.pdf
http://octavia.ce.washington.edu/drlayer/theory/T-Basic-
Concepts.html
203
Lecture-20
204
Solution of 1D wave equation
2u 2
2 u T = 2p/
1 D wave equation: 2
vp
2
t x u
Solution for the above equation can be expressed as t
u (x, t) = A cos (t – k x) + B cos (t + k x)
First and seconds terms represent harmonic waves
propagating in positive and negative x directions u
respectively x
= 2p/k
k = wave number = /v
The same solution can be written using complex
notation
u ( x , t ) C e i ωt kx D e i wt kx
Waves in semi-infinite body
For waves whose motion is concentrated in a shallow zone near the
free surface (surface waves), earth is idealized as semi-infinite body
with planar free surface.
Plane wave
y
xy
yz
xy
zy
x
zx xz
z
x xy xz
Xb 0
x y z
xy y yz
Yb 0
x y z
xz yz z
Zb 0
x y z
Strain Displacement
x 1 n n n 0 0 0 x
n 1 n n 0 0 0
y y
z E n n 1 n 0 0 0 z
(12n)
xy (1 n)(1 2n) 0 0 0 2 0 0 xy
yz 0 0 0 0
(12n)
2 0 yz
(12 n)
zx 0 0 0 0 0 2 zx
E
Note :G
2(1 n )
Stress-Strain Relationships
For isotropic, linear elastic material,
3 2 m
E m
m
2m
K
3
G m
n
2 m
What determines the angle of the refraction into the rock-2 layer ?
T
Derivation of
0 λ1 T Snell’s Law
1
Ѳ Ѳ
v1 1A
Ѳ B
v2 Ѳ1 Ѳ1 Ѳ
2
2 2
sin(1 ) v1 1
λ2
T
sin( 2 ) v2 2
T
0
1
sin(1 ) sin( 2 ) sin(1 ) sin( 2 )
sin(1 ) 1 AB 1
AB sin(1 ) 1 2 v1 v2
sin( 2 ) 2
AB 2
AB sin( ) 2 v1 f * 1 v2 f * 2
The ratios of the velocities and wavelengths and sin(angles) are all equal.
Otherwise, the wavefield would ‘tear’ apart.
Tracing rays using Snell’s Law in multiple layer medium
r1 sin(1 ) r2 sin(2 )
v1 v2
Note that the angle at the top and
the bottom of a spherical shell are
NOT the same. This is because the
‘layers’ are curved.
Transmitted SV
wave
Reflected SV
wave
Incident SV
wave
SV wave: S-waves polarized in the
vertical plane
Waves in layered body
Transmitted SH
wave
Reflected SH
wave
Incident SH
wave
SH wave: S-waves polarized in the
horizontal plane
Waves in layered body
Inclined waves
Refracted SV wave
Refracted P wave
Reflected P wave
Incident P wave Reflected SV wave
Waves in layered body
Inclined waves
Refracted SV wave
Refracted P wave
Reflected P wave
Incident SV Reflected SV wave
wave
Waves in layered body
Inclined waves
Refracted SH wave
Material Damping
Radiation Damping
Attenuation of stress waves
Material Damping
Radiation Damping
232