University of Management and Technology

Resource person: Gulraiz Nasim Ch Introduction to statistics

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Lecture # 20 Section:

Chapter # 4
Introduction to Probability
Exhaustive Events:
Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of mutually exclusive events is the
entire sample space S.

 The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪B, is the event containing
all the elements that belong to A or B or both. Let A = {a, b, c} and B = {b, c, d, e}; then
A∪B = {a, b, c, d, e}.
Question # 1:
Let P be the event that an employee selected at random from an oil drilling company smokes
cigarettes. Let Q be the event that the employee selected drinks alcoholic beverages. What will
be the P U Q?

Equally Likely Events:

Two events A and B are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as the
other. In other words each event should occur in equal number in repeated trials. For example,
when a fair coin is tossed the head is likely to appear as the tail, and proportion of times each
side is expected to appear is ½.

Possibility and Probability

Whether it will rain or not are chances but if we say that there 30% chances of rain then this 30%
is probability. Similarly, if a customer is satisfied or not with our services then these are
possibilities. But if we say that there 80% chances that customers are satisfied with our services
then it is called Probability. Hence we can say that Numerical evaluation of possibility is called
probability.
This concept was come from gamblers who approached Mathematicians to give them optimum
methods to get win. Some of the mathematicians providing these strategies were Pascal, Leibniz,
Fermat, and James Bernoulli. As a result of this development of probability theory, statistical
inference, with all its predictions and generalizations, has branched out far beyond games of
chance to encompass many other fields associated with chance occurrences, such as politics,
business, weather forecasting, and scientific research. For these predictions and generalizations
to be reasonably accurate, an understanding of basic probability theory is essential.
What do we mean when we make the statement “Moiz will probably win the tennis match,” or “I
have a fifty-fifty chance of getting an even number when a die is tossed,” or “University is not
likely to win the football game tonight,” or “Most of our graduating class will likely be married
within 3 years”? In each case, we are expressing an outcome/result of which we are not certain,
but owing to past information or from an understanding of the structure of the experiment, we
have some degree of confidence in the validity of the statement.
Properties of Probabilities
 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1, where A is an event.
Probabilities lie within the range of 0 to 1. That is, neither it can be negative nor can exceed
to 1.
 ∑ (𝑆)= 1
Sum of all probabilities of a certain random experiment should always be equal to 1.

 If A and B are Mutually Exclusive Events then P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)

Probability of an Event:
Let A be the event
𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
P (A) = 𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

Example #1
A coin is tossed twice. Find the probability that

a) Head appears on all coins

b) Head and tail appear
c) Tail appear on all coin

Solution:
First step:
Prepare sample space S. You can prepare sample space using tree diagram or using other method
S= {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Second step:
Define Event.
Let A be the event that head will appear on all coins
A= {HH}

Third step:
Find out probability
 𝑭𝒂𝒗𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔
P (A) = P (A) =1/4
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑶𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔

Similarly do for part b and c.

Practice Exercise for Events

Question # 1
Two fair dices are thrown. A prize is won if the total is 10. Find the probability of win.
Question # 2
A coin is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting two heads and one tail.
Question # 3
A fair dice is thrown. Find the probability that the number is
a) Bigger than 3
b) Bigger than or equal to 3
c) Even Number
d) Odd Number
e) Prime Number
f) Even number but greater than 4
g) Prime Number but greater than 2
Question # 4
Two fair dices are thrown. Find the probability that
a) Total is 7
b) Total is at least 8
c) Total is a prime number
d) the two scores are same.
e) At least one of the score is 6
f) exactly one of the score is 6.
Question # 5
If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems,
and a dictionary, what is the probability that the dictionary is selected?

Question # 6
A 20 fair sided dice has eight faces colored red, ten colored blue and two colored green.
The dice is rolled. Find the probability that bottom face is red.
Question # 7
The numbers 1, 2 … 9 are written on separate cards. The cards are shuffled and the top
one is turned over. Calculate the probability that the number on the card is prime
number.
Question # 8
A circular wheel is divided into three equal parts, numbered 1, 2 and 3 as shown in
figure. The wheel is spun twice. Each time the score is the number to which the black
arrow points. Calculate the probabilities of the following events.
a) Both score are the same as each other
b) neither score is 2

c) At least one of the score is a 3

d) Neither the score is 2 but both are same.
Question # 9
A dice with 6-faces has been made from brass and aluminum and is not fair. The
probability of 6 is ¼, the probabilities of 2, 3, 4, and 5 are each 1/6 and the probability
of 1 is 1/12. The dice is rolled once. Find the probability of even number.

Rule of permutation and Combination:

Permutation
Permutation is an ordered arrangement of a number of elements of a set.

Explanation: if the order do matter then we have a permutation. One could say that a permutation
is an ordered combination .The number of permutations of n objects taken r at a time is determined
by the following formula: n Pr

n!
n
Pr 
(n  r)!

n! is read n factorial and means all numbers from 1 to n multiplied e.g.

5! =5⋅4⋅3⋅2⋅1

This is read five factorial.

0! Is defined as 1. 0! =1
Example #1
A club consists of four members. How many sample points are in the sample space where three
officers: president, secretary and treasurer are to be chosen?
Solution:

It is evident that the order in which 3 officers are to be chosen is of significance. Thus there are 4
choices for the first office, 3 choices for second office, 2 choices for the third office. Hence the
number of sample points is 4*3*2=24.

n!
In other words its permutation n Pr  =4!/(4-3)!=4*3*2=24
(n  r)!

Combination
Combination is an unordered arrangement of a number of elements of a set.

If the order doesn't matter then we have a combination. nCr

n!
n
Cr 
r !(n  r)!

Example # 2
A three person committee is to be formed from a list of four persons.”How many sample points
are associated with the experiment”?

Solution:
Since the order in which the three persons of the committee are chosen is unimportant it is
therefore an example of a problem involving combinations.

n! 4!
So n
Cr   4
r !(n  r)! 3!(4  3)!

Example # 3
How many sample points are in the sample space when a person draws a hand of 5 cards from a
well- shuffled ordinary deck of 52 cards?

Solution: